It’s Time to Call Up Alex Kirilloff

[Vanimal46]

Catching up on the Twins news this weekend... Sucks to read about Rooker’s season ending injury, and Rosario’s elbow injury. Even before these injuries, the offense needed a spark to get going before the playoffs. I don’t see Cave or Wade Jr. as the answer in the short term, or for the rest of the season if Rosario’s injury is worse than anticipated.

 

That’s why it’s time to call up Kirilloff. He’s rule 5 eligible this December and needs to be added anyway. The Twins are 99.9% playoff bound, and this stretch of games would serve as a good ramp up for AK.

 

Let’s see it happen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's certainly possible, although it wouldn't surprise me if Kirilloff was a little behind where Rooker was, and the odds of Kirilloff actually helping more than Cave and Wade this year are low.

[Rosterman]

Kirilloff would play at least as well as Wade or Cave.

 

Rooker on the longterm IL, so a 40-man spot is now open. Only problem would be adding Homer Bailey back into the mix if playoff ready.

 

And only if Rosario would need an IL visit.

[twinbythebay]

 

Kirilloff would play at least as well as Wade or Cave.

This is an awfully definitive statement considering he's a 22 year old who OPSed .750 at AA last season and has never played at a higher level than that... Color me skeptical.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Kirilloff would play at least as well as Wade or Cave.

 

Rooker on the longterm IL, so a 40-man spot is now open. Only problem would be adding Homer Bailey back into the mix if playoff ready.

 

And only if Rosario would need an IL visit.

 

I think Homer is going to be odd man out come playoff time.  Barring an injury, Maeda, Pineda, and Berrios are your top 3 starters.  If you're going for a fourth starter, it's Hill or Dobnak (maybe a piggyback situation).  In the bullpen, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, Wisler, Clippard, and Alcala all seem to be better options, and that's not yet counting May, Stashak, Smeltzer, or Littell.  Maybe he gets thrown in the mix as an inning eater in a laugher, but my guess is that if Homer Bailey is pitching playoff innings for the Twins this year, something has gone horribly awry.

[twins1095]

 

It's certainly possible, although it wouldn't surprise me if Kirilloff was a little behind where Rooker was, and the odds of Kirilloff actually helping more than Cave and Wade this year are low.

 

Counterpoint, Jeffers had similar numbers to AK last season at double A. In addition, Kirilloff's numbers last year are better than they seem on the surface given that he was recovering from an injury that typically saps power well into the season. As the season went on, his numbers improved quite considerably. 

 

Also, it does not really if he helps more this season given that the Twins are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. If Kirilloff is a bigger part of the long-term plans than Wade/Cave Jr. & giving him playing time helps speed up his development... it would be a huge mistake to not bring him up.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Kirilloff would play at least as well as Wade or Cave.

 

Rooker on the longterm IL, so a 40-man spot is now open. Only problem would be adding Homer Bailey back into the mix if playoff ready.

 

And only if Rosario would need an IL visit.

There are 16 better options than Homer Bailey on the current roster and that includes Adrianza on the mound.

[Dman]

 

Catching up on the Twins news this weekend... Sucks to read about Rooker’s season ending injury, and Rosario’s elbow injury. Even before these injuries, the offense needed a spark to get going before the playoffs. I don’t see Cave or Wade Jr. as the answer in the short term, or for the rest of the season if Rosario’s injury is worse than anticipated.

That’s why it’s time to call up Kirilloff. He’s rule 5 eligible this December and needs to be added anyway. The Twins are 99.9% playoff bound, and this stretch of games would serve as a good ramp up for AK.

Let’s see it happen.

 

Let me first say I like both Cave and Wade.  Cave has disappointed a bit this year but is still a strong fourth outfielder and I think if the season would have been longer likely would have found his groove at some point but so far riding that ugly 599 OPS I don't think Kirilloff can do much worse than that.  Wade hasn't had many chances to show what he can do but given his SSS he seems to be the same player he always ha sbeen. Taking good at bats, getting walks and getting on base.  But lets be honest, without the power he will never be more than a 4th outfielder.  So why not put a guy in who might someday own that spot in Kirilloff?

 

There is a little bit of Rosario in Kirilloff as they have such good contact skills they generally don't walk much.  Not sure what Kirilloff's chase rate is but have to believe it is better than Rosario's.  They both have plenty of power and are not afraid to swing.The thing about Kirilloff though is I don't believe he is as pull happy as Rosie so will likely have a better Batting average because of that.  So I can see where you are coming from I just don't know if he would get schooled at the MLB level or not.  

 

He does need to be added to the 40 man and the Twins have had good luck with both Rooker and Jeffers already so why not give it a try?  He has all the traits you need in a left fielder from a hitting perspective (Not sure about defense) Power, Batting average, good contact skills and I agree he is a better fit for the position than Wade, and Cave has disappointed a bit this year so give the kid a chance to get a feel for the game, a feel for the pressure of a playoff run.  Should help him next year and beyond.  Maybe he surprises all of us and helps the Twins win the division.  He can't be be much worse than his current competition.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Counterpoint, Jeffers had similar numbers to AK last season at double A. In addition, Kirilloff's numbers last year are better than they seem on the surface given that he was recovering from an injury that typically saps power well into the season. As the season went on, his numbers improved quite considerably. 

Certainly not every player is the same. But if we think the front office knew what they were doing in promoting Jeffers and Rooker when they did, why not extend some benefit of the doubt that they are choosing the right course for Kirilloff? (Although note that even Jeffers had a .520 OPS in MLB a week ago -- there's hardly any time left this season to discern between a normal adjustment period and a guy not being ready.)

 

 

Also, it does not really if he helps more this season given that the Twins are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. If Kirilloff is a bigger part of the long-term plans than Wade/Cave Jr. & giving him playing time helps speed up his development... it would be a huge mistake to not bring him up.

Because the Twins are a lock to make the playoffs, they can (and should) prioritize some short-term goals. The next two weeks aren't going to make any long-term difference for Alex Kirilloff's development.

 

Don't get me wrong -- I'd be excited to see Kirilloff debut and hoping for the best. But I'm not going to be upset if we don't see him either.

[twins_89]

Between the corner outfield spots and first base there are plenty of opportunities to get Kirilloff playing time. I really have no idea why the Twins seem reluctant to give him a shot.

[darin617]

Do you think the Twins have enough pitching to make a DEEP playoff push? If you think they can I might be for bringing him up. Just don't feel we have a strong enough bullpen and nothing more than 2 starters I feel confident in. Why start his service time early.

[DocBauer]

Didn't copy and quote, but going with Spycake on this.

 

If Kepler or Rosario were actually hurt and done, I feel the Twins would be inclined to give Kirlloff or Larnach a shot. But just because there was need and a feeling Jeffers and Rooker were ready doesn't mean either of these other two are. And that shouldn't diminish their rankings or potential! It just means in a weird, no milb season, practice and simulated games at St Paul may not have them ready to come up and make any difference with only 2 weeks left before the playoffs.

 

Again, a significant injury could change this thinking. But Cave and Wade are older, have some experience, and varying degrees of experience and production. Status quo is best, meaning every one is healthy and ready to go and we don't even have to worry about a move of this nature.

 

Break the glass if something else happens, but only then, IMO.

[High heat]

Unless Rosario is out for the remainder of the season (needs an IL stint) no reason to call up Kirilloff.  Remember that 2 games this season counts as about a week of service time.  So having him up for 12 or so games is more then a month of service time.  
For him to get a few at bats, likely inconsistently I don’t see it as valuable especially if you think he is going to be an impact bat for the long hall.  

 

unlike Jeffers and Rooker,  Kirilloff is a top 25 prospect in all of baseball, I would love to see him up and stake a claim for LF next season but you value service time much more on potential stars.  I just done see the value in starting it now.  

[Vanimal46]

Do you think the Twins have enough pitching to make a DEEP playoff push? If you think they can I might be for bringing him up. Just don't feel we have a strong enough bullpen and nothing more than 2 starters I feel confident in. Why start his service time early.

I think we do have enough pitching to make it past the 1st round at least. Anything after that is a toss up anyways. Pitching hasn’t been an issue all season, even with the injuries and suspensions along the way.

 

I don’t think the Twins have enough hitting to make a deep playoff run. Hence why I think it’s time for Mr. Kirilloff to come up and see if he can make an impact.

[twins1095]

 

Certainly not every player is the same. But if we think the front office knew what they were doing in promoting Jeffers and Rooker when they did, why not extend some benefit of the doubt that they are choosing the right course for Kirilloff? (Although note that even Jeffers had a .520 OPS in MLB a week ago -- there's hardly any time left this season to discern between a normal adjustment period and a guy not being ready.)

 

 

Because the Twins are a lock to make the playoffs, they can (and should) prioritize some short-term goals. The next two weeks aren't going to make any long-term difference for Alex Kirilloff's development.

 

Don't get me wrong -- I'd be excited to see Kirilloff debut and hoping for the best. But I'm not going to be upset if we don't see him either.

 

I guess I disagree on the logic. Being a virtual lock for the playoffs allows you the luxury of being able to explore non-short term goals given that short-term actions don't have the same consequences as it would if you were fighting for your playoff spot.

[Trov]

I agree you have little to lose to add him to 40 man, by putting Rooker on 60 day or 40 day as it is this year.  Bring in Kiriloff and see what he has last couple weeks.  If he is swinging good let him play in the playoffs.  I have high hopes for the kid, and all reports are the kid can swing the bat for sure.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess I disagree on the logic. Being a virtual lock for the playoffs allows you the luxury of being able to explore non-short term goals given that short-term actions don't have the same consequences as it would if you were fighting for your playoff spot.

The short-term goal to which I am referring is getting ready for the 2020 postseason and making sure the players you expect to use in the 2020 postseason are in the best position to succeed.

 

That means starters will undoubtedly get rested, but it also means regular action for subs and role players all over the field like Marwin, Cave, Wade, Adrianza, even Astudillo.

 

I'm not opposed to it, but giving a few reps to Kirilloff over the next couple weeks doesn't have any meaningful effect on his development process. It's not really helping 2020, and it's not doing much for 2021 either. Failing to call him up now wouldn't be a "huge mistake" like you said, unless you believe he's an impact player right now -- an assessment that I doubt the Twins share if we're debating whether to call him up as late as Sep. 15.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree you have little to lose to add him to 40 man, by putting Rooker on 60 day or 40 day as it is this year.

Rooker's 40-man spot might be the only one we have to play with, at this point. So if there's a chance we may need to add another catcher, or shortstop, or pinch runner (do we have one of those?) for the postseason, adding Kirilloff in that spot might preclude those moves.

 

Unless you are confident that Kirilloff's bat could quickly become ready enough for the 2020 MLB postseason, it's defensible to hold off on the call-up in favor of keeping flexibility at other positions.

 

That said, I'm not opposed to it! I'd be excited to see Kirilloff, and I'd certainly hope he could be a postseason factor. But it might be more hope than realistic assessment right now.

[Trov]

 

Rooker's 40-man spot might be the only one we have to play with, at this point. So if there's a chance we may need to add another catcher, or shortstop, or pinch runner (do we have one of those?) for the postseason, adding Kirilloff in that spot might preclude those moves.

 

Unless you are confident that Kirilloff's bat could quickly become ready enough for the 2020 MLB postseason, it's defensible to hold off on the call-up in favor of keeping flexibility at other positions.

 

That said, I'm not opposed to it! I'd be excited to see Kirilloff, and I'd certainly hope he could be a postseason factor. But it might be more hope than realistic assessment right now.

That is a good point about the only possible 40 man spot, but if either Avila or Garver cannot go post-season, we could move either to long term DL as well.  I mean Garver has to be getting close to 40 days by now anyways.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That is a good point about the only possible 40 man spot, but if either Avila or Garver cannot go post-season, we could move either to long term DL as well.  I mean Garver has to be getting close to 40 days by now anyways.  

The problem is, in order to be eligible for postseason replacement, a player must be eligible to return from the IL. That means they must have spent the minimum number of days required on their IL -- 10 for the 10-day IL, or 45 for the 45-day IL.

 

So while we could move Rooker or Garver or Avila or anyone else to the 45-day IL now to open up a spot on the 40-man roster, we can't also use that spot to make the new player postseason eligible anymore, because it is now impossible for those guys to spend 45 days on the IL before the start of the postseason. (Since he last played on August 19, Garver wouldn't be eligible for postseason replacement on the 45-day IL until at least the second round.)

 

So to add a single new player to the postseason roster from here on out, we may have to put Rooker on the 45-day IL to make room for the new player on the 40-man, AND petition for the new player to replace Homer Bailey as postseason eligible, because Bailey has already served 45 days on his IL stint. That means we may only get one shot to add a player in this manner. (Not sure if Gordon may also be eligible for postseason replacement?)

 

Other factors:

- putting someone on the 45-day IL now would make them ineligible for the entire postseason -- what if Garver or Avila may only miss a round or two, but we hope they can return?

- once the regular season ends, you can't put a player on the 45-day IL anymore -- so we may put Rooker on there before the end of the regular season and leave our 40-man roster at 39 for some wiggle room during the postseason. If someone gets hurt in the postseason, then we could use the open spot as necessary.

[MNT1996]

 

This is an awfully definitive statement considering he's a 22 year old who OPSed .750 at AA last season and has never played at a higher level than that... Color me skeptical.

 

Jeffers and Kirilloff had similar BAs at AA last season and Jeffers has held his own pretty well. Sure Kirilloff's SLG was lower than Jeffers' was, but judging by his numbers from previous minor league seasons he definitely has pop. Jeffers also never played higher than AA. 

[twins1095]

 

Jeffers and Kirilloff had similar BAs at AA last season and Jeffers has held his own pretty well. Sure Kirilloff's SLG was lower than Jeffers' was, but judging by his numbers from previous minor league seasons he definitely has pop. Jeffers also never played higher than AA. 

 

Kirilloff played his last season less than a year removed from a hamate bone--an injury notoriously known for sapping power for a year post-surgery. This injury generally does not have a long-term effect on power potential, but in virtually all cases has a significant short-term effect even after the injury is healed and the player has returned to play.

 

Here's an article: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/5/2/5672834/hamate-fractures-and-power-in-the-pitchfx-era

 

Here's the conclusion:

 

Overall, it appears that with time, player's who succumb to a hamate injury will find themselves back to previous power numbers upon their return to play, though it will probably take roughly a full season of at bats to do so. Of course a number of other factors could predispose a player to not bounce back quite as quickly or as robustly—age of injury, previous injury history, and even the time it took for correct diagnosis and treatment approach all play potential roles—but compared to other upper extremity injuries, the outlook for a full return to health and hitting power with the hamate fracture is generally promising.

 

Kirilloff's low-power numbers are not only not surprising, but expected. In addition, if you look at his second half splits versus his first half splits as he got further removed from the surgery... predictably his power numbers really began to improve. Kirlloff, as a hitter, is a couple of magnitudes better than Jeffers.

[jimbo92107]

The reason Alex Kirilloff is a top prospect is because his approach at the plate is top notch, even better than some current members of the Twins. We have seen his scatter chart, which shows almost no trends to let opposing teams make defensive shifts. He is a high-average hitter with very high contact rate, has gap power with occasional dingers. Closest comp on the team would be another Luis Arraez, with a bit more pop. When healthy, Arraez has been an excellent table setter that also can knock in a guy on second base. Could the Twins use another guy like that? Um, yeah. They have really missed Arraez's bat in the lineup these last few games. A few extra hits might have made a difference.

 

A counter argument is that Kirilloff might scuffle at the plate initially, which is possible. But scuffling is less likely when you've got a high-contact approach at the plate. Arraez was hot pretty much right away, and his scatter chart is not as scattered as Kirilloff's. 

 

Table setter, RBI getter. Twins could use another bat like that, and his defense should be good enough to give Rosy and Kep a day off on the grass. I'd bring him up yesterday. 

[twins1095]

 

The reason Alex Kirilloff is a top prospect is because his approach at the plate is top notch, even better than some current members of the Twins. We have seen his scatter chart, which shows almost no trends to let opposing teams make defensive shifts. He is a high-average hitter with very high contact rate, has gap power with occasional dingers. Closest comp on the team would be another Luis Arraez, with a bit more pop. When healthy, Arraez has been an excellent table setter that also can knock in a guy on second base. Could the Twins use another guy like that? Um, yeah. They have really missed Arraez's bat in the lineup these last few games. A few extra hits might have made a difference.

 

A counter argument is that Kirilloff might scuffle at the plate initially, which is possible. But scuffling is less likely when you've got a high-contact approach at the plate. Arraez was hot pretty much right away, and his scatter chart is not as scattered as Kirilloff's. 

 

Table setter, RBI getter. Twins could use another bat like that, and his defense should be good enough to give Rosy and Kep a day off on the grass. I'd bring him up yesterday. 

 

This is just not at all true in terms of a comparison to Arraez. It's actually one of the worst takes I've seen here in awhile. Prior to his hamate bone injury, Kirilloff had 71 XBH in 131 games including 7 triples and 20 HRs.

 

He also really doesn't walk a lot, his BB% in the minors has been between 4-8%. He doesn't strike out a lot either, his strikeout rate has been in the mid-teen percentage wise. If you're looking for a comparable based on that it's Eddie Rosario.

 

I would actually compare Kirilloff a lot to a young Eddie Rosario who came up and hit 18 2Bs, 15 3Bs (led the league), and 13 HRs in 122 games. Basically, Rosario had gap power that eventually developed into HR power. Or I guess Joe Mauer if you want to go there. 

 

Luis Arraez has singles power and is a really patient hitter. That's not Kirilloff at all. Like at all at all.

[Dodecahedron]

If I were in charge, I would never call up someone new in a bonkers season like this one unless I had no alternative. I would even sign or make a trade for a placeholder instead of calling up a prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If I were in charge, I would never call up someone new in a bonkers season like this one unless I had no alternative. I would even sign or make a trade for a placeholder instead of calling up a prospect.

Why? Only difference from a team standpoint is service time is prorated.

 

Can't see much difference for the players whether they are working out with a group in St. Paul or traveling with the group in Minneapolis.

[4twinsJA]

It will be time to bring some young players up to the Twins next year. There are some older players on the Twins this year that under performed. Just was such a odd year this year to bring someone up.