Notebook: PECOTA Hates the White Sox

[Jamie Cameron]

Today was a slow news day in MLB, punctuated by the annual drama of the PECOTA standings being released and a few late in the day MLB signings, including an OF option once linked with the Twins.PEOCTA Hates the White Sox

Twins fans rejoice, PECOTA hates the White Sox. The annual release of the PECOTA standings has the Twins repeating as AL Central champions for the 3rd straight year at 90.6 wins. More surprising Cleveland is projected to finish second at 85.7 wins, with Chicago third at 83.1.

 

 

This feels unlikely given the White Sox formidable offense and the additions of Liam Hendriks and 2018 least cheerful Twin Lance Lynn, but speculating on White Sox misery is always fun.

 

In other anecdotally surprising projections, PECOTA has Atlanta finishing 4th in the NL East at 82.4 wins and St. Louis 3rd in the NL Central at 80.6 wins. You can check out the full PECOTA projections for 2021 here.

 

Maeda to Continue Red Hot 2020 Form?

Speaking of interesting PECOTA numbers, check out Kenta Maeda’s projections for 2021.

 

 

DRA- is BP’s rate stat for pitchers where 100 is average and lower is better. PECOTA loves Maeda, predicting him to be a top five starter in MLB in 2021. Projections aren’t everything, but let’s put some respect on that man’s name. (Also, can we go get Woodruff at the deadline if the Brewers fall out of contention).

 

Video in the Dugout

 

Ken Rosenthal reports that players will have access to in-game video in the dugout in 2021 in a continuation of the practice from 2020. This is good news for the bevy of Twins hitters working on seeing the tiny 2021 baseball.

 

Spring Training Game Length Reduction

MLB is shortening spring training games. Games in the first few weeks of spring training can be shortened to 5 or 7 games at the agreement of both managers, while games after 3/14 can be shortened to 7.

 

 

One wonders how managers may take advantage of this when trying to get players up to speed and ramped up for a 162 game season after a 60 game season in 2020. It is also currently unclear how far in advance managers have to agree, and how shortened game lengths will be communicated to ticket holders at spring training.

 

Kirby Puckett Returns to Topps Cards

Lastly, Kirby Puckett returns to Topps products in 2021, beginning with this offering from 2021 Topps Series 1

 

 

Transactions

Here’s a roundup of transactions from around the league on Tuesday.

 

The Giants signed Jake McGee to a 2 year, $7MM contract.

 

The Marlins signed Adam Duvall. Duvall, once mentioned as a Twins outfield option, will make $2MM in 2021, with a mutual option for $7MM in 2022 which is connected to a $3MM buyout (similar to the contract of Alex Colome).

 

The Mets signed Jonathan Villar to a 1 year $3.55MM deal.

The Brewers signed Jordan Zimmerman to MiLB deal

The Tigers signed Greg Garcia to MiLB deal

The Angels signed Phil Gosselin to MiLB deal

The Mariners signed Taylor Guerrieri and former Twin JT Chargois to MiLB deals.

The Astros signed Steve Cishek to a MiLB deal

The Braves signed Nate Jones to MiLB deal

 

SEE ALSO

Projecting the Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 1.0

Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects: Honorable Mentions

Top 5 Seasons For MLB Hitters Over 40-Years-Old

 

Click here to view the article

[SoCalTwinsfan]

Since Maeda finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young, this is sort of a little bit of a step back for him.

[Doctor Gast]

I won't put a lot of stock in PECOTA. They could be off on a lot of things.

 

I don't like the shortening of games. The players need those games to ramp up.

 

Love that photo of Kirby, getting ready to crank on a ball with that high leg kick.

[old nurse]

Percolate states that they do mot give a number but a range. What is posted but a definite number. Percolate does tend to be more accurate for teams

 

Shorter spring games means less minor league players showing what they can do against other minor league players

[Jamie Cameron]

That's a good point. I guess its potential confirmation that PECOTA doesn't see Maeda's 2020 as a fluke, and seeing as he hadn't hit those heights before, that's pretty encouraging.

Since Maeda finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young, this is sort of a little bit of a step back for him.

 

[Jamie Cameron]

Thanks for reading!

 

PEOCTA is usually pretty accurate. It has trends of being off consistently on particular teams, but the Twins, Cleveland, and White Sox are usually pretty accurate.

 

I'm not sure how much managers will utilize the shorten game option. I was wondering from a fans point of view if it's shortened if I get some of my ticket cost back!

I won't put a lot of stock in PECOTA. They could be off on a lot of things.

I don't like the shortening of games. The players need those games to ramp up.

Love that photo of Kirby, getting ready to crank on a ball with that high leg kick.

 

[Trov]

I can get why PECOTA ranked sox where they are.  They did not perform well against good teams last year.  They crushed Det and KC and PIT, but beyond that they were at or below .500 against everyone else.  Yes some were only 3 games played and went 1-2.  However, the point is, when they have less percent of games against DET and KC counting for overall standing they will not look as good.  

 

Sure, they may beat up on other lower teams, but DET and KC really swung the standings for Sox.  PECOTA could be way off and Sox do well, but I can see where the rankings came from. 

[Jamie Cameron]

Good points! They definitely struggled against better teams.

I can get why PECOTA ranked sox where they are.  They did not perform well against good teams last year.  They crushed Det and KC and PIT, but beyond that they were at or below .500 against everyone else.  Yes some were only 3 games played and went 1-2.  However, the point is, when they have less percent of games against DET and KC counting for overall standing they will not look as good.  

 

Sure, they may beat up on other lower teams, but DET and KC really swung the standings for Sox.  PECOTA could be way off and Sox do well, but I can see where the rankings came from. 

 

[Seansy]

Those Cishek and Duvall signings are very good for their teams. 

[Fatbat]

Whiteys will finish 4th.

[Darius]

That projection is crazy.

 

The Sox offense could look a lot like the Twins’ did in 2019. But. They’ll have a slightly better pitching staff than we had that year, IMO.

 

If some of those young hitters take another step, Moncada returns to form, and they add Vaughn.....wow.

 

I think some forget they also lost Kopech to an opt-out last year. He could be a fairly high upside middle of the rotation guy for them, in addition to Gioltio, who’s a complete stud.

 

I’d be thrilled that projection were right, but it seems off base.

[TFRazor]

PECOTA can get in line. I hated them first.

[Eris]

Just curious, if the spring training game is reduced to 5 innings by an advanced agreement between the 2 teams, are the ticket prices going to be reduced by 5/9 of the original value.

 

I am not planning on going to Florida to watch spring training games his year. But if I were, I would not be happy with this 5 inning rule.

[Jamie Cameron]

Great question! There doesn't seem to be clarity on that at the moment, but I had similar questions.

Just curious, if the spring training game is reduced to 5 innings by an advanced agreement between the 2 teams, are the ticket prices going to be reduced by 5/9 of the original value.

I am not planning on going to Florida to watch spring training games his year. But if I were, I would not be happy with this 5 inning rule.

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm not surprised about the White Sox rankings. Outside of Madrigal, the entire starting lineup might strike out 150 times each. I'm not a PECOTA expert but I suspect those players tend to get devalued due to the higher unpredictability with high strike out totals. I'm not saying all those strikeouts are going to be a huge problem for Chicago on the actual diamond, but I understand why PECOTA might suspect they will.