MIN 5, CHW 1: Bullpen Shines as Twins Beat Giolito

[John Kelsey]

 

did you know Kepler's OBP is 60 some points higher than Buxton's?

I dont know if Kepler should be leading off, but not Buxton.

 

Agreed, Buxton has been swinging really early in counts and making contact which has helped his power, but has resulted in him drawing 1(!) walk all year. Not exactly what you want from the leadoff guy.

[bighat]

 

did you know Kepler's OBP is 60 some points higher than Buxton's?

I dont know if Kepler should be leading off, but not Buxton.

I also like Buxton down in that 6-7 spot right now. Initially we all pictured him as the Twins' leadoff guy but his stats over the years say that he's just not that type of hitter.

 

Polanco has my vote. Baldelli on the other hand may feel it's too late to tinker.

[4twinsJA]

Really like Polanco, Donaldson 1-2 in lineup, they tend to see a lot of pitches and make the pitcher work the first inning. Buxton looking great, if he can hit like this and stay healthy, a real difference maker for Twins.

[Dman]

I know Buxton doesn't walk much but that may be by design.  It seems like most pitchers have been aggressive pitching against Buck.  Lot's of pitches in the zone so I don't think other teams want to put him on base with a walk and with his batting average would like to see him earn his way on.  If he continues to be successful maybe that will change a bit.  No team wants Byron on base and for now they seem to believe the odds are better making him work for it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fair enough, I'll readily admit that I was watching the Twins ABs closer and only checked the charts against Twins batters in comparison to last night. I guess we'll call it even. 

Even just looking at the Twins batter charts, it appears that the Tuesday ump was incorrect on 5 pitches, vs. the Wednesday night ump on 3.

 

The Tuesday night ump did have the most egregious mistake of the two (the one low & away strike). The rest of their collective mistakes seem comparable in degree.

 

Note that the Wednesday night ump's 3 mistakes all favored Twins batters (1 pitch on the inside corner, and two that caught the bottom of the zone, all called balls). This is probably a non-trivial factor in how Twins fans are grading the two umps!

 

Also note that the Tuesday night ump had to render a judgment on ~5 pitches that were very close to clipping the edge of the zone during Twins at-bats, as compared to the Wednesday night ump who only saw ~2 such pitches. Opportunity rather than skill?

[KFEY93]

 

Totally agree, John, that the home plate ump was as good as I have seen this year. Maybe it was more noticeable because so many have been very, very bad.

 

Ditto on Odorizzi having miserable luck within a crazy season. He is a good pitcher and would be very helpful in that five game series should the Twins be so fortunate to get there. His problems this year may be setting him up for a one year contract with incentives back with the Twins in 2021.

 

Said to the tv when Eddie came up to bat, the Twins need you to get on one of your streaks these last ten games and the first round of the playoffs. You know, one of those streaks where he carries the team. A couple pitches later he hit it out and later worked a walk to be on base for Buxton's dinger. If they can get the Luis we know back and just one of the big early bats heat up along with Eddie and Buck, this team can be dangerous.

 

Also thought May was perfect again last night. If he can just eliminate half of his off nights, he could be a huge part of any bullpen, this year and next.

I dont recall anytime Eddie carried the team in anything. Needs to be his last year in a Twins uni

[twinbythebay]

Trevor May looked great last night, but to everyone who wants to make him our new closer based on one (admittedly impressive) inning of work with a 4-run lead: his ERA this season (4.74) is about the same as Rogers, his FIP (3.98) is much worse, his average exit velocity allowed (91.8 mph) is about 3 mph higher than Rogers, and his HR/9 (2.37) is more than twice as high as Rogers. May's K/9 is enough to make any Twins fan salivate, but he's given up a homer in 3 of his last 7 appearances. I know his HR/FB rate is unsustainably high, but I'd like him to show that he can get that under control before he is moved up in the bullpen pecking order. A closer who gives up a bunch of home runs is a recipe for disaster. I'm guessing the very reason they went to May instead of Rogers last night is because of the 4-run cushion.

[puckstopper1]

Buxton continues to show flashes of why the Twins drafted him #1 overall.

 

When the Twins drafted Buxton, my immediate comp for him was Andrew McCutchen.

 

While Buck is not at the level of McCutchen yet, he certainly is a difference maker when he is in the line-up.

 

[John Kelsey]

 

I know Buxton doesn't walk much but that may be by design.  It seems like most pitchers have been aggressive pitching against Buck.  Lot's of pitches in the zone so I don't think other teams want to put him on base with a walk and with his batting average would like to see him earn his way on.  If he continues to be successful maybe that will change a bit.  No team wants Byron on base and for now they seem to believe the odds are better making him work for it.

 

I've been pretty shocked that he's continued to get so many first pitches in the zone. It may be what you're suggesting that teams don't want to give him a free pass, but he's shown a penchant for getting himself out over the years. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they started to throw him a few breaking balls out of the zone with the first two pitches and see if he can lay off with the way he's been approaching ABs lately. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know Buxton doesn't walk much but that may be by design.  It seems like most pitchers have been aggressive pitching against Buck.  Lot's of pitches in the zone so I don't think other teams want to put him on base with a walk and with his batting average would like to see him earn his way on.  If he continues to be successful maybe that will change a bit.  No team wants Byron on base and for now they seem to believe the odds are better making him work for it.

With all the HR that Buxton has been hitting lately, maybe the Pirates' Miguel Del Pozo was on to something by walking him earlier this year?

 

I think it would be in the best interests of potential Twins playoff opponents to employ Mr. Del Pozo and other pitchers like him!

[mikelink45]

 

did you know Kepler's OBP is 60 some points higher than Buxton's?

I dont know if Kepler should be leading off, but not Buxton.

That OBP is for the season and the beginning of  the season does not reflect what he has been doing since he came back from his last injury.

[AceWrigley]

 

Trevor May looked great last night, but to everyone who wants to make him our new closer based on one (admittedly impressive) inning of work with a 4-run lead: his ERA this season (4.74) is about the same as Rogers, his FIP (3.98) is much worse, his average exit velocity allowed (91.8 mph) is about 3 mph higher than Rogers, and his HR/9 (2.37) is more than twice as high as Rogers. May's K/9 is enough to make any Twins fan salivate, but he's given up a homer in 3 of his last 7 appearances. I know his HR/FB rate is unsustainably high, but I'd like him to show that he can get that under control before he is moved up in the bullpen pecking order. A closer who gives up a bunch of home runs is a recipe for disaster. I'm guessing the very reason they went to May instead of Rogers last night is because of the 4-run cushion.

All true, but do you trust Rogers for the rest of the year being able to close out close games? Something is off with him this year and I have to believe his confidence is a bit shaken. I'd give May a shot. I guess if we draw the Yankees in the playoffs its all moot anyways based on past performance (or lack of).

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Buxton continues to show flashes of why the Twins drafted him #1 overall.

 

When the Twins drafted Buxton, my immediate comp for him was Andrew McCutchen.

 

While Buck is not at the level of McCutchen yet, he certainly is a difference maker when he is in the line-up.

 

The Twins drafted Buxton #2 overall.  The Astros took Correa at 1:1.

[Dman]

 

With all the HR that Buxton has been hitting lately, maybe the Pirates' Miguel Del Pozo was on to something by walking him earlier this year?

 

I think it would be in the best interests of potential Twins playoff opponents to employ Mr. Del Pozo and other pitchers like him!

 

If he keeps hitting HR's I think they will.  What is it now 5 in the last 8 games?  There is a point where teams will need to change that approach.  I am just surprised how little they seem to even nibble they just throw it right over the plate most of the time when he is up.  He seems vulnerable to sliders in the dirt over the plate I would think they would throw more of those than they do.  I love what Buck is doing right now but it seems like it won't last much longer as he is just stinging the ball too much now for pitchers to pitch him that way.  I think more breaking balls would kill his momentum but who knows.

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

did you know Kepler's OBP is 60 some points higher than Buxton's?

I dont know if Kepler should be leading off, but not Buxton.

Last 28 days Buxton's is higher and Kepler is trending down.   Add in Buxton's OPS of 1.051 vs Kepler at .554 and I know who I want to get more at bats.  Small sample size I know but I would flip it around and say I don't know if Buxton should be leading off, but not Kepler.    The very obvious guy to have at lead off always is Arraez.   Without him we really don't have an ideal guy.   

[rdehring]

 

I dont recall anytime Eddie carried the team in anything. Needs to be his last year in a Twins uni

I have zero interest in getting into a back and forth about what we remember. But I recall a stretch two years ago when Eddie and Escobar seemed to get a couple extra base hits hitting back-to-back seemingly every night for a week or two. Also remember a couple stretches last year, don't recall dates and/or specifics. Don't remember any of these streaks from this season.

 

As for his being gone next year, that is a decision the FO will make. Don't know if he will or won't, but if he isn't I will miss him.

[ashbury]

Polanco has my vote. Baldelli on the other hand may feel it's too late to tinker.

League average OBP is .320. We have exactly two guys with sufficient PA to qualify for a batting title, who are above that. Arraez is injured at present. Nelson Cruz would be a bold strategy at leadoff; I'm not going to suggest we see if it pays off for us.

 

Of the rest, Polanco is at .318 and hasn't hit with a lot of pop, so he might indeed be a logical candidate. Kepler and Rosario profile similarly, though with a few more home runs.

 

By a different view, leadoff could be for your best OPS guy (or whatever overall offensive metric you prefer) whose value isn't concentrated in his home runs. Kepler has better OPS than Polanco, but not so many home runs as Rosario. With no ideal candidate present, Kepler is at least in consideration.

 

[KFEY93]

 

I have zero interest in getting into a back and forth about what we remember. But I recall a stretch two years ago when Eddie and Escobar seemed to get a couple extra base hits hitting back-to-back seemingly every night for a week or two. Also remember a couple stretches last year, don't recall dates and/or specifics. Don't remember any of these streaks from this season.

 

As for his being gone next year, that is a decision the FO will make. Don't know if he will or won't, but if he isn't I will miss him.

I should reform my statement. I don't recall him carrying us when it mattered.