Article: Six Minnesota Twins Among MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1342-Six-Minnesota-Twins-Among-MLB-com-s-Top-100-Prospect

[mcrow]

I really think that Arcia might prove to be the best prospect in the system by the end of the season. I really like Sano's physical makeup and power but Arcia probably has more potential to be a better all around hitter. We will see though, it is nice to see some top notch talent in the minors again.

[Cap'n Piranha]

It's encouraging to see the rebound of the farm system, but I still think Rosario got short-changed, and should be on this list. I also think it's absolutely ridiculous that Castellanos is considered to be number 21, while Arcia is 93. Now that they're playing the same position, it astounds me that there would be that big of a gap, considering Arcia is less than a year older, and had more hits, doubles, triples, homers, and walks, with fewer strikeouts, in less at-bats than Castellanos. Just ridiculous.

 

That being said, I fully believe that we'll continue to see 5-6 players on this list on a yearly basis for the next few years. Gibson, Hicks and Arcia might all be off the list next year, but I fully expect Rosario, Berrios, pick #4, and maybe Kepler and May to replace them, with Sano, Buxton, and Meyer as holdovers.

[Mike Sixel]

Great progress. With two more top 5 picks, the minors should be even better over the next couple of years.

[Jeff P]

So Hicks moves up a level and increases his OPS by 122 points and moves down 39 spots?? I realize the Eastern league is more hitter friendly but not by that much. What would it have taken him to maintain his rankings, an improvement of 200 points? 300 points?

 

I realize some of the rankings for younger guys is based on projection (i.e. look at Bubba Starling's ranking compared to his actual production in the Appy league) so I was not expecting Hicks to move up but this ranking seems strange. Actually as I scan the list a number of these rankings seems strange. They obviously have put a lot of time into scouting and reviewing the players but it does emphasize to me how much of a crapshoot it all is.

 

Still nice to have more players ranked and I am looking forward to seeing some of these players as soon as this year.

 

Jeff

[diehardtwinsfan]

Arcia is sorely underrated, and not just on MLB either. He should be either the number 1 or number 2 prospect on any Twins list right now.

[Badsmerf]

I feel like Hicks and Arcia are getting screwed over pretty good.... Arcia more than Hicks. It doesn't really matter in the long-run, I just don't agree how these rankings are compiled. Best prospect to me means best chance to make an impact in the MLB, not highest ceiling. I rank mine on a weighted scale of production, ceiling and risk. Again, Rosario falls off based on the doubts on his ability to play 2b. If he makes big strides this season he will crack the top 100. It is fun to see more Twins on these lists, but keep in mind top prospects fail all the time. A guy like Brandon Wood was in the top 20 for 3 years in a row and hasn't been able to OPS over .513 in 700 AB's (although, I would have given him a flier for back-up 3b).

[Mark_RM]

ESPN's Keith Law's top 100 comes out next week. It will be interesting to see where he ranks everyone. He said in a chat in December that he expects at least 7 Twins to make it. He's a fan of Rosario...so I'm guessing May, Berrios and Kepler are possibles for him.

[gunnarthor]

ESPN's Keith Law's top 100 comes out next week. It will be interesting to see where he ranks everyone. He said in a chat in December that he expects at least 7 Twins to make it. He's a fan of Rosario...so I'm guessing May, Berrios and Kepler are possibles for him.

 

Yeah, I was going to mention that too. He's also been a big fan of Hicks and Arcia in the past.

 

MLB's top 100 isn't, IMHO, as good as BA's list, so I'll be interested to see how they compare. BA was the hardest on Hicks, I'd love to see what they think of him now.

 

Lastly, fangraphs Mike Newman would take Kepler over Bubba Starling. He's a huge fan.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Totally agree with mcrow. For Arcia to be putting up his numbers in AA ball at age 21 (youngest player on the team) is very promising.

[ThePuck]

Yeah, I was going to mention that too. He's also been a big fan of Hicks and Arcia in the past.

 

MLB's top 100 isn't, IMHO, as good as BA's list, so I'll be interested to see how they compare. BA was the hardest on Hicks, I'd love to see what they think of him now.

 

Lastly, fangraphs Mike Newman would take Kepler over Bubba Starling. He's a huge fan.

 

Keith Law is a fan of Kepler as well.

[ThePuck]

Arcia is sorely underrated, and not just on MLB either. He should be either the number 1 or number 2 prospect on any Twins list right now.

 

Of all the Twins prospects knocking on the MLB door, Arcia is the one I'm most excited to have up here.

[Parker Hageman]

RE: Arcia. The only knock I see against Arcia at this juncture in his career is his ability to handle lefties. The past two years he's posted a 952 OPS v RHP but a 739 OPS v LHP. That's very Jason Kubel-like. Now, he could certainly improve upon that - especially as he catches up to the competition - but because he is going to face far more right-handed opponents over the course of his career, this is not necessarily something to be overly concerned over.

[mcrow]

RE: Arcia. The only knock I see against Arcia at this juncture in his career is his ability to handle lefties. The past two years he's posted a 952 OPS v RHP but a 739 OPS v LHP. That's very Jason Kubel-like. Now, he could certainly improve upon that - especially as he catches up to the competition - but because he is going to face far more right-handed opponents over the course of his career, this is not necessarily something to be overly concerned over.

 

Yeah, that seems to be the most legitimate knock on him, but like you said for a young player there's not reason that can't improve. He may never be great VS Lefties but he can certainly get good enough to not be liability when a lefty is on the mound.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

 

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

[cmathewson]

It's amazing how different Bill Smith's philosophy was from Ryan's. I keep focusing on one quote, which Ryan said to LEN III after Smith was fired "I will be more patient than Bill." Pretty much sums it up. Smith was in perpetual "win now" mode. So, though 2010 was a glorious year, we saw the after affects in 2011, when the Twins had gone from penthouse to outhouse both on the major league and minor league levels.

 

That said, the good side of Smith's legacy will be in his signings of Sano, Kepler and Polanco. Though he was a comparative spendthrift and an impatient sort at the major league level (trading Ramos for Capps e.g.), he also spent more money on international prospects than any Twins GM.

 

One way or another, you have to spend money to get winning talent. I'm OK with spending for the long haul. What they can't do is what they got themselves into prior to the slotting system: Drafting the likes of Ben Revere in the first round because he agreed ahead of time to third-round money. The Twins lucked out with him, but it's not sustainable to starve signing budgets. Fortunately, they have not backed off of spending on the draft and internationally like they have at the major league level.

[Badsmerf]

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

 

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

How is your post relevant? You think he deserves more than that after two 90 loss seasons and another possible?

[gunnarthor]

How is your post relevant? You think he deserves more than that after two 90 loss seasons and another possible?

 

Ryan has been GM for just over a year.

[mrkwx]

Good article, Parker. Just letting you know you forgot a period (or a semi-colon) in the third paragraph between 98th and Eddie.

[righty8383]

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

 

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

 

Is this an attempt to give Ryan credit for the improvement of our farm system? If so, you might want to take a look at who was in charge when a lot of our top prospects were aquired.

[diehardtwinsfan]

RE: Arcia. The only knock I see against Arcia at this juncture in his career is his ability to handle lefties. The past two years he's posted a 952 OPS v RHP but a 739 OPS v LHP. That's very Jason Kubel-like. Now, he could certainly improve upon that - especially as he catches up to the competition - but because he is going to face far more right-handed opponents over the course of his career, this is not necessarily something to be overly concerned over.

 

On that I agree... I just find it interesting that a toolsy guy who has outperformed Sano at nearly every stop and is on pace to make the majors at the same age is somehow 93 on the list when Sano is 12. I have no problems rating Sano high, as he has produced fairly well, but Arcia should be right up there with him. Not very guys make AA at 21, much less post a .900 + OPS with above average defense at the corner.

[nicksaviking]

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

 

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

 

Ryan only had a hand in two of those six players on the list, he made a nice trade for Meyer, (though some have argued he should have gotten more for Span) and he got Buxton because the Twins had the #2 overall pick, it would have been hard to pick a player at that point that would not have made the list. Bill Smith is actually behind most of the Twins top prospects, also including Rosario and Kepler.

[nicksaviking]

Ryan has been GM for just over a year.

 

Strange then that you give him credit for the farm system.

[righty8383]

I think Keith Law will have 7 on his list. The 6 that were on Mayo's list plus Rosario. I don't think there's any chance Berrios makes it. KLAW likes Kepler and has high hopes for him because a good ML career form Max could possibly help the sport grow in Germany. But he won't make the list either just yet. I suppose May has an outside shot.

[Nick Nelson]

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

 

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

People aren’t allowed to criticize his approach to the MLB roster while acknowledging that he and his staff have done a very good job rebuilding the farm system? This is not a black-and-white issue.

[old nurse]

The scouting director for the last 6 years has been Deron Johnson if you want to give credit to someone for finding the talent.

[Steve Lein]

It's encouraging to see the rebound of the farm system' date=' but I still think Rosario got short-changed, and should be on this list. I also think it's absolutely ridiculous that Castellanos is considered to be number 21, while Arcia is 93. Now that they're playing the same position, it astounds me that there would be that big of a gap, considering Arcia is less than a year older, and had more hits, doubles, triples, homers, and walks, with fewer strikeouts, in less at-bats than Castellanos. Just ridiculous.

[/quote']

 

Castellanos also hit over .400 in the Florida State League for half the season. I don't find it to be a slight to Arcia at all.

[righty8383]

The scouting director for the last 6 years has been Deron Johnson if you want to give credit to someone for finding the talent.

 

Johnson was a big reason the Twins drafted Adam Johnson In 2000:shoot:

 

 

But seriously you are right. Too often people are giving too much credit or blame to GMs for the success or failure of drafts. The GM his little or no input on the draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, the draft is on the scouting director, and how bad the GM is at assembling a good MLB roster. Trades are on the GM. So, between being awful at the ML level, and trading from the ML roster, Ryan has had a role in rebuilding the farm system. My issue is that it is not either or. You can do all that, and still sign free agents......Clearly the farm system is better. Clearly it should go up in the next two years as they ads two more top 5 picks, and Sano and Buxton are still in the minors.

[cmathewson]

It's amazing how different Bill Smith's philosophy was from Ryan's. I keep focusing on one quote, which Ryan said to LEN III after Smith was fired "I will be more patient than Bill." Pretty much sums it up. Smith was in perpetual "win now" mode. So, though 2010 was a glorious year, we saw the after affects in 2011, when the Twins had gone from penthouse to outhouse both on the major league and minor league levels.

 

That said, the good side of Smith's legacy will be in his signings of Sano, Kepler and Polanco. Though he was a comparative spendthrift and an impatient sort at the major league level (trading Ramos for Capps e.g.), he also spent more money on international prospects than any Twins GM.

 

One way or another, you have to spend money to get winning talent. I'm OK with spending for the long haul. What they can't do is what they got themselves into prior to the slotting system: Drafting the likes of Ben Revere in the first round because he agreed ahead of time to third-round money. The Twins lucked out with him, but it's not sustainable to starve signing budgets. Fortunately, they have not backed off of spending on the draft and internationally like they have at the major league level.