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Twins to Sign Andrelton Simmons


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While Cruz may be considered the clubhouse leader, will we miss it if he is gone?  I don't think so as if he was the mentor for Sano, was it really that inspiring of mentorship?  Sano can whiff with the best of them or hit a double/HR.  Give me quality/quantity pitching arms, which I think we have enough to date, one more SP might be nice, but I think we have 5 in the books.  The way we count pitches and innings, I don't see the arms getting stretched out that we worry fatigue or injury.  Plenty of MLB bats on this team to be DH.  We have options and while Cruz is a bonus, year older and more money to make it work, isn't a good business decision in my opinion.  

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I am no expert, but his defense seems to be in steady decline. Per Baseball Reference his Range Factor per 9 innings has gone from a high of 4.92 in 2013 down to an abysmal 3.26 in 2020. Yes, small sample size and all that, but it's well below league average. Like I said, I'm no expert, but this, couple with questions about ankle injuries (I don't know anything about them, only that there have been several) makes me concerned about his one calling card: defense.

I have some of the same concerns but also have enough faith in this front office that they’re not throwing darts blindfolded. The Twins are definitely better at this kind of thing than the Angels and Simmons is absolutely better in the field than Polanco. With the right positioning and strategy, Simmons should improve, or at least hold steady over a single season.

 

But he’s definitely at the decline age for a middle infielder, though I have no real idea to what extent. His 2019 was injury-riddled and 2020 was only 60 games. We haven’t gotten sufficient data for Simmons since 2018, which makes spreadsheet analysis kinda worthless.

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I remember back when I was just a little kid. The Twins traded Jim Merritt to the Reds for an older SS named Leo Cardenas. He immediately became one of my favorites. Leo had a great 1969 and an above-average 1970. Five decades later, I'm hoping for a repeat performance from a defense-first SS.

 

PS - Merritt was extremely good for the Reds too,

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He played his last game on September 21. The Angels were 6.5 games out of the playoffs with 5ish games left to play. From what I read he cleared out his locker and texted the coaching staff and then just left and gave the pandemic as the reason.

 

I get these are strange times but if you're nervous about the pandemic why not opt out at the beginning of the season? What has changed his mind now a few months later when the US is actually in a worse spot than it was in September? To me, he realized the Angels weren't going to make the playoffs and decided to pack up and leave.

 

From what I can see on Fangraphs, the Angels were actually 2.5 out of the playoffs (the Blue Jays held the 8th spot), but with only 5 games left to play, Fangraphs had them pegged at only a 0.4% chance to make it, as they also had the Mariners between them and the Jays.  In the comments on MLBTR, Angels fans (who knows if this is true) were also saying that the Angels had already informed Simmons they wouldn't be bringing him back.

 

Given this, and the possibility of other factors that are not known (maybe someone in his immediate circle got Covid, the Angels haven't been the best-run organization so maybe he was tired of it), I don't think it's crazy that an injury-prone player would want to avoid a potential injury playing essentially meaningless games for an organization that wasn't going to be a future employer.  I don't particularly like guys quitting on seasons, and I wish he hadn't, but I'm willing to accept that 2020 was a totally bizarre year, and accept that bizarre things happening was always going to be de rigeur.

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Considering Semien for 18M I’d guess Simmons was actually the back up plan. I wanted offense, not defense, but this is still way better than no move.

Polanco may be the 2B and Arraez the utility guy to start, but I can’t see that sticking. Polanco is a much better athlete; I struggle to see Arraez at 3B and no way is he playing SS.

 

In the minors in 2019, Arraez played 430 innings on defense--37% at 2B, 35% at 3B, 25% at SS, and 2% in LF, so it's not like he hasn't dabbled at positions other than second.  In 2019, for the Twins, he actually played 35 innings at short, 130 at third, and 161 in left, which means 46% of his time actually came not at 2B.

 

That being said, given his knee issues, I do think 2B is the best spot for him, but if Polanco is the primary 2B with Arraez the utility, and not the other way around (which is the way I would prefer it), I assume Arraez plays once a week at third, twice a week at second (giving Polanco a rest one day, with the second day when Polanco spells Simmons at short), and then we go from there.  Of course, as soon as one out of Donaldson, Simmons, or Polanco gets hurt (which is very likely given particularly Donaldson and Simmons' history), Arraez becomes a full time 2B/3B again.

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I remember back when I was just a little kid. The Twins traded Jim Merritt to the Reds for an older SS named Leo Cardenas. He immediately became one of my favorites. Leo had a great 1969 and an above-average 1970. Five decades later, I'm hoping for a repeat performance from a defense-first SS.

 

PS - Merritt was extremely good for the Reds too,

Chico! -- on his baseball card.

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I'm not sure about the 1-year deal. The Twins do not appear to be "all-in" this year, so a longer deal would have made more sense.

 

If by not "all-in" you mean the Twins haven't traded away half of their top prospects and given out $300M in free agent money, then I suppose yes, they're not all-in.  However, if that's your definition of all-in, I don't think the Twins will ever be all-in unless MLB institutes a hard salary cap.

 

This is a great deal, as it maximizes the Twins flexibility, both this year and beyond, while limiting our risk to his decline which could happen at any time.  Given that next year's free agent market for shortstops is insane, the Twins could probably sign Simmons again next year if they wanted to for about the same price, if not less, even if he does have a good year.

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This is a really good signing.  I do wonder at Polanco's true feelings, not the ones that are in the open.  It has to be a set back, but if he handles it right we now have a really good infield from second to third.  We do not know about Polanco's health after last year.  We know Donaldson will probably miss some games as he battles his own physical limitations, we do not know how Arraez is after last years health issues and we also know that Rocco likes to rest players.  This really gives him the tools to do it.

 

This excites me.  Sano is the weak spot in the infield, but not in a position to really hurt us.  I like the Rooker/Sano/Larnach rotation for 1B/DH, but suspect something else will happen.

 

Now for the BP. 

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It's a one year deal so many seem to think it's a bridge to Lewis. But there is next to no chance Lewis just debuts on opening day of 2022. He's either playing this year, or getting called up later in 2022 after some seasoning. If it's this year, where does he play? If Simmons bat is terrible, which it might be, I could see Lewis bumping him to the bench late in the year. But if his bat is not terrible, are they really going to push their best defensive infielder out of his position to get the rookie reps? That goes over less well if the team is in the playoff hunt.

 

It would be nice if Lewis had some versatility; particularly because I don't think Arraez has the versatility being suggested. I'd in fact be looking to trade Arraez for starting pitching ASAP before those defensive deficiencies get too over exposed during the season. There are still other utility infielders they could sign on the cheap until Lewis is ready.

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Great signing!!!

That being said, I don't get the rush to move Arraez out of 2nd for the superior athlete.  Sounds crazy, but that doesn't justify Polanco being the better second baseman.  I'm not an analyst, but I look at numbers, and see Arraez as being a superior second baseman.  Also, wouldn't you want the more athletic of the two being the utility man?

 

I'm good with either though.  Glad Simmons is a Twin.

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Watched the highlight reel posted above, and was impressed how many were on relays, or alertly handling baserunning. Or that needed replay to overturn.

 

Some folk say this will give Lewis another year of seasoning. Perhaps they are right, but I look forward to him earning a call up, and benefiting (like all the other current infielders) from his mentorship.

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While he wasn't my first choice, it's a good signing but I wish they would have gotten him for 2 years. I'm not at all high on Lewis nor do I like the idea of Arreaz moving around so much but so be it. We don't need his offense though he won't strike out like Sano or others. His defense is almost as good as landing a 5th starter as he will help the pitchers a lot.

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The discussion on this thread around what to do with Arraez and Polanco is a good one. First, whatever plan the Twins settle on- it won't be static, they can always adjust the roles as they proceed. Importantly, they now have better options, and that in turn makes the team better (theoretically). As for Arraez - the dude can flat out rake. Rocco needs to find him 450+ plate appearances if he continues to hit be it 2B, 3B or LF or wherever. In 2019 he was serviceable on defense.

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The left side of our infield is gonna be fire. We have 4 really good players for 3 positions. To quote a super famous eloquent dude ... This, I like...

 

All of that is true if Donaldson can stay healthy..which...he didn't do last season. So dont hold your breath. 

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Next season the SS free agent market will be mega deep with lots of options. So the 1 year contract will not be a drag. Also if we resign Cruz it will likely be for 1 year only so we will have resources next offseason to sign a better power hitting SS.

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