Article: Twins Ink Rich Harden to Minor League Deal

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Not too many years ago, I would have thought this was a good idea.

 

It is a good idea. What risk is a minor league contract? None! So stop complaining.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Let me just say I am EXTREMELY pleased with this signing. Harden was one of the players I wanted in my original plan and to get him on a minor league deal is gold. Strikeout artist with a great ceiling. Low risk, very high reward. Possible #2, but he hasn't done much in the last 3-4 years. I really love everything Terry Ryan has done except for the Correia signing. Which, by the way, looks more and more questionable after every new pitching acquisition. 5 spots and he (Kevin) might prove to be inferior to all these guys: Diamond, Hendriks, Harden, Pelfrey, Gibson, Worley, Hernandez, Hermsen, and Deduno. Maybe not the last 3, maybe yes. We'll have to see.

[minn55441]

What's not to like is that this is the strategy, instead of signing one legit pitcher. Hope is a bad strategy.

 

 

I understand your point, but I would rather TR sign a bunch of "give me a shot at my former glory" guys for 2013, than a bunch of mid-level starters to 4 and 5 year deals. If given the choice at this point of having Marcum, E. Jackson and Blanton all signed and in the fold on 4 to 5 year deals, I would much rather be where we are at now. We won't be able to even see the division lead after the all-star break, so why jeopardize our future on long term deals just to put a competitive team on the field for 2013?

 

Our defense and offense won't be much better than our starting pitching in 2013, however we have a chance to put together a real nice team in all phases of the game in 2014 and beyond as long as we don't sign any stupid contracts now, that would extend into those seasons. Sure, Blanton, Marcum and Jackson would look a lot better on the field in 2013 than what we will end up seeing. However if you sign those guys through 2016 and 2017, we have destroyed our future. Do you really want those guys to be the core of your rotation in 2016? Let the Myers, Mays, Berrios, Diamonds progress and I'm sure we will have more options for starting pitching FA after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. We will be looking at one, maybe two guys at that point to really solidify our pitching staff. In my mind that will be money well spent.

 

I may be wrong, if Blanton, Marcum and Jackson are vying for the Cy Young award in 2016, I will admit you were right, I was wrong. I strongly believe that locking up league average starting pitchers long term as they head into the downside of their careers is the wrong approach.

[StormJH1]

This is a good signing. Minor league deal has very little risk attached to it. But I think he needs to become a reliever like Kerry Wood did. This guy was never really more than a 6 inning guy when "healthy", let alone now. But he has ALWAYS struck guys out. I'd rather have that kind of upside than the Correia/Pelfrey type, which is "Gee, this guy throws batting practice and seems like he should be getting torched, but his ERA is surprisingly good!"

[ashbury]

I strongly believe that locking up league average starting pitchers long term as they head into the downside of their careers is the wrong approach.

 

I agree with what you're saying, but it leaves out the crucial point that I think Terry Ryan is considering and with which I also agree. When you sign a guy to a multi-year contract, you are taking on a fair degree of risk. Now, one may look at a particular stud pitcher and guess that there is no risk based on his track record, but I don't think the record bears that out - in a previous post I took a look at the league's best starters 5 years ago and the 2012 record for those pitchers was pretty bad if you had paid big money that included this year in the contract.

 

Now, sometimes, it makes sense to take on that risk. But to do it now, means you are taking the risk of a Marcum or Jackson being bad in the last year of his contract, in exchange for ... what? A more competitive 2013? It's a bad bargain.

 

Two years from now, when the team is really ready to compete, there will be the equivalents of Marcum and Jackson available. At that point, you might take on future risk in exchange for solidifying something for the 2015 team. You really are getting something of value in exchange for the risk.

 

There's nothing so unique about the talent available for signing today that says you need to pull the trigger on it. I guess I'm belaboring the point, but so many posters seem puzzled by what Terry Ryan is doing this off-season. It doesn't seem puzzling to me at all.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Twins need to do more than sign minor league contracts. That just proves how dirt cheap Ryan is. He is a dirt bag!

 

Well, I don't know how anybody can complain about this signing. There is only upside. If he looks bad in ST, he gets cut.

 

I also don't believe Terry Ryan is a dirt bag. I live near farms, and Terry Ryan doesn't look like any bag of dirt I have seen. He actually looks more like a person than a bag. I mean bags don't have arms or legs or a face for that matter. If he is dirt, it has to be the whitest dirt I have ever seen. Most dirt around here is brown or black. You may want to look at pictures of bags of dirt and pictures of Terry Ryan, you might get a better idea of the differences.

[Top Gun]

You guys are so full of it!

[Kwak]

"Signing league average pitchers long-term..."--All agree Correia isn't much, but two years 'isn't long-term'. These one-year deals--they do show a commitment to put a decent team on the field in 2013--and that was part of the agreement between taxpayer and ownership. A 75 win team is more entertaining than last season's 66 win team. It wasn't just the 96 losses--but that all too many of these "losses" came in the first three innings with the rest of the game just "mop-up". I believe Twins fans deserve better--and that the team can be rebuilt into a consistent winner while still putting an entertaining team on the field during the years needed to rebuild.

[Mike Sixel]

So punt on 2013 and 2014, minn55441? That's your strategy?

 

People keep talking about "risk" and signing guys that have actually succeeded in the majors, but somehow are ignoring the risk that these prospects might not work out. And, since it "does not make sense to sign any legit FA unless your team is close", what happens in the next two years if some of the prospects don't work?

[Mike Sixel]

A 75 win team is not sufficiently more entertaining than a 66 win team to put butts in seats, imo.

[glunn]

Good article. I wonder how much they are paying him.

[70charger]

The love for guys with a .0001% chance of a big payoff here shows me why casinos have so many more slot machines than poker tables.

 

Your analogy is off because you seem to be missing the asymmetry.

 

If I'm betting $1, I will take 10-1 odds when the payoff is $10 before I'll take 2-1 odds when the payoff is $1. One is more likely, but the other is far preferable.

[SweetOne69]

Good article. I wonder how much they are paying him.

 

It's a minor league deal so he will get paid the same as the rest of the minor leaguers (around $50k).

[Danchat]

Not too many years ago, I would have thought this was a good idea.

 

That was before you went senile?

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

That was before you went senile?

 

Haha BOOM!

[twins4121]

$52,000? i'd say this is amazing. I do think though that this means we have very little faith of him coming back and staying healthy... Either we hope to get 6-8 solid starts before he goes down, or put him in the pen and milk him springily.

[Kwak]

$52,000? i'd say this is amazing. I do think though that this means we have very little faith of him coming back and staying healthy... Either we hope to get 6-8 solid starts before he goes down, or put him in the pen and milk him springily.

 

 

No, the real purpose is show that the FO is "not satisfied" with what they have and will continue to add limited risk (limited reward also) to show the fan base that "they're trying". Yes, this is a CYA manuever.

 

Let Mike bitch about 75 wins are not enough--but this team needs so much help to get to 81, much less 97 (60%), that to think it could be done in one year is total fantasy. To consider Marcum (or any other SP on the FA market) is total BS.

This team won't get turned around until the minor leaguers mature--and are the real deal! I think if half of the "top ten prospects" amount to quality major leaguers there would be cause for a major celebration.

[beckmt]

The two year deal is the only one that bothered me. If May and Meyer are not ready by 2014 second half or one of the other Twin minor leaguers we are in deep trouble with a total pitching staff rebuild needed again

[diehardtwinsfan]

Let's accept this move for what it is... a low risk move (50k) with a high reward, but the odds of it panning out are likely less than 10%. I doubt at this point that Ryan expects the Twins to contend, and to be honest, even if Harden is a gold mine, they still would be a fringe contender at best. The flip side is that if he is money this spring, he gets flipped for something decent at the deadline. Pitching is always in demand at the trade deadline, and a healthy Harden should fetch a nice price.

 

I don't get why people are complaining, this is exactly the type of move they shoudl be making... It's the same reason why they should get Bedard (though he will cost more).

[Kwak]

Let's not kid ourselves--none of these "marginal" pitchers signed can be "flipped" for someone useful--remember Livan Hernandez and his 10 wins in July '08?--nobody wanted him!

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, fixing the team in 1 year is unrealistic. That is why signing one legit pitcher this year made sense. He can either be here in 2 or 3 years, or be traded for more prospects. As for the 75 win number, do people think a team like that will sell tickets? And if their revenue drops, do you think they will buy players next year?

[OldManWinter]

I have had three rotator cuff surgeries in the past 11 years. The first was described as large, the next was bigger, and the last one (all by the same surgeon) was was said to be way bigger.

 

I do not know how these compare to what Harden had, or anyone elses either. In fact it was never explained to me why my tears were considered large to huge.

 

I would say returning to high performance would be very ambitious unless his is a small tear. Lets hope for the best.

[Paul Pleiss]

I think I read the Twins will have 34 pitchers in camp this spring, looking to give a lot of arms a look and see what sticks.

 

-P

[Texas Mike]

[when in Texas, Harden was known as the "Club Douche". It is another low risk move by TR.

[Riverbrian]

I think I read the Twins will have 34 pitchers in camp this spring, looking to give a lot of arms a look and see what sticks.

 

-P

 

That's not enough. I'd like at least 40.

[jcphitman]

I love this signing! Nearly no risk and great reward if Harden succeeds. I'm never against a minor league deal as long as this isn't the Twins only move (which it is not for SP ... even though the other moves ... especially Correia... are questionable at best). I've been a big fan of Harden.

 

A bit worry hearing Ryan said the Twins medical staff examined him and said he was worth a look. The medical staff does not give me any confidence with what the team has been through with injuries.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Let's not kid ourselves--none of these "marginal" pitchers signed can be "flipped" for someone useful--remember Livan Hernandez and his 10 wins in July '08?--nobody wanted him!

 

There was never a chance that Livan pitched like a number 2... and he still got flipped. Harden, if healthy, WILL be in demand come June... It's a big IF, but he could net something decent if he's pitching well.

[Thrylos]

Interestingly enough, the injury’s origin, Harden believes, was sustained in 2007

I did a bit of research on Harden's injury history, and you can find a complete history of his injuries (at least in the MLB) here. His first R shoulder problems started in 2004 and he had already missed 88 days because of his shoulder before the 2007 situation. He had a total of 22 injuries and lost more than 758 days in his career. What concerns me the most about his history is that he has been diagnosed with a UCL "sprain" in 2006, which made him lose 108 days (of RnR). His shoulder has given up before his elbow each season after, so if the surgery (capsule btw, not labrum) fixed his chronic shoulder condition, the elbow might go a la Joel Zumaya. Hope the best. This can be a really great signing if he is healthy.

[DaveW]

I did a bit of research on Harden's injury history, and you can find a complete history of his injuries (at least in the MLB) here. His first R shoulder problems started in 2004 and he had already missed 88 days because of his shoulder before the 2007 situation. He had a total of 22 injuries and lost more than 758 days in his career. What concerns me the most about his history is that he has been diagnosed with a UCL "sprain" in 2006, which made him lose 108 days (of RnR). His shoulder has given up before his elbow each season after, so if the surgery (capsule btw, not labrum) fixed his chronic shoulder condition, the elbow might go a la Joel Zumaya. Hope the best. This can be a really great signing if he is healthy.

When are the Twins annoucing the Scott Baker signing?

[Thrylos]

When are the Twins annoucing the Scott Baker signing?

 

Same time the Cubs will announce the A. Sanchez signing and the Haren and cash for Marmol trade. "Done deals" get undone some times. Mea Culpa. Move on...