Cruisin' With Kirilloff

[Cody Pirkl]

Perhaps you’ve heard, but MLB teams have a funny way of manipulating service time when it comes to their most coveted prospects. They’ll openly field an inferior team and strain relationships with their future cornerstones for one extra season of control before free agency. With Alex Kirilloff on the horizon, the Twins need to look to deviate from this practice.With a likely opening in LF for 2021, the front office has a decision to make. They have no shortage of options at the position, and in a payroll crunching year across baseball, a full time free agent just may not make sense. The way I see it, there are a few different options we’ll see them choose from:

 

The Bench Platoon:

Jake Cave, Brent Rooker, and LaMonte Wade Jr. all look to be Major League caliber LF options, but the Twins showed their hand in 2020 whether they admit it or not. In an elimination game, Alex Kirilloff became the first player in MLB history to debut by starting a playoff game. While Rooker was injured, Wade could have been added to the roster in Buxton’s absence or Cave could have simply come off the bench. Instead they showed confidence in one of their best prospects, whose minor league track record clearly outweighed the MLB experience of the alternative options when it mattered most. Pandora’s Box is open. Kirilloff is the best OF option in the eyes of the Twins. It’ll be hard to dismiss claims of service time manipulation if they try to claim otherwise on Opening Day, and their team may be worse off. Don’t do it Twins.

 

Save Money, Just Bring Him Up:

Maybe the Twins don’t want to spend any more money than necessary this winter. Kirilloff on a league minimum salary leaves a lot of value to be had with a ton of payroll flexibility. It also won’t tie him to the Major Leagues if he struggles and needs to get sent down. In this scenario, Kirilloff gets the full share of LF from day one, Brent Rooker’s big bat can often still be in the lineup at 1B or DH, and Cave/Wade remain as bench depth where they’re better suited. While this sounds ideal, it’s worth noting that front offices rarely follow this thought process when it comes to top prospects as it costs them a year of team control.

 

Extend Kirilloff:

This is a tactic we’ve seen a few times lately, most recently with the White Sox. Before 2020, they extended Luis Robert for 6 years, $50 million, ensuring 6 years of control of their #1 prospect for a price that already looks to be a steal. While this move takes a lot of confidence, the Twins already showed a great deal of it by bringing Kirilloff up for an elimination game. In this scenario, Kirilloff is happy and starting in left field on opening day for relatively low risk. It eliminates the ugly arbitration process and likely even buys out a year or two of free agency for a player who looks to be a cornerstone in the very near future. Even in a year of reduced payrolls, this is a gamble that won’t break the bank.

 

Alex Kirilloff represents a lot of unknown, but by now Twins fans should have come around to the idea that this front office knows their stuff. The confidence they showed in him in 2020 should have Twins territory excited and looking to have him playing at Target Field ASAP and for as long as possible in my opinion. That being said, 2021 is going to be a weird year and things may not be so cut and dry. Which scenario would you like to see the Twins pursue for Opening Day? Is there one you’d like to see that isn’t listed here? Let us know below.

 

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[mikelink45]

excellent essay - do not delay - time to move to the next phase in MN Twins growth

 

[SteelDodo]

I'm a big Rooker fan. I'd rather start him in LF, and start Kirilloff at AAA.

[Darius]

The whole service time system is without a doubt the worst thing in all sports. Imagine how much better the game would be is a large percentage of its best players weren’t in an obscure inferior league somewhere.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree that this service time thing should be changed. I`d like if we could bring up  all of our top prospects, at least the positional ones, I believe the pitchers could use some more time to develop more as starters. Like you said the corner OF, DH, 1B positions (especially last year) was not a need but a viable CF, SS, 2B, 3B back up was. Lewis had a  spectacular AFL & at St, Paul he was scouted as their best hitter but he wasn`t called up because they said he wasn`t ready (meaning he is a prime prospect & that they want to hold back his service time). Depending what happens this off season, the earliest they`d be called up is May except maybe Jeffers . Because our need for a RH platoon corner OF & Rooker`s service time is not an issue, he be the 1st to be called up. I don`t see FO changing their philosophy, sorry to say

[Cody Pirkl]

I'm a big Rooker fan. I'd rather start him in LF, and start Kirilloff at AAA.

I certainly agree, Rooker should be up. It sounds like he's a bit challenged in the OF though and may fit more as an occasional fill in with a lot of ABs coming from 1B/DH. Wouldnt be surprised to see them go this route though!

[yeahyabetcha]

Kirilloff starting in left likely means Rosario is let go. Rooker making the 25 man roster likely means Cruz is not re-signed. I am not saying it is a terrible idea, but on paper the offense would look to be taking a step backwards in this scenario.

[Doctor Gast]

 

Kirilloff starting in left likely means Rosario is let go. Rooker making the 25 man roster likely means Cruz is not re-signed. I am not saying it is a terrible idea, but on paper the offense would look to be taking a step backwards in this scenario.

I believe Rooker wouldn`t be replacing Cruz but would be taking preference over Cave & Wade

[TopGunn#22]

I need some clarification guys.  I've read that Kiriloff is actually an above average to good defensive 1B-man.  I've also read he decent in the outfield.  Not Buxton/Kepler good, but better than Rosario and Rooker.  I haven't heard much about Rooker as a 1B-man.  It's nitpicky but in any scenario without Rosario wouldn't we have have one of Kiriloff and Rooker in the lineup ?    Also, if Sano was traded  (yeah, I know I'm a broken record on this) wouldn't Kiriloff and Rooker BOTH be in the lineup?  Who is at 1B and who is in LF ??  I just think both kids have shown they will HIT.  In order to sign a free agent SP and/or RP the Twins MUST welcome the youth movement.  BOTH Kiriloff and Rooker should break camp with the team.  

[4twinsJA]

Put Kirilloff on opening day roster, service time issue is a travesty. I would not extend him this year, but do it before arbitration like Twins did with Polonco and Kepler. One MLB game not enough to extend. Kirilloff is ready no need to go to AAA. Reports from alternate site say he hit between .400 and .500, hope that means he is a great hitter and not that the pitching was bad.

[rdehring]

Will agree with those who see Kirilloff at first base a lot over the coming years. To many moving parts to have anything set in stone today, but will not be surprised if both Rosario and Cruz are not with the Twins in 2021....assuming there is a 2021 season.

 

If all three of Sano, Rooker and Kirilloff are in the lineup, I would put Sano at first, Rooker at DH and Kirilloff in left.

[jmlease1]

I think you've got better odds of seeing Rooker at 1B than Kirilloff in the next few years. Kirilloff is solid in the corners so I would expect him to stick there.

 

I'm a huge fan of Kirilloff: he's got enough power production for the modern corner OF but he pairs it with tremendous bat control and good understanding of the strike zone. He's going to get a ton of hits and hit for a high average with enough walks to make the OBP look good. The hit tool is really great and he's going to be a guy you really want at the plate with runners in scoring position. He's not going to be chasing and swinging at tons of pitches outside of the zone and is willing to take a walk, but will most definitely swing the bat. He might not replace Rosario's power right away, but I don't think he'll be far off, and he will hit better overall. He won't replace Rosario's arm, but will likely be more consistent in the OF in catching the ball from recent vintages.

 

I don't think the Twins play service time games with him because a) he's ready to go, and they will have a need. The only question mark about Kirilloff is the fact that he didn't play at AAA...and that's because there was no AAA last season.

[Trov]

There are two kinds of service time manipulation out there.  The Twins and other lower market teams, in the past, have been known for the mid-season service time manipulation where you call them up mid-season just after super 2 time and you get 6.5 seasons of control.  Then there is the late April call up manipulation, like what Bryant faced for Cubs.  That one gives teams almost full 7 years of control, but at higher price of extra year of arbitration. 

 

I am thinking the FO will do more like what they did with Polanco, Sano, and Kepler.  They will look to just buy out those years by paying extra early, but hoping it is good deal late.  Some players are for that knowing they have long term security, others have rejected betting on themselves. 

 

I hope Alex starts all year and racks up some big hits. Worry about deal down road.   

[Major League Ready]

 

I think you've got better odds of seeing Rooker at 1B than Kirilloff in the next few years. Kirilloff is solid in the corners so I would expect him to stick there.

 

I'm a huge fan of Kirilloff: he's got enough power production for the modern corner OF but he pairs it with tremendous bat control and good understanding of the strike zone. He's going to get a ton of hits and hit for a high average with enough walks to make the OBP look good. The hit tool is really great and he's going to be a guy you really want at the plate with runners in scoring position. He's not going to be chasing and swinging at tons of pitches outside of the zone and is willing to take a walk, but will most definitely swing the bat. He might not replace Rosario's power right away, but I don't think he'll be far off, and he will hit better overall. He won't replace Rosario's arm, but will likely be more consistent in the OF in catching the ball from recent vintages.

 

I don't think the Twins play service time games with him because a) he's ready to go, and they will have a need. The only question mark about Kirilloff is the fact that he didn't play at AAA...and that's because there was no AAA last season.

It would not be a big deal if Kirilloff never played at AAA had he tore up AA but that’s not the case.  He had a 756 OPS at AA. That’s not exactly screaming the player has proven he is ready to jump AAA to the MLB level.

 

The guy who has earned a spot on the big league club is Rooker. He takes Rosario’s spot and we have a good 4th OFer in Cave with Wade as depth. We don’t have a burning need so to burn a year of service time when Kirilloff is in his prime just to have him for the 1st 6 weeks of horrible asset management. Let Kirilloff and/or Larnach prove they are ready to play on the ML club.

[rdehring]

 

It would not be a big deal if Kirilloff never played at AAA had he tore up AA but that’s not the case.  He had a 756 OPS at AA. That’s not exactly screaming the player has proven he is ready to jump AAA to the MLB level.

 

The guy who has earned a spot on the big league club is Rooker. He takes Rosario’s spot and we have a good 4th OFer in Cave with Wade as depth. We don’t have a burning need so to burn a year of service time when Kirilloff is in his prime just to have him for the 1st 6 weeks of horrible asset management. Let Kirilloff and/or Larnach prove they are ready to play on the ML club.

I often see comments about the so-so numbers Kirilloff put up at AA two years ago. Yet, few mention that he played all or most of the year with a wrist injury. I wasn't there, but have to assume that it had a significant impact on his production.

[yeahyabetcha]

I believe Rooker wouldn`t be replacing Cruz but would be taking preference over Cave & Wade

 

 

Rooker as an outfielder, looked like a DH.

[Seth Stohs]

So much to think about with this article. Great talker, Cody!

 

Service Time is a tough one... There really isn't a better system, and whatever system is used, teams will look to take advantage of it, as they should. 

 

Regarding Kiriilloff (or Kris Bryant or whoever), why would any team want to NOT wait 20 days to call him up to make a debut when it means getting an extra season at age 28 or 29 because of it. That's just smart. And yes, passing the Super 2 date is smart too, but I don't care about that one as much as about team control for an extra season. 

 

As for Kirilloff, it's hard for me to imagine Scott Boras being OK with him signing an long-term deal before (officially) debuting. Cody mentioned the Luis Robert contract at 6/50. I'd add the 6/24 deal for Evan White. Understanding that the first three years of a player's career, they will make a little less than $2 million by just going year to year, I would just say based on prospect ranking, Kirilloff is in between the two. Robert was #1. White was about 50 or 60. Kirilloff is in the 20s of 30s. So, we'd probably be looking at 6/35-6/40 or so. So, he'd get an average of $11-12 million for each of those three extra years. However, the key to these deals is getting 2-3 option years at the end at reasonable costs. These are not easy decisions. 

[DocBauer]

I think Kirilloff is being targeted to be the probable OF, but he also has to earn the job. This could easily result in an "accidental" extra year of service time. Rooker is older, has successful AAA time and looked ready in his SSS. The team already knows what they have in Cave and Wade. So I can see a scenario where Kirilloff doesn't have a great ST and comes up later.

 

But once he's up, I think he'll be up for good.

[tony&rodney]

These are all good arguments for many years in Twins history. However, this coming season will be pivotal for the Twins because of the core foundation in their system. If the Twins are not ready to compete with Berrios, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Garver, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler and so forth ... then let them be free agents and field a team at $20 million this year. This winter will be anxiously exciting with the Yankees stewing because they didn't win, the Mets looking to blow wads of cash stupidly, and among the viable teams for the 2021 World Series are the Twins. Decisions about who to fill their roster should be solely based on what makes the team better. The manipulation done with young players will go away with the next CBA because of the shenanigans of the last decade. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Duran, and others should or should not make the team based solely on if they make the Twins a better team. Same with trades or free agent signings. The window is open now.

[Cody Pirkl]

Kirilloff starting in left likely means Rosario is let go. Rooker making the 25 man roster likely means Cruz is not re-signed. I am not saying it is a terrible idea, but on paper the offense would look to be taking a step backwards in this scenario.

I think Rosario being non tendered is a formality at this point. Strictly speaking statistics, its not hard to imagine Kirilloff besting what we've seen from Eddie the last 2 seasons. Its no sure thing, but its possible.

I also don't believe Rooker and Cruz are intertwined, but rather Rooker and Cave or Wade.

[Cody Pirkl]

I think Kirilloff is being targeted to be the probable OF, but he also has to earn the job. This could easily result in an "accidental" extra year of service time. Rooker is older, has successful AAA time and looked ready in his SSS. The team already knows what they have in Cave and Wade. So I can see a scenario where Kirilloff doesn't have a great ST and comes up later.

 

But once he's up, I think he'll be up for good.

I don't think it will (or rather should) come down to Kirilloff vs Rooker. I don't think the Twins need 2 starting OFs to be LH as well as their 2 bench bats. As we saw last year, teams will just stack lefties to close out games and a majority of the lineup and bench will be helpless. I think its time to stop letting Cave and Wade hang around and just pick one. Both can play a role on another team and while they won't net some huge return, I think the Twins could at least get something. Roll into 2021 with Rooker and Kirilloff in my opinion.

[Cody Pirkl]

I need some clarification guys.  I've read that Kiriloff is actually an above average to good defensive 1B-man.  I've also read he decent in the outfield.  Not Buxton/Kepler good, but better than Rosario and Rooker.  I haven't heard much about Rooker as a 1B-man.  It's nitpicky but in any scenario without Rosario wouldn't we have have one of Kiriloff and Rooker in the lineup ?    Also, if Sano was traded  (yeah, I know I'm a broken record on this) wouldn't Kiriloff and Rooker BOTH be in the lineup?  Who is at 1B and who is in LF ??  I just think both kids have shown they will HIT.  In order to sign a free agent SP and/or RP the Twins MUST welcome the youth movement.  BOTH Kiriloff and Rooker should break camp with the team.

Actually yes, I've heard the Twins are quite impressed with Kirilloffs abilities at 1B. The issue right now which you've alluded to is Sano. Kirilloff could get some innings there when Sano DHs but I assume he mans LF primarily. I don't blame you for talking about trading him. I love Sano but if a team will give up some valuable pieces, I say do it and use that money elsewhere. I feel good about the guys we have to take his place. Rooker may play there a bit as well, but for whatever reason the Twins really didn't play him there during his last minor league season.

[rv78]

If the front office "knows their stuff" and were willing to show confidence in him why do they wait until the playoffs to bring him up? Surely he would have given the Twins a boost over a Cave batting average of .221 or a Marwin average of .211 or Wade Jr at .231? Want to take it a step farther? How about a weak Kepler batting average of .228? Plenty of opportunity there that they missed out on. 

[jjswol]

I like Kirilloff a lot. Having said that, I am old school and believe you have to prove yourself before you get the money. That doesn't mean a team should not pay a player what he is worth when he has no leverage, it just means that if Kirilloff should put up the numbers first before he gets the big bucks.

[yeahyabetcha]

I think Rosario being non tendered is a formality at this point. Strictly speaking statistics, its not hard to imagine Kirilloff besting what we've seen from Eddie the last 2 seasons. Its no sure thing, but its possible.

I also don't believe Rooker and Cruz are intertwined, but rather Rooker and Cave or Wade.

 

Rooker did not look to be even an average fielder. Not sure that is what the Twins need as a 4th outfielder. Also not sure you can project after one start that Kirilloff will be the best hitter in the lineup not named Cruz. I hope they both develop into great major leaguers, but to expect it to happen next year might be a bit optimistic.

[Cody Pirkl]

Rooker did not look to be even an average fielder. Not sure that is what the Twins need as a 4th outfielder. Also not sure you can project after one start that Kirilloff will be the best hitter in the lineup not named Cruz. I hope they both develop into great major leaguers, but to expect it to happen next year might be a bit optimistic.

Rooker is by all accounts a bad outfielder, and I'd expect a good amount of his ABs to come at 1B/DH. Thats why Kirilloffs future is tied more closely to Cave and Wade. If he's playing, one of those two need to go.

I also don't think Kirilloff will be the second best hitter in the lineup, just that its very possible that he can be better than Eddie.

[yeahyabetcha]

If there is a AAA season it might make more sense to have Rooker and Kirilloff playing full time there , rather than be part timers for the Twins. If no AAA, decisions could be different. If Rosario is not brought back , that opens a spot for one of them, not both. And that also is leaving only one of Cave or Wade on the roster.

 

I think a pretty strong argument could be made that Rosario was the 2nd best hitter over the last two years. So I don’t think it is a fair assessment to say the offense would not lose a beat without him.

[Major League Ready]

Why does Larnach get no love? 

[Cody Pirkl]

If there is a AAA season it might make more sense to have Rooker and Kirilloff playing full time there , rather than be part timers for the Twins. If no AAA, decisions could be different. If Rosario is not brought back , that opens a spot for one of them, not both. And that also is leaving only one of Cave or Wade on the roster.

I think a pretty strong argument could be made that Rosario was the 2nd best hitter over the last two years. So I don’t think it is a fair assessment to say the offense would not lose a beat without him.

I don't think either would really be part time. If Kirilloff is up I think he's the everyday left fielder. Rooker may not be quite full time but Id bet he gets at least 4 starts per week. He's also 26 and looks like he can hit in the big leagues. If they won't work to make a role for him now, they might as well trade him.

 

I don't agree that Eddie was the lineups 2nd best hitter at all. If that were the case he wouldn't be discussed as a non tender candidate. He was our 5th best regular by wRC+ in 2020 and our 9th best in 2019. I don't think its a lock that Kirilloff can emulate that right away but its not out of the question.