Swiss Army Sparkplug: Luis Arráez's New Role

[Nick Nelson]

The Andrelton Simmons signing represents a big shakeup for Minnesota's infield alignment. While Jorge Polanco slides to the other side of second base, Luis Arráez is the one who is really upended by the move.

 

What will his role look like now?As rumors circulated of the Twins pursuing a shortstop in free agency, the rationale was clear enough: a two-for-one solution that both addresses a defensive weakness in the infield and fills internally the super-utility role vacated by Marwin González.

 

Most of us anticipated it would be the incumbent shortstop, Jorge Polanco, assuming the so-called "multi-positional everyday player" designation in such a scenario. Instead, the Twins are expressing an intent to have Polanco stepping in as new everyday second baseman, with Arráez becoming the new Marwin and playing all around the field.

 

In retrospect, maybe this shouldn't be all that surprising. Arráez was ushered into the majors under such a setup, splitting time as a rookie between second base, third, left field, and even a little shortstop. Polanco, meanwhile, had fully transitioned to second at Triple-A prior to arriving in the majors. He'll likely be an upgrade (perhaps a significant one) over Arráez defensively.

 

In order to make sense of Arráez's new arrangement, let's ask and answer a few key questions.

 

Is this a demotion for Luis Arráez?

 

Technically, yes, and I wouldn't blame him for feeling a bit miffed at first. But there will be no shortage of at-bats for the 23-year-old sparkplug. Consider that González ranked fifth among all Twins in plate appearances over the last two years, with 662. That amounts to about a 483-PA pace over a full season, which is a bit less than you'd hope for but still bordering on regular usage. The threshold to qualify for the batting title is 502, which I think is a good minimum target for Arráez and an easily achievable one. Especially if the Twins keep the DH spot open. (More on that shortly.)

 

Is Arráez lined up to be the Opening Day starter in left field?

 

I think so! Getting Arráez into the Opening Day lineup is about optics as much as anything – we addressed already the perception of a demotion role-wise; on top of that, what does it tell the kid if he's on the bench for this ceremonious occasion after batting .331 through his first two seasons? Left field is the only starting position not currently spoken for, and while I do believe Alex Kirilloff will take it over in fairly short order, he'll probably open in the minors.

 

While Jake Cave, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Brent Rooker may all factor into the early-season mix in left, I envision the Twins getting Arráez plenty of action there, including on Opening Day. It's the easiest way to include his essential bat into the lineup, and while he's hardly a defensive maven in the outfield, I'm not sure he's THAT overmatched. One of my distinct memories from Arráez's rookie season was being surprised by how capable he looked out in left, making 18 starts despite having almost zero experience there in the minors. With some time to prep in spring training I think he'll be fine – probably no worse than Rooker and not drastically behind Cave or Wade.

 

What are the biggest benefits to having Arráez in this role?

 

It plays more to his strengths. Arráez is frankly not a great defensive second baseman, and while he's not necessarily a standout glove anywhere, his ability to hold his own at multiple positions is more valuable than playing a so-so second base. That's true for the Twins and it's ultimately true for Arráez, who can make himself more marketable by proving versatile defensively.

 

From Minnesota's standpoint, I think the key is having premium insurance behind some of the team's most critical players. If Josh Donaldson goes down, the Twins can plug in one of their best hitters to replace him. Ditto Polanco. Byron Buxton gets hurt again? Slide Max Kepler to center, put Kirilloff in right, and plant Arráez in left.

 

With Arráez in the floating role, the Twins can maintain an A-lineup even while losing almost any major piece, without needing to fall back on a backup of the Marwin or Ehire Adrianza mold in regular duty.

 

What are the biggest downsides?

 

Aside from possibly damaging the relationship with Arráez, there is the question of whether this assignment is all that well-suited for him. González was so adept at, and accustomed to, playing all over the place that many of us likely came to take it for granted. His cannon arm was a big asset in the outfield and at third base, making up for diminishing athleticism.

 

Arráez isn't that much faster, and lacks the big arm in his toolkit. While he should be usable at many positions in short-term situations, it's worth wondering if he'd be truly palatable at third base over a lengthy period, or if his balky knees would hold up with daily starts in left field.

 

Does this make it less likely that the Twins bring back Nelson Cruz?

 

Gotta say, I think it does. One of the big advantages of having a guy like Arráez in the utility role is that Rocco Baldelli can feel all the more comfortable giving his position players regular rest, in part by rotating them through the DH spot. It also becomes much easier in this scenario to get Arráez his requisite at-bats. If everyone's healthy and rested, just pop him in at DH.

 

Granted, that's a "nice problem to have" kind of situation, especially with the Twins' recent health history, but the combination of a highly paid full-time designated hitter (who can't play any defensive position) and a 10th man who should absolutely be playing everyday feels a bit strange on the surface.

 

Does this make it more likely that the Twins trade Arráez?

 

Again: gotta say, I think it does. Seeing him bumped out of his seemingly entrenched role, one can't help but think back to Ken Rosenthal bringing up the idea back in December: "The potential to deal ... Luis Arraez, creates an interesting scenario in which the Twins could move shortstop Jorge Polanco to second and either sign a free-agent shortstop or trade for a 2021-22 free agent at the position." We've already seen part of that equation play out. Is the other shoe going to drop?

 

It's safe to say no Twins fan (or exec) is eager to see Arráez shipped out, but one should also keep in mind the type of return such a trade would bring. We're talking blockbuster talent that would majorly impact another area of the team. If someone comes knocking with a monster offer (and who could blame them?) it's now much easier for the Twins to say yes.

 

What do you think of Arráez's fit for the new role? How do you feel it affects other decisions still ahead of the Twins this offseason? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

 

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[CTTwin]

I'm not tickled about Arraez being the new 10th man. If his knee continues to be a problem it won't help being in left field.

Best to start looking at trade options (pitching).

We could use a fireballer or two.

[Richard Swerdlick]

As the lonely wife said to her husband, " Play me or trade me".

[theBOMisthebomb]

I'd be a terrible GM. I'm locked into the idea of Arraez long term with the Twins so the thought of trading him doesn't excite me. Although, logically, it seems to make sense I want to hold on to Arraez because he is "our guy".

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm interested in why the worst fielding SS in MLB will be an upgrade in fielding at 2B over Arraez? Was Arraez that bad at 2B the last 2 years?  I understand that Polanco's lack of arm strength will not be as big of a problem at 2B, and he will have fewer fielding chances at 2B than at SS, but that does not help him be > than Arraez would be at 2B. I don't think Polanco should be at 3B nor SS nor in LF,  and I agree that 2B would be Polanco's best position and that Arraez would be a better Super Utility player than Polanco, but these factors still do not have anything to do with making   Polanco be an improvement in fielding at 2B over Arraez. It is my contention that the fielding at 2B may have just gotten worse, as well as the fielding in LF, SS, and 3B when Arraez is in one of those 3 positions.

.I believe 2B is Arraez's best position, just as it is Polanco's best position.  Friends, the Twins have 2 below average to average fielding second basemen, who are really good hitters and who will be valuable assets to  the 2021 World Champion. Minnesota Twins. You heard it here first. 

[rdehring]

Agree with everything you said, Nick. You may be right and this increases the likelihood of a trade, but that is what I do not want to see. Hitters like Arraez come along so infrequently, this team better keep him long term. 

 

Expect he will need to see a couple hundred at bats at DH, which is why signing Cruz is becoming less likely.

[PopRiveter]

"If Josh Donaldson goes down, the Twins can plug in one of their best hitters to replace him."

 

This is what I expect to happen. Josh Donaldson is a broken, former star player. He won't play much for the remainder of this garbage contract and Polanco will be the 3rd baseman with Arraez returning to 2nd.

Signing Donaldson was bad decision, but they are deep enough to absorb it so long as they don't do something foolish like...

"Does this make it more likely that the Twins trade Arráez?"

[Major League Ready]

 

They won't be in any hurry to trade Arraez.

 

* He is under team control through 2025. 

* Who knows what his ceiling might be. He could be the next Tony Gwynn.

* Lewis staying at SS is not a given. He could CF or a utility man.

* Arraez is quite valuable in a utility role.

 

Now, if someone offers a haul for Arraez it could make sense.

 

Who is to say Polanco won't be the one to be traded. Again, no hurry. It does not make sense to trade Arraez or Polanco soon unless the haul can't be denied. It makes more sense to wait and see how Lewis and even Javier perform this year. How great would it be if Javier busted out this year?

[Aerodeliria]

I'm interested in why the worst fielding SS in MLB will be an upgrade in fielding at 2B over Arraez? Was Arraez that bad at 2B the last 2 years?  I understand that Polanco's lack of arm strength will not be as big of a problem at 2B, and he will have fewer fielding chances at 2B than at SS, but that does not help him be > than Arraez would be at 2B. I don't think Polanco should be at 3B nor SS nor in LF,  and I agree that 2B would be Polanco's best position and that Arraez would be a better Super Utility player than Polanco, but these factors still do not have anything to do with making   Polanco be an improvement in fielding at 2B over Arraez. It is my contention that the fielding at 2B may have just gotten worse, as well as the fielding in LF, SS, and 3B when Arraez is in one of those 3 positions.

.I believe 2B is Arraez's best position, just as it is Polanco's best position.  Friends, the Twins have 2 below average to average fielding second basemen, who are really good hitters and who will be valuable assets to  the 2021 World Champion. Minnesota Twins. You heard it here first.

 

Agreed

[dex8425]

 

I'm interested in why the worst fielding SS in MLB will be an upgrade in fielding at 2B over Arraez? Was Arraez that bad at 2B the last 2 years?  I understand that Polanco's lack of arm strength will not be as big of a problem at 2B, and he will have fewer fielding chances at 2B than at SS, but that does not help him be > than Arraez would be at 2B. I don't think Polanco should be at 3B nor SS nor in LF,  and I agree that 2B would be Polanco's best position and that Arraez would be a better Super Utility player than Polanco, but these factors still do not have anything to do with making   Polanco be an improvement in fielding at 2B over Arraez. It is my contention that the fielding at 2B may have just gotten worse, as well as the fielding in LF, SS, and 3B when Arraez is in one of those 3 positions.

Polanco is way more athletic and much faster than Arraez. This is why everyone is saying he will be better defensively at 2nd than Arraez. 

[mike8791]

Nick, kudos on a very informative article!  Thank you.  I'm surprised the Twins are pencilling in Arraez as their chief utility guy.   He is the exact type of contact/high OBP hitter the team needs to counter many of the all-or-nothing types who abound.  My fear is that this young, talented player might be unsettled to move around so much, resulting in a falloff in production.  I don't think his defensive weakness at 2B is nearly severe enough to move him from that position, which isn't nearly as critical as SS or 3B.

 

Nor do I think this Simmons addition will or should effect the team's need for a proven run producer like Cruz(or alternative) as DH in a lineup already weakened by Rosario's departure.

 

I was hopeful after Rosenthal's column that Arraez could be a huge trade bait to land a #1/2 starter, like Snell or Darvish, but that ship has sailed.  Now, maybe the only pitcher worth including in any Arraez trade would be Luis Castillo.  Unfortunately, the Reds are in dire need of a SS so Polanco(or even Lewis) might be a better key to getting that trade done.  If Castillo is untouchable, like many believe, why not try for Sonny Gray for Polanco?  

 

Bottom line, I'd like to keep Arraez, trade Polanco for someone like Gray, and sign one of the remaining utility players or Blankenship/Lewis.  Much better team with Gray in the rotation, Cruz, Arraez and Kirillof in the lineup.  The Twins have at least one good utility OF in Cave and certainly should be able to find a capable utility IF among what's still out there.

[adjacent]

My concern here is with the injuries that both had. 2nd base requires to rotate frequently, especially in a double play. That twisting put stress both on the knees and on the ankle. I hope the injuries are a thing of the past.

[twinkiesfan11]

Donaldson has a history of calf issues, Simmons has had ankle issues for two years, Polanco has two years of ankle issues and Arraez has balky knees. Recent history with this group indicates that there will likely be DL stints and plenty of scheduled rest, the depth will be very useful. There will be plenty of at bats to go around, no way would I even consider trading Arraez or Polanco without a crazy return. 

[denarded]

 

My concern here is with the injuries that both had. 2nd base requires to rotate frequently, especially in a double play. That twisting put stress both on the knees and on the ankle. I hope the injuries are a thing of the past.

Something I was thinking about also. Plus, 2nd Base has to do the blind turn for double plays

[tarheeltwinsfan]

A

 

Donaldson has a history of calf issues, Simmons has had ankle issues for two years, Polanco has two years of ankle issues and Arraez has balky knees. Recent history with this group indicates that there will likely be DL stints and plenty of scheduled rest, the depth will be very useful. There will be plenty of at bats to go around, no way would I even consider trading Arraez or Polanco without a crazy return. 

Also Polanco has a team friendly contract.

[chpettit19]

The Twins want Lewis to be their future SS, but he hasn't proven he can be. There isn't a guy in the starting IF who we should feel confident is going to stay healthy all year. Polanco plays a bunch, but he was clearly playing hurt last year. Both of those factors lead me to believe the Twins have no intention of, or desire to, move Arraez in a deal (unless completely blown away).

 

They're trying to compete for the foreseeable future and they need the depth to do that. If they move on from Arraez and Lewis isn't the player they hope he is they're looking at a hole in the middle infield next year. If they move him and we see injuries to any of the starting infielders who have all struggled with injuries in the last few years they're stuck with sub-optimal replacements instead of sliding Arraez in and not missing much of a beat.

 

As far as Cruz goes I think this lowers the chances of a resigning, but only a little. Don't know if you folks know this, but he's not young for a pro athlete. He was clearly hurt at the end of last year as well. Trading Arraez and having Cruz foul one off his shin or take a fastball to the wrist, or whatever (knocking on wood it doesn't happen) leaves the Twins in a spot to fill the DH spot with lesser players than Arraez. I think this is exactly the type of the situation the Twins want. They want 10+ guys who you can slot in and have faith in. 162 games is a lot. You need depth.

[JesusisLord7]

Arraez might be able to spell Donaldson quite a bit at 3rd. Frankly, I like Arraez more than Polanco at 2nd base. I'm going to give Polanco the benefit of doubt with his injury last year but he was terrible. Lounging at pitches, slapping the ball the other way etc. Either he just completely forgot his fundamentals or his injury was causing him not to apply proper balance and weight transfer hitting. I think he had like 3 hits in his last 50 at bats and his error (throwing) caused us a game in the playoffs. I'm glad we are getting back to a concept of defense. Simmons is a stud and so is Donaldson if he ever decides to consistently show up for work on the field.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

In 3,900 career innings at short, Polanco has essentially the same UZR/150 (-10.9) as Araaez does in 650 career innings at 2nd (-11).  Now, there's a huge swing between 2019 and 2020, so maybe that number is low and Arraez is better than this number shows.  But generally speaking guys get better defensively when they go from short to second, so if Arraez is just as bad at second as Polanco is at short, it seems pretty clear Polanco will be better at second than Arraez.

 

That being said, I'm an Arraez guy, and I would prefer to leave him at second and make Polanco the utility guy.  A previous poster mentioned that Arraez could be Tony Gwynn; Luis actually has better numbers than Gwynn at the same point in their careers--Arraez walks more and has more power, but also strikes out more.

 

However, given the relative injury proclivity of all four of our non-1B infielders, I do think it's a pretty decent chance that at least one will be on the IL at any given point.  Therefore, I'm not too worried about this;  if you assume 4 PA a game for each of these positions (which is probably low), that's 1,944 PA's that can be handed out, or essentially 500 per player.  Add in a couple of outfield games for Arraez and some DH days (Cruz will undoubtedly have a couple of stints on the IL, or not be on the team at all), and I feel confident that even with relatively good health, all four of these guys will qualify for the batting title.

[Squirrel]

This is what I wanted them to do last year ... get a higher quality SS and move Polanco to 2nd, and trade Arraez when his value was high. While they will still find regular at bats for him, as you said, it is still a demotion, and who knows how that sits ... hard to say. I just don't see either Arraez or Polanco as good backups at 3rd, unless they move Sano over from time to time ... or still have a trade or signing to make.

[mikelink45]

As long as Arraez is in the batting lineup I do not care, but do not remove his bat!

[Minfidel]

As a Cardinals fan growing up, Arraez makes me think of Jose Oquendo who plugged in just about everywhere, and was a real headache at the plate for the other team. Arraez might not be quite as versatile (trusting to memory, here), but is a better hitter. I want him and Cruz on the team. 

[billyp4444]

It's also time for Nick Gordon to prove it or move on. I'm very interested to see what he brings to the table this year. He should be able to add some depth. I guess where I going is if Arraez and/or Gordon prove capable this sets up Polanco for trade bait perhaps.

[TopGunn#22]

Arraez is no where near the defender Oquendo was for the Cards but is probably a better hitter.

I'm a BIG fan of Arraez but he's NOT Tony Gwynn O.K. ?  (he'll never run like a young Gwynn).

 

Polanco WILL be a better defender at 2B than Arraez.

In 2019 Arraez moved all over the place and he still HIT.

 

If the Twins don't trade Arraez he should be the leadoff hitter whenever he's in the lineup.

 

If I was to trade Arraez there is one scenario I would consider:

Ketel Marte is a CLEARLY superior player.   He's young and still has a couple of years of team control.  He's got more power than Arraez and he's much more athletic.   His value is 61.40.

 

I trade:

Arraez  43.4

Dobnak  10.00

Cavaco   7.60

Total Value:  61.00  (I'd throw something else in if I had to.

 

Marte would be our 2B-Man and Polanco would be our super utility.

(Marte is a very good 2B-man).

But Marte is also a good fielder in CF, 3B, either corner OF and could even play SS.

Marte is REALLY the super utility but because he's CLEARLY better defensively at 2B than Polanco that's where he starts.

However, when Buxton, Donaldson, whoever, get's hurt and needs some time MARTE can step right in and Polanco starts at 2B until the injured player comes back.

[Dr. Evil]

I like having bot Arrias and the turtle on the squad. Love their compete levels and attitudes. Infield and 3rd catcher/backup infielder. Done.