Minnesota Should be Following the Padres Lead

[Ted Schwerzler]

It is often suggested that World Series championships aren’t won in the offseason, and that remains to be a tried-and-true statement. The Padres are the cream of the crop this winter, and Minnesota has no reason not to follow their lead.Just two years ago the San Diego Padres won just 66 games. Jump ahead another season and they won 70 in what seemed like a promising year, a second straight campaign with 90 losses. In a pandemic altered 2020 they leapt forward to the tune of a 37-win tally, or what can be extrapolated to a 99-win pace over 162 games. They had arrived, and then General Manager A.J. Preller decided he wanted more.

 

For the past few seasons San Diego has developed and drafted their talent. Fernando Tatis Jr. is a superstar. They have among the best farm systems in the game. Supplementing took place in the form of Manny Machado. Once it became clear they were ready, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish were all added to the mix while keeping the bulk of their prospects intact. Call Preller a magician if you must, but what he’s really doing is orchestrating opportunity.

 

Enter the Minnesota Twins. After an ugly 103 loss campaign in 2016, the Paul Molitor-led group responded to win 85 games a year later. While a step forward, it was clear Molitor wasn’t the man for a front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, so waiting for their opportunity made sense. In 2019 the group went gangbusters in year one under Rocco Baldelli, setting offensive records and winning 101 games. They signed Josh Donaldson in the offseason and now were pushing chips in. Following 36 wins a year ago, questions surround the offseason and it’s becoming time for some answers.

 

The markets in Minnesota and San Diego are not all that dissimilar. Back in 2019 Statista reported revenues for the Padres of $299 million. The team directly behind them? Minnesota, at $297 million. Last year the Padres prorated payroll checked in 11th in baseball, at $73 million, while the Twins came in 17th (just below league average) at $55 million. A year before that however, San Diego was 24th at $104 million while Minnesota was 18th at $125 million.

 

Winter is hardly over, and to be quite frank we don’t even have agreed upon rules for the 2021 season at this point, but the reality is that it’s time for the Twins to step up. There’s been rumblings that Minnesota is lurking and ready to make some splashes, but that absolutely has to turn into reality. Marcus Semien would be a great addition. The return of Nelson Cruz makes sense. Jake Odorizzi could be a fit and swinging some deals for more starting pitching should be on the docket as well.

 

For teams in mid-market capacities as the Twins are, there is an importance to have prospects pan out. The cost certainty and effectiveness of pre-arbitration money is necessary. What makes be perfectly executed however, is understanding which prospects contribute to a window and which ones bring benefit as tradeable assets. It’s hard to stomach dealing names like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, or Trevor Larnach. Unless they coincide in the midst of similar opportunity however, their value becomes one of diminishing returns.

 

The idea for the Twins is not to swap out every top prospect for proven commodities, but instead to dissect, deploy, and disperse those unproven assets in the most effective way. Preller accomplished talent acquisition at an extremely high level while still holding onto the greatest parts of his farm system. Minnesota doesn’t have the same top end or depth as San Diego, but there’s definitely pieces that would warrant a real and substantial return.

 

I have no problem with the front office believing in their infrastructure; they’ve proven that it can bear fruit. I can believe in Ian Gibault or Brandon Waddell becoming the next Matt Wisler because of the track record the staff has established. What has to happen beyond there is the acquisition of already high ceiling players that can then shoulder the load and potentially take more steps forward.

 

Baseball is not a sport in which one or two players can carry an entire club to a championship. Minnesota has one of the stronger groups in the sport prior to making these necessary moves. Adding more top end talent, even if that comes at the cost of future prospect production or additional payroll commitments, is where this club finds itself needing to execute. It won’t be on Royce Lewis or Jordan Balazovic to end a Postseason skid a couple of years from now. The opportunity to make a real run with significant talent is right now, and commitment is something necessary to be seen from the Pohlad family right on through the front office.

 

San Diego has created their opportunity and are now pushing the envelope. It’s not something that Minnesota is out of their league in doing, and it’s best they get out of their element and do it.

 

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[KFEY93]

The odds of anyone big that is going to actually contribute on day 1 and want to be here being signed are slim, per the track record with this team. If we play a full season I see them taking a step back and maybe being .500. We won 36 games in a shortened season but our weaknesses were revealed in the play offs. This team has no edge/focus/clutch whatever you want to call it. When it comes down to crunch time this team does not know how to dig deep and focus on what NEEDS to be done, specifically hitting. Too busy worrying about launch angle and homers, instead of making solid contact and actually getting people on base and scoring. Until proven otherwise, this team and current roster will always be decent to good, but never great. 

[denarded]

Good analogy, Ted

[TopGunn#22]

Good article Schwerz, well stated.  The Twins have won the last 2 Division Titles but the Indi...the Cleveland Baseball Team always pitches well and the Chi-Sox are on a mission.

 

The Twins have LOTS of young and affordable players making it reasonable to expect some moves for veteran talent.

Arraez, Garver, Jeffers, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, everybody not named Taylor Rogers in the BP are all at affordable levels.

Lewis should be on the team soon.

Balazovic and Dhuran not far behind.  Enlow, Chalmers and others too. 

Sano at $11 million is not a death blow, but to trade him would be wonderful.

Maeda, Berrios and Pineda aren't breaking the bank.  

The only "heavy" salary they have is Donaldson and we should expect more out of him in 2021.  Maybe Cruz for one more year.  

 

The teams willing to stretch a little now will be well set up to compete in 2021-2022.

 

The Twins NEED to make some major moves to remain competitive with the hard charging White Sox.

 

The Twins are uniquely positioned to make some splash moves with talent on hand and talent set to arrive SOON and a payroll that is certainly manageable.

 

YES !    They can afford Bauer.   

YES !    They need to determine which tradeable assets are key to future success and which should be moved to acquire major league talent for 2021 and beyond.

 

Whether that talent is a Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, German Marquez, Jon Gray, or a Paxton, Castellanos, Hendricks, Hand, Story, Semien, Simmons, Didi Gregorious,

Ketel Marte, Archie Bradley, Kiki Hernandez  ETC....   They need to figure that out FAST.

 

Before the padres or White Sox acquire EVERYBODY.     

[nicksaviking]

I don't know, the Twins farm is pretty good, but the Padres was a bonanza of top prospects when they started making moves. 

 

I don't think the Twins have enough top prospects to develop a young home-grown core AND make giant splashy trades. I think it has to be one or the other, or a just a little bit of both.

[mnfireman]

San Diego's projected payroll for 2021 sits at $153.5 M, let's all go to the Google Payroll that was on here and build to that number. Bet a pretty good team is theoretically built, just gotta them to actually sign here.

[mike8791]

Ted, you've expressed what a lot of us on this site feel right now - impatience, despair, and frustration.  As a resident of Chicago, where criticism of team's management is a blood sport(especially now with the Ricketts/Cubs dismantling) it has always amazed me how passive both the media and blog sites like TD are with regards to Pohlad ownership all these years.  Where is the anger and calls for action for a team with a wide open window, solid major league roster, and an above average farm system with some top level prospects?  Why is the FO lurking in the weeds while the Pods and Preller are gobbling up the available talent?

 

The answer has to start with the banker's mentality of the Pohlads.  They still don't understand that success depends on investment, not each year's P&L statement.  Either that, or they are just simply uninterested in taking the necessary risks to bring home a championship to Minnesota.  With such an attitude, is it any wonder that their FO picks share this attitude, as witnessed by their passivity this year.

 

San Diego, with a similar market to the Twin Cities is upping their budget to about $150MM to give the powerhouse Dodgers a real run for their money.  Why not the Twins?  The answer is ownership indifference to the ultimate goal.  So Falvine sits by the side of the pool watching and waiting for some small fish to come their way.  This is a sure way to mediocrity and eventually, back-sliding.  

 

As many have pointed out, this is an ideal off-season for nabbing some real talent without costing a fortune.  We all see the needs for the team in 2021 - a big addition to the rotation, a proven closer, and adding some professional hitters who are not just all-or-nothing sluggers.  Why the FO won't pull the trigger is the big offseason question.  Unfortunately, there appears to be little urgency among fans, the media, and ownership to criticize this approach.  I guess that's what they mean by "Minnesota Nice".

[bobs]

  I think Ted speaks for a large part of Twins Territory.

[specialiststeve]

Agree that there are moves to be made.... 

 

Don't agree that we need to be in a hurry....

  

Lots of talent out there that can be had. Waiting and having patience is hard but getting the best value comes with patience. We need to "think" Tampa Bay. We want to be making value deals... and that is what will keep us on top. 

 

Zero chance we land Bauer... So stop thinking that direction as you are setting yourself up to be disappointed. 

 

Plenty of time to make deals ... like most teams we are waiting for the market to be set while getting low risk deals that have great value. Understand that we did that and had the second best era in the AL... believe we will be top 5 again. 

 

Patience... patience.... patience.... 

 

 

[DocBauer]

Ted, outstanding piece! Agree 100%!

 

I am not a successful businessman, much less a billionaire, lol. But it seems to me that a successful businessman knows when to invest in the market or his company even when the economy may be down, buying stocks or investing in expansion, etc, playing the long game. The Twins are in that arena right now.

 

The FO preaches competitive sustainability. And analytics, new approaches to development, smart drafts and trades, this team is in a wide open window right now and a window that doesn't have to close anytime soon unless they get silly or stupid with moves. I don't see that happening.

 

Our FO reminds me a lot of another Midwestern franchise in the Cardinals. They just do about everything right. They seldom have a "tank" season and are almost always in the mix and occasionally make a big move to further their opportunity. And by no means do I think our FO is going to copy them. What I see is a FO that is very smart and progressive in so many ways and borrowing from experience from various archetypes to build a foundation.

 

The structure is in place. Now it may take another year or two to see some of the fruits of their labor to see the results despite a couple recent outstanding seasons. And even though we have a top 5-10 farm system in place, not quite as good as the Padres system, do we want to follow their plan exactly?

 

IMO, our current roster and prospect depth is pretty damn nice. And with a FA pool that is so deep, why would we follow the Padres example exactly? In other words, why not keep what we have for NOW and use $ available to complete the roster?

 

Agents...yes agents...have spoken out loud as to how well the Twins handled 2020 and arbitration. They have spoken that they believe the Twins are buyers. Jim Pohland has stated the Twins are not looking to recoup 2020 "loses". Where there is enough smoke, I figure there is a fire brewing.

 

Unless bargains fall in their lap, I think the idea of a $125M payroll may be an illusion. I am thinking the FO will hold on to their milb talent for the future and ownership will keep the 2021 payroll around the $135-ish mark of last year.

 

With that number, give or take a couple $M, they can keep Cruz, sign one of the top 3 SS, add a quality SP, add another RP, another INF and maybe have a $M or 2 left over for a 5th SP option.

 

The Twins don't HAVE to trade anyone to complete their roster. They can keep what they have, make a couple additions, and keep payroll around the $135-138M mark and still be one of the best teams in MLB.

 

Follow the Padres? Yes in regards to being aggressive and taking advantage of the market and opportunity. No in trading half of your system top 20 when you have $ to spend on various 1yr and 2yr deals.

[FritzDahmus]

Sign ex-Yankee SS Didi Gregorius [may help the players understand why they always suck when playing the Yankees], move Polanco to 2B, package Arraez for a top bullpen arm [only if the right one is available...not Brad Hand], sign Odorizzi, sign Cruz, and add free agent depth to bullpen.

 

This should not cost more than $15-20 million more a year over last year. Right??

[The Wise One]

Would Preller have been in such a position as needing to trade for pitching had he not traded Luis Castillio  and Max Freid. The San Diego model has had one short season playoff appearance under Preller. That is hardly a model for success 

[Monkeypaws]

Twins should follow their own plan, not that of another team.

[KFEY93]

 

Twins should follow their own plan, not that of another team.

 Their "plan" has got them 0 play off wins in 20 years. Not a good plan.