Why You Should Believe in Buck

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have played just a handful of games in the 2021 Major League Baseball season. Among the greatest takeaways from them is that Byron Buxton is good at baseball.Sure, we’re dealing with an incredibly small sample size at this point. As of this writing, the Twins centerfielder has a whopping 14 at bats. In that run however, he’s posted a ridiculous 1.580 OPS and each of his five hits have gone for extra bases.

 

While dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, there’s two areas of focus that should be keyed in on through the first month. Both of them tie directly back to plate discipline and pitch recognition. First and foremost, it didn’t take long for Buck to correct the lunacy that was two walks in 135 plate appearances a season ago. He matched that total on Opening Day against the Brewers. A 36/2 K/BB was never going to be a sustainable level of production, and while he’s not an on-base savant, there’s plenty of opportunity there.

 

More importantly than the walks themselves is the pitches that Buxton has offered at. Through the first four games he’s played in this season, he’s registered just a 14.3% whiff rate and 28.6% chase rate. Again, we’re dealing with very small sample sizes, but the former is exactly in line with career norms (which represents a 3% decrease from 2020) and the latter is a 6% improvement. Byron has struggled when expanding the zone, as one would expect, but he’s sat on pitches this year to the tune of an insane 71.4% hard hit rate.

 

If you’ve been watching the career arch for a few years now, things we’re trending in this direction. Byron posted an .827 OPS in 2019, and then followed up with an .844 OPS last season. It’d be pretty crazy to see him finish anywhere near 1.000 on the season, but a bump to .875 or so would have him in an otherworldly class on its own.

 

During the six previous seasons Byron Buxton has competed at the Major League level he’s earned MVP votes while generating a .728 OPS and the .844 mark last season. I have been harping on him being a dark horse candidate for 2021 because any amount of offensive production above league average is going to get him noticed alongside of his defense. Everyone in the American League must overcome the generational talent that is Mike Trout, but if a player has the tools to do it, Buxton encompasses those traits.

 

For years, the question Minnesota had to answer was whether or not Buxton could contribute at a serviceable clip. He scuffled through a .672 OPS during his first four seasons and 1,074 plate appearances. Since then, however, the Georgia native owns an .859 OPS across 442 plate appearances. The question is no longer if Buxton is good, but rather to what heights he’ll reach. This is absolutely a superstar player, and it’s become more imperative than ever for the Twins to keep him on the field.

 

It really doesn’t matter what individual accolades Byron racks up, although they’ll likely be reflective of jaw-dropping production for the team. Instead, it’s more than clear that the former number one prospect in baseball is coming into his own and the entirety of Major League Baseball should be put on notice.

 

No longer is the storyline how fast Byron Buxton is, and that he plays exceptional defense. Sure, he can beat out an infield single or steal a base with ease, but he’s also going to be racking up extra-base hits, trotting in a slow jog, and doing everything at a level any other organization would covet at an unheralded level. With no extension yet in place, expect him to increase that price tag in the season ahead.

 

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[Dr. Evil]

I sure hope the fun continues for him. What an exciting player!

[D.C Twins]

It is not hyperbole to stay that he has a STRONG shot at AL MVP IF he stays healthy.

[D.C Twins]

I've said it in other posts before though....He is going to bet on himself and take it all the way to free agency....and he is going to get PAID...probably by the Evil Empire.

 

 

[Aichiman]

Please Twins, don't give him a post-MVP-season Joe Mauer type contract. The money Buxton is going to command is too much and the injury risk is too great. Either let it ride out for this year and next, or trade him next year and get something in return.  We've got Celestino primed and ready to take over full-time in two years.  He probably won't be as good as Buck; but the bucks saved will certainly work to make the team better.

 

[stringer bell]

Particularly heartening to see Buxton with hits on the right half of the field. He still isn’t going to hit many ground balls through the gaping hole between first and second. Personally I’d like to see him line a few into the right-center gap, just to see him run out a triple.

[TheLeviathan]

I believe in the young man's talent and determination and grit.

 

I am a skeptic of his ability to stay on the field to dazzle us with it.  I hope this year calms that skepticism.

[Doctor Gast]

Buck had some things to work out, like his health and swing. It seems like he has worked most of them out. He found his swing and beefed up to add durability and strength. He's confident and ready to go. Expect great things from him. Go Buck!

[rv78]

Let's see if he stays healthy for a full season and can contribute in the playoffs before we hand him the MVP Award.

[Darius]

He’s also been a slow starter, historically (when not being an all-together non-starter).

 

I think Buxton coming out of the gates hot is a significant sign of something finally clicking.

 

What an incredible talent. This is what we’ve been waiting for. Thank goodness the FO didn’t listen to all the fans who’ve wanted to sell him off over the years.

[Darius]

Please Twins, don't give him a post-MVP-season Joe Mauer type contract. The money Buxton is going to command is too much and the injury risk is too great. Either let it ride out for this year and next, or trade him next year and get something in return. We've got Celestino primed and ready to take over full-time in two years. He probably won't be as good as Buck; but the bucks saved will certainly work to make the team better.

Can’t disagree more with this take. Look at this teams record with/without Buxton in the lineup over the last 4-5 years.

 

You find a guy like him, you do not dump him out of fear of paying him.

 

It’s incredible to me. The Twins’ media machine has pumped this “spending is bad” propaganda for so long that some actively advocate for getting rid of one of the best players in baseball to save on the bottom line. I’m not sure that would fly anywhere else (Red Sox fans nearly burned Fenway to the ground when they traded Betts).

 

What are we saving the money for, if not to sign good players to hopefully win a championship?

[cHawk]

Watch him play. That’s why would should believe in him. If they trade him or let him walk, I won’t be happy.

 

Trading him seems like something Cleveland would do. I don’t want to do that. That is how you end up with a long title drought.

 

We probably should’ve extended him before the season NGL. Looks like his payday will be a lot more (~20-25 Million a year). Regardless, please extend him. He’s worth every penny

[Trov]

I think the broadcast brought up important point that Buck seems to be swinging earlier in the count and at first pitches a lot more.  Now, if the league adjusts and starts throwing more out of the zone and he chases that will be the factor on how he will do.  He is hitting well, and has come through a couple of big important hits, and his ability to beat out routine double play ball made big difference early in game. 

 

However, I worry that as season goes on teams will start throwing a ton of early out of the zone sliders that he swings at.  He has never been able to stay off of them.  I also worry that he will start to get too pull happy, which makes that off plate slider even harder to foul off.  

 

He may have a huge break out year for himself and if he does will help carry the offense.  I would like to see him not hit behind Cruz though.  I know Cruz is beating out infield hits, but why have a road block on the bases when you have the speed you do.  I know there is some merit to having Buck hit 4th as possible second lead off they go down in order in first, but how many triples will be turned into doubles because Cruz gets held at third?  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can’t disagree more with this take. Look at this teams record with/without Buxton in the lineup over the last 4-5 years.

You find a guy like him, you do not dump him out of fear of paying him.

It’s incredible to me. The Twins’ media machine has pumped this “spending is bad” propaganda for so long that some actively advocate for getting rid of one of the best players in baseball to save on the bottom line. I’m not sure that would fly anywhere else (Red Sox fans nearly burned Fenway to the ground when they traded Betts).

What are we saving the money for, if not to sign good players to hopefully win a championship?

I'm all in favor of the Twins spending money but even I have some big reservations about signing Buxton and he's my favorite player on the team right now.

 

It's pretty scary to drop hundreds of millions, almost surely losing Berrios in the process, on a guy who has played zero full seasons of baseball.

 

Being wary of Buxton doesn't necessarily correlate to cheap. If I had even a little more confidence in his ability to stay on the field, I'd be screaming at the Twins to back up the dump truck and bury him in money.

 

But, as it stands, yikes. Committing to that is pretty scary.

[gunnarthor]

Ignoring this season, Buck was already a star - the only issue is he couldn't stay healthy. Even counting his dismal 2018, he's been about a 4.5 WAR player per 162 games. I don't know if you can bet on him to stay healthy and I don't know what his agent wants, but he's the most fun player we've had in a long time. I hope he stays with the Twins for his entire career. 

 

Honestly, I'd probably pay him and if it doesn't work out, well, that's life. I won't blame the FO for locking up a talent like Buxton.

[GNess]

 

Ignoring this season, Buck was already a star - the only issue is he couldn't stay healthy. Even counting his dismal 2018, he's been about a 4.5 WAR player per 162 games. I don't know if you can bet on him to stay healthy and I don't know what his agent wants, but he's the most fun player we've had in a long time. I hope he stays with the Twins for his entire career. 

 

Honestly, I'd probably pay him and if it doesn't work out, well, that's life. I won't blame the FO for locking up a talent like Buxton.

 

Agree with all the pay Buxton posts. If the Twins want to compete at highest level of MLB you find a way to keep your core players even if it involves risks. (Unless you are the Rays and you twist and turn and it works out.)

[Dman]

 

Can’t disagree more with this take. Look at this teams record with/without Buxton in the lineup over the last 4-5 years.

You find a guy like him, you do not dump him out of fear of paying him.

It’s incredible to me. The Twins’ media machine has pumped this “spending is bad” propaganda for so long that some actively advocate for getting rid of one of the best players in baseball to save on the bottom line. I’m not sure that would fly anywhere else (Red Sox fans nearly burned Fenway to the ground when they traded Betts).

What are we saving the money for, if not to sign good players to hopefully win a championship?

 

How do you like watching Donaldson sitting on the bench?  Until Buxton actually plays a full season you might have your 30M per year parked there.  That is the main issue.  I love what he can do and if his hitting is for real he very well might be the best player in baseball but you can't win a world series when your best player is sitting on the bench or out half the season.  

 

The Red Sox also are not a great comp when it comes to the Twins we are closer to the Rays and A's and Cleveland's than the Red Sox and Yankee's.  If payroll were not an issue for teams then they all should outspend the Yankee's and Dodgers why don't the other 25 or so teams do that? Because every team generates a certain amount of revenue and budgets around that.

 

Don't get me wrong I get the enthusiasm but there is also reality.  The Rays made it to the World Series last year on a shoe string budget by making sound financial decisions to stay within the teams budget.  They traded away elite talent to get there but they got there. Winning isn't always about money.  It helps for sure but making sound financial investments (player production per dollar) is important too when there is a limited budget. 

 

Is Buxton a sound investment?  One with a great track record of health and production?  A player you can rely on to be there most of the time?  I think those are important questions to ask before backing up the truck.

[Darius]

Just saw an article on ESPN predicting Buxton to win AL MVP (also predicted Nelson Cruz as MVP and lead the Twins to the World Series Title and Berrios AL Cy Young in the same article).

 

Seems that the Twins are becoming a trendy pick nationally. It’s called “hot takes” in the title. So take that for what it’s worth. Just thought it was pretty cool to see the Twins getting some recognition from a national sports media outlet.

[cHawk]

I'm all in favor of the Twins spending money but even I have some big reservations about signing Buxton and he's my favorite player on the team right now.

 

It's pretty scary to drop hundreds of millions, almost surely losing Berrios in the process, on a guy who has played zero full seasons of baseball.

 

Being wary of Buxton doesn't necessarily correlate to cheap. If I had even a little more confidence in his ability to stay on the field, I'd be screaming at the Twins to back up the dump truck and bury him in money.

 

But, as it stands, yikes. Committing to that is pretty scary.

I don’t see why we can’t extend both Buxton and Berrios. Buxton probably ~20-25 Million and (at most) ~20ish Million for Berrios in the process. Could we raise payroll to ~160-170 Million?

[Darius]

How do you like watching Donaldson sitting on the bench? Until Buxton actually plays a full season you might have your 30M per year parked there. That is the main issue. I love what he can do and if his hitting is for real he very well might be the best player in baseball but you can't win a world series when your best player is sitting on the bench or out half the season.

 

The Red Sox also are not a great comp when it comes to the Twins we are closer to the Rays and A's and Cleveland's than the Red Sox and Yankee's. If payroll were not an issue for teams then they all should outspend the Yankee's and Dodgers why don't the other 25 or so teams do that? Because every team generates a certain amount of revenue and budgets around that.

 

Don't get me wrong I get the enthusiasm but there is also reality. The Rays made it to the World Series last year on a shoe string budget by making sound financial decisions to stay within the teams budget. They traded away elite talent to get there but they got there. Winning isn't always about money. It helps for sure but making sound financial investments (player production per dollar) is important too when there is a limited budget.

 

Is Buxton a sound investment? One with a great track record of health and production? A player you can rely on to be there most of the time? I think those are important questions to ask before backing up the truck.

The Rays making the World Series isn’t the rule, it’s the exception. They also lost to the biggest spenders in the MLB. We’ve seen this team set the record for most consecutive playoff losses with that approach. Cleveland and Oakland haven’t won anything. The Royals were a lightning strike that will likely never happen again....ever. If you’re OK with being n that category, more power to you. I’d like something better.

 

There’s a difference between signing an aging player like Donaldson and a guy in his prime like Buxton. If people were confident in Donaldson being a superstar going forward, he wouldn’t be here. But, honestly, I like the effort/gamble. If it doesn’t pay-off, so what? Same result as making no attempt. How have you liked watching 18 straight playoff losses because they wouldn’t make a move to get over the top?

 

I’m also not saying we should be compared to the big spenders every year...but they expect to win. And they do more often than not. If we want to consider ourselves real World Series contenders, you have to be in that conversation at least once or twice periodically, it’s a sad truth. We’re either in or we’re out. There’s no middle ground where you don’t pay for elite players and beat the teams that do. Bringing up the Royals constantly in this debate is like arguing you should buy lottery tickets as a retirement plan.

 

So just to be clear....we take the developmental route to a championships....which is almost impossible to do. But, when you finally develop the players capable of getting there, it’s better to get rid of them. Because we need to save money for something that will happen someday - something other than having a team like we have now. I’m sorry, I’m having a little trouble seeing the end-game.

 

I get being apprehensive about Buxton. But, that injury history will be factored into his contract. If he was healthy all the time and producing at this level for years, we’re talking about a Tatis-level contract. That’s never happening here. There’s nothing in the pipeline as impactful as Buxton can be.

 

If we sign him long-term and we fail, at least we went for it. I see both sides, but I’d rather go that route and fail than be perpetually mediocre because I’m afraid of a bad contract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don’t see why we can’t extend both Buxton and Berrios. Buxton probably ~20-25 Million and (at most) ~20ish Million for Berrios in the process. Could we raise payroll to ~160-170 Million?

It's possible but I think your Berrios number is low. 

 

And while payroll should definitely jump upward next season, I'm not sure it will rise enough to cover both players. 

 

I hope they do it but realistically, I doubt it will happen.

[jimbo92107]

There's definitely something different about Byron Buxton this season. He seems somehow more "complete" than before. Maybe it was the off-season of pumping iron and working on his swing. He has a look of confidence I've never seen before. Hard not to be happy the way things are going. With that huge swath of area he covers, he commands the outfield. With that powerful swing, he's pounding baseballs off into the distance like a giant. 

 

Right now we are seeing the Byron Buxton the Twins hoped he would become. A true 5-tool superstar. Let us bask in his reflected glory, and pretend we knew it all along!

[Dman]

 

The Rays making the World Series isn’t the rule, it’s the exception. They also lost to the biggest spenders in the MLB. We’ve seen this team set the record for most consecutive playoff losses with that approach. Cleveland and Oakland haven’t won anything. The Royals were a lightning strike that will likely never happen again....ever. If you’re OK with being n that category, more power to you. I’d like something better.

There’s a difference between signing an aging player like Donaldson and a guy in his prime like Buxton. If people were confident in Donaldson being a superstar going forward, he wouldn’t be here. But, honestly, I like the effort/gamble. If it doesn’t pay-off, so what? Same result as making no attempt. How have you liked watching 18 straight playoff losses because they wouldn’t make a move to get over the top?

I’m also not saying we should be compared to the big spenders every year...but they expect to win. And they do more often than not. If we want to consider ourselves real World Series contenders, you have to be in that conversation at least once or twice periodically, it’s a sad truth. We’re either in or we’re out. There’s no middle ground where you don’t pay for elite players and beat the teams that do. Bringing up the Royals constantly in this debate is like arguing you should buy lottery tickets as a retirement plan.

So just to be clear....we take the developmental route to a championships....which is almost impossible to do. But, when you finally develop the players capable of getting there, it’s better to get rid of them. Because we need to save money for something that will happen someday - something other than having a team like we have now. I’m sorry, I’m having a little trouble seeing the end-game.

I get being apprehensive about Buxton. But, that injury history will be factored into his contract. If he was healthy all the time and producing at this level for years, we’re talking about a Tatis-level contract. That’s never happening here. There’s nothing in the pipeline as impactful as Buxton can be.

If we sign him long-term and we fail, at least we went for it. I see both sides, but I’d rather go that route and fail than be perpetually mediocre because I’m afraid of a bad contract.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing not to go all in if it makes sense.  But do you really want to go all in with a player that hasn't played a full season yet in their career?  That is the larger question.

 

If you look at the last 20 years there is a big spending team pretty much every year in the world series. so you are not wrong but there are little guys sprinkled in there.  The Marlins, White Sox Indians, Royals and Astros all had middle of the road payrolls like the Twins and the Marlins, White Sox and Royals all brought home trophies. The Rockies were middle of the road as well but most of those teams had top 5 or top 10 payrolls.

 

I am not saying never keep your home grown stars to try and make a difference but I do have reservations about banking on a guy who has a history of being on the bench when needed most.

 

New York Yankees (35, 24–11) 4–0 San Diego Padres (2, 0–2)
New York Yankees (36, 25–11) 4–0 Atlanta Braves (9, 3–6)
New York Yankees (37, 26–11) 4–1 New York Mets[W] (4, 2–2)
Arizona Diamondbacks (1, 1–0) 4–3 New York Yankees (38, 26–12)
Anaheim Angels[W] (1, 1–0) 4–3 San Francisco Giants[W] (17, 5–12)
Florida Marlins[W] (2, 2–0) 4–2 New York Yankees (39, 26–13)
Boston Red Sox[W] (10, 6–4) 4–0 St. Louis Cardinals (16, 9–7)
Chicago White Sox (5, 3–2) 4–0 Houston Astros[W][L2] (1, 0–1)
St. Louis Cardinals (17, 10–7) 4–1 Detroit Tigers[W] (10, 4–6)
Boston Red Sox (11, 7–4) 4–0 Colorado Rockies[W] (1, 0–1)
Philadelphia Phillies (6, 2–4) 4–1 Tampa Bay Rays (1, 0–1)
New York Yankees (40, 27–13) 4–2 Philadelphia Phillies (7, 2–5)
San Francisco Giants (18, 6–12) 4–1 Texas Rangers (1, 0–1)
St. Louis Cardinals[W] (18, 11–7) 4–3 Texas Rangers (2, 0–2)
San Francisco Giants (19, 7–12) 4–0 Detroit Tigers (11, 4–7)
Boston Red Sox (12, 8–4) 4–2 St. Louis Cardinals (19, 11–8)
San Francisco Giants[W] (20, 8–12) 4–3 Kansas City Royals[W] (3, 1–2)
Kansas City Royals (4, 2–2) 4–1 New York Mets (5, 2–3)
Chicago Cubs (11, 3–8) 4–3 Cleveland Indians (6, 2–4)
Houston Astros (2, 1–1) 4–3 Los Angeles Dodgers (19, 6–13)
Boston Red Sox (13, 9–4) 4–1 Los Angeles Dodgers (20, 6–14)
Washington Nationals[W] (1, 1–0) 4–3 Houston Astros (3, 1–2)
Los Angeles Dodgers (21, 7–14) 4–2 Tampa Bay Rays (2, 0–2)

[Platoon]

Buxton  always has been the key to the Twins success on a daily basis. Yes, a stud SP would take over that role in a playoff series, but for the first 162 it would still have to be Buxton. He is just simply a game changer day in and day out. And the day in and day out is the problem. He hasn’t proven his ability to stay on the field for extended periods. Some seem to be chronic such as his migraines. Others self inflicted by running into a fence at full speed, at a 90 degree angle. Others tend be be simply bad luck. But the sum of these parts is that until he can stay healthy, he won’t have the impact or be worth the money that could have been. That would make for a pretty tough decision for management if he cannot change his current injury history. Even now as you watch his talent displayed, I imagine everyone has in the back of their mind, "how long before he is on the DL?"

[singlesoverwalks]

For the record - and I can't take credit for this - his nickname should be Lord Byron.

[SoCalTwinsfan]

How does that 2012 draft look right now? Buxton in the first round, second overall, Berrios was a supplemental first-round pick, 32nd overall, Duffey was in the fifth round and Rogers was in the 11th round. Has any team ever taken an MVP and a Cy Young in the draft? Could Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers all be All-Stars together? Berrios has twice been an All-Star. 2012 was the first year the Twins had a high pick after winning so much the previous decade.

[singlesoverwalks]

 

For the record - and I can't take credit for this - his nickname should be Lord Byron.

That's a 19th century poetry reference, you philistines.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Byron

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I’d prefer a contract with a nice base pay, say 15mm, with games-played incentives to increase the base.  This would be fair for Buck while protecting the Twins against major injuries.