Can the Minnesota Twins Piggy-back Their Way to a Great Rotation?

[Patrick Wozniak]

While the news that Rich Hill will likely be ready to start the season certainly qualifies as good news, at some point the Twins may run into a numbers problem, with more starters than rotation spots. Could piggy-backing starters be a good solution to a welcome problem?If Hill is indeed ready to start the season in July, that would presumably leave a rotation of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Hill, and Homer Bailey. That might mean the end of Jhoulys Chacín (or possibly a bullpen role) and would leave young, but ready starters like Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe on the outside looking in (either in the ‘pen or on the taxi squad). Then there’s Michael Pineda who has 39 remaining games out of a 60-game suspension to serve. He’s all but guaranteed a rotation spot once he’s eligible to return and it’s still possible that the MLB might reduce the length of suspensions to correspond to the shortened season.

 

Regardless of how it all shakes out it seems that Minnesota will have more starters than rotation spots. There are numerous ways around this “problem” as guys like Dobnak and Thorpe can still be optioned or would probably be content with bullpen roles as long as it meant making the team. However, with Odorizzi, Hill, and Bailey becoming free agents after the season the Twins may want to get additional looks at their young starters. And if everyone stays healthy up until Pineda’s return, there’s going to be a crunch anyway.

 

While the Twins have done a great job of putting together a collection of quality arms, none of the starters are without their flaws. One potential solution to the quantity problem could also improve the quality of the rotation. By pairing or piggy-backing certain pitchers in the rotation, Minnesota could improve the overall strength of the rotation by reducing the third time through the order “penalty” that haunts many starters. If we take a closer look at the Twins rotation there are several candidates who would likely benefit from shorter outings.

 

Here’s each potential starter’s career OPS against for their first, second, and third times through the batting order:

 

Download attachment: Piggy-backing chart pic.png

 

Both Berrios and Hill have remained solid the third time through the order over the duration of their careers. As the “staff ace” it makes sense to let Berrios be. With Hill one could make an argument for limiting his innings due to his injury history, but his innings will be limited by the short season anyway, so he could easily be left in his traditional role.

 

The remainder of the rotation make good piggy-back candidates. Odorizzi has been terrible the third time through and tends to work up high pitch counts anyway, so he’s a no-brainer. Maeda’s a good fit as well as he tends to fall victim to the long-ball the later he pitches into games. Bailey’s strong finish after making adjustments in 2019 give reason for optimism, but he’s still the weakest link of this group, so getting him out of games sooner rather than later seems wise. Whenever Pineda makes it back from his suspension he could also benefit from avoiding a third trip through the order.

 

So what would a piggy-back rotation look like?

 

If the Twins should opt to go this route it’s likely to fluctuate based on performance and health, but for fun let’s assume everyone is healthy. The rotation could look something like this:

 

SP1: Berrios

SP2: Hill

SP3: Maeda/Thorpe

SP4: Odorizzi/Dobnak

SP5: Pineda/Bailey

 

The combinations could obviously be altered in whatever fashion the coaching staff/front office deems appropriate, but assuming health, the bodies are there (just to a lesser extent before Pineda’s return). Again, a lot could change based on performance and injuries but piggy-backing to some degree would seem to mitigate the third-time penalty while helping the bullpen to remain fresh and effective as well. Rocco Baldelli would also have the pieces in place to make quick pitching changes if any of the starting pitchers are ineffective.

 

What do you think? Is piggy-backing an effective way to use the plentitude of starters the Twins possess or is there a better way? Please leave your comments below!

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[Otwins]

Makes sense this year with the expanded roster size. Twins should push for a 30 man roster

[Richie the Rally Goat]

An 82 game season may end up being no off days and double headers where a 6-7 man rotation is all but required for some stretches. No such thing as too much pitching, even in a short season.

 

Abbreviated Spring Training might have an impact on being stretched out on opening day too.

[Cooper Carlson]

Love this idea, especially for Odorizzi and Bailey. Dobnak/Thorpe would be 4/5 in a lot of teams rotations so the Twins are in a great spot. 

[old nurse]

Hill has been a 6 inning pitcher, Berrios not that much better.  Hill would have to be separated from Berrios or your limited bullpen of 5 pitchers will get abused.

[howieramone2]

You don't need a great rotation to win the World Series. The game is decided on the field of play, not on paper. Falvey has us in the hunt, with enviable depth.

[Doctor Gast]

Great article! Piggy backing makes total sense to me w/ this rotation, this schedule, prospect depth & FA next year. Last year piggy backing worked well w/ Pineda & Perez, Pineda was slow in getting warmed up (his #s weren`t so good in the beginning) & Perez didn`t have what it takes to go long. This year IMO I think we should piggyback Hill also, he`ll need time to stretch him out. It`d be a shame if he gets hurt before the play-offs, that`s when we need him so I think that we could use even more arms. If we look at the ERA for each time through the order, it`d show the same thing & Maeda would be much higher like you said because  of his vulnerability of the long ball ETA 

[Trov]

I agree with this idea.  With the Taxi idea and 30 man rosters you know the Twins will make full use of moving pitchers in and out of roster spots as much as they can.  In a normal season under normal rules of optioning or DL use now back to 15 days, it would not be possible.  However, in this year using two starters in a normal day would be useful.  The biggest issue will be getting the pitchers on board and accepting it.

 

If you can get starter to go 4 innings two trips through order, and use next starter 4 innings 2 trips through order, that gets you into 9th where you should have nearly whole bullpen ready.

 

I would stagger the use of this though.  Meaning I would not go berrios and hill back to back but split a duel starter between the two.  That should hopefully give rest of pen more of break and less likely the need for other pen guys going back to back days. 

 

I would also look to mix up type of pitchers and if possible mix the side thrown from.  This will make it harder for teams to set lineup for the pitcher.  In the grouping listed, I would swap Thorpe and Pineda most likely.  That would change up right lefty combo for two starts and velo versus movement as well.  I like the Odo dobnik mix as one is fly ball pitcher other is ground ball pitcher.  So two trips looking at more up in zone stuff to then face a heavy sinker next.  Could lead to some adjustments. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm intrigued by this idea, but I would tweak a couple of things;

 

I wouldn't put Berrios and Hill back-to-back during the regular season.  A piggyback game should yield 7-8 innings from your "starters"; allowing each "starter" to face 18 batters means they could give up a WHIP of 1.5 and still cover 8 innings.  Therefore, the bullpen should be needed less on days with piggybacks, so why not space out the rest for the pen?

 

It's also possible the Twins could go to a six-man rotation, and still have two piggybacks, or alternatively, use Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer to be "finishers".  I would define that as letting them pitch 2-3 innings to finish out a game the Twins are winning comfortably.

 

Finally, the Twins could also give each pitcher an "IL stint" at various points in the season, where they let them skip a start in order to stay super fresh.

 

The upshot is that the Twins will have myriad options to manage the health and productivity of their pitching, which is something I'm not sure any other team can realistically say at this point.

[DocBauer]

I like the principal here, especially early on, when an abbreviated ST part 2 May not have everyone fully ramped up anyway. And if the roster really is sitting at around 30 players, then this makes it a very practical idea, especially considering the depth the Twins have. The obvious caveat, of course being fewer days off of a series of double headers, could change plans for "secondary" starters to be made available to do just that, start games.

 

Still a bit perplexed by the 80 games when a slightly extended season and some double headers could provide something closer to 90-92 games, but whatever.

 

Just a personal comment, the 3rd one through a lineup situation can be made clear through numbers, like those posted here. But in a normal season, like 2019, those numbers presumably existed. And yet, pitchers like Odorizzi and Pineda ultimately prevailed with quality years and quality seasons. So it's not like we are talking about bailing out bums in the rotation.