Twins Finalize Opening Day Roster

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I probably would have kept Rooker over Garlick, but we'll see how it goes. I like Rooker, but I'm not blind to the fact that he can really struggle against breaking stuff and MLB pitching is going to figure that out quickly. But Garlick seems to be just another guy to me, whereas Rooker does have an elite skill in terms of his power. But it's a move that can be fixed easily if it goes sideways, so not a huge deal and maybe the team sees something I'm not (other than the spring training performance)

 

Astudillo is a really fun player. But he really doesn't have a defensive position; there's about 6 spots you can put him, but he's bad defensively at all of them. But as a 26th man...maybe you can accept that? I do think he's got real value as a pinch hitter in that he's a guy you can count on to put a ball in play. That can be very useful. But he hasn't shown that he can hit consistently in MLB, and needs to show that he can take some pitches. Is it better to have him on the bench or Rooker/Blankenhorn/*insert random SS who can't hit here*?

 

I'll be honest: I'm just happy they didn't carry 14 %$@&%*#%$& pitchers...

 

Kyle Garlick has 40 AAA homers in 645 AAA PA's, or a homer every 16.1 PA's (granted, in the more hitter friendly PCL).

 

Brent Rooker has 14 AAA homers in 274 AAA PA's, or a homer every 19.6 PA's

 

To quantify league impact, in 2019 there was a homer every 26.3 PA's in the PCL, compared to a homer every 30.4 PA's in the International League, so homers were 13.5% more frequent in the PCL than the IL.  However, Garlick hit homers 17.9% more frequently than Rooker.  Sure, Garlick is also older by not quite 3 years, and so was in his age 27 season, but Rooker was also in his age 24 season--he wasn't some 21 year old facing pitchers 4-5 years older than him.

 

To sum up, while I think Rooker probably has better power potential than Garlick, it's not like Garlick is Luis Arraez there.  When you also look at spring training stats (which are relevant when discussing two young players without proven MLB track records), Garlick posted a .987 OPS with 5 HR's and a 28% k rate, while Rooker was at .645 with 1 HR and a 48% k rate.  Rooker will almost assuredly get more career PA's with the Twins over his career than Garlick will in his, but starting the season with Garlick and not Rooker is a good decision, imo.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Does a platoon of Garlick and Cave in LF sound like a part of a championship team?  If not Kiriloff, if not Rooker, then Larnach.  Upside and youth.  Now if Kepler does not produce, if Buxton gets injured the OF suddenly looks subpar.  The BP has some very shaky vets.  Lets hope that everyone finds their stroke, rises to the challenges and all ST worries disappear. 

 

For their (admittedly short) careers, Garlick has an .845 OPS against lefties, and Cave has an .803 OPS against righties--call it an .820 OPS on average.  Since the beginning of 2019, amongst all outfielders with more than 400 PA's, that places 40th, ahead of such "name" players as Mike Tauchman, Whit Merrifield, Eddie Rosario, and Yasiel Puig.  It's also only .008 behind the Dodger's third best outfielder, A.J. Pollock, so give your worry about the Twins outfield above, let me ask you this--how would you characterize a Dodger's outfield where Pollock falls off an age-related cliff, and Betts gets hurt?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Astudillo has a career average of .318. Source is MLB.com.

 

That is his career Spring Training batting average (you can tell because it shows him as having AB's with ATL in 2016, and with the Twins in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

 

In reality, his career BA is .294, with a .747 OPS and a 97 wRC+.  Astudillo certainly is not a bad hitter, but he's not a particularly good one either.  That is perfectly acceptable for a guy who is 12th or 13th in your lineup, and can play 3-5 positions without being a total embarrassment, especially when he is beloved by the rest of the team and one of the positions he can not be an embarrassment at is catcher.

[stringer bell]

The last time we saw him in that type of role he posted a .678 OPS, and despite the contact skills he's never really hit for a high average either. He plays multiple defensive positions at a below average level, he doesn't draw walks to get on base, and he doesn't hit for extra bases. If he's playing 1/3 of the time then I think it actually does do some harm.

I think as the 26th player, Astudillo provides nice depth and he might have an occasional role as a pinch hitter when making contact is a high priority. I would hope the Turtle gets less than a start per week and on that topic one doesn’t want to have a younger player with upside in that role.

[Dodecahedron]

 

The last time we saw him in that type of role he posted a .678 OPS, and despite the contact skills he's never really hit for a high average either. He plays multiple defensive positions at a below average level, he doesn't draw walks to get on base, and he doesn't hit for extra bases. If he's playing 1/3 of the time then I think it actually does do some harm. 

 

By your description, it sounds like he is just like every other last-guy-on-the-roster player. He is on the roster for his versatility and his attitude, not because he's a frontline starter. If he plays regularly, it's because the starters are having trouble, which would not bode well for the team's chances. Conversely, his butt being on the bench does not hurt him or the team -- he is not a player who is gong to develop into a hall of famer if he gets more playing time.

 

This all adds up; sounds like the Twins made the right move. He fits the criteria for the role.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Exactly!

 

The guys mentioned struggled in 2020 and thus the Twins need more bats on balls and Yes - I feel right now that Garlick provides a better chance to put the ball in play than Rooker.  

 

Also - from all accounts - Garlick's defense is better as well.

 

That said I hope Garlick's stay (and eventually Cave's) is short because Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach force their way onto the roster very soon.

Garlick's awful 2020 isn't a concern though? He's also posted a K rate north of 30% in each major league stint so I'm not sure how he alleviates any perceived contact issues. Basically he doesn't seem like a viable insurance policy if you're truly worried about Kepler, Buxton, and Cave. 

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

By your description, it sounds like he is just like every other last-guy-on-the-roster player. He is on the roster for his versatility and his attitude, not because he's a frontline starter. If he plays regularly, it's because the starters are having trouble, which would not bode well for the team's chances. Conversely, his butt being on the bench does not hurt him or the team -- he is not a player who is gong to develop into a hall of famer if he gets more playing time.

 

This all adds up; sounds like the Twins made the right move. He fits the criteria for the role.

Crowing about versatility is meaningless without context. Astudillo is a below average defender at every position he plays. The Twins have 4 OFers and a super sub in Arraez. Each position on the team has a defensive backup that is more capable than Astudillo. His "versatility," isn't valuable given the current roster construction. Offensively he has zero plate discipline, doesn't hit for power, and despite his ability to put the ball in play it doesn't find a hole often enough to compensate for what the rest of his offensive game lacks. There are better ways to fill the 26th spot.

[Dodecahedron]

Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference tell the same story about Astudillo. This story is that he is an average defender -- to be clear, some Twins starters are not as good at defense as Astudillo -- and in two of his three years he was an above average hitter.

 

I appreciate that you have a strong opinion on Astudillo, but we have to be clear here that this is just your opinion. Data tells another story.