Report: Twins To Sign LHP J.A. Happ

[Darius]

I love it, if there’s more to come.

 

Without another middle of the order bat, maybe two, were not a playoff team.

[Dr. Evil]

Good 4th starter adition. Fill the 5 in house and I think we are in good shape.

 

I don't understand why replacing Polanco is viewed as such an emergency by some. I understand and have read the data. It just seems like we need a reliever and the rest is in house. Oh and also sign Cruz.

[NickPuntos562OPS]

Happ is all kinds of okay.  If he's the only starting pitching addition they had better being spending big in the bullpen or lineup.

[Old Twins Cap]

He's an asset.

 

Look, like any business, a Club takes its money and turns it into a physical asset.  Hopefully you fairly value the asset and he produces. 

 

At some point during the season, depending on needs, depth, performance, place in the standings, you flip that asset for something else.  Or you keep him.

 

Not a big deal.  Standard operating procedure for MLB clubs.  And certainly not worth getting worked up over.  Or excited. 

 

Sometimes you overpay, sometimes under, sometimes you hit the jackpot.

 

But, you definitely roll the dice.  If you don't spend money, you just pay more in taxes next year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Could have signed Kirby Yates instead and saved 2 million  or more.. Bad move.

[Dman]

I am just happy to see them spending money on pitching.  They need to sign or trade for another pitcher.  The young guys are coming but best to break them in slow.  We have room a for few more guys lets go getem.

[USAFChief]

Ick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As a second move, this is fine. Happ is decent enough.

 

If this is their starting pitching move, ick.

[bobs]

Still think Odorizzi would look good in the #4 hole

[HrbieFan]

Why do Twins fans think every off-season the team will turn into the Yankees or Dodgers. No one went to games last year and probably won't this year either.

 

I love this signing! Happy isn't a Cy candidate, but he is very good and very reliable. Anyone remember the rag arms we had at the 4 & 5 spots in our WS years? Now please go out and resign Cruz, get a backup MI and another RP

[Otto von Ballpark]

Happ is a decent pitcher, and every team needs those on its staff -- but it's worth noting how little the Yankees regarded Happ in the postseason (and how much Happ's own performance reinforced that). The Yankees played 21 postseason games over Happ's 3 seasons there, and Happ only got 1 start (for 2 innings). Only 4 relief appearances too, suggesting he may have been somewhere around 7th or 8th on the bullpen depth chart. All of this while Happ was fully healthy, and the rest of the staff often had notable limitations and absences.

 

Happ's postseason line with the Yankees: 5 G, 8.1 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 4 HR, 10.80 ERA

[h2oface]

 

Happ's postseason line with the Yankees: 5 G, 8.1 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 4 HR, 10.80 ERA

Now that is down right depressing.

[TheMatt]

I guess I should rephrase my initial disappointment. O still am disappointed. But since he cost market price, as well as everyone else, I'm expecting the payroll to be at least 150

[sdangus]

I think he is Joe Musgrove without giving up prospects.

 

 

[rv78]

Typical Twins move. Add Depth. Trying to catch Lightning in a Bottle. Hope and a Prayer. 

[umterp23]

The talk has been a 4th or 5th starter because we have our top 3 on the board at SP right now.  So this should be viewed as a 4th and 5th guy.  Is it a splashy name, probably not, but it is a solid addition based on stat lines.  38 years old that has been very reliable and a workhorse.  With analytics the twins love, he is 5 innings every time you hand him the ball and an occasional 6 or 7 and we are glad we have him.  

Splashy SP signing, do we need it for big bucks?  Don't think so.  I believe the 5th spot will be filled with the young guns and that is fine with me.  Signing Cruz, won't happen until MLB decides on NL DH position.  So, Cruz is playing his options as FA and I'm fine with that.  Middle of Feb and Cruz can hop on board or not.  Cruz is valuable but at $15M, he potentially is a team moves liability financially.

[beckmt]

I am just ok with this move, if he hits a steep decline, you can just cut ties, if he pitches ok he is worth the $8.  Better than tying up $12 million a year for 3 or 4 years and then have the pitcher fall off a cliff.  Also, you give you up and coming pitchers a year to see what they have and some of them will be here later this year or early next.

But then please add a very good reliever or two. Most of the ones I wanted have already been signed.

[jmlease1]

I'd rather spend $8M on a depth starter than that kind of money on a reliever. It's just got much higher potential for real impact. He's the #4, behind Pineda, but expecting all your starters to be healthy the entire season is unrealistic, which is why you don't want to go into the season needing to fill 2 slots in the rotation from unproven guys in your system: those guys are probably going to get their shots anyways as we go 7-8+ guys getting starts.

 

It's possible Happ is cooked, but that's why this is a 1 year deal.

 

It's not a major splash move, but it's a "raise the floor" move and those have been critical to the team's success in the Falvey/Levine era: trying to make sure they don't hand off piles of innings to guys who can't pitch/aren't ready to pitch in MLB. Yes, you need top-end talent to compete for a title, but reducing the number of ABs taken and innings pitched by bad players is also important in getting you there in the first place.

[Wizard11]

It would appear to me that Happ has outpitched Odorizzi for the past 5 seasons.  My opinion is this signing does improve the team.  Plenty of time left in the offseason for more constructive roster moves.  It may seem right now that we are “losing” the off-season to the White Sox.  Perhaps we will.  I trust this front office and I respect that they play the “long game” rather than reacting to other team’s moves.

[wabene]

Now that is down right depressing.

Thankfully the Twins aren't counting on their #4 starter for the playoffs, more of a depth piece for the marathon regular season.

[Platoon]

 

it's strange to me that $8 million for one year of a left-handed starting pitcher who has had a sub-4 ERA in 5 of the last 6 seasons is an 'overpay', but so many people want to pay Nelson Cruz whatever he wants... 

 

I like this signing. He's probably the Twins #3. He could be their top guy. Yes, he's 38, but he's not reliant on velocity. If he stays healthy, which he has, I think this is a really solid signing for the Twins. 

This isn’t a godawful signing, but it brings up two issues.

 

If he is better than anything your minor leagues can produce in the SP area, then there ain’t much down there. 
 

A) If he ends up the teams #1, as you speculated,  then it’s gonna be a long year. 

[rdehring]

I like this signing. If he pitches as well as he has the past couple years he could battle Pineda and a yet to be signed/acquired starter for the #3 spot in the rotation...my hope is they bring Odorizzi back. If age starts to take its toll and he slips a bit, he then battles Dobnak and others for the #5 spot. 

 

Should he be in the hunt for #3, then Dobber and the other kids provide much needed depth after Odor or someone else is brought in. As for blocking the young starters, our only concern would be for Balazovic or Duran and neither of those will be ready until mid-season, at the earliest.

[chpettit19]

 

This isn’t a godawful signing, but it brings up two issues.

 

If he is better than anything your minor leagues can produce in the SP area, then there ain’t much down there. 
 

A) If he ends up the teams #1, as you speculated,  then it’s gonna be a long year. 

Problem with your reasoning is that you're assuming for him to be the best pitcher on the staff it means the guys you perceive as better than him have to come down to the level you perceive him at. I think Seth was suggesting he has shown the ability to pitch above the level you expect those ahead of him in the rotation to pitch at. And getting out of Yankee stadium should be a natural boost to his stats.

 

I don't know if your comment on the minor leaguers means you think if they can't outperform him this year they're not really prospects, but I hope that isn't the case. These comment sections get so many "call up the young guys and see what we have in them" comments it's insane. You don't take someone with a 7th grade education, put them in college, watch them fail and say "see, not actually that smart." Prospects having missed an entire season shouldn't be relied upon to perform to MLB standards early this year. Calling up prospects to "see what you have in them" is a recipe for disaster. Promoting young players is a very tough balancing act. Everyone wanted Buxton up to "see what he can do" and that was a complete disaster. 

 

If your comment on the minor leaguers was referring to Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer type younger pitchers who have debuted I guess all I can say is they've shown the level they're currently at and relying on them for big roles this year would not be a move many teams with World Series aspirations would make.

 

I'm not thrilled by this signing, but a deeper dive into Happ shows he has been more than serviceable even at his advanced age. Don't agree with Seth that he could be their #1, but #3 Pineda type seems like a reasonable expectation.

[Vanimal46]

I read Gleeman's article on the Athletic, where he mentioned Happ changed his pitch mix in 2020 to throw more sliders and generated good results. 18.7% of his pitches were sliders, generating a whiff on 31.7% of swings, along with the best spin rate (2,260 RPM) and most horizontal movement (2.5 inches) of his career. 

Sounds like a Wes Johnson special to me. Let's hope this works out as well as the Rich Hill signing last year. 

https://theathletic.com/2335396/2021/01/21/j-a-happ-twins-free-agency-needs/

[Brock Beauchamp]

This isn’t a godawful signing, but it brings up two issues.

 

If he is better than anything your minor leagues can produce in the SP area, then there ain’t much down there.

 

A) If he ends up the teams #1, as you speculated, then it’s gonna be a long year.

The Twins will need, at minimum, seven starters this season, probably more like 8-9 over 140+ games or whatever they end up playing.

 

Relying on the minors for slots #4-9 is a good way to ensure a losing season.

 

The kids will get their shots either way but it’s bad planning to rely heavily on them from day one.

[Aerodeliria]

OK. Let's get a SS!

[jrod23]

 

Was hoping a rookie would take the number 5 spot, or a series of rookies until one stuck......

 

Same here.  I'm a big fan of Dobnak, but say he continued to trend downward, I think we'd put him in the pen w/that slider of his, and open up an opportunity for Balazovic or Duran.  We're finally getting to a point where we have highly touted rookies on the cusp.  They're going to take their lumps too, but we just need to let them grow, as we did with Berrios.  It's going to be hard to stay patient in a playoff push if our glorified rookies wouldn't be successful.  We let Berrios grow, but we weren't all too competitive then.

 

Just remembered though, that we also have Lachlan Wells, Griffin Jax, and Bryan Sammons also wanting to make a debut.  It seems like we're more likely to see one of those guys first being Balazovic and Duran haven't been above a very short amount of AA.  Although, I'd LOVE to be wrong about that.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

 

No longer will we be Happless in the postseason!

 

He could be an asset. The context, of what else is done in the off-season, will determine whether to say "meh" or "good." It's the kind of signing a cellar-dweller might make while waiting for the next wave of prospects to arrive; or it could be a signing a contender makes to solidify the roster.

 

Are we also signing Samuel L. Jackson?

 

I approve.

 

As far as Happ's signing, also thumbs up, even though i would give that to most any signing.

 

Happ is a player, and i look forward to seeing how he can help. Mostly i'm just too lazy to form well considered expectations.

 

And as for Mr. Jackson, my guilty pleasure is his role as the Octopus in The Spirit. "Toilet's are always funny!"

[nicksaviking]

 

This isn’t a godawful signing, but it brings up two issues.

 

If he is better than anything your minor leagues can produce in the SP area, then there ain’t much down there. 
 

A) If he ends up the teams #1, as you speculated,  then it’s gonna be a long year. 

 

He's been a top 40 pitcher over the past five years. He's been better than Odorizzi in four of those five years and most people seem to want him back. In fact Happ is #38 in fWAR since 2016, Berrios is #35. The Yankees had three starters hit free agency this year and I keep seeing people ask for the other two even though Happ was better than Paxton and virtually identical to Tanaka, so it's not like he's washed up.

 

I mean, it's not exciting and the Twins have more work to do, but as far as non-needle-moving moves go, this one was pretty good.

[saviking]

All I can say is we are better off today than we were yesterday ..