An Outside Perspective, and a Trade Idea: Part II

[Matthew Trueblood]

Luis Castillo is one of baseball's best starting pitchers, and could be the first big name to hit the trading block this spring. What could the Twins give up to land him?Here's a link to Part 1 of this article.

 

Last time, I discussed why Yankees fans currently view the Twins as an afterthought in the fight for the AL pennant, and why they might be right. I proposed Castillo as a difference-maker who could change that calculus. Today, let's talk about one package that could land the flamethrower in Minnesota.

 

It starts with Jorge Polanco. For a Twins team trying to challenge the Yankees this year, that might be the hardest pill to swallow here, but it’s necessary. One need not believe Polanco to be much of a shortstop to believe that he would be a huge upgrade for the Reds at shortstop, because they virtually don’t have a shortstop, at all. Polanco would add balance and depth to the Reds’ lineup, and fill their most glaring positional hole. They’re not aiming for a scorched-Earth rebuild—something more along the lines of the Twins’ reconstruction would suit their ownership’s mentality—so that would be highly attractive to them.

 

After that, the two teams would have to decide on a second piece in the deal, and there are three clear candidates. Two of those are the Twins’ top two pitching prospects, Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic. However, it’s somewhat easy to imagine the Twins balking at giving up either, because after 2021, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker will all be free agents. After 2022, José Berríos will follow suit (unless the front office can convince him to sign an extension by then). Kenta Maeda is around through 2024, but since he turns 33 next month, that’s almost as much a threat as a promise. Even with Castillo in the mix, the Twins need their top-tier, close-to-the-big-leagues arms.

 

Consider, then, another option. The Twins hold the 26th pick in the first round this year, and (of course) that pick is untradeable. However, the team’s competitive-balance pick can be dealt. Since it’s the Twins’ turn to have a pick in Competitive Balance Round A (after the first round), that’s the 36th overall selection. That could be an extremely enticing bit of bait for the Reds.

 

Cincinnati picks 17th in July. Then, they pick again at 30, as compensation for the loss of Trevor Bauer in free agency. They, too, have a competitive-balance pick coming, at 35. If they added one at 36, they could turbocharge a rebuild that was foisted upon them by circumstance. Because of the way the MLB Draft works, four picks in the top 36 (and five in the top 53) would give them a chance to either push a couple of elite talents down the board or stockpile high-quality prospects, in a shorter draft than the league has ever seen (save last year’s).

 

If the trade did center upon Polanco and the draft pick, another, low-level prospect would likely need to be thrown in. Even so, the deal could get done without Minnesota giving up any of its elite prospect talent, and the Reds could still justify giving up their ace, by pointing to their long-term, affordable control over a solid big-league infielder (Polanco, remember, has club options for 2024 and 2025) and to the rapid restocking of a thin farm system via the draft.

 

Although Polanco’s 2021 salary ($4.333 million) is almost identical to that of Castillo ($4.2 million), the Twins would also have to kick in some money. The Reds lost even more than most clubs during 2020, by running a payroll far beyond their small-market standards and gambling (sensibly, but for the pandemic of it all) that a competitive team would draw large crowds. Their local TV deal is one of the league’s least valuable. Again, though, their owners don’t want to nosedive into an Astros-style rebuild. They would much rather do what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done for the Twins. They just need short-term financial relief; that would be a primary impetus for trading Castillo. If the Twins were willing to pay them around $5 million, the above deal would become feasible. (Of course, that would stretch the Twins’ 2021 budget a bit. So be it.)

 

In the bargain, the Twins would leapfrog the White Sox and Cleveland and claim the title of the best starting rotation in the AL Central. In fact, they might fairly claim to have the best in the entire American League. Castillo throws in the upper 90s with his fastball, and commands it brilliantly; has one of the league’s most devastating changeups; and throws a really good slider. Wes Johnson would quickly sell him on throwing the last offering more, especially to lefties, and he could become one of the five best pitchers in baseball with that small adjustment.

 

Losing Polanco would hurt, of course. The Twins would have to trust either that they could trade from their newfound surfeit of starters to land a capable utility player with the ability to cover shortstop, or that J.T. Riddle or Nick Gordon could competently stop the gap if (when) Andrelton Simmons misses time. Still, the deal would add clarity for the team in the starting lineup. Luis Arraez, who belongs at the top of the batting order every day, would get that opportunity again. Travis Blankenhorn would assume a limited version of the role for which Arraez is now slated, filling in at first, second, and third base to spell starters and allow nagging injuries to heal.

 

To believe the Twins to be better than the Yankees, even after this hypothetical trade, you still have to think highly of their hitters. You have to believe that the 2019 versions of Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver are coming back; that Byron Buxton and Simmons can stay on the field enough to have the impact of which they’re capable; and that Miguel Sanó can time fastballs properly on a more consistent basis. None of those are unreasonable things for which to hope, though.

Moreover, the version of the Twins this deal would create would, in a theoretical October showdown with the Yankees’ (or White Sox’s) excellent but right-leaning lineup, counter with three of the best right-handed starting pitchers in all of baseball, with a Michael Pineda kicker. We talk often about star power versus depth. This deal would give the Twins a depth of star power that more closely matches that of New York, and that’s the kind of team that seems to find the most success in the playoffs.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[mike8791]

You know what they say about great minds.....!!   I posted in your Part 1 post that Polanco is an obvious trade candidate with the Reds, partly because they have not yet addressed their biggest need of the offseason - SS, and also because moving Arraez to a utility player makes absolutely no sense when you consider he is a batting title contender with great OBP potential.  Do you risk messing with such offensive potential  by moving him around to different positions?  He is too accomplished a hitter to risk a utility role, even if his ABs are maintained.  And Lin looks like he might be a perfectly acceptable utility IF.

 

Polanco + a top 20 pitching prospect might work, but you can rest assured a high pitching prospect would be a much higher priority to the Reds than a draft choice.  I would throw in someone like Rooker, too.  I believe such a package could land Gray who would certainly move into the top 3 of Twins' rotation, but not Castillo.  To grab Castillo would probably take either Kirillof or Larnach.  That would be a deal killer for me.  Both of these players are the only near-term prospects that look like significant upgrade tp a lineup still filled with too many all or nothing hitters.

 

Such a trade is so against this FO's track record that its safe to say its not going to happen, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't.

[ashbury]

This article makes a great argument why the Twins would jump at this deal.

[Dr. Evil]

I like this idea a lot. It gets Arraez back in the starting lineup. Toss in Sano instead of the comp pick. Rooker to left field and Kiriloff to 1B.

[Doctor Gast]

I can't see either team accepting this deal. It wouldn't be fair to the Reds because they need a true SS and they'd want a ton more than what you are offering.

It wouldn't be fair to Polanco because if they keep over stretching him at SS, he'll continue to digress maybe to the point of no return and never accomplish his full potential at 2B which was forecast before he was fixed at SS which was MVP.

It wouldn't be fair to the Twins because Polanco is grossly undervalued and the tremendous more talent they'd have to give up to obtain Castillo especially if you want to throw in more undervalued players that was thrown off because of covid.

I've talked to a true Reds fan and he said that if MN wants Castillo, the talks will have to begin with Kiriloff or forget it. I'm sorry that's reality.

[jimbo92107]

Sounds like the Twins don't really have the players to make this deal. However, for a pitcher of Castillo's quality I would not hesitate to offer both Buxton and Kepler in trade, going with the next wave outfield of Kirilloff, Celestino and Larnach. 

 

Man, these windows are small!

[Seansy]

The fact that I would agree to this deal in a nanosecond tells me that it's likely not good enough to land Castillo.

 

If they were asking for Gleyber+ I don't think Polanco, a comp pick, and cash would be enough. Probably would need to include at least another top 10ish prospect or take back a bad contract like Moose/Castellanos to include enough salary relief to make it worth their while.

[ScrapTheNickname]

A very well written article!

 

I like the idea quite a bit, but then I began to wonder (as others have) that if Polanco isn't good enough to play SS for the Twins why would the Reds consider him good enough to play for them? Sort of the lynchpin on the whole deal falls apart right there.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I tend to agree that Polanco is the obvious bait, but that he might not be enough. Maybe by July, Polanco looks good enough and the Reds look bad enough.

 

All that said, I think Polanco means more to beating the Yankees than another starting pitcher, even a Game 1 starter.

 

It's becoming clear why the front office values the flexibility of Polanco in the infield and Kepler in the outfield, so much so that they were the first extensions handed out. They each play the role of "utility starter", that is, an above average two way starter, who can slide to any other position in the infield and outfield, thus allowing you to have serious bats Arraez and Rooker as "bench" players who actually play frequently, and just cause Polanco and Kepler to move around.

 

It's smart roster construction, and the Twins don't have any replacement for Polanco that allows it until Lewis is ready.

[DocBauer]

I'm a big Polanco fan. I believe he will adapt to 2B very well and that his offense will return with his ankle now, supposedly, fixed this time. But I would make this deal in a heartbeat.

 

Which means it probably isn't viable.

 

Matt, I fully appreciate your well thought out arguements as stated. Your points and proposal are well thought out and well argued. But they just aren't practical. The Reds could use Polanco at SS in their re-tool short term and then shift him as the Twins are doing. The collection of draft picks the Reds would have helps re-stock their system, but seems more like a re-build than a re-load, which is counter to most of your arguement.

 

Assuming the Reds are even interested in trading Castillo, it would take Polanco, one of Duran-Balazovic-Canterino and then one of Kirilloff or Larnach. I know that if I were them that's what I'd be asking for.

 

Could the Twins afford to do that without decimating their system and future? Absolutely. But it's a steep price to pay, and a bit risky, with Rosario gone, Cruz on what is probably his final year and 3 rotation pieces with expiring contracts.

 

On my own personal soapbox, I'm just not concerned about some playoff jinx and poor run. Virtually every single player, manager, coach and FO personnel have nothing to with that streak except for a couple recent losses. And I couldn't give a ×#$! about the Yankees or anyone's perspective on them even from respected media. The Twins are a very good team that has been re-tooled top to bottom and inside out over the past few years. And over the next couple of seasons, we are going to see some re-tooling on the fly both in the lineup and the pitching staff.

 

If the Reds would so this, great! Otherwise, I like what I see right now. Talk to me again mid-season if there are injuries, poor performance or surprise opportunity to add.

[Brandon]

I think Castillo would be a better acquisition for us next offseason. If we loose a couple if starters and the young guys aren't ready then a trade makes sense. We have 6 starting pitchers right now with a few challenging for spot starts and a few rookies getting close. While Castillo is a 1 or 2 starter we should absolutely look into acquiring, I just don't see how we can matchup without trading multiple prospects which we may need for a future roster. Polanco is not good to trade as that would hurt our flexibility. We could trade Royce Lewis, and several prospects or get a third team involved. Maybe during the offseason I would be fine with trading Polanco but not now.

[Eris]

Not sure when the proposed Castillo trade with Gleyber Torres as the centerpiece was suggested, but Torres is very overrated as a SS.

 

http://www.backsportspage.com/sorry-to-burst-your-bubble-yankee-fans-but-gleyber-torres-is-not-an-elite-shortstop/

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I like this idea a lot. It gets Arraez back in the starting lineup. Toss in Sano instead of the comp pick. Rooker to left field and Kiriloff to 1B.

I agree/

[Dman]

If this articles proposed trade idea worked or something close to it, It would definitely be worth it IMO but I don't think it would be enough.

 

I like the idea of using the draft pick to lesson the blow of losing prospects but to make this del work I think the Reds would want a comp similar to what the Rays got for Chris Archer.  So probably Kiriilloff (Meadows)  Balazovic or Duran whoever Pittsburgh likes better (Glassnow) and then maybe that draft pick or a younger pitcher like Enlow (Baz).  Maybe a throw in as well just to make it look even better.

 

Castillo is a very good pitcher and I don't think we match up well with Polanco or even Kirilloff.  If they are giving up their best pitcher they will want a guy with potential to be as good and able to replace him fairly soon. Getting a controllable fairly elite shortstop would likely also be necessary but Maybe Kirilloff would suffice.  Since you can't bank on prospects a third solid guy would need to be thrown in also likely a pitcher because they are already giving up pitching so would likely want pitching in return and if the return isn't extra pitching why make the trade in the first place?  Again if they were willing to bite on the draft pick that would help but it is hard to say if that is something they would want to do rather than take a guy further along. 

 

They don't need to trade their best pitcher the only way they would is if the offer was just too good to refuse.

 

 

[jkcarew]

Not enough.

[Rosterman]

You don't get quality and a player still under control by giving a team players you really don't want. You have to give them guys you think you might want to keep, but are getting something stronger in place.

 

The Reds can keep their pitcher and buy a shortstop comparable to Polanco. You would have to trade one of the young gun arms, and probably one of the outfield arms in the deal, period, end of discussion.

 

The Twins shant do that. Both their top arms are controllable for up to six seasons. Krill and Lar will push Sano off the roster.

[South Dakota Tom]

Polanco plus Canterino plus Rijo plus competitive balance pick. He would be lovely to have.

[Major League Ready]

It would not make sense to give up Castillo unless the Reds were going into a full rebuild. I doubt they would do that at this point. If they did, the haul would have top be enormous and centered around more than 1 high end prospect.  What have similar trades looked like?

 

It would take something like  Lewis or Kirilloff + Balazovic or Duran + Wallner + Bailey and they might require a package with more pitching. Any package that does not really hurt our future won't be enough to get Castillo.

[Twinfan603]

I don't see the Reds spending more than 10 seconds digesting this before hanging up.

 

Polanco is not good enough to be the major chip in a trade for a front-line pitcher.

 

Considering the Reds were so stubborn in wanting Torres from the Yankees and the Twins have multiple top-30 prospects, Lewis or Kirilloff would need to be involved to get it done.

 

Lewis+Duran or Balazovic+low level lottery ticket (organizational rank 16-25) might be enough, but even then negotiations would take a while.

[Fatbat]

The twins aren't going to trade any top 20 prospects. They love to develop and keep talent in house, even if the talent underperforms expectations.

[Trov]

The fact that Castillo has 3 years of control means the Reds have the leverage in any trade.  They are not forced to make a deal or risk losing for draft pick, that will be the comp when he is FA.  Either way they have at least this full year and next year until trade deadline to make a deal.  

 

The deal proposed here I would hate if I was a reds fan.  Your best asset and you get back a SS that was shifted to 2b because of his lack of defense at SS, and a draft pick and low level prospect.  I would not stomach that as a reds fan.  I am not a follower of the reds farm system, and do not know when they think their window will be, but this deal offered would seem to move the needle for reds.  

 

The reds will sit and wait until this trade deadline and see which teams will pony up bigger prospects moving forward.  Their only risk is Castillo injury or poor pitching.  

[Major League Ready]

 

The twins aren't going to trade any top 20 prospects. They love to develop and keep talent in house, even if the talent underperforms expectations.

 

Brusdar Graterol

[Fatbat]

Kenta Maeda. The twins didn't give up 4 or 5 players/ draft picks.

[Major League Ready]

 

Kenta Maeda. The twins didn't give up 4 or 5 players/ draft picks.

 

Your portrayal was that they "aren't going to trade any top 20 prospects".  To come back with they "didn't give up 4 or 5 players/ draft picks" demonstrates you understand how badly your original statement misrepresented the situation. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not sure when the proposed Castillo trade with Gleyber Torres as the centerpiece was suggested, but Torres is very overrated as a SS.

http://www.backsportspage.com/sorry-to-burst-your-bubble-yankee-fans-but-gleyber-torres-is-not-an-elite-shortstop/

I'm not sure anyone rates Gleyber Torres super-highly with the glove -- I think it's more that his bat already offsets some of that and could improve even more.

 

Torres and Polanco may rate similarly at short so far (-10.7 and -10.9 UZR/150, respectively), but Torres has a cumulative career 121 wRC+, which tops Polanco's career high to date (120, career 104). ZiPs projects Torres at 132 this year (and also projects some defensive improvement, it appears -- after all, Torres just turned 24 and only has a season's worth of innings at short, compared to Polanco who has 3.5 times those innings and is turning 28 -- and was just replaced at short, albeit by a great defender).

[BK432]

I agree with the sentiment that what was proposed probably isn't enough, but:

 

a) Trueblood didn't finish putting the deal together, he was just highlighting the integral pieces; and

I think people are really UNDERVALUING the compensatory pick

 

I doubt this is as far off as several believe it to be. Some people posting what they think the Reds would demand might be right - they might demand it as a starting point, but to think that Alex Kirilloff would need to be included is a tad absurd. 6 years of Kirilloff for 3 of Castillo is a loss before you go any further. And the Reds would know that.

[Major League Ready]

Which SPs that have been traded in the past 5-10 years should we consider as benchmarks? It would be interesting to look at the packages traded.

[Major League Ready]

 

I agree with the sentiment that what was proposed probably isn't enough, but:

 

a) Trueblood didn't finish putting the deal together, he was just highlighting the integral pieces; and

I think people are really UNDERVALUING the compensatory pick

 

I doubt this is as far off as several believe it to be. Some people posting what they think the Reds would demand might be right - they might demand it as a starting point, but to think that Alex Kirilloff would need to be included is a tad absurd. 6 years of Kirilloff for 3 of Castillo is a loss before you go any further. And the Reds would know that.

 

I am not so much worried that they would want Kirilloff as much as the overall package (especially pitching) required.  Top SPs generally require really good pitching going back.  The Rays got a great pitching prospect in Patino who is a top 20 prospect (60 FV) as well as Cole Wilcox (50 FV).  Wilcox is The Rays 8th rated prospect and he would be top 5 on a lot of teams.  They also got Blake Hunter and Francisco Mejia. Of course, they play a premium position and have 50FVs as catchers. 

 

Larnach / Balazovic / Duran and Celestino or Jeffers would be pretty close to wjhat the Rays got for Snell. While Snell was great in 2018, Castillo has produced 2X the WAR over the past two years. I am sure some will disagree but I would rather have Castillo and I think the ask would be even higher.