Article: Twins Punting 2013? Not So Fast

[jokin]

Great article, Nick, and definitely puts things into perspective. Until Greinke and Sanchez sign, we may not see that next tier sign, and I think this flexibility allows them to be in on the likes of Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum and others in the $8-12 million range.

 

I think that boat has set sail. Greinke is trying for $25M and anything close to that lifts all the other boats in the water. Haren just signed for $13M and all the guys you mentioned will ask and likely receive at least that much and possibly much more.

[mlbfan]

arcia and hicks are will be better defensively than revere, and possibly as well as span. They are definitely better offensively. Yes, they haven't been in the majors yet but i'd take my chances there. The twins are better off with the return. They have drastically needed starting pitching for a few years now. Solid defense and pitching will win games. You have to give yourself at chance to win. We didn't have that the last couple years. I'm looking forward to this season, and I will actually be excited if they spend some money on an ace.

 

I will be excited if they spend money on an ace as well. Unfortunately, Terry Ryan has already said that he will not try for the top free agents (he says you have to be realistic) ie cheap.

[jmlease1]

Well-stated, Nick. That said, I think 1 more veteran pitcher (Marcum or Dempster are my preferences) might be enough to solidify the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, & Worley with 1 more coming from the Hendriks/De Vries/Walters/Deduno/Blackburn/et al group. Are any of those last group of Twins pitchers going to make your socks roll up & down? No, but we'd be looking for a 4th starter, not a 1, 2, or 3. I assume Gibson's innings will be limited, so think of him as the 5th starter. I think we can find a 4th starter out of that crew.

 

That leaves up with some payroll flexibility to shore up the infield, giving us more options at 2B/SS, insurance/competition for Plouffe at 3B, etc.

 

Now, if Plouffe can be an 800 OPS player with adequate defense, and Parmelee hits better than Span the offense should still be pretty good. You can't call them the favorites for 2013, but surrender? By adding a solid starter while dropping salary, the Twins have put themselves in position to keep building a good roster and preparing for the next wave from the minors (which is now looking like a pretty strong system again).

[one_eyed_jack]

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

 

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

 

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

 

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

 

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:

 

 

Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE:

 

 

Detroit Tigers 6/1

 

New York Yankees 7/1

San Francisco Giants 10/1

Texas Rangers 12/1

Washington Nationals 12/1

Los Angeles Angels 12/1

Philadelphia Phillies 14/1

St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

 

---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/20740003/detroit-tigers-favored-to-win-2013-world-series

 

I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day.

[revdrev]

One important thing to keep in mind: Worley is recovering from surgery to remove a "loose body" and a bone spur from his elbow. Pitchers who have had similar offseason surgeries typically need 2-3 months of the next season to get back into shape, which means Worley probably isn't going to be in form until next June or July. And that means Worley isn't really going to help the Twins contend until 2014-16. I'd guess that's been factored into Terry Ryan's plan, anyway.

 

I like this move for the long term. Even if Trevor May doesn't solve his control problems, I'd still rather have Vance Worley (assuming he gets healthy) over the next 4 years than Ben Revere. But it definitely does look like another sign of punting on 2013, unless Ryan is quietly planning to spend money on the lineup as well as starting pitching this winter. The lineup, as it stands, looks like it's probably going to be below-average, and possibly even really poor.

 

The guy who knows TJ better than anybody said Worley doesn't need it after he examined him.

 

http://articles.philly.com/2012-05-24/sports/31826963_1_vance-worley-tommy-john-surgery-ulnar-collateral-ligament

[Riverbrian]

I don't think it's totally accurate to say the are punting... I'd say it was 1st down and 40 and they just completed a 15 yard pass.

 

It's 2nd down and 25 to go.

[Fatt Crapps]

Hendriks had bone chips removed. Lots of pitchers do that. Nathan did it. Santana had it done the offseason before he won his first Cy Young. Worley had his surgery in August, so he should be completely fine.

 

How did that turn out again?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=4973472

[Mauerpower]

Nathan had tommy john. completely different. the spurs were removed after he was recovering from the surgery. Don't worry over worley.

[jokin]

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

 

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

 

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

 

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

 

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:

 

 

Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE:

 

 

Detroit Tigers 6/1

 

New York Yankees 7/1

San Francisco Giants 10/1

Texas Rangers 12/1

Washington Nationals 12/1

Los Angeles Angels 12/1

Philadelphia Phillies 14/1

St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

 

---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/20740003/detroit-tigers-favored-to-win-2013-world-series

 

I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day.

 

You're right that they'll change and for the record, I hate the Tigers style of play, but given the Yankees currently in freefall and steadfast on holding on a current payroll at ~$180M- and the Rangers still not sure about their lineup for 2013, you've essentially now extended the odds of both of the other 2 AL teams on this list. The Giants are pretty much standing pat. As you point out, the oddsmaking began BEFORE the signing of Hunter, given all of these facts, as painful as it is for me to declare, the Tigers are currently the clear favorites to at least MAKE the World Series, if not take it all.

[Fatt Crapps]

the spurs were removed after he was recovering from the surgery.

 

Nope.

[jokin]

I don't think it's totally accurate to say the are punting... I'd say it was 1st down and 40 and they just completed a 15 yard pass.

 

It's 2nd down and 25 to go.

 

is that with Ponder at QB and Harvin on IR? If so, they're punting- on 3rd Down.

[Mauerpower]

ha that's my bad I got that backwards. However, a bone spur and and bone chip still are not the same thing.

[clutterheart]

2013 is written off as far as I am concerned.

 

If you are going to do it, do it right.

 

Trade Mauer. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham.

[Mauerpower]

ha i read that backwards. however, a bone spur and bone chip are still completely different.

[glunn]

It seems to me that the Twins need at least a solid #2 starter to have a decent shot to contend. Would it make sense to make a big offer to Anibal Sanchez?

[frightwig]

Drew Storen had surgery to remove bone chips in April of last season, came back in July and posted a 2.37 ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP the rest of the way.

 

Storen came back to throw 4.1 innings in July (4.15 ERA, 4.2 K/9), 10.2 innings in August (3.38 ERA, 6.8 K/9), and 15.1 innings in Sept/October (1.17 ERA, 8.2 K/9). He had a light workload that got progressively greater as he seemed to get stronger. I don't think that's the model we can expect Worley to follow. Worley is going to be expected to take his regular turns in the rotation, and I'm anticipating that the results won't look so hot for at least a couple months (while we occasionally read reports about 'breaking the scar tissue,' building strength, and gaining confidence in his elbow) because I've seen that movie before.

 

Johan Santana in April/May 2004 is a big example that comes to mind (of course he was awesome from June onwards that season and won the Cy Young, because he was Johan Santana in his prime, but he had a 5.61 ERA in April/May). In June 2010, Santana also commented to the media about his slow recovery from another off-season surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow (LINK: http://metsblog.com/metsblog/johan-santanas-elbow-isnt-fully-recovered-from-surgery/). Part of his complaint at that time was that the injury had affected his mechanics... and, who knows, maybe that led to the shoulder injury that put him out for 2011, too. If 2004 Santana is a best-case scenario (Cy Young after a rough start), I guess the ultimate outcome of Santana's 2010 season would be the worst-case.

 

I'm hopeful that Worley will be able to post a 4.00 ERA, or better, after May next season, and will go on to have a successful Twins career. In the meantime, I also hope that Twins fans won't immediately write him off if he struggles out of the gate next spring. Some recovery time at the start of the season should be expected.

[jessellsworth]

The Twins are not punting, and should not be punting in 2013. Look at the state of this division. Not a powerhouse in it. It was the weakest in baseball in 2012, and I don't really see it being any better next year. If the Twins can upgrade their starting pitching and middle infield from godawful to competent, they'll be able to hang in the race for a while.

 

 

No power team in the division? What division are the Tigers in?? Didn't they just makes the World Series?? I could be wrong. But I thought they did and have Victor Martinez coming back and signed Torri Hunter.

[bird]

The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

 

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

[Shane Wahl]

Good article, Nick. It's amazing how things can turn. I am still flabbergasted by getting a legit pitcher for 2013 and a prospect for the future in return for Ben Revere.

 

From Philly's perspective, it is actually good too. They save a bunch of money and can spend on pitching or whatever. Michael Young and Dempster or somebody are possibilities now without spending that money on Bourn.

[Shane Wahl]

It had looked like a punt after the Span trade. But this Revere deal had been in the works for awhile anyway.

 

What's fascinating to me is that Aaron Hicks, who was maligned by Twins "fans" going into 2012, may MAY be the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the 2013 Twins.

[shs_59]

sign Ichiro!!!!! lol not really

 

but maybe

 

anyways REMEMBER NOT TO RUSH AARON HICKS he needs a FULL season of AA/ AAA time.

[Shane Wahl]

The FA market is pretty bad for CF after the top players. It seems doubtful that the Twins would do that now.

[jokin]

The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

 

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

 

Not surprisingly, you're a nest-half-full guy. What else would you expect Ryan to say in this situation? Read his actions, they speak far more clearly than his words.

[jokin]

It had looked like a punt after the Span trade. But this Revere deal had been in the works for awhile anyway.

 

What's fascinating to me is that Aaron Hicks, who was maligned by Twins "fans" going into 2012, may MAY be the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the 2013 Twins.

 

 

Dave has him alreay penciled for the BBHOF, others remain cautiously optimistic that everything finally clicked last year after all these years in the wilderness and that he's virtually on the cusp of a great Twins career that may net him membership in the Twins HOF some day.

 

Having said that, it would be a stunning development if he left with the team in April. Erik Komatsu and Clete Thomas will probably be available again on the waiver wire.

[beckmt]

Hicks should get the chance. We need to start exposing the younger players and slowing the process down will not help either the attendance or the Twins major league club. If he fails he can season in Rocester.

[h2oface]

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

 

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

 

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

 

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

 

Yes, really. The point is to get in the play-offs, and then perform, right? The season really doesn't matter as much as what you do in the play-offs, as long as you get in. Cardinals in 2006 (83 wins), Twins in 1987 (85 wins), Yankees in 2000 (87 wins). All earned the World Series title with dismal records. True, 2012's Tigers (88 wins) got swept in the Series when the the bats went cold, but other than the first game, the pitching didn't. They outperformed the rest of the league when the pressure was on, still earned their spot in the series, and their players performed when it counted more than any other team in the American League, and they did it as a team, not individuals that considered themselves stars-and-scrubs. I tip my hat to them as a baseball fan first, and a Twins' fan second. I like Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame, too. He did what he had to do to win the game, and to win BIG games. Sometimes that means you don't have to get everybody out all the time.

[johnnydakota]

2013 is written off as far as I am concerned.

 

If you are going to do it, do it right.

 

Trade Mauer. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham.

 

Mlb rumors reports Terry Ryan will listen to offere for everyone including Morneau and MAUER

so does that mean Ellsbury in cf,and Lester in the rotation?

[mako83]

Revere couldnt handle being the no.1 cf. On pitching I am happy we got someone. But I still think we should go after a ss,2b,3b player right now. Screw sp until grenike and sanchez sign.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

 

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

 

I think this is well said... a lot of things will have to break right for the Twins to contend, but some smart moves can make this team a .500 club.

 

Presently I'm not sure we are any better than we were last season (though I'm not sure we are much worse either), but one big signing and that will change. Like others said, this team is still going to need pitching in 2015. Getting a guy like Sanchez who is 28 and would have a decent bet of providing decent value to that big contract makes a ton of sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

 

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

 

Agreed 100%. If the Twins pick up Dempster, they're instantly a better team than they were in 2012. If they pick up Marcum and, say, Liriano, they're quite a bit better. If they pick up Marcum, Liriano, and find a way to pull a middle infielder off the market, they're a vastly superior team to the 2012 squad.