Can College Pitching Prospects Lead the Minnesota Twins to a Cleveland-esque Rotation?

[Patrick Wozniak]

Quick…what do Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and Adam Plutko have in common? Yes, they all pitched for Cleveland last season. But more relevant to today’s article is the fact that they are all college arms who were drafted by, acquired, or pitched for the Tribe during Derrek Falvey’s time in Cleveland.Cleveland is renowned for their ability to continually churn out high-quality starting pitching and the majority of their success stories have been college pitchers, except Carlos Carrasco. Falvey’s known as an expert in the area of pitcher development and he undoubtably played a big role in Cleveland’s success in that area. The question remains as to what it means for the Minnesota Twins?

 

A quick glance at Twins Daily’s top prospect list will show that the Twins top three pitching prospects are not college pitchers. Number five prospect, Jordan Balazovic, was drafted as a high schooler out of Canada by the previous regime, while Jhoan Duran (#6), who was acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade, was an international signing and Blayne Enlow (#10) was a high schooler picked by Falvey and company. However, if we look beyond the trio, some intriguing collagen arms begin to emerge.

 

Let’s start with Matt Canterino. The 6’2” 222 lb. righty was the Twins second-round pick in the 2019 draft. He only pitched 25 innings between rookie ball and Cedar Rapids due to his heavy workload coming out of Rice University, but as expected, he pitched very well. Canterino sits in the low 90s, topping out at around 95, and possesses two good breaking pitches, a slider and curve, along with a changeup. He brings plenty of funk in his delivery and has the potential to be a fast riser. If all goes well he could end up being a mid-rotation starter, and his fastball/slider combo gives him a solid floor as a reliever. He ranks as Twins Daily’s #15 prospect, while FanGraphs has him at #13 and MLB.com at #11. Here’s a closer look at Canterino from Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming:

 

 

A slight jump down on the Twins Daily prospect list and we find another intriguing 22-year-old collegian righty in Cole Sands, who comes in at #19 (FanGraphs #15, mlb.com #19). Sands was a fifth-round pick in 2018 (signed over-slot for 600K) but didn’t debut until last year due to some injuries. He dealt with a blister issue and a calf strain in 2019 but no arm injuries and had great results. Over three levels and 18 starts (culminating in one final AA start) Sands pitched 91.1 innings to a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 108 strikeouts and just 19 walks. Cole has a three-pitch mix featuring a tailing fastball that can reach the mid-90s along with a good curveball and changeup, which all have the potential to be above-average pitches. Like Canterino in 2019, Sands was the first pitcher selected by Minnesota in the 2018 draft.

 

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[howieramone2]

Great article!

[Shaitan]

I don't disagree with any of the premise here. It's one of the reasons I like this front office.

 

But I'm also fascinated about how franchises continue to change. We praise Cleveland now (and we should) for their pitcher development in the 2010s. But we're also dismissing them as a competitor for 2020 -- so what happened?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't disagree with any of the premise here. It's one of the reasons I like this front office.

 

But I'm also fascinated about how franchises continue to change. We praise Cleveland now (and we should) for their pitcher development in the 2010s. But we're also dismissing them as a competitor for 2020 -- so what happened?

 

Is the theory of trusting college pitchers more than high school pitchers a new thing? It's certainly what the Ryan-led teams did. High School hitters. College pitchers. 

 

And... we definitely should not be dismissing Cleveland as a competitor in 2020.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Great article!

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

I don't disagree with any of the premise here. It's one of the reasons I like this front office.

 

But I'm also fascinated about how franchises continue to change. We praise Cleveland now (and we should) for their pitcher development in the 2010s. But we're also dismissing them as a competitor for 2020 -- so what happened?

I'm definitely not counting Cleveland out, though I think the Twins have a big edge offensively. Cleveland's ability to continually churn out quality pitching is what keeps them relevant (and allows them to trade away guys like Bauer and Kluber). They do have some holes in their lineup, but having Lindor and Ramirez certainly helps.

[Jimv]

 

I'm definitely not counting Cleveland out, though I think the Twins have a big edge offensively. Cleveland's ability to continually churn out quality pitching is what keeps them relevant (and allows them to trade away guys like Bauer and Kluber). They do have some holes in their lineup, but having Lindor and Ramirez certainly helps.

 

Cleveland has also had some really bad luck with injuries to pitchers.  (The Twins had a stretch of really bad luck too, but it didn't get quite the notice because it happened while our really promising pitchers were in the minors, while Cleveland's pitchers got hurt after they made the majors.)  In the end, though, my sense is that on the whole, they weren't as successful developing hitters.

[DocBauer]

Ober?

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks for the info. I`m really keeping my eye on Vallimont seems like he has everything working for him. This draft they have a lot of great college prospects, was hoping to have more draft picks to take advantage of it. W/ college draftees they pass through the lower levels very quickly. We need some young pitchers thru the international drafts to help the lower levels stocked w/ pitchers.

Yes, my hope is for us to imitate Cleveland in evaluating & developing aces to have a steady influx in our rotation. We`ve been always known for bats

[Rosterman]

College pitchers come into the system older, but still must make the different jumps. And because you don't talk about them for an additional couple of years as they progress, you either see them happen, now, of they flame-out in the competitive field of prospects. The bigger question is: have the Twins ahd more success with prospect pitchers out of high school or college in the past.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Very interesting perspective - thanks for this

[4twinsJA]

College pitchers little more a known quality, older, more developed physically. Already competd at higher level than high school, easier to project future proformance compared to high school pitchers. I like how Twins have added prospects through draft and trades. Twins have multiple quality pitchers working their way up, excited about future.

[rdehring]

Will second Doc's comment...Ober.  Although drafted before the new group got here, wasn't Tyler Wells also a college pitcher.  Was pitching as well as anyone before missing all last year.

 

Haven't researched this, but weren't most of the Cleveland starting pitchers drafted high, but not necessarily the first round?

[DocBauer]

Will second Doc's comment...Ober. Although drafted before the new group got here, wasn't Tyler Wells also a college pitcher. Was pitching as well as anyone before missing all last year.

 

Haven't researched this, but weren't most of the Cleveland starting pitchers drafted high, but not necessarily the first round?

Sure someone smarter than me, or more willing to dig deep, could correct me but I'm thinking the highest of their recent core was the 4th or 5th round.

 

Bauer being the exception, of course, but they didn't draft him

[h2oface]

It would be nice to see a rotation as described. Still waiting for the reality..... I hope it happens sooner than later or never.

[Darius]

The level at which the Indians have churned out pitchers seems unprecedented. Has there been an equivalent in baseball history?

 

From Kluber, Clevinger, Beiber, Bauer...even going back to Salazar and Carrasco who have derailed by injuries/illness....it’s pretty unreal.

 

I look at the Twins, for example. They’ve had two guys on that level since the 90s (Santana and Berrios...could count a few months of Liriano for a third). The Indians had 4-5 guys of that caliber in the same rotation. One leaves, they replace him with another one. Remarkable.

 

There have been better rotations, but not all developed from the same farm system.

 

Although they clearly have a knack of developing talent, I have to think there is a ton of luck involved as well. Even with the greatest development staff on the planet, the odds of all of these guys making it through to the majors healthy has got to be microscopic. At some point, the pipeline will run dry. Everyone has to eventually supplement their pitching staff from the outside. Setting a goal of never having to do that is unrealistic.

[bobs]

We get so much of the same stuff over and over from most media outlets...can Buxton stay healthy?  Can Cruz do it again at 40?  Does Rosario stay or go?  Starting pitching.....  

Articles like this are why I love TwinsDaily and check in a couple times a day to see what they're offering.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Will second Doc's comment...Ober.  Although drafted before the new group got here, wasn't Tyler Wells also a college pitcher.  Was pitching as well as anyone before missing all last year.

 

Haven't researched this, but weren't most of the Cleveland starting pitchers drafted high, but not necessarily the first round?

Here's the draft positions of the guys I listed:

Bieber- 4th round, Clevinger- 4th round (Angels), Bauer- 1st, 3rd overall (Arizona), Kluber- 4th round (San Diego), Civale- 3rd round, Pleasac- 12th round, Plutko- 11th round (though originally drafted by Houston in the 6th round but did not sign).

 

So, Canterino was drafted ahead of everybody but Bauer while Sands and Valimont went in the 5th (Sands signed over slot) and Winder in the 7th. 

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

We get so much of the same stuff over and over from most media outlets...can Buxton stay healthy?  Can Cruz do it again at 40?  Does Rosario stay or go?  Starting pitching.....  

Articles like this are why I love TwinsDaily and check in a couple times a day to see what they're offering.

Thanks! I love writing about this kind of stuff and am always grateful (and pleasantly surprised) when others enjoy reading it. Thanks again!

[PDX Twin]

If a club like the Twins (or Cleveland) is not going to be able to retain top stars beyond 6 years, it makes sense to grab guys who already have the extra years of development in college.

 

If we draft a collegian and he joins at 22, he makes the majors at maybe 26 and is a free-agent at 32. (Gibson followed roughly this model.) We've gotten at least the early part of his best years.

 

Contrast with Berrios who makes the majors at 22 and potentially leaves at 28 with some of his best years ahead of him (in another shirt).

[twins_89]

The Twins really went all in on college pitchers in the last draft. In the first 25 rounds I believe we selected 17 college pitchers (in 26 picks). There must be some analysis that shows that after the top 150 or so picks college arms are an undervalued commodity. I'll be curious to see how many of these guys turn into real prospects.

[SteelDodo]

Love this topic. Thanks for writing! I think the whole college vs. HS players, and other drafting strategies (hitters early, etc.) is my favorite type of baseball article to read.

[rdehring]

 

Here's the draft positions of the guys I listed:

Bieber- 4th round, Clevinger- 4th round (Angels), Bauer- 1st, 3rd overall (Arizona), Kluber- 4th round (San Diego), Civale- 3rd round, Pleasac- 12th round, Plutko- 11th round (though originally drafted by Houston in the 6th round but did not sign).

 

So, Canterino was drafted ahead of everybody but Bauer while Sands and Valimont went in the 5th (Sands signed over slot) and Winder in the 7th. 

Thanks for digging that up.

 

So the key is to get the right pitchers in say the first ten rounds, then have a top development program.  Would sure love to see the Twins be able to reload every few years with Starter X, Y, and Z moving on.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

The level at which the Indians have churned out pitchers seems unprecedented. Has there been an equivalent in baseball history?



 

How about the 1954 Cleveland Indians? Early Wynn, Mike Garcia, Bob Lemon, Art Houtteman and Bob Feller were the starters and Hal Newhouser, Don Mossi and Ray Narleski were the main relievers.

[rdehring]

 

How about the 1954 Cleveland Indians? Early Wynn, Mike Garcia, Bob Lemon, Art Houtteman and Bob Feller were the starters and Hal Newhouser, Don Mossi and Ray Narleski were the main relievers.

You had to remind me of that tarheeltwinsfan?

 

That was a great staff.  Another was Baltimore when they had Palmer, Cuellar and a couple other great starters.  

 

But what your comment reminded me of was morning back in the late '50s, I had to opportunity to go out goose hunting with Bob Feller.  I was 12 or 13 and he came out to our Wisconsin farm with a couple guys from Milwaukee who rented our marsh for hunting.  Signed a ball with comments on it about our morning.  Sometime while in college, my Mom tossed it along with all the other 'junk' I had at home.  Often wondered what that would be worth in today's market. 

[howieramone2]

Never is a long time. My guess is no later than 2023, possibly 2022, most of our starting pitching needs will be taken care of internally, just as we have relievers. It should be noted, most teams won't even try.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

You had to remind me of that tarheeltwinsfan?

 

That was a great staff.  Another was Baltimore when they had Palmer, Cuellar and a couple other great starters.  

 

But what your comment reminded me of was morning back in the late '50s, I had to opportunity to go out goose hunting with Bob Feller.  I was 12 or 13 and he came out to our Wisconsin farm with a couple guys from Milwaukee who rented our marsh for hunting.  Signed a ball with comments on it about our morning.  Sometime while in college, my Mom tossed it along with all the other 'junk' I had at home.  Often wondered what that would be worth in today's market. 

 

You had to remind me of that tarheeltwinsfan?

 

That was a great staff.  Another was Baltimore when they had Palmer, Cuellar and a couple other great starters.  

 

But what your comment reminded me of was morning back in the late '50s, I had to opportunity to go out goose hunting with Bob Feller.  I was 12 or 13 and he came out to our Wisconsin farm with a couple guys from Milwaukee who rented our marsh for hunting.  Signed a ball with comments on it about our morning.  Sometime while in college, my Mom tossed it along with all the other 'junk' I had at home.  Often wondered what that would be worth in today's market. 

 

I'd trade the signed baseball for the time actually spent with Rapid Robert Feller. Wow. What a thrill that was for you. I remember pitching baseball in the back yard with a guy from my hometown named Gair Allie, who was on the Pirates for a year or two. Huge thrill. (But I understand that you would still like to have the baseball signed by Bob Feller. Me too.)