How COVID-19 Will Hurt Eddie Rosario and the Twins

[SkyBlueWaters]

IF Buxton stays healthy, and

IF Kepler doesn’t have to move to center for us, and

IF our prospects can hit MLB pitching like they hit MiLB pitching,

 

THEN we might have a glut of outfielders.

 

But we’ve seen good hitting prospects peak at double or triple A before. 
 

if they do play let’s make a deal, I sure hope it’s for a front-end starter. Someone able to shut up Yankee fans in October.

[Channing1964]

I'm over it. The idea of replacing your engine because you have a slow leak in a tire will never catch on in our Front Office. GO ROSARIO!!!

[Channing1964]

Below are the 2019 stats for 2 Twins players; I excluded counting stats as those are a function of playing time, and one player had only about 40% of the PA's as the other.  Based on the below, tell me which player you would prefer.

 

Player A: .258/.351/.455/.806.  .343 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 52.3% hard hit, 5.5% soft hit, 31.7% chase rate, 29.5 UZR/150 in LF

 

Player B: .276/.300/.500/.800.  .329 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 39% hard hit, 15.4% soft hit, 46.3% chase rate, -7.5 UZR/150 in LF

 

As it turns out, Player A is Jake Cave, in his age 26 season (meaning this year is his peak season) compared to Eddie in his age 27 season (supposedly his peak, although it was worse than either of his two previous seasons in a year that was a much better offensive year across the league).  I think Jake Cave, who posted 0.9 WAR in only 228 PA's, already more than fills the shoes of Rosario, who posted 1.2 WAR in 590 PA's.  Other than hit homeruns and accumulate RBI's (both of which are functions of playing time), what did Eddie do better than Cave in 2019?

 

Put it another way; would you rather pay $8M to $10M for a little more power, but overall worse offensive production and much worse defense, or $500k for slightly less power, but overall better offense and much better defense PLUS 2-3 more years of team control?

Ih I d

[Channing1964]

Ih I d

Oh Man why didn't you say so! Absolutely move Cave to the top of the depth chart. How could I have been so blind. I didnt notice any Hr, rbi, or extra base hit totals in those stat lines. And I guess its fair to assess it in say 502 p.a for Rosario and say 130 for Cave? Player B sounds like a starting left fielder on a 101 win team. Player A is what he is. A 4th or 5th outfielder off the bench with options who wont even stick on the 25 man if we need an extra arm or another catcher for a week. Gotcha...it makes sense now.

[yarnivek1972]

People advocating for the retention of Rosario seem to be forgetting these are still the Minnesota Twins. Money is, and likely will always be, a factor in every roster decision.

 

So, if Rosario is with the Twins next year, that’s about $12 to $15 mil the team can’t spend elsewhere. Like on an elite level starting pitcher for example.

[Danchat]

 

Oh Man why didn't you say so! Absolutely move Cave to the top of the depth chart. How could I have been so blind. I didnt notice any Hr, rbi, or extra base hit totals in those stat lines. And I guess its fair to assess it in say 502 p.a for Rosario and say 130 for Cave? Player B sounds like a starting left fielder on a 101 win team. Player A is what he is. A 4th or 5th outfielder off the bench with options who wont even stick on the 25 man if we need an extra arm or another catcher for a week. Gotcha...it makes sense now.

HR and XBH are included in slugging percentage, which was on there - Cave was at .455, Rosario was at .500. 

 

Also, let's check out clutch hitting:

Rosario: RISP: .340/.370 .908 OPS -- 109 RBIs in 590 PAs, 5.4 PAs per RBI

Cave: RISP: .244 /.340 .740 OPS --  25 RBIs in 228 PAs, 9.1 PAs per RBI

 

 

[Channing1964]

heh heh heh heh i remember when i used to do this crap way too much.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Ih I d

 

Convincingly and thoroughly argued.

[Channing1964]

Convincingly and thoroughly argued.

I've somehow lost the will to continue the quest.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Oh Man why didn't you say so! Absolutely move Cave to the top of the depth chart. How could I have been so blind. I didnt notice any Hr, rbi, or extra base hit totals in those stat lines. And I guess its fair to assess it in say 502 p.a for Rosario and say 130 for Cave? Player B sounds like a starting left fielder on a 101 win team. Player A is what he is. A 4th or 5th outfielder off the bench with options who wont even stick on the 25 man if we need an extra arm or another catcher for a week. Gotcha...it makes sense now.

 

I expressly stated I didn't include any counting stats--it's literally in the first line of my post.  You can't use counting stats to compare two different players with different amounts of playing time; if you could, it would mean Jake Cave is a far superior hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, since Cave had 8 homers, 21 XBH, and 28 RBI compared to Stanton's 3, 6, and 13.

 

Your absolute refusal to see what Eddie Rosario is (a decent player who excels in traditional batting counting stats, but is sub-par in everything else) is mystifying to me.  If Eddie does not have a bounce back year in 2020, he may very well not be a Twin in 2021.

[Channing1964]

I have lost the will and the motivation to continue this crusade. I reserve the right to be a fan of, and continue to cheer for E.Rosario. I am more interested in what he's gonna do than what the spread sheet says he's done or hasn't done.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

HR and XBH are included in slugging percentage, which was on there - Cave was at .455, Rosario was at .500. 

 

Also, let's check out clutch hitting:

Rosario: RISP: .340/.370 .908 OPS -- 109 RBIs in 590 PAs, 5.4 PAs per RBI

Cave: RISP: .244 /.340 .740 OPS --  25 RBIs in 228 PAs, 9.1 PAs per RBI

 

Let's talk about clutch hitting, but use career numbers to get a bigger sample size.  I also restricted the PA/RBI number to only RISP situations; using it overall is misleading, as Cave only got 11.8% of his PA's hitting 5th or higher, while Rosario got 99.3% of his hitting 3rd or 4th.

 

Rosario: RISP: .271/.306/.448 .754 OPS -- 239 RBI in 668 PA's, 2.8 PA's per RBI (Also, a 90 wRC+, and only 32.7% hard contact)

 

Cave: RISP: .305/.379/.552 .931 OPS --  49 RBI in 125 PA's, 2.6 PA's per RBI (wRC+ of 143, and 49.4% hard contact)

 

Clearly, Rosario had a knack for hitting with RISP last year, that is not in keeping with his historical baseline.  If you want to argue that Eddie's 173 PA's with RISP in 2019 is sufficient to change the narrative on him, keep in mind 173 is not that much more than 125 (Cave's career PA's with RISP), and Cave for his career has been better with RISP in almost every statistic than Eddie's outlier of 2019.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

The Twins are trying to win a World Series. I believe they have a better chance of doing that with Eddie Rosario in their lineup. This year and next.

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins are trying to win a World Series. I believe they have a better chance of doing that with Eddie Rosario in their lineup. This year and next.

Even if having Rosario in the lineup means they don’t upgrade the starting rotation? Keep in mind, Odorizzi is UFA. Where do you think they have a better chance to fill in a hole? Corner outfield or at the top of the rotation?

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins are trying to win a World Series. I believe they have a better chance of doing that with Eddie Rosario in their lineup. This year and next.

 

I agree for 2020. I am not so sure for 2021. It depends on if we get the 2017 and 1st half of 2018 Eddie or the 2nd half of 2018-2019 Eddie. If we get the latter in 2021 Cave + a wise investment of the roughly $10M delta between Eddie and Cave probably yields more significant value. However, I still think the most likely scenario is they hold onto Eddie through the end of his contract. However, it could come down to which Eddie shows up this year.

[DocBauer]

Sorry if I said this before, but I like Eddie and believe in him. I also think he has great instincts. I think his biggest issue...other than a general wildness in his plate coverage...has been a pair of injuries that limited him for parts of the past 2 seasons. His sticking around might not even be questioned if not for those injuries. (Hampered his defense as well).

 

I think he's back in 2021 not only because he's good, and his 2021 salary bump isn't really that significant, but no milb season will make it tougher for Larnach and Kirilloff to take that next step. Working with the coaches and scrimmaging is awesome compared to sitting at home. But it's not the same as a full season of play and development. Ergo, Rosario is the right choice for LF in 2021 at this time.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Even if having Rosario in the lineup means they don’t upgrade the starting rotation? Keep in mind, Odorizzi is UFA. Where do you think they have a better chance to fill in a hole? Corner outfield or at the top of the rotation?

especially looking at alternatives in house. Cave (113 wRC+) Wade(98 wRC+), Kirilloff(121 wRC+ in AA) & Rooker (139 wRC+ in AAA) all in house ready to back fill at major league rookie rates, or Eddie Rosario (103 wRC+) at 12 mil or more.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Great point! 2021 may be a stretch to my above statement.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Amazing how much the writers here hate him. Try to make everything his fault and now bashing him over covid? Give me a break. Fake news

I don't "hate" Eddie Rosario, It's not his fault - I don't hold anything against the guy, and really like watching him play.

 

I just think you can get almost as much, if not more value from a player making $11.5 million less than him.

 

I hope hope Eddie Rosario gets a really big payday in free agency.  

[Channing1964]

watch him win AL MVP this year hahaahaaa

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I don't "hate" Eddie Rosario, It's not his fault - I don't hold anything against the guy, and really like watching him play.

 

I just think you can get almost as much, if not more value from a player making $11.5 million less than him.

 

I hope hope Eddie Rosario gets a really big payday in free agency.  

 

Completely agree with this.  Pointing out there are holes in Rosario's game is not hating him, it's acknowledging the reality that the Twins are not the Yankees, and can't throw $10M-$12M at a player who's only kind of performing.  I also hope Eddie gets a big payday, and if it happens with the Twins, I'm ok with that.  That's because I trust Falvine, so if they're giving Eddie 5 and $100M, it's because he probably OPS'd close to 1.000 while playing much improved defense.  I just really doubt Eddie has that in him.

[theBOMisthebomb]

watch him win AL MVP this year hahaahaaa

I have been thinking to myself that Eddie is my dark horse MVP candidate for 2020. Just been afraid to say it out loud. If the guy hits a hot streak and stays healthy then the sky is the limit in this shortened season. Eddie! Eddie!! Eddie!!!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’d love to see Eddie win an MVP in ‘20. A great season from Eddie on their push to win a short season would be fantastic!

 

An MVP would guarantee he never plays another game for the Twins.

 

That MVP award, even in a short season, puts significant leverage on arbitration salary up.

 

A mediocre season would keep his final year of arbitration somewhat static. A huge year with an MVP... waive goodbye

[Channing1964]

whatever happens I just love him as a player and a person. Do what you do Eddie Rosario.