Suspension Presents Twins a Silver Lining

[Ted Schwerzler]

Yesterday was one of the largest whirlwinds the baseball world has ever seen. After the massive cancellations and postponements on March 11, Major League Baseball took action. Having been in Fort Myers intending to cover a baseball game, hypothetical tumbleweeds cross the Lee County Sports Complex. For the 2020 Twins however, this new reality presents two distinct positives.Despite what little information we have on where Byron Buxton had been in regards to appearing in game action, there seemed to be a zero percent chance he’d have been ready for Opening Day. Having just begun to face live pitching this week, and take some hacks at near 100%, the runway for ramp up time simply was not long enough. Less than 10 games remaining before Opening Day, getting acclimated would have been a problem.

 

As good as Minnesota is, there’s arguably no more valuable player to the team than their centerfielder. In games he played last year, the Twins went 62-25. A .713 winning percentage is truly unprecedented, and while his .827 OPS is glowing offensively, it’s the glue he provides to the defensive strategy as a whole. Max Kepler is a potentially elite fielder but is a bit more stretched in center. Utilizing Marwin Gonzalez or Jake Cave in the outfield is a step back as well. The Twins curbed some of their overall defensive issues by acquired an elite stopper at third in Josh Donaldson, but it’s Buxton that’s the linchpin for the greater whole.

 

 

Now with something like a month to prepare for Opening Day, Buxton should have ample opportunity to get right. He was progressing towards game action and will now have a similar opportunity to everyone else in regards to ramp up. Healing can continue to take place, and regardless of the direction players are given, process driven drills can continue to happen.

 

The other substantial come up here is on the mound. All offseason the front office sought impact pitching. Eventually they acquired an arm that fit the bill in the form of Kenta Maeda, but it was his former and current teammate Rich Hill that also posted numbers of importance.

 

Expected back sometime in the early summer, Hill is coming off a campaign in which he posted a 2.45 ERA and 11.0 K/9. Yes, injuries have been his bugaboo, but they’ve also been something he’s come through unscathed while being more than dominant when healthy. Rather than trudging through a couple months’ worth of games piecing together the back end of their rotation, Hill could provide a spark just weeks into the season.

 

Having pushed their chips in this offseason, it would only make sense that the Twins look at acquiring more arm talent around the trade deadline. We won’t know how that could be impacted until the logistics of this whole scheduling mess get figured out, but internally Minnesota will now see an intended boost on the bump sooner rather than later.

 

In all of this, we continue to wade through uncharted territory. The vibe around Twins camp was different over the past couple of days, and the measures put in place were like things never before imagined. Ultimately though, baseball will return. There will be another day, there will be a season, and the same opportunity to push towards a World Series is on the horizon for Rocco Baldelli’s squad.

 

We’re going to need to wait a bit longer this time around, but the reward of two substantial assets being more readily available is one that could pay big dividends.

 

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[segagenesisgenius]

The problem is that this probably helps our main competitors more than us. Some, such as myself, were of the opinion that Bux was actually being artificially held back so that he wasn't given an unnecessary amount of ST action in which he could have hurt himself. After all, the most important thing for Bux to be helpful to us isnt his bat but his glove, and his glove shouldnt need much ramp up time.

 

Otherwise, while this may help Hill get back earlier, it also pushes back how soon Pinada can join us. Given how iffy Hill is as an option, I personally consider this at best as a neutral exchange.

 

More painfully, this gives the Yankees and Indians and Astros a chance to enter the league fully healthy, rather than starting out injured and letting us build a cushion. The Yanks were expected to be without Hicks, Paxton, Stanton, and Judge. If the start is delayed a few weeks, they can get back each of Paxton, Stanton, and Judge. If a month+, they might get close to Hicks. Similarly, this delay might enable both Clevinger and Carrasco to be ready for the start of the season when they previously were not supposed to be. This will also allow Verlander to start the season for the astros, which he previously was not supposed to.

 

I dont want to be unnecessarily negative, but this delay is frankly far better for our main competitors than it is for us.

[KFEY93]

 

The problem is that this probably helps our main competitors more than us. Some, such as myself, were of the opinion that Bux was actually being artificially held back so that he wasn't given an unnecessary amount of ST action in which he could have hurt himself. After all, the most important thing for Bux to be helpful to us isnt his bat but his glove, and his glove shouldnt need much ramp up time.

Otherwise, while this may help Hill get back earlier, it also pushes back how soon Pinada can join us. Given how iffy Hill is as an option, I personally consider this at best as a neutral exchange.

More painfully, this gives the Yankees and Indians and Astros a chance to enter the league fully healthy, rather than starting out injured and letting us build a cushion. The Yanks were expected to be without Hicks, Paxton, Stanton, and Judge. If the start is delayed a few weeks, they can get back each of Paxton, Stanton, and Judge. If a month+, they might get close to Hicks. Similarly, this delay might enable both Clevinger and Carrasco to be ready for the start of the season when they previously were not supposed to be. This will also allow Verlander to start the season for the astros, which he previously was not supposed to.

I dont want to be unnecessarily negative, but this delay is frankly far better for our main competitors than it is for us.

Could not have said it better myself. 

[ewen21]

We have a near pandemic the likes we’ve never seen, but a least we don’t need to worry about whether or not Byron Buxton is ready.

 

We wouldn’t miss a beat without him if you ask me. Yeah he provides great defense but it isn’t like he’s a catcher or a shortstop. He simply doesn’t see enough opportunities to make his glove as much of a presence as what I read here. He makes a difference, but when he’s barely getting on base and not hitting much (which is pretty common) he hurts us as much as he helps.

 

He could breathe a sigh of relief, I guess. The man has a .567 OPS for his career in April. As far as the sentiment about him not getting at bats during ST was OK since there was concern about him getting hurt really is counterintuitive thinking. If you feel that way then you basically have asserted he’s destined to be hurt.

[Darius]

He looks phenomenal right now, physically. He looks stronger. It could just be the angle of the clip, but his bat speed looks good. From all of the clips I’ve seen/articles I’ve read, he seems to have an heir of confidence/maturity that’s a little more pronounced than in the past.

 

Obviously, my information is all second hand and I’m merely an amateur watching from afar. But, I’m convinced that this is guy is going to break through in a big way this year, once fully acclimated post-injury.

 

We started to see it last year. .260, 10 HR, among the league leaders in doubles, 3 3B .825+ OPS, 46 RBI, 14 steals, etc...in almost exactly half of a season. If he does that over 145-150 games with his All-World defense, he’s a top 10-20 position player in the MLB in terms of WAR. If he improves on that, he’s up there with the Trouts and Bellingers as an 8+ win player.

[howieramone2]

Teams with depth have the least to worry about.

[JoshDungan1]

Unfortunately it also provides the slightly dark cloud that we now have no idea as to when Pineda will be coming off his suspension. If the hiatus lasts long enough, we honestly might end up seeing Hill back before Big Mike.

[DocBauer]

Interesting thought process here. The good get even better by getting even healthier. I think it's a valid point in the case of Buxton.

 

I tend to disagree on Hill, however. He is outstanding when healthy. Unfortunately, a big chunk of his career, certainly the past few seasons, he's only ever healthy for about half the season. With that in mind, and recovering from surgery, I always felt like a safer, more practical return for Hill was about July. He basically becomes a quality mid-year trade acquisition equivalent. What could take place, however, is a shortened season providing a longer frame of impact from him.

 

**Interesting idea in another thread was a shortened season should mean a shortening of the Pineda suspension. That would make sense to me, adjusting the percentage of games/time missed, otherwise he would actually be further penalized by missing a greater portion of the season than was initially laid down/intended in his punishment.

[Mr. Brooks]

Interesting thought process here. The good get even better by getting even healthier. I think it's a valid point in the case of Buxton.

 

I tend to disagree on Hill, however. He is outstanding when healthy. Unfortunately, a big chunk of his career, certainly the past few seasons, he's only ever healthy for about half the season. With that in mind, and recovering from surgery, I always felt like a safer, more practical return for Hill was about July. He basically becomes a quality mid-year trade acquisition equivalent. What could take place, however, is a shortened season providing a longer frame of impact from him.

 

**Interesting idea in another thread was a shortened season should mean a shortening of the Pineda suspension. That would make sense to me, adjusting the percentage of games/time missed, otherwise he would actually be further penalized by missing a greater portion of the season than was initially laid down/intended in his punishment.

But he wasn't suspended for a portion of the season. He was suspended for a number of games.

There is no way, IMO, that they'll allow suspended games to count towards his suspension.

[FritzDahmus]

 

Could not have said it better myself. 

 

[DocBauer]

But he wasn't suspended for a portion of the season. He was suspended for a number of games.

There is no way, IMO, that they'll allow suspended games to count towards his suspension.

No, what I am saying is he was suspended a number of games. That number is also based on a 162 game format. Meaning his suspension also equals ascertain number of days, weeks, etc, or percentile of the season. When and if the season is shortened, technically, he is missing more games in the season, or a higher percentile of the season missed than the original punishment was intended for. Therefore, it could be argued he is technically being punished more than was originally decreed.

 

There is a form of reference...I forget who now...where a player was suspended a couple years ago but was also injured. His time on the IR counted towards his suspension days. Coincidental sure, but it does fly somewhat in the face of the intended punishment design.

 

It's a complicated issue, but I think the Twins would have a very valid arguement on a reduction to coincide with the length of the season and an appropriate percentage of games missed adjustment.

[Doctor Gast]

Well balanced article, How this could benefit the Twins, more time for Buxton, Gonzalaz & Hill (although there`s no rush for him) to get ready plus maybe could improve Romero & Thorp`s situation to make the team. Also our rotation doesn`t    have   the stamina to last the whole season meaning a reduced season the rotation will be less tired.

At the same time our nemesis CLE &NYY will also have more time to heal especially if it gets even more delayed

[LylesCrocodiles]

I disagree ewen. Buxtons defense is far better than any other player we have. He’s gold glove material. Maybe Donaldson can play at that level. And the ground Buxton covers has a trickle down effect for the corner outfielders ability to cover ground. Team ERA was more than a run higher with Buxton out. That’s a real stat that matters IMO

[Mr. Brooks]

No, what I am saying is he was suspended a number of games. That number is also based on a 162 game format. Meaning his suspension also equals ascertain number of days, weeks, etc, or percentile of the season. When and if the season is shortened, technically, he is missing more games in the season, or a higher percentile of the season missed than the original punishment was intended for. Therefore, it could be argued he is technically being punished more than was originally decreed.

 

There is a form of reference...I forget who now...where a player was suspended a couple years ago but was also injured. His time on the IR counted towards his suspension days. Coincidental sure, but it does fly somewhat in the face of the intended punishment design.

 

It's a complicated issue, but I think the Twins would have a very valid arguement on a reduction to coincide with the length of the season and an appropriate percentage of games missed adjustment.

If they give him credit for games that everyone is missing, then how is that fair to the players who didn't get caught cheating? How is that a punishment?

"Your punishment is to miss the same games that every player is missing." Huh?

 

I just can't disagree more.

[DocBauer]

If they give him credit for games that everyone is missing, then how is that fair to the players who didn't get caught cheating? How is that a punishment?

"Your punishment is to miss the same games that every player is missing." Huh?

 

I just can't disagree more.

No, Pineda does not receive credit for games missed that everyone else does. I'm stating there is precedent in regard to suspensions and how they are calculated. In the above reference, a ballplayer was suspended but couldn't have played anyway as he was injured. However, MLB didn't force him to become healthy and THEN begin his suspension. All this to mean there is, again, precedent in regard to the intent of the punishment.

 

But to be more clear, Pineda is supposed to be suspended roughly 30 more games. (I'm rounding) Over a 162 game season, that would mean he is to miss approximately 18% of the Twins season.

 

Now, the 2020 season is reduced by 1 month, approximately 20 games, and Pineda is still suspended for the same 30 days, that means he now must 21% of a now 142 game season. Which means he is arguably receiving additional punishment over and above the intended verdict.

 

How is that fair? Especially when we've seen an example of a player being allowed to "serve time" while on the IR?

 

Having Pineda's suspension reduced would seemingly be a small number of games unless the season is virtually halved. But then again, more time available to contribute is more time to contribute.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No, Pineda does not receive credit for games missed that everyone else does. I'm stating there is precedent in regard to suspensions and how they are calculated. In the above reference, a ballplayer was suspended but couldn't have played anyway as he was injured. However, MLB didn't force him to become healthy and THEN begin his suspension. All this to mean there is, again, precedent in regard to the intent of the punishment.

 

But to be more clear, Pineda is supposed to be suspended roughly 30 more games. (I'm rounding) Over a 162 game season, that would mean he is to miss approximately 18% of the Twins season.

 

Now, the 2020 season is reduced by 1 month, approximately 20 games, and Pineda is still suspended for the same 30 days, that means he now must 21% of a now 142 game season. Which means he is arguably receiving additional punishment over and above the intended verdict.

 

How is that fair? Especially when we've seen an example of a player being allowed to "serve time" while on the IR?

 

Having Pineda's suspension reduced would seemingly be a small number of games unless the season is virtually halved. But then again, more time available to contribute is more time to contribute.

in the strike shortened season of 95, the players didn’t get paid for the 18 games missed. Neither will the players get paid for missed games this year due to Covid19. Why should Pineda get even partial credit when the other players won’t get paid at all?

 

His suspension was 60 games with 39 games remaining, not 37% of a season with 24% remaining.

[gagu]

"His suspension was 60 games with 39 games remaining, not 37% of a season with 24% remaining."

 

And the 60 game suspension was also at least tangentially based on a 162 game season.

While a strict 39 games remaining stance seems more likely, I´m with Doc´s point that it´s an interesting argument.

[DocBauer]

in the strike shortened season of 95, the players didn’t get paid for the 18 games missed. Neither will the players get paid for missed games this year due to Covid19. Why should Pineda get even partial credit when the other players won’t get paid at all?

 

His suspension was 60 games with 39 games remaining, not 37% of a season with 24% remaining.

And that's all I'm saying.

 

NEVER said Pineda should get paid while being punished. Never said Pineda shouldn't be punished. Never said he should be credited for days all players are going to miss by a late start to the season, whether it be 20 days, 30 days, 40 days, etc.

 

I am simply stating the Twins may have an arguement to have his remaining suspension days whittled down to reflect a shorter season, and thus an equivalent percentage of games missed as if the season were a full 162 games.

 

His penalty, originally 80 games but reduced to mitigating factors, was based on a 162G season and spread out over 2019 and 2020. Fair. But once the dust settles and things eventually get going again, 2020 will not be a 162G season. The arguement is, therefore, his suspension should be reduced an equivalent amount of games to reflect the same % of games missed had both seasons been the traditional 162G length.

 

Just seems fair and logical to me. Especially considering it could be as little as a week worth of action.

[DocBauer]

in the strike shortened season of 95, the players didn’t get paid for the 18 games missed. Neither will the players get paid for missed games this year due to Covid19. Why should Pineda get even partial credit when the other players won’t get paid at all?

 

His suspension was 60 games with 39 games remaining, not 37% of a season with 24% remaining.

And I get that. But those days of suspension, as I just re-stated again above, lol, were based on days of a regular season or over 2 regular seasons in this case.

 

We are not going to have a regular season in 2020.

[Craig Arko]

So, if one believes this is true for Domingo German, it’s unlikely anyone’s suspension will be reduced to count the missed games. Including Pineda.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-to-delay-domingo-germans-return-to-yankees/

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And that's all I'm saying.

 

NEVER said Pineda should get paid while being punished. Never said Pineda shouldn't be punished. Never said he should be credited for days all players are going to miss by a late start to the season, whether it be 20 days, 30 days, 40 days, etc.

 

I am simply stating the Twins may have an arguement to have his remaining suspension days whittled down to reflect a shorter season, and thus an equivalent percentage of games missed as if the season were a full 162 games.

 

His penalty, originally 80 games but reduced to mitigating factors, was based on a 162G season and spread out over 2019 and 2020. Fair. But once the dust settles and things eventually get going again, 2020 will not be a 162G season. The arguement is, therefore, his suspension should be reduced an equivalent amount of games to reflect the same % of games missed had both seasons been the traditional 162G length.

 

Just seems fair and logical to me. Especially considering it could be as little as a week worth of action.

but it’s not based on 162 game season. If it were he wouldn’t have started his penalty immediately because there weren’t 162 games or even 60 games left of the season.

 

if the players union gets the players their game checks for missed games in 2020, then the missed games should count against Pineda’s suspension. Pineda shouldn’t have to pay the monetary penalty twice.

[DocBauer]

but it’s not based on 162 game season. If it were he wouldn’t have started his penalty immediately because there weren’t 162 games or even 60 games left of the season.

 

if the players union gets the players their game checks for missed games in 2020, then the missed games should count against Pineda’s suspension. Pineda shouldn’t have to pay the monetary penalty twice.

I'm sorry, don't get the confusion here. His penalty IS based on a 162 game season. The penalty for an abuse of any sort is a rounded off 80 games. Which is half a season. Not sure why MLB doesn't do 81G, maybe they just like a round number.

 

And agree nobody should have to pay the monetary price twice, so we may agree on that.

 

I just propose Pineda's penalty of games missed, without pay of course, should be based on the carryover to the second season, which will be abbreviated I'm sure. Again, I think we're saying the same thing monetarily.

 

And if the season, hopefully, is only 20 games short, any reduction in Pineda's penalty is but a few games. I just think it's something to examine, but the idea may already be running its course at this time.

[Dantes929]

 

in the strike shortened season of 95, the players didn’t get paid for the 18 games missed. Neither will the players get paid for missed games this year due to Covid19. Why should Pineda get even partial credit when the other players won’t get paid at all?

His suspension was 60 games with 39 games remaining, not 37% of a season with 24% remaining.

Do you know for sure that players don't get paid?   I can't find it anywhere and not getting paid for a strike is no semblance of proof that they don't get paid for Covid19.  Players get paid for being injured during Spring Training.   I would say this situation is way closer to that than a strike.   I also think it would be very reasonable for the suspension to be reduced, not game for game, but in proportion to the shortened season.  

[DocBauer]

So, if one believes this is true for Domingo German, it’s unlikely anyone’s suspension will be reduced to count the missed games. Including Pineda.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-to-delay-domingo-germans-return-to-yankees/

A great post and a different way to look at the issue.

 

While I absolutely do not want to play devil's advocate and compare suspensions, or the gravity of offenses and the such, the Yankees could have an argument as well.

 

Please understand everyone, I am not speaking of "early parole", if you will, nor advocating anything. I am simply posing a debatable question for the Twins and other franchises simply because we are in somewhat uncharted territory here. I advocate nothing. It's simply an exercise amongst the various situations being present with a shortened/interrupted season.

 

We could just as easily discuss how to balance a "fair" schedule for an abbreviated season. We could equally discuss how a 60 day IL affects a player and team. I'm just tossing out things to consider.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Do you know for sure that players don't get paid? I can't find it anywhere and not getting paid for a strike is no semblance of proof that they don't get paid for Covid19. Players get paid for being injured during Spring Training. I would say this situation is way closer to that than a strike. I also think it would be very reasonable for the suspension to be reduced, not game for game, but in proportion to the shortened season.

I dont know, it’s an assumption. I also saw in Trevor Bauer’s YouTube channel that the union is negotiating for the players to get paid.

 

A bit further down the thread, I advocated for the games to count if the players get paid for missed games.

[Doctor Gast]

Another upside of a delayed season is the Twins don`t have to play in the cold weather outside.