What a Luis Arraez Contract Extension Would Look Like

[Matthew Trueblood]

Though he’s still five years from free agency, Luis Arraez could be close to his first arbitration payday. Should the Twins sign him to a long-term deal? What would one look like? It’s a deal they almost can’t afford not to make.Arraez, 24 in April, could be positioned to become Super Two-eligible in 2022, depending both on where that line falls and whether the renegotiated collective bargaining agreement ahead of us alters the nature of that designation. That’s a wrinkle in any negotiations about a deal to keep Arraez around beyond his age-28 season in 2025, but it’s almost the only one. In other respects, he’s a straightforward case with a clear recent precedent. The Twins have ample reason to want to retain him, and a good bit of leverage at the bargaining table.

 

Though he’s still only amassed 487 plate appearances in the big leagues, Arraez is a .331/.390/.430 career hitter, and has proved himself to be one of the best contact hitters in baseball. He’s earned the nickname “La Regadera,” or “The Sprinkler,” for his astounding ability to hit the ball cleanly to all fields. On the other hand, it’s become clear that his defensive value will be persistently limited. As unfair as the comparison is to any player so young and inexperienced, the profile Arraez is carving out in the big leagues is eerily evocative of that of Rod Carew. To properly contextualize that, of course, one must understand that Carew would be a bit less highly rated and a bit more limited in the modern game, because of the changes in the way the game is played between his time and now, but it’s an informative lens to keep in mind. If you believe that much in Arraez’s hit tool — and there is absolutely every reason to do so — then he’s worth keeping around into his 30s.

 

Thanks in large part to his injury history, though, it’s taken Arraez a long time to establish himself in the majors. He signed way back in November of 2013, and notably, he only got a $40,000 signing bonus at that time. Baseball has not yet made him truly, enduringly rich, and because of his age and skill set, he runs a real risk of never reaching the point at which that changes. The Twins could absorb that risk and relieve him of it, but get a major bargain on his prime-aged seasons in return.

 

The relevant precedents for an Arraez extension belong to two other infielders who signed as amateur international free agents, but neither is a perfect comp. Ketel Marte was five years from free agency in 2018, when he signed a five-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Marte was entering his age-24 season, just as Arraez is now. The deal bought out his full term of club control, with a steady but small salary progression from year to year. It guaranteed him $24 million, and a pair of options (for 2023 and 2024, which would have been his first two free-agent years) gave him the chance to make as much as $20 million more.

 

Marte had signed for $100,000 seven and a half years before signing the deal. He was due to be Super Two-eligible after 2018. That all places him in a good position to compare to Arraez. However, Marte is an extremely dynamic, switch-hitting, athletic player, who provided significant defensive upside. On the other hand, he had not yet demonstrated anything close to the level of offensive competence Arraez has already shown in the big leagues.

 

A year later, Ozzie Albies signed a seven-year deal with Atlanta, buying out his final five seasons of club control, plus two free-agent years. The total commitment was just $35 million, as he was given an even slower salary escalation en route to would-be free agency. Atlanta even secured two club options, each worth $7 million, at the end of that deal, and one of those is just a $3-million decision after the buyout is factored in. That deal was the most outrageously team-friendly of a spring replete with extensions that favored clubs, and it can’t be used as an especially serious comparison point in terms of total dollars. Nor is the length a good reflection of what the Twins and Arraez might consider, since Albies signed his deal at age 22, and is another speedy switch-hitter with a plus glove.

 

Still, these two deals provide a basic framework. A pact between Arraez and the Twins would start by bumping his 2021 salary from the scheduled salary just above the league minimum (and just under $600,000) to something like $1 million, with another $1 million added as a signing bonus. In 2022, since he’s a borderline case to become Super Two-eligible, he would make somewhere between $1 million and $4 million. (Call it $3 million, with $2 million of that as a bonus, shielding him from the risk of a work stoppage.) In 2023, Arraez would get a bump to about $5 million, and in 2024, he’d make $7 million. In 2025 and 2026, he’d make $8.5 million each year, and the Twins could hold a $10-million option on his services for 2027, with a $1-million buyout.

 

In total, that’s a six-year deal guaranteeing Arraez $35 million. If the Twins exercised their option, it would pay him $44 million over seven seasons. That’s a bit more fair (and less predatory) than the deals signed by Marte and Albies, yet it gives the Twins both cost certainty and real upside. It lets Arraez hit free agency at a reasonable age, but assures the Twins of the right to keep him one or two years longer than they could without signing. It even keeps his salaries low over the next two seasons, while Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, and Josh Donaldson are making big money on the infield, and allows him to grow in pay as his role is likely to grow from 2023 onward.

 

Again, this contract only makes sense if one sees Arraez as one of the game’s better pure hitters. That’s fine, because that’s precisely what he is. The Twins should lock him up, so that they can pencil him in at the top of their order for years to come.

 

SEE ALSO

What a José Berríos Contract Extension Could Look Like

What a Byron Buxton Contract Extension Would Look Like

Alex Kirilloff, and the Truth About Scott Boras and Contract Extensions

 

Click here to view the article

[mnfireman]

He is going to have to prove he can stay healthy and that he can play defense somewhere. Singles hitting DH's don't play and don't get paid in today's game.

[wsnydes]

I'm in no rush to lock him up. I think there are higher priorities. I like him, but see no reason to lock up a guy who doesn't have a defensive position or a guarantee of playing every day.

[Eris]

Although Luis Arraez’s defense at 2B was atrocious in 2019 (4th worst) he improved substantially in 2020 and was close to being an average 2B. Data is from def Fangraphs.

 

Ozzie Albies had a freak elbow injury that likely affected his value and possibly his insurability. Before the injury he was a SS.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/braves-prospect-ozzie-albies-injures-elbow-c200237922.html

[DocBauer]

The moves the FO has made for Kepler, Polanco and Sano thus far are smart and beneficial for both parties. Reminds me much of when Cleveland seemed ahead of the game years ago to keep their core together. I don't think that is any coincidence considering our current FO. And while the $ will almost certainly be different for Buxton and Berrios...especially Berrios...I see them working the same platform.

 

I love Arraez. He's still young enough I can still see some more POP coming in to his game, even if double digit HR totals are not a norm. What's wrong with 30+ doubles ever year with his hit and OB Numbers? Despite him being so young in his career, I don't think the Carew and Gwynn comps are so abstract. I also feel his defense is better than advertised.

 

I don't watch every game available, but I watch a lot. Especially the last 2 years. Arraez was tossed in to LF and basically told to touch the wall and then take a certain number of steps in. Let's just say he was "credible". He was asked to play 3B and a few innings at SS and was again, "credible". In case you misunderstood, "credible" means you didn't absolutely stink or embarrass yourself. And there's something to be said for that, even at the highest level.

 

We often become jaded about euphemisms like someone being a "ballplayer". But who and when was that decided as being a bad thing? Because somewhere along the line that term became regulated to nothing more than a scrappy utility type? When and how and why? Tell me Trout isn't a "ballplayer". Tell me Ballinger isn't a "ballplayer".

 

Arraez is a "ballplayer" meaning he can not only hit, but he has good instincts on how to play the game. It means you can give him a glove and toss him out in the field and just say: "do the best you can". And he's done that thus far in his career. Hell, he played with a bad knee most of 2020 and hit well but everyone questions his defense and versatility. Except, he was at least OK wherever they tossed him out in 2019, unfair as it may have been.

 

Kid IS a "ballplayer".

 

All of this hyperbole, and the logic of the OP, there are other extensions more immediate than Arraez. There is enough control to warrant a wait until next year.

[mikelink45]

I love the way he plays, but I think we are one year too early on this discussion. Let's see how he does as the super Sub.

[mikelink45]

I love the way he plays, but I think we are one year too early on this discussion. Let's see how he does as the super Sub.

[Seth Stohs]

While I think Albies signed for too little, it is weird to me to think of Arraez making as much as Albies with no power or defense. I think he should be closer to Marte, though probably less than Marte. That said, if they want to get something done, they may have to be somewhere in between.

 

I'd feel better at guaranteeing $28-30 million for this same stretch.

 

I like the 2021 and 2022 deals. Drop 2023 to $4 million, 2024 to $5.5 million, $6.5 million in 2025 and 2026 could be $8 million. Leave the option year the same. 

 

Now you're looking at 6 years, $30 million which could bump to $39 million with the option. 

[rdehring]

With all the unknowns from COVID this year and the CBA next winter, no reason to have this discussion until next off season. Then get him locked in for a long, long time.

 

Lots of people talk about his defense as being a problem. Yet, if memory serves he played as much or more in left field when he arrived in 2019 than any other position. And I believe his total time in left field prior to that was a few innings sometime in the lower minors. Will he ever be a great defensive player, probably not. But he ain't as bad as many here and elsewhere claim...at least when healthy and given a reasonable time to prepare in the position asked to play.

[Shaitan]

It's way too early for this discussion. Two years ago we all loved the Polanco and Kepler deals too. They're still favorable to the team, but if you extend everybody you also freeze your ability to make roster moves.

 

And I'm in no rush with Arraez. He's great so far. But a player with no power and no position isn't going to break the bank in arbitration.

 

Let him play for now and revisit when the clock starts ticking on his controlled years.

[chpettit19]

I think an Arraez extension right now comes down to what the team Drs say about his knees. Are they a chronic problem? Will they just continue to get worse as he gets older and puts more wear and tear on them? If so I think you have to let him go year to year, unfortunately. I love Arraez. I think he's incredibly underrated. If he's a .320+ hitter with 30+ doubles and a .380 OBP he's a very useful player. He also seems to be a gamer, and the anti-Rosario in that he doesn't seem to make boneheaded plays that hurt the team. Which goes a long way for the Twins being able to actually win a playoff game by not shooting themselves in the foot. With defensive shifting these days you can hide lesser defenders if you have better fielders in most spots. I mean Mike Moustakas has been playing 2B for years now and he's not exactly a rangy guy.

 

If the team Drs think his knees are good to go I think there's a lot to be said for having a guy like him locked in and knowing you have a positionally flexible player who will battle each and every pitch and put up consistently good numbers. If you're extending him to be your superstar for the next 7 years you'll be disappointed, but winning teams have scrappy, winning players. Arraez is a good piece to have on a winning team.

[Seansy]

 

I think an Arraez extension right now comes down to what the team Drs say about his knees. Are they a chronic problem? Will they just continue to get worse as he gets older and puts more wear and tear on them? If so I think you have to let him go year to year, unfortunately. I love Arraez. I think he's incredibly underrated. If he's a .320+ hitter with 30+ doubles and a .380 OBP he's a very useful player. He also seems to be a gamer, and the anti-Rosario in that he doesn't seem to make boneheaded plays that hurt the team. Which goes a long way for the Twins being able to actually win a playoff game by not shooting themselves in the foot. With defensive shifting these days you can hide lesser defenders if you have better fielders in most spots. I mean Mike Moustakas has been playing 2B for years now and he's not exactly a rangy guy.

 

If the team Drs think his knees are good to go I think there's a lot to be said for having a guy like him locked in and knowing you have a positionally flexible player who will battle each and every pitch and put up consistently good numbers. If you're extending him to be your superstar for the next 7 years you'll be disappointed, but winning teams have scrappy, winning players. Arraez is a good piece to have on a winning team.

This perfectly sums up my thinking on Arraez. If the knees will hold up, sign him long term. If they will get progressively worse with age it might be better to either avoid a long term extension or only sign one that is VERY team friendly that also helps Arraez protect himself from career ending financial losses due to his knees.