MIL 6, MIN 4: Another Loss for Rogers, Additional Missed Opportunities for Offense

[h2oface]

 

......My point, if I had one, was that sometimes the breaks even out over the course of a game, making post-game whining a bit one-sided. Seemed that it may not have worked out that way this time, and a close game was lost.

 

 

I never understand how more wrong calls and the  "even out" rationale makes it OK. It is just more wrong calls that steal the game from the players, and affecting outcomes that never get to happen. Every day. Every game.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I put this loss squarely on Rocco--Rogers has no business pitching on no days of rest; see the breakdown below for his 2019 stats split by whether or not he got rest.

 

Total: 69 IP, 278 Batters Faced, 58 hits, 11 BB, 1.00 WHIP, 11.7 k/9, 1.4 bb/9, 1.0 HR/9, .209 BAA, 2.61 ERA, 2.59 FIP

 

With rest: 54 IP, 201 Batters, 38 hits, 4 BB, 0.78 WHIP, 11.5 k/9, 0.7 bb/9, 0.5 HR/9, .189 BAA, 1.33 ERA, 1.60 FIP

 

With no rest: 15 IP, 77 Batters, 20 hits, 7 BB, 1.80 WHIP, 12.6 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 3.0 HR/9, .260 BAA, 7.20 ERA, 6.15 FIP

 

With rest, Rogers is basically the best reliever in baseball.  Without it, he might not even be a 4A guy.  Falvine needs to tell the equipment manager to not issue Taylor a uniform the day after he pitches.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I never understand how more wrong calls and the  "even out" rationale makes it OK. It is just more wrong calls that steal the game from the players, and affecting outcomes that never get to happen. Every day. Every game.

Unless one insists that every game should be played indoors, avoiding the effects of sun, wind, and rain, we're all accepting of the "even out" principle in some form. The players don't compete in a vacuum.

 

Some folks just view human umpire performance on that same continuum, while others do not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I put this loss squarely on Rocco--Rogers has no business pitching on no days of rest; see the breakdown below for his 2019 stats split by whether or not he got rest.

 

Total: 69 IP, 278 Batters Faced, 58 hits, 11 BB, 1.00 WHIP, 11.7 k/9, 1.4 bb/9, 1.0 HR/9, .209 BAA, 2.61 ERA, 2.59 FIP

 

With rest: 54 IP, 201 Batters, 38 hits, 4 BB, 0.78 WHIP, 11.5 k/9, 0.7 bb/9, 0.5 HR/9, .189 BAA, 1.33 ERA, 1.60 FIP

 

With no rest: 15 IP, 77 Batters, 20 hits, 7 BB, 1.80 WHIP, 12.6 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 3.0 HR/9, .260 BAA, 7.20 ERA, 6.15 FIP

 

With rest, Rogers is basically the best reliever in baseball.  Without it, he might not even be a 4A guy.  Falvine needs to tell the equipment manager to not issue Taylor a uniform the day after he pitches.

I'm not claiming that pitcher performance should be equal between these splits, but I think they likely overstate the real magnitude of difference.

 

Statistically, the smaller the sample, the more prone it is to variation, even without causation. Rogers had his worst game last year on zero days rest, and as it is the smaller of the two samples, that bad appearance is given more weight.

 

There may also be other factors at play. Pitchers may be more likely to be asked to pitch on zero days rest in tougher circumstances. Of course, tougher circumstances could also include trying to pitch back-back against the same team like last night. Gyorko saw 4 pitches from Rogers on Monday night before hitting a deep fly, and that could have contributed to his second-pitch HR off Rogers on Tuesday night -- that would still be on Rocco if he pitched him back-to-back vs Milwaukee when he didn't have to, but it doesn't necessarily say much about Rogers' effectiveness pitching back-to-back versus two different clubs in the future.

[Halsey Hall]

I must admit this is getting hard to watch.  I even turned it off one game.  Disappointing, for sure. 

[Rosterman]

Blankenhorn or Gordon instead of a reserve guy from the Diamondbacks.

 

The pitching lineup of this game made little sense. Where were the two inning+ bullpen arms of the Twins? 

 

Rogers into a tie game where you will need a pitcher anyways for the 9th or beyond.

 

Now the "good" arms of the bullpen are ALL pretty shot for the next game.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I'm not claiming that pitcher performance should be equal between these splits, but I think they likely overstate the real magnitude of difference.

 

Statistically, the smaller the sample, the more prone it is to variation, even without causation. Rogers had his worst game last year on zero days rest, and as it is the smaller of the two samples, that bad appearance is given more weight.

 

There may also be other factors at play. Pitchers may be more likely to be asked to pitch on zero days rest in tougher circumstances. Of course, tougher circumstances could also include trying to pitch back-back against the same team like last night. Gyorko saw 4 pitches from Rogers on Monday night before hitting a deep fly, and that could have contributed to his second-pitch HR off Rogers on Tuesday night -- that would still be on Rocco if he pitched him back-to-back vs Milwaukee when he didn't have to, but it doesn't necessarily say much about Rogers' effectiveness pitching back-to-back versus two different clubs in the future.

 

Last year, 4 of his 17 appearances on no rest cam against teams that made the playoffs.  He had 1 against Detroit, 2 against KC, 2 against the Angels, 2 against Miami, 1 against the White Sox and 1 against Baltimore.  Take those out, and you have 8 appearances--2 against Cleveland, 2 against the Brewers, and 1 each against the Yankees, the Phillies, the Rays, and the BoSox.  In those 8 outings, spanning 7.1 IP, he had 4.9 bb/9, 6.1 HR/9, a .308 BAA, a 2.18 WHIP, a 12.27 ERA, and a 10.99 FIP; this would suggest Rogers should absolutely unequivocally not be used against good teams on no rest.

 

This is borne out by the fact that in 11 appearances against those same 6 teams (7 against Cleveland, 1 against everyone else except the Brewers), he pitched 15 innings with 0.6 bb/9, 0.6 HR/9, a .185 BAA, 0.73 WHIP, 0.60 ERA, and 2.01 FIP.  He only gave up one run in those 11 appearances, and that was against Cleveland.

 

Now; it's certainly possible this is small sample size--except for the 15 innings he pitched last year on no rest were almost 22% of his total innings--it's like saying if a pitcher is bad for 6 weeks that it's just a small sample.  In a normal season, you could maybe make that case.  This year, 6 weeks is close to 2/3 of the year.  At this point, maybe we follow what the data suggests, which is that Rogers is much less likely to be effective on no rest, and stop trying to increase the sample size to see if the results stick.  It's like wondering if you'll get hurt crashing your car at 45 MPH, and deciding the only way to find out is to just go ahead and crash.  Maybe you'll be fine, but the downside is not worth it.

[twinfan]

Rogers is going through what all closers go through. However, it seems to me that the bullpen's problems are more with the "unknowns" like Wisler, Alcala, Guerrin and Thorpe whose command isn't there yet. We need some more veteran presence here. I'm not sure why Romo hasn't pitched more but he may have been hurt earlier. Let's see what becomes available as we get towards the end of August. 

[h2oface]

 

Unless one insists that every game should be played indoors, avoiding the effects of sun, wind, and rain, we're all accepting of the "even out" principle in some form. The players don't compete in a vacuum.

 

Hmmmmm. And balls and strikes was what the comment was addressed to. I do agree about the vacuum, though. After all, this isn't outer space or a Dyson.

[twinfan]

I've seen several games from both leagues on various channels and the balls-strikes calls have been awful. Even when the catcher on another team got crossed up and hurt his hand the other day, the pitch was right down the middle of the plate and the umpire never moved. Maybe they should give 1000 fans a button to call balls and strikes on each pitch as we can see the ball in the box. And there are hundreds of umps who make the big mistake of calling the pitch (especially a big curve ball) where the catcher catches it rather than where the ball is as it passes the batter. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now; it's certainly possible this is small sample size--except for the 15 innings he pitched last year on no rest were almost 22% of his total innings--it's like saying if a pitcher is bad for 6 weeks that it's just a small sample.  In a normal season, you could maybe make that case.  This year, 6 weeks is close to 2/3 of the year.  At this point, maybe we follow what the data suggests, which is that Rogers is much less likely to be effective on no rest, and stop trying to increase the sample size to see if the results stick.

Splits are tough to judge over a season or two because they are relatively small samples, and reliever splits especially because a reliever's normal workload is pretty small as it is.

 

I don't doubt that pitchers would have reduced effectiveness on zero days rest, but MLB isn't quite like most other pro sports -- you can't avoid back-to-backs forever. Pennant race, postseason, eventually you're going to need to ask your best players to perform in these spots. So it's a bit of a balancing act, just like managing days off and pitcher workloads. So I wouldn't say Rocco should never do it again with Rogers, but hopefully everyone involved is trying different things and figuring out how to make things work best when it comes to crunch time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hmmmmm. And balls and strikes was what the comment was addressed to.

Yes, and I'm saying the "evening out" of balls and strikes (via umpire performance) is comparable to the "evening out" of factors that we readily accept. We'll all have different places where we draw our subjective line, and some folks will accept the umpire performance and some won't, and that's fine -- but the principle of "evening out" in the sport is not unusual by itself.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Splits are tough to judge over a season or two because they are relatively small samples, and reliever splits especially because a reliever's normal workload is pretty small as it is.

 

I don't doubt that pitchers would have reduced effectiveness on zero days rest, but MLB isn't quite like most other pro sports -- you can't avoid back-to-backs forever. Pennant race, postseason, eventually you're going to need to ask your best players to perform in these spots. So it's a bit of a balancing act, just like managing days off and pitcher workloads. So I wouldn't say Rocco should never do it again with Rogers, but hopefully everyone involved is trying different things and figuring out how to make things work best when it comes to crunch time.

 

This is the entire point I'm making; pitching on zero days rest, Taylor Rogers is no longer one of the Twins' best players.  Continuing to treat him as such is ignoring statistical data, and is costing the Twins games.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Nice post.

 

...

 

This is borne out by the fact that in 11 appearances against those same 6 teams (7 against Cleveland, 1 against everyone else except the Brewers), he pitched 15 innings with 0.6 bb/9, 0.6 HR/9, a .185 BAA, 0.73 WHIP, 0.60 ERA, and 2.01 FIP.  He only gave up one run in those 11 appearances, and that was against Cleveland...

 

Did you mean to say, "in 11 appearances on at least a day's rest against those same 6 teams."

 

That was good research, so important to be certain of the point you made.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Nice post.

 

 

Did you mean to say, "in 11 appearances on at least a day's rest against those same 6 teams."

 

That was good research, so important to be certain we're clear on the point you made.

 

Correct, that is what I meant to say.  Rogers rested is death on the opposition--any opposition.  Rogers not rested is death on the Twins, particularly against quality opposition.