Report: Twins To Sign LHP J.A. Happ

[Twodogs]

The 2020 version of Maeda fits into 30 MLB rotations. The Twins changed his approach and he took a huge step forward last season. The question is whether that is sustainable and in what capacity but had the Dodgers controlled a version of Maeda that good, there's a zero percent chance they deal him for as little as they did.

 

The guy finished second in Cy Young voting, for crying out loud. Let's not downplay how good he was or suggest 29 other teams wouldn't love to have him.

 

It will be interesting to see how he does over a full season, I live in Dodger territory and I know dodger fans had little confidence in Maeda over the long haul. He was good in spots here and there and that's pretty much how they used him.

 

God I hope he can repeat his performance this year over 32 starts and become an annual Cy Young candidate, but my Midwest cynicism leads me to look at what he was before the Twins got him. Which by the way isn't bad, but again he doesn't match up well with Cole, Bieber, Scherzer, etc....

 

Also, by the way who would you take out of the Dodgers rotation so as to insert Maeda? Gonsolin 8 starts 2.31 era? May 10 starts 2.51 era? Or Urias, Buehler, Kershaw? Just curious.

[Major League Ready]

 

Also, by the way who would you take out of the Dodgers rotation so as to insert Maeda? Gonsolin 8 starts 2.31 era? May 10 starts 2.51 era? Or Urias, Buehler, Kershaw? Just curious.

 

This is how you build a powerhouse. Draft and develop. Not a free agent among them. 

 

Tony Gonsolin - Round 9
Dustin May - Round 3
Julio Urias – International (450K Signing Bonus)
Walker Buehler – 24th overall pick
Clayton Kershaw – 7th overall pick

 

On the position player side they developed Bellinger / Seager / Smith / Pederson Verdugo and pick-ed up Muncy / Singer for nothing and there is Justin Turner. The Dodger FO and the rest of the organization has done a phenomenal job and they are going to have a long run in contention.

 

[SkyBlueWaters]

 

Look at the Twins best pitchers. I mean where in the Dodgers rotation does Maeda fit in? He is probably the Twins best pitcher at least last year he was. Think about that for a second, the guy who is the Twins best probably doesn't even fit into the Dodgers rotation at all. In fact, Maeda didn't like pitching for the dodgers because he spent so much time in the bullpen. Now the Twins try to solve their rotation issues with a dude who likely slots in 4th behind Maeda? So either the Twins need to figure out a way to get a stud in a trade such as Castillo, etc.... Or they need to focus on getting their hitting and defense better. You can't really compete against the Dodgers and the Yankees by taking their pitchers that they don't really want and then using them against their Aces?? I think the Twins would be better off looking for more hitting or more defense or something else that you can out do those teams with? Or go big and get a real Ace to try and match up with their Aces. I like Happ, but he won't be the guy that helps the Twins win playoff games, they better hope Duran or Balazovic develop and can come up at the end of the year and surprise teams which would have a lack of information on some new guys.

 

Bingo.

 

This is spot on.  If we make the playoffs, the point becomes competing with the best to win in short order.

 

The playoffs are *all about* small sample size. For example, if I bring up Reggie Jackson, 3 swings of the bat, 3 home runs, are you unclear what's referenced? 

 

Do we need to clarify that it's the final game of the 1977 world series, and the Yankees beat the Dodgers?

 

And is what Jackson did diminished for being a "small sample size"?

 

The point is, the playoffs are all about win now or go home--and I'd think we Twins fans know that as well as anyone, at this point.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It will be interesting to see how he does over a full season, I live in Dodger territory and I know dodger fans had little confidence in Maeda over the long haul. He was good in spots here and there and that's pretty much how they used him.

God I hope he can repeat his performance this year over 32 starts and become an annual Cy Young candidate, but my Midwest cynicism leads me to look at what he was before the Twins got him. Which by the way isn't bad, but again he doesn't match up well with Cole, Bieber, Scherzer, etc....

Also, by the way who would you take out of the Dodgers rotation so as to insert Maeda? Gonsolin 8 starts 2.31 era? May 10 starts 2.51 era? Or Urias, Buehler, Kershaw? Just curious.

There are certainly questions whether Maeda can keep it up and in what capacity but Dodgers fans saw a very different version of Maeda than we saw last season. Their opinions aren't really relevant to the 2020 version of the pitcher. For example, his K% went up a whopping 5% while going from the NL to AL, where he faced a DH instead of a pitcher 11% of the time. His peripherals improved across the board, which isn't an accident. His K% was such an improvement that it launched him all the way to eighth out of all qualifying pitchers in baseball.

 

I expect to see some kind of regression Maeda but have no idea the extent of that regression. The numbers back up him being a much better pitcher going forward, I just don't expect him to maintain "second in Cy voting" good.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Yes, and that was painful to watch, but it also was only two games. There were plenty more.

 

Remember when the offense staked E. Santana and Berrios to a 3-0 first inning wild card lead at Yankee Stadium and we lost 8-4?

 

How about getting swept 6-4, 5-2, and 6-1 in 2010?

 

To be clear, you're saying that in 2010 the offense scoring 7 runs across 27 innings was not an issue?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Bingo.

 

This is spot on.  If we make the playoffs, the point becomes competing with the best to win in short order.

 

The playoffs are *all about* small sample size. For example, if I bring up Reggie Jackson, 3 swings of the bat, 3 home runs, are you unclear what's referenced? 

 

Do we need to clarify that it's the final game of the 1977 world series, and the Yankees beat the Dodgers?

 

And is what Jackson did diminished for being a "small sample size"?

 

The point is, the playoffs are all about win now or go home--and I'd think we Twins fans know that as well as anyone, at this point.

 

Small sample size is relevant to what happened only insomuch as it's being used to predict what will happen.  For example, if you had predicted Reggie Jackson would hit homers in every at bat in the 1978 World Series, you'd be falling prey to small sample size bias.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I will agree with you there, it is more about the regular season. I just think we have a lot of those guys already in house, capable of beating average to bottom-feeder MLB teams.  While I think a lot of Twins fans would like to see solid improvement (ala the Chisox this winter, who finished only one game behind us), this feels like treading water.

 

But honestly, I would pay good money if, come late October, the Twins were advancing in the playoffs and you had a chance to say I told you so. February approaches.  Spring training is near. (Oh, thank god.) 

 

When I see the stellar rotations of other teams that look to be built to go deep into the playoffs, I'm a bit concerned--maybe I'm too skeptical. 

 

You're right, we do have a lot of those guys in house already, albeit all with question marks.  Now we have one more, which means you're that much less likely to have all of your options fall flat on their face.

 

Count me as one of the people that want to see improvement, and I would not call this improvement so much as I would call it insurance against decline.  That being said, the offseason is not over yet.  There are still players that can be signed, and trades that can be made, so the frustration over lack of moves is at least partly attributable to impatience.

[Twodogs]

There are certainly questions whether Maeda can keep it up and in what capacity but Dodgers fans saw a very different version of Maeda than we saw last season. Their opinions aren't really relevant to the 2020 version of the pitcher. For example, his K% went up a whopping 5% while going from the NL to AL, where he faced a DH instead of a pitcher 11% of the time. His peripherals improved across the board, which isn't an accident. His K% was such an improvement that it launched him all the way to eighth out of all qualifying pitchers in baseball.

 

I expect to see some kind of regression Maeda but have no idea the extent of that regression. The numbers back up him being a much better pitcher going forward, I just don't expect him to maintain "second in Cy voting" good.

https://www.mlb.com/news/kenta-maeda-an-ace-for-twins?partnerId=zh-20210311-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=0ptN%2FaSmW9CHpiaY8Ktw8lw7e8AqXSr0e8337Zo6igw7oKLUimVeODGISs0eQNlDG7kk3aQjGKtwLj1GALrpvQ%3D%3D&bt_ts=1615466572077

 

This article backs up your thought process. It also seems like, and I know Spring training doesn't mean anything, that so far Maeda and Berrios for that matter have looked untouchable. Hope they keep it up and can get those relief pitchers going too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For example, his K% went up a whopping 5% while going from the NL to AL, where he faced a DH instead of a pitcher 11% of the time. 

Old post, first time seeing it, but Maeda only faced a pitcher 7.3% of the time in LA -- it's not quite an even distribution since the pitchers bat last and SP often get removed before that spot comes up the same number of times as the higher lineup spots. (And of course pitchers are regularly pinch-hit for as well.)

 

And while Maeda certainly dominated pitchers (74 K in 166 PA!), that was offset a little bit by pitching some out of the pen in LA too (58 K in 168 PA, or 34.5 K% as a reliever, vs 25.8 K% as a starter).

 

Also league K% has been climbing -- actually it was *much* higher in the 2020 AL/NL Central divisions, which Maeda faced exclusively in 2020 without a DH, than it ever was in the wider NL with pitchers hitting:

 

2016 NL: 21.5%

2017 NL: 21.9%

2018 NL: 22.6%

2019 NL: 23.0%

2020 AL/NL Central: 24.9%

 

FWIW, the rest of MLB only had a 22.8 K% in 2020.