One Seemingly Small Adjustment from Byron Buxton Could Pay Off Big

[Matthew Trueblood]

Byron Buxton will always have swing-and-miss in his game, but he's shored up his vulnerability to whiffs over the last two years, especially in one key respect.Though Byron Buxton has had a long, uneven, complex development curve, it’s clear that he turned a new corner in 2019. After going back to the setup and swing mechanics he had trusted in high school late in the 2018 season, Buxton blossomed into the kind of multi-dimensional, dangerous hitter on which Twins fans had dreamed for years. He not only set a new career high in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but did so by wide margins, while slashing his strikeout rate. There were many adjustments and improvements involved, but the one that might have been most important seems trivial at first: he whiffed on many fewer fastballs.

 

Over the last five years, there have been 1,666 player-seasons in which a batter swung at least 250 times at fastballs. That’s an average of about 350 per season, and equates to a threshold of coming to bat about 200 times. Buxton has only surpassed that threshold three times, because of his prolonged slumps and (more importantly) many injuries. Here are his whiff rates when swinging at fastballs in those three campaigns, along with their rankings on the list of 1,666.

 

Download attachment: tempsnip.png

 

This could seem like a small change, especially if one studies the list of all those player-seasons. Ronald Acuña, Jr., who was a contender for the NL MVP last season, whiffed as much during that season as Buxton did in 2017. Giancarlo Stanton’s 2017 MVP season saw a similar whiff rate on heat as Buxton had in those two troubled seasons. Meanwhile, the names and seasons around Buxton’s 2019 entry on the list are less inspiring.

 

Buxton, however, isn’t a normal hitter, and he can’t be defined, nor his performance predicted, by analogy. He’s a unique athlete. Though he had a career-low ground-ball rate last season, he posted a .314 BABIP and a .348 batting average on contact (BACON). He did even better than that on contact in 2016 and 2017, but of course, he struck out so much in each season that his production was hampered. Buxton shouldn’t be focused on hitting ground balls, but to the extent that he can get on plane with an incoming pitch and increase his contact rate, he should always do so. His speed and his strength make him a potentially lethal hitter, if he does so.

 

The change itself might feel small, too, but in the context of pitchers and teams trying to gameplan against Buxton, it’s not. Going from the 12th to the 28th percentile in vulnerability to whiffing on fastballs, while continuing to hit the ball hard when one makes contact, represents the elimination of a catastrophic weakness. Buxton might never have an average contact rate on fastballs, but if he’s merely below-average, rather than dwelling near the very bottom of the league, then he’s a tough at-bat and a tough out.

 

It shouldn’t be controversial to say this: Buxton is the most important player on the 2020 Twins. When he’s healthy and functioning at full capacity, he turns the Twins into a juggernaut, closing the only prospective hole in their lineup and fundamentally transforming them from a subpar defensive team to one that catches almost everything in the air. When he’s absent or compromised, the team is still good, but their flaws become much more apparent. If Buxton can continue to hammer fastballs while minimizing his empty swings against them, he adds a dynamism to their lineup that is somewhat wanting otherwise.

 

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[operation mindcrime]

A much larger adjustment would be to stop crashing into everything!

[Aerodeliria]

I' really not saying this to irritate anyone but, every argument extolling the virtues of Buxton inevitably includes (in one way or another) this caveat, "If Buxton can stay healthy..." I (really do) hope I'm wrong, but the only fastballs he may be hammering will be on Play Station 4...('Wait, do players get injured in the latest version of RBI Baseball 19? I'm might have to change my statement.')

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Very good OP! Agreed, Buxton is critical for this 2020 season. If he could get into the first standard of deviation on fastball whiff rate, that would be icing on the cake!

[insagt1]

Precisely. There is no way to know just how good the Twins could be if Buxton could actually play a full season. He is so injury prone you walk on eggshells everytime he chases a fly ball. But....if he was to stay healthy.....would be a lot of fun to watch.

[BodieInSD]

 

A much larger adjustment would be to stop crashing into everything!

IF...

Buxton himself brings two things the Twins are almost devoid of without him.  ELITE defense (don't know that Donaldson is quite at that level at 3B - very good yes, but...) and a legitimate base stealing threat. 

Imagine Kepler getting a steady diet of fastballs with Buxton on base!

[Trov]

I have believed for a long time, Buxton's biggest problem is his willingness to try something different.  He keeps making changes to swing, leg kick, approach, ect. that he just cannot stick with something and make small adjustments.  What also did not help is the change in organization philosophy, and his endless injuries.   

[jkcarew]

Certainly put a dent into the K-rate last year. I think a lot of that was being more aggressive earlier in the count (lowest Pit/PA of his career). But, it's encouraging that the data also suggests materially less swing-and-miss. I see the BABiP likely coming around a bit as well which is also encouraging. The power really hasn't popped yet, either...which could happen. On the other side, the 2019 XBH% and X/H% (ridiculous doubles rate) are unsustainable over a larger sample...and we all hope we start seeing larger samples.

[by jiminy]

Thank you for this! I thought his weakness was outside breaking balls! I had no idea his numbers were that bad against fastballs. Moving up to bottom third from bottom eighth seems like it has a realistic chance of being sustainable. In fact he could keep improving!

 

If they can convince him there is nothing heroic about intentionally injuring yourself he could still reach his potential. If he's too stubborn to stop running into wall and face planting into the turf, trade him for pitching while he's still worth something. But if he understands he is letting down his teammates by gambling with his health, and his first responsibility is to protect his body, he could lead this team to greatness.