AL Central Rundown: First Basemen

[Ted Schwerzler]

Teams have started reporting to their Spring Training sites and the AL Central will be accounted for when Minnesota shows up on Friday. How does the division look at first base for 2021?The Rundown

 

Only three teams have established first basemen heading into 2021. The Chicago White Sox employ the reigning AL MVP at first base, and the Kansas City Royals plucked Carlos Santana from Cleveland over the winter.

 

Miguel Sano will get his first taste of a full 162 game schedule (hopefully) playing first base this year for the Twins. He moved across the diamond to accommodate Josh Donaldson a year ago and will enter 2021 with a clean bill of health.

 

Both Cleveland and Detroit Tigers are in flux at the position, but each team will be looking for someone to establish themselves. Here’s how things compare.

 

Detroit Tigers

 

C.J. Cron manned this position for the Tigers in 2020 but has since signed with the Colorado Rockies. Under new manager A.J. Hinch, Detroit looks like they’ll roll with Jeimer Candelario. He’s 27 years old and has now played in just over 300 games with the Tigers dating back to 2017.

 

Coming into the 2017 season with the Chicago Cubs, MLB Pipeline had Candelario pegged as a top-100 prospect. He was sent to the Tigers in exchange for Justin Wilson. Being blocked on the corners by Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, Chicago deemed him expendable.

 

Posting just a .693 OPS in his first 281 career games, Detroit is hoping that the 52 games in 2020 are no mirage. Candelario slashed .297/.369/.503 while starting 41 games at first. There’s no veteran presence to take away action from him this year and the role will be his to own.

 

Kansas City Royals

 

I’ve really liked what Kansas City has done this offseason, and the pact with Carlos Santana is reflective of that notion. Having spent the bulk of his career in Cleveland, he now goes to a divisional rival in Kansas City.

 

The last time Santana played for another organization things didn’t go too well. In one season with the Phillies, he posted a disappointing .766 OPS across 161 games. Returning to Cleveland for two seasons, 2020 saw a massive dip to a .699 OPS after a career best .911 in 2019. Kansas City is banking on a resurgence for the soon-to-be 35-year-old, grabbing him on a two-year deal.

 

Santana could spend some time at DH for the Royals but is solid with the glove defensively. He’s been a high on-base hitter over the course of his career, and you can virtually book him for 20-plus homers in any given season. Looking for some veteran presence as Kansas City returns to relevance, Santana should provide plenty of value.

 

Minnesota Twins

 

Entering the 2020 season Miguel Sano was facing a late start for the second straight year. After a fluke achilles injury in 2019, he battled a bout of Covid-19 during Summer Camp 2020. Now firmly entrenched at first base, it’s the year to prove he can stick in this role and isn’t automatically destined to be the successor to Nelson Cruz at DH in 2021.

 

Just one year removed from an eye-popping .923 OPS, Sano struck out a ridiculous 40-plus percent in 2020. His .757 OPS wasn’t at all what the Twins needed from a bat expected to hit in the middle of the order, and his Bomba Squad-esque presence was nowhere to be found.

 

There’s plenty of reason for optimism regarding Miguel in the season ahead, however. He punished the ball while making contact in 2020 and had some of the best hard-hit rates in the entirety of the league. While Major League Baseball is deadening the ball for the upcoming season, Sano isn’t the type of hitter that will feel much impact.

 

Seemingly more committed to his craft in the past two years, Sano’s development defensively could go a long ways to shoring up the right side of an infield that will be staring across at two defensive stalwarts this season. Miguel’s bat is always going to be the tool that carries him, but his glove could round him out into being a real asset for the Twins this season.

 

Cleveland

 

After competing for the AL Central division title in recent years, Cleveland seems destined to punt on the 2021 season. They’ve shipped out every offensive asset not named Jose Ramirez, and their pitching staff is sure to have plenty of dazzling performances wasted. Gone to competition is Santana, and Mike Freeman is expected to get the initial crack at first base.

 

The 33-year-old journeyman has played 99 games with Cleveland over the past two seasons. Last year he saw action in just 24 games and mustered only a .618 OPS. He was better in 2019 putting up a .752 OPS across 75 games but didn’t spend a single inning at first base.

 

Expecting offense from this team is going to be a significant question mark and looking at first base is more than indicative of that. Freeman has just five career home runs, and four of them came during the 2019 season. The since departed Santana has always been good for 20-plus, and lacking power at a corner position isn’t a great recipe for success.

 

Maybe top prospect Nolan Jones is promoted into this role should Cleveland keep Ramirez at the hot corner. There’s not much to lean on considering what Terry Francona will have at his disposal, so this role remains a big question mark.

 

Chicago White Sox

 

If the storyline for the 2021 White Sox is going to be the young kids, elder statesmen Jose Abreu made sure you don’t forget him bringing home some hardware to cap off 2020. His .617 slugging led the league and jumped the OPS to a career best .987 mark.

 

Abreu started all 60 games for Chicago a year ago, and 54 of them came at first base. Expecting a repeat performance of the otherworldly offensive output from 2020 probably isn’t a good bet, but Abreu’s .870 career OPS is plenty reflective of a guy that has been contributing at a high level for quite some time.

 

Chicago is going to be looking for a replication of the offensive explosion they experienced during the 2020 season, and it will be on Abreu to pace the likes of Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Nick Madrigal, and the since returned Adam Eaton. Tony La Russa will need to rely on some of his veterans as an added voice with the youth in the clubhouse, and Abreu should be an asset there as well.

 

No one should expect a ton defensively from Abreu as he’s posted subpar numbers analytically over the course of his career. That said, when the bat carries him as it does, there’s nothing to take away from him when he’s rocking the leather.

 

Grade Em

 

Download attachment: 1B.PNG

 

Detroit Tigers C+

 

It’s clear that ZiPS loves Candelario, but I can’t be all in on his .872 OPS from last season without accounting for the .684 OPS in the 238 games from 2018-19. I don’t have a problem with them moving on from Cron, but this should be a wait and see evaluation.

 

Kansas City Royals B

 

I really liked Carlos Santana as a fit for the Twins prior to him signing with the Phillies a couple of years ago. He declined a lot in 2020, but maybe there’s a bit left in the tank. Kansas City is banked on that fact giving him two years guaranteed, and while he may not post a .900 OPS again, I think a number above .800 is reasonable.

 

Minnesota Twins B+

 

The Twins have plenty of bats that can pace their lineup in 2021, but none may be more impactful than Sano. He’s absolutely unreal when he goes on a tear, and if having everything trend positively for him coming into a season is helpful, this is the year we should see it all on display.

 

Cleveland F

 

After Santana wasn’t brought back there had to be another plan in Cleveland. Unfortunately for their fans, all offseason has been about trying NOT to compete in the year ahead. Again, maybe top prospect Nolan Jones gets run here, but until that happens, they’ve got nothing at this spot.

 

Chicago White Sox A+

 

Expecting an MVP candidate from the White Sox in 2020 probably could’ve been assumed for Tim Anderson or Luis Robert. Instead, the ever-steady Jose Abreu put together a career year and earned those honors. Even if he slides backwards some, regression to the mean isn’t far.

 

The Voice of the People

 

Here’s how YOU that follow Twins Daily on Twitter think this shakes out.

 

 

Click here to view the article

[Dodecahedron]

Good write up.

 

My opinion since Sano moved to first base: He is a pricier version of Kennys Vargas. We never saw a full season of Vargas, but if we had his floor would probably be higher than Sano's floor, both offensively and defensively. Remember when the fanbase had visceral reactions to putting a poor defender like Vargas at first? Now the team has a worse defender at first.

 

Of course, if Sano ever fires on all cylinders, great things can happen when he hits the ball. Hopefully no one is holding their breath on that occurring for a full year on a regular basis, since it has yet to happen once.

[Thegrin]

I don't think that Sano was a poor defender in 2000. However, he will have to improve if he is going to remain there. 

[tony&rodney]

Sano is athletic, but his simple fundamentals at the bag are lacking; look at the photo. His size and experience work against him but his glove work at digging grounders on the left side are useful at first base for scooping low throws. I hope he can make significant improvements this season. I love to watch him hit and am greedily wishing for 40 bombs, 100 walks, and a .275 average.

[big dog]

 

 I love to watch him hit and am greedily wishing for 40 bombs, 100 walks, and a .275 average.

Waiter? I'll have whatever he's drinking. Make it a double, please.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Waiter? I'll have whatever he's drinking. Make it a double, please.

I'm afraid it is Kool aid.

[DocBauer]

Cleveland...WOOF!

 

And not just at 1B. But shouldn't 1B be the easiest spot to find SOMEONE who can field a little, hit a little,and provide some pop? Feels like they just don't care at the moment.

[mikelink45]

Miguel is third on this list with the potential to be number one or number 5.  I wish I had more confidence in him, but his performance seems to get a shrug and not a concentration on improvement.  I do not care about exit velocity unless they start to give us extra runs (points?) for hitting it hard.  I do care about Ks.  

[Physics Guy]

 

Miguel is third on this list with the potential to be number one or number 5.  I wish I had more confidence in him, but his performance seems to get a shrug and not a concentration on improvement.  I do not care about exit velocity unless they start to give us extra runs (points?) for hitting it hard.  I do care about Ks.  

While I can see the argument for Abreu and Santana being ahead of Sano, given the choice I would want Sano. Barring injury, I see minimal chance Sano is below 3rd in the division. Actually, I would say Santana is the likeliest to fall. Sano will be 28 this season, vs 35 for Santana and 34 for Abreu. Sano has a higher career OPS than Santana and Abreu's 2020 was a significant outlier from the previous two seasons. 2019 OPS:  Sano 0.923, Santana, 0.911 and Abreu 0.834. If Sano plays 140-150 games this year, my money would be on Sano for sure for exactly the reason you stated. Sano's exit velocity is a strong indicator of success. He needs to reduce his K rate, but his EV leads to more hits on balls put in play. When the poll came out on Twitter, I voted for Abreu (for this year). Long term give me Sano all day.