Tales from the Central: Detroit Tigers

[Ted Schwerzler]

The 2021 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us, and while the American League Central division looks like a two-horse race, there’s plenty of storylines to follow. What are those most engaged seeing?We’re more than well versed on the Minnesota Twins but what does the view of this club, and those it competes with, look like through the lens of invested influencers from around the division? The Detroit Tigers became the Fightin’ Gardy’s for a minute, and now are stockpiling former Minnesota players. Realistically though, they’ve also got an incredible farm system and look for a return to relevance soon.

 

Tales From the Central Series:

• Cleveland

Paul Sporer is known around the baseball world for a handful of different pursuits. He’s a fantasy guru at Fangraphs, well versed in the prospect world, contributes at ESPN, and also streams MLB The Show on Twitch. Here’s what he had to say about where things stand currently:

 

Twins Daily: Representing the Tigers in this series, what does your fandom look like? You write for Fangraphs and live in Texas, but what is the history and story behind falling for Detroit?

 

Paul Sporer: I grew up just outside of Detroit in Allen Park (on the map now that the Lions train there!) so we were just a quick 20–30-minute car ride from Tiger Stadium and went there a few times a year. I've been a Tigers diehard my entire life, living through mostly a fallow period as I was too young for 1987 which was their last good year before the 2006 renaissance. The 2006-16 run for the Tigers - while it did include 2 WS losses - was the best sports experience of my life. I've had good periods of time as a Red Wings and Pistons fan, but the Tigers have always been my #1 so them being great for an extended period was amazing.

 

TD: Obviously, we're on the downswing of Miguel Cabrera's career and in a lull for the organization at the Major League level. What are you most excited about for this team in 2021?

 

PS: Definitely the young pitching. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal got to debut in '20 and Matt Manning is close behind. Matthew Boyd has shown flashes for sure and if he and Michael Fulmer get back on track, all of a sudden, the Tigers could have a solid rotation as early as this upcoming season. That said, most of us have our sights set on 2022 as a season for marked improvement. I don't expect contention, but they need to start pushing toward .500 or better by then and use these next two drafts/int'l signing periods to deepen the cache of bats (though #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson is VERY exciting and could be up relatively soon as a college product with great hitting ability).

 

TD: Detroit has built a nice stable of prospects, and Casey Mize recently reached the majors. Who are you looking forward to seeing develop and do you think Detroit has the pieces on the farm for a return to relevance?

 

PS: Mize gets the most attention as a former #1 overall, but I'm really excited about Manning. There are multiple outlets that believe he can be the better of the two and not because of any flaws with Mize, but rather excellence of Manning. Skubal is a pop-up prospect who has really seen his stock soar and is the lone lefty of the three.

 

TD: If there was a prediction for Detroit regarding 2021 that required going a bit out on a limb, what would you throw out there?

 

PS: That the pitching comes together, and they push into the mid-70s with wins.

 

TD: Ending in 2014 the Tigers won four straight AL Central Division titles. They've now finished 5th in four of the last six and have done so in two straight. How far off is this team from getting back towards the top?

 

PS: They're probably looking at 2024 before they become a dark horse favorite the way we saw CWS and SD get hype before they emerged in 2020.

 

TD: Any team going through a rebuilding phase has hurdles, but what makes the 2021 season a success for the Tigers?

 

PS: At the risk of repeating a refrain, it's stability with the pitching. Fulmer is a former Rookie of the Year, Boyd has had extended bouts of success, and the three mega prospects are on the verge. Seeing all five be consistently solid (ERAs under 5.00) would be great and if 2-3 are legitimately good (low-4.00s or sub-4.00s ERAs) that'd be huge. ERA on its own doesn't determine success, but I'm using it as a shorthand of success. Honestly, I wouldn't care what the ERAs are if the skills indicator metrics (like SIERA, for example) are those aforementioned ranges.

 

TD: Wrapping this up, as a fan from a divisional opponent, what's your take on the Twins in 2021 and beyond?

 

PS: I think the Happ move is solid, but it shouldn't be all they do. He essentially replaces Odorizzi. Another arm in that tier would be great as well as someone to replace Trevor May. The offense is diminished, but far from bad, especially if Alex Kirilloff hits the ground running. The White Sox are the class of the division and will be picked by most to win the Central, but Twins are still contenders. They have two studs atop the rotation, some major bullpen pieces, and a quality lineup. I think finally getting that 150ish game season from Byron Buxton would also be a major win.

 

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[jrod23]

Agreed.  From an outsider's perspective, they're pitching coming up is their ticket to the fair.  Their pitching coming up is comparable to the Braves.  What ever has happened to Franklin Perez?  Washed and done?

 

Torkelson will be a nice replacement for Cabrera.  Won't be Cabrera, but will make his exit more tolerable.