One Twins Area of Increasing Concern

[Ted Schwerzler]

Since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken over the Minnesota Twins revamped their overall pitching ability, that’s true. In 2021 though, part of the group gives me some pause.I’m actually all in on the starting rotation and it’s depth. I blogged about that group recently and think you could make an argument that the quality and depth is better than at any other point in the history of the organization. Where I become less certain is the bullpen, and that’s not a great thing given the relative uncertainty of pitcher volatility coming off a shortened season.

 

As things are presently constructed, I think there’s about seven locks for Opening Day. That group consists of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, and Caleb Thielbar. In a unit that will likely carry eight or nine arms, that’s a good stable to count on. It also looks better than a few days ago with the re-emergence of Duffey’s velocity, and the health of Thielbar’s back. That said, what happens beyond there?

 

A season ago Stashak was sent to the minor leagues despite solid numbers, and Thielbar was pitching in independent baseball. That’s not to suggest either won’t contribute effectively in 2021, but rather highlight the general unpredictability of relievers. Where things seem to get a bit dicey is on the depth from. Beyond that original Opening Day group, the next men up are tweeners that may not have a spot in the rotation. Does Lewis Thorpe really belong in the bullpen (assuming he gets a fourth option)? Is Randy Dobnak not better served staying stretched out at Triple-A? What about Devin Smeltzer?

 

Organizations would prefer not to have pitching prospects be destined for relief roles, but that was very much the case for Jorge Alcala. He looked the part and has performed well since entering a Major League bullpen. Short of Edwar Colina being inserted again rather than staying on a starting track, there just isn’t that type of arm ready to contribute. Beyond that, a group of veterans will look to be the next men up waiting in St. Paul. Brandon Waddell, Derek Law, Shaun Anderson, Ian Gibault, Glenn Sparkman, and Ian Hamilton all were brought in by the Twins this offseason. Many of them have similar offerings, and none of them have incredibly high ceilings. Replacing the departed Matt Wisler would seem to be their biggest value.

 

In any normal season I think it’s fair to suggest that pitching depth might be the thing that separates the haves from the have nots. In 2021, I think that gap could widen even more as traditional workloads are attempted to be restored. You aren’t going to have a bullpen that eight deep in stellar arms, but when there was concern regarding just two guys, the group looked plenty thin.

 

Arms are still available although the Twins appear to be done making pacts. Shane Greene somehow is unsigned, and Jeremy Jeffress is involved in a saga entirely perplexing on its own. I don’t know that Minnesota needs to be running to the table with offers, but it couldn’t hurt to see which other veterans don’t make their respective clubs when camps break. It’s the contingency plans that have Minnesota well supported in the rotation and all over the field, developing a few more out of the pen would be a good idea.

 

At the end of the day this is an organization that produced the third overall bullpen in terms of fWAR in 2020, and that represented the second straight year of doing so. After being a bottom third group prior, it’s more than clear the developmental staff and front office are aligned with the pieces and process at their disposal. Let’s just hope that it works out in their favor once again.

 

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[Dman]

Relievers are a volatile commodity so it is hard to ever feel comfortable with that group.  The FO certainly deservers the benefit of the doubt given how the pen has performed the past couple of years but they did lose a lot of talent this past year.   

 

Trevor May was excellent out of the pen the last three years and how quickly he was signed and the money he got proves other teams liked what they saw.  Maybe Alcala can take over his role of hard throwing dominant righty but it is a high bar.

 

Romo was essentially replaced by Colome and given Romo's failures last year it could be a slight upgrade.  Clippard pitched well last year.  Far from dominant K wise but he was a solid option.  Robles has been all over the place and looks like a down grade at this point granted it is just spring but he has looked very hittable to this point.  No one is going to beat Wislers numbers from last year not even Wisler but again that is high bar for someone to step in and come close to.

 

So yeah I am not feeling as bullish on the pen this year.  Colina seemed a mess last year and despite that great slider got hit hard.  Chalmers has trouble throwing strikes and we haven't even seen him or Ober this spring. So have to believe the FO doesn't trust those 40 man space eaters with MLB innings.  Shaun Anderson has been a disaster so far this spring no way they trust him and Smeltzer gives up hits and walks like he wants to be friends with the opposing team.  Those two are also sucking up 40 man spots and seem unlikely to help anytime soon if ever.  So yeah I agree I don't see them being in the best shape without Thorpe and Dobnak coming out of the pen.

 

The two guys that have been most impressive to me this spring haven't been really tested and are not on the 40 man.  Derek Law and Luke Ferrell both have pitches that move and both have 6 K's in about 4 innings of work.  Small sample size I know but they have been the most consistent and best of the bunch so far.  The Twins need to put them up against better competition to see what they have.

 

There's not really room on the 40 man so I guess it would take an injury or poor performances by Smeltzer or Robles to find room as almost everyone else seems too important to risk losing.  So hard to say if Law or Ferrell can find a way on no matter how well they perform but they appear to the best two guys left.  Hamilton and Waddell have had good moments as well but not sure they would be trusted or not at this point either.

 

Hopefully there is vast improvement ahead for Anderson, Colina and Chalmers or some tough decision might need to made if guys don't perform.

[jkcarew]

You’re worried about the #8 and #9 guys in the bullpen? Even if we had 9 all-stars in the bullpen...ranging from HOF’er to guy having really good year...the #8 and #9 would still never see enough leverage to matter more than maybe a game in the regular season and zero in the post season. There will always be blowouts, there will always be planned and unplanned off days, there will always be days when the staff only has to cover 8 innings. IMO, much better to worry...always, and no matter what, this year included...about how the top guys perform. Also, IMO, if the Twins are on track for the post-season, it’s a no-brained to use starting depth in the bullpen if the middle or bottom really do break that horrifically (or they become ‘openers’). But again, nothing’s going to save you if the top end breaks.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I don't see it. I count 5 or so guys that could fill out the 8th spot competently, and none of them are named Smeltzer

[Dman]

 

You’re worried about the #8 and #9 guys in the bullpen? Even if we had 9 all-stars in the bullpen...ranging from HOF’er to guy having really good year...the #8 and #9 would still never see enough leverage to matter more than maybe a game in the regular season and zero in the post season. There will always be blowouts, there will always be planned and unplanned off days, there will always be days when the staff only has to cover 8 innings. IMO, much better to worry...always, and no matter what, this year included...about how the top guys perform. Also, IMO, if the Twins are on track for the post-season, it’s a no-brained to use starting depth in the bullpen if the middle or bottom really do break that horrifically (or they become ‘openers’). But again, nothing’s going to save you if the top end breaks.

 

Totally agree if the top end breaks it is too much to overcome.  Call me a worry wart but I still don't trust Rogers and while I know Colome has the numbers seeing him get hit hard makes me wonder.  Robles whatever he had it appears to be lost.  Duffy hasn't been good this spring yet granted it sounds like he hasn't ramped up yet but still I can see issues at the top.  I know it just spring and these guys aren't even that worried about their stuff yet but it still makes me worry.

[dbminn]

Colina will probably be fine. He pitched a grand total of one-third inning last year. Beyond that, I believe Canterino will be called up if back-end relievers are injured. He will be stretched out in the minors, but I don't think the FO will hesitate if we lose key relievers for more than a few weeks. He has better command than all of the RP mentioned except maybe Law.

[USAFChief]

You’re worried about the #8 and #9 guys in the bullpen? Even if we had 9 all-stars in the bullpen...ranging from HOF’er to guy having really good year...the #8 and #9 would still never see enough leverage to matter more than maybe a game in the regular season and zero in the post season. There will always be blowouts, there will always be planned and unplanned off days, there will always be days when the staff only has to cover 8 innings. IMO, much better to worry...always, and no matter what, this year included...about how the top guys perform. Also, IMO, if the Twins are on track for the post-season, it’s a no-brained to use starting depth in the bullpen if the middle or bottom really do break that horrifically (or they become ‘openers’). But again, nothing’s going to save you if the top end breaks.

First, my worry starts much higher than the 8th spot in the pen.

 

Second, one injury and number 8 is now number 7, etc etc.

 

And third, every reliever will pitch meaningful innings over the course of the season. It's the nature of MLB. You can't plan on only using the top half of your pen when games are close. Doesn't work out that way.

 

I have serious concern about this bullpen being good enough to win the ALC, much less the WS.

[Brandon]

The good news is we can always make a trade if more depth is needed.  I do think Colina is a solid option at some point this year.  Some times it takes a pitcher a few times up to figure out how to compete and the top level.  Also as the year progresses we may be able to call up others such as Jax or Balazovich or Duran.  So its not like we are devoid of options for the last spot in the pen.  I would like us to have one more quality reliever but I guess we are out of available funds for now.  So we go with what we have.

 

[h2oface]

I'm way past due on seeing home grown, home drafted, farm developed pitching wow the show. It is, after all, the calling card that Falvey (and Levine) came with. Talk talk talk.... when do we eat. How long is it going to take? This is now the 5th year..... 4 drafts. Must be soon, now, right?

 

Lots of trades and free agents..... bring on the farm.

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

 

I'm way past due on seeing home grown, home drafted, farm developed pitching wow the show. It is, after all, the calling card that Falvey (and Levine) came with. Talk talk talk.... when do we eat. How long is it going to take? This is now the 5th year..... 4 drafts. Must be soon, now, right?

 

Lots of trades and free agents..... bring on the farm.

When you consider that baseball players typically reach top form between the ages of 25 and 30 and that players are drafted at age 18-22 with international signees being even younger I figure that it should take at least 3 years for Falvine's players to begin to have some impact and up to 12 years for them to dominate the roster. Also keep in mind it takes some time to assemble a strong scouting and player development staff. Being a baseball fan is not for the impatient.

[Major League Ready]

How many people thought Wisler was an important addition? We have a couple additions with at least as much ceiling as Wisler. We also don't know how the prospects looked last year. Therefore, we don't know how they fit into the plan. The FO might be confident that a couple prospects are ready to contribute. Canterino and his improved velocity might start out in the pen. Perhaps they have made the decision to use Colina in the BP at least to start. Chalmers could also be a factor if he managed to improved his command during his time in St. Paul.

 

I would much rather see them establish a prospect or prospects than go with what's left on the FA market.

[mikelink45]

After watching a number of different teams in ST I have been impressed with many young arms and join others in their concern about lack of big arms in our system to fill these slots rather than reconstructing players who have failed in other systems.  

 

Maybe some geek will rewrite a book showing how RP break down and that SP going 7 innings again would be better. 

[Doctor Gast]

The philosophy of the staff is transforming rejected pitchers that fit their profile into successful pitchers. That transformation takes time and we need to be patient. Some take to it pretty quick others not so quick yet some don't. That's why they select so many. Still Clippard would have given us some early comfort. I think Dobnak has shown that he belongs on the starting rotation. We need a lot of long relief this year so Thorpe and any others will get a lot of work. So I wouldn't worry yet but I see your concern.

[Harrison Greeley III]

People freaked out about the bullpen daily on social media before 2019. And while there were some seams in the early going of the season, the bullpen developed and had the 3rd best fWAR in baseball. Then they finished 2nd last year. This Twins front office and coaching staff have earned my trust. 

What I believe this front office (and other good front offices) understand that fans struggle with is that now the game is based more in development over acquisition. So that means that hot takes like "Shane Greene's out there! Let's get him!" are becoming an outdated way of thinking. The reality of the game as we've seen from teams like Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland on the cheap side to NYY, LAD, Boston, and Houston on the expensive side is that if you don't have a focused development plan for each player, an acquisition-minded approach is likely to deliver inefficient and mixed results.

The prime example of falling behind on development while struggling to evolve from the acquisition-based mindset is the Cubs. Both the Cubs and the Dodgers rose at similar times. The Dodgers, however, are sustaining while the Cubs appear to be starting a rebuild. While the Dodgers have the ability to acquire the likes of Mookie Betts or Trevor Bauer, they're consistently developing either internal talent like Cody Bellinger, Tony Gosolin, or Will Smith and scrap heap finds like Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, or Max Muncy. The Cubs haven't had those scrap heap finds. Those allow a team the margin of error to miss on a big acquisition (or trade away a Cy Young contender) where those misses appear to have sunk the Cubs. 

While we're bored in the wintertime, development doesn't get the clicks and the social media likes that big acquisition stories do. It's not entertaining content. Nevertheless it's the reality of the game now. The Twins understand this, particularly with building a deep bullpen. Will the results be there like they were the last two years? I hope so, but I can't promise it. I like the mentality and approach though. They're in a good position to get good results. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3rd in overall bullpen fWAR 2 years in a row? If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

[4twinsJA]

I agree with concern about BP, but FO has done a good job of supplying options. Twins have 8-9 that will be on 26 man roster, also 4-5 in minors with some MLB experience as well as prospects. Not all of them have to come through and perform well, hopefully enough of them do. Look for BP to be a work in progress with a lot of shuffling between St. Paul and Twins.

[chpettit19]

 

First, my worry starts much higher than the 8th spot in the pen.

Second, one injury and number 8 is now number 7, etc etc.

And third, every reliever will pitch meaningful innings over the course of the season. It's the nature of MLB. You can't plan on only using the top half of your pen when games are close. Doesn't work out that way.

I have serious concern about this bullpen being good enough to win the ALC, much less the WS.

In 2019 the Twins had 4 relievers throw at least 50 innings and only 2 others throw over 30 innings. That vaunted Royals WS winning bullpen in 2015 only had 6 guys throw more than 30 innings, and 4 guys throw 60+.

 

Bullpen depth is important, and there will be important innings thrown by guys outside your top guys, but in general you can rely on using your top half (top 4 in 8 man pen) in the vast majority of your high leverage innings. The Royals had 13 guys throw at least 10 innings in 2015. The Twins had 17 throw at least 10 in 2019. Both teams only had 3 relievers with a Leverage Index over 1.5. So they basically used 3 guys for their high leverage innings, had a 4th for the middle ground (usually firemen in the middle innings with runners on, like Duffey) and a whole bunch of dudes who pitched basically league average innings. 

 

So, yes, depth is incredibly important and you will have some games where a lesser bullpen piece is in a spot you'd prefer him not to be, but you can actually use the top half of your pen to handle almost all of your close/high leverage innings.

[DocBauer]

Let me state that while it remains to be seen if May can find the consistency needed to go from good to great, I wanted him back. Frankly, I was a little surprised by what he got. Getting outs is what's most important, and there are a lot of ways to get them. But every once in a while it sure makes you feel good to have a high velocity, high K to put on the mound. And until Alcala, or someone else, becomes that arm, it's the ONE part of the pen that gives me pause.

 

I'm in the camp of trusting Rogers, Colome and Duffey. I've said before and say again that Robles could be a key. While the nature of RP is volatile, I look at his career body of work and I can't help but dismiss his awful as an aberration. If he is his normal career self, I feel confident in our back 4 with some nice middle pieces in Thielbar, Stashak and the potential of Alcala.

 

So I'm with Ted on that.

 

Where I'm going to disagree, however, is the depth issue.

 

Very few teams draft and develop and nurture a bullpen fireman through their milb system. Absolutely bullpen arms are developed and reach MLB and do well. But unlike years/decades ago, bullpen arms are no longer regarded as "failed" starters. A pitcher is not a "failure" because he couldn't be a rotation fixture and instead becomes a valuable and reliable RP.

 

Wisler was a tremendous find last year and thought the Twins should have brought him back. I get they had mild concerns about arbitration numbers based on a season he couldn't hope to duplicate again and wanting to have more "option" flexibility with the front half of their pen. I still think they should have brought him back. But who was he this time last year? How highly regarded was Stashak 2yrs ago? Or Thielbar last year?

 

I'm not degrading anyone or wanting to sound condescending in any way, but the Twins are neck deep right now in Wisler-type to work with and develop and promote as needed. I am also not going to blow smoke up anyone's backside, to use a favorite old euphemism, that they have a collection of prized, surprise studs at the ready. And I'm also not going to get too high or too low on ST numbers and their SSS. But just look at the list of possibilities for depth at St Paul: Anderson, Coulombe, Farrell, Hamilton, Law, Minaya, Sparkman and Waddell. Most of these guys have at least appeared in the ML meaning they aren't just wide-eyed rookies.

 

Now, also think about Colina and Chalmers...who I still very hope will find a 3rd pitch and maintain the control he suddenly found the last half of 2019 and stay in the rotation...along with other prospect arms who could be knocking on the AAA door if not kicking it down.

 

And we're not even talking about top SP prospects helping out in the pen before hopefully settling in to a rotation spot.

 

Sorry. I'm not buying a depth issue, especially with what this staff has done the past few years. My only concern is Rogers, Colome, Duffey and Robles just being themselves. Give me that and I'm very happy. Tell me Alcala is going to continue to harness his stuff and improve and I'm almost ecstatic. But depth is not my worry.

[Richard Swerdlick]

For the relatively small cost of around $2 million I would have resigned Wisler. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

In 2019 the Twins had 4 relievers throw at least 50 innings and only 2 others throw over 30 innings. That vaunted Royals WS winning bullpen in 2015 only had 6 guys throw more than 30 innings, and 4 guys throw 60+.

 

Bullpen depth is important, and there will be important innings thrown by guys outside your top guys, but in general you can rely on using your top half (top 4 in 8 man pen) in the vast majority of your high leverage innings. The Royals had 13 guys throw at least 10 innings in 2015. The Twins had 17 throw at least 10 in 2019. Both teams only had 3 relievers with a Leverage Index over 1.5. So they basically used 3 guys for their high leverage innings, had a 4th for the middle ground (usually firemen in the middle innings with runners on, like Duffey) and a whole bunch of dudes who pitched basically league average innings. 

 

So, yes, depth is incredibly important and you will have some games where a lesser bullpen piece is in a spot you'd prefer him not to be, but you can actually use the top half of your pen to handle almost all of your close/high leverage innings.

If you slightly tweak your threshold numbers the Twins had 5 pitchers throw 49+ innings and another 7 throw 25+ innings. I think that paints a much different picture. What group in the 21' pen are you penciling in for 60+ innings? Of the guys that threw the lion's share of innings in 19', May is gone, and Rogers & Smeltzer are each coming off of a pretty bad season, albeit a shortened one. I don't see much of a comp with the 15' Royals. 

[Linus]

For the relatively small cost of around $2 million I would have resigned Wisler.

For a relatively small cost of $2.5 million I would sign Tyler Clippard

[Major League Ready]

 

For a relatively small cost of $2.5 million I would sign Tyler Clippard

 

From MLB Rumors ...

 

More from the relief pitching beat…

 

Tyler Clippard didn’t retire any of seven batters faced during yesterday’s outing, and the Diamondbacks said the veteran reliever was suffering from right shoulder discomfort.  “He just felt the discomfort as the inning was building,” manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters, adding that more will be known about Clippard’s condition after examinations from team trainers.  Clippard signed a one-year deal worth $2.25MM in guaranteed money last month, and is expected to work as a setup man behind Joakim Soria or perhaps grab some save opportunities himself.  [uPDATE: Clippard is getting an MRI on his shoulder, The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets.]

[Trov]

Relievers are always such a wildcard.  Every year this are several that have great years that no one expected and others have terrible years.  Only a few guys will year in and year out be able to be counted on.  With current trends having strong pen across the board is important, where it used to be a couple of top guys was all you needed.  

 

That being said, I never am big on signing FA pen guys.  Mainly because the difference between most FA and a guy that comes up from AAA or lower level signing normally is not enough to give up huge money on them.  It is also hard to say they will always be better than what you have.  Not just for Twins, but many teams will sign a guy only to have them fall out of favor when an unknown pitches better, and the cycle continues over and over.