Is Luis Arraez Really Just Ben Revere?

[Thrylos]

Really?

 

Luis Arraez has a career (93 games) .334/ .399/ .439 line with an 123 OPS+

 

Ben Revere never had 93 games with anything close.  His career line is .284/.319/.343 with 83 OPS+

 

And 7 HRs in a total of 857 games.  Arraez has 4 in those 93.

 

They both made the majors at 22.  Arraez hit that, Revere hit .179/ .233 /.179

 

Not.even.close.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why does every player have to have a comp? Who is the comp of 39 year old Cruz? The guy is a hitting fool and I don't care if he never hits more than 5 HR in a season. If he continues to master the zone, he will be north of .300BA for the foreseeable future. He works pitchers deep and waits for his pitch, not many do that at his age. Give me 9 of him over 9 guys striking out 180 times a year. It isn't sexy, but getting on base is effective

Comps are a nice way to relate to a player and put some context to their projections.

 

Oh and Cruz comps to Joe Adcock and Roy Sievers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cruzne02.shtml

[jorgenswest]

Danny Santana had an OPS+ of 130 and some data behind it to make us wonder whether he would repeat in year 2.

 

Arraez had a low hard hit rate and exit velocity. Those two numbers are similar to Revere. Is it at least worth wondering about?

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I get and appreciate the gist of the article - Arraez is being banked on as too much of a sure thing in Twins Territory - it's missing more than just the launch angle and barrel stuff (though those are appreciated as well).

 

Revere striking out more than Arraez given the decade of difference between their introductions is pretty significant. That doesn't mean Arraez strikes out just a bit less than Revere, that means adjusted for era, he strikes out quite a bit less.

 

While it was mentioned somewhat, Revere not walking *at all* is symptomatic of a lot more than just OBP... it means he didn't recognize pitches, and not recognizing pitches or the strike zone directly leads to bad contact (or missing entirely).

 

Arraez and Revere just aren't good comps, really.

 

But the general idea that we shouldn't count on Arraez being a competent starter, that I can agree with. I think he'll probably do okay but I'm not banking on it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why does every player have to have a comp? Who is the comp of 39 year old Cruz?

Edgar Martinez? Frank Thomas?

 

Late 30s DHs who dropped off a cliff at or around 40 aren't that hard to come by but it's a list of VERY good players.

[jkcarew]

 

Should we ignore the 4th percentile hard hit rate or 19th percentile exit velocity? I don’t think it is wise to jump to only lack of home runs from there. Are there any other players who have consistently been better than league average hitters at those ranks? I don’t know the answer to that question but it can’t be many.

It will be interesting to see how teams pitch and defend Arraez differently this year and then how he adjusts.

Interesting question, and I don't know either. But, I think the rankings make it look worse than it really is when I think of this in historical terms. In other words, if I close my eyes and plunk the 1970's versions of Rod Carew or Pete Rose into 2019...where do I think they'd rank in these types of batted-ball stats...with the way guys swing now...taking (or whiffing) on any pitch that can't be pulled/launched? I'm almost positive they'd rank shockingly low. But, do I think they'd put up OPS's north of .800 (AL league average last year was 762). Yes, they would. Even in their 'lesser' seasons...seasons where their HR totals didn't get to double-digits...they would be able to do that. Just by consistently hitting the ball all over the inside of the ball park, and being willing to take walks when they are there to be taken.

 

It's just that in the stat-cast era, guys like Arraez simply aren't arriving in the major leagues. I don't think he needs to be as good as Carew was at this (and he won't be) to still sustain something that is above average. But we'll see. Honestly...he's like a science experiment.

 

In any regard, I agree the sample is still small and that tough adjustments are headed his way now that he's on the radar.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting question, and I don't know either. But, I think the rankings make it look worse than it really is when I think of this in historical terms. In other words, if I close my eyes and plunk Rod Carew or Pete Rose into 2019...where do I think they'd rank in these types of batted-ball stats...with the way guys swing now...taking (or whiffing) on any pitch that can't be pulled/launched? I'm almost positive they'd rank pretty low. But, do I think they'd put up OPS's north of .800 (AL league average last year was 762). Yes, they would....even in one of their 'lesser' seasons, they would be able to do that. Just by consistently hitting the ball all over the inside of the ball park, and being willing to take walks when they are there to be taken.

 

It's just that in the stat-cast era, guys like Arraez simply aren't arriving in the major leagues. I don't think he needs to be as good as Carew was at this (and he won't be) to still sustain something that is above average. But we'll see. Honestly...he's like a science experiment.

 

In any regard, I agree the sample is still small and that tough adjustments are headed his way now that he's on the radar.

You're really misinterpreting what StatCast tries to tell us if you think guys who hit the ball and hit it hard (but maybe not enough to fence it) aren't getting a shot at the big leagues.

 

The thing is that guys like Revere (not Arraez) don't make the big leagues nowadays because of their launch angle or, more likely, they have it fixed before they hit even hit MLB and are therefore successful.

 

StatCast doesn't hate these guys, it hates bad contact and bad launch angle because defenses are so attuned to groundball contact nowadays.

[jkcarew]

 

You're really misinterpreting what StatCast tries to tell us if you think guys who hit the ball and hit it hard (but maybe not enough to fence it) aren't getting a shot at the big leagues.

 

The thing is that guys like Revere (not Arraez) don't make the big leagues nowadays because of their launch angle or, more likely, they have it fixed before they hit even hit MLB and are therefore successful.

 

StatCast doesn't hate these guys, it hates bad contact and bad launch angle because defenses are so attuned to groundball contact nowadays.

That's not what I'm saying. At all. What I'm saying is that the predominant modern approach is to pull (and launch)...and to hit the ball hard...at all costs. Even at the cost of very low batting averages and high strike out totals. That has nothing to do with StatCast..it's sybermetrics...I was just using the 'Statcast era' as a historical marker of time/era. Anyway, the result is that there are very few players getting to the major leagues (based on the way players are developed) who have the skill set to consistently put all types of pitches in all areas of the strike zone in play...and in play to all fields. It's a skill that doesn't rely as much on exit velocity and 'hard hit' pct to still provide value. Arraez is a throw back in that regard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's not what I'm saying. At all. What I'm saying is that the predominant modern approach is to pull (and launch)...and to hit the ball hard...at all costs. Even at the cost of very low batting averages and high strike out totals. That has nothing to do with StatCast..it's sybermetrics...I was just using the 'Statcast era' as a historical marker of time/era. Anyway, the result is that there are very few players getting to the major leagues (based on the way players are developed) who have the skill set to consistently put all types of pitches in all areas of the strike zone in play...and in play to all fields. It's a skill that doesn't rely as much on exit velocity and 'hard hit' pct to still provide value. Arraez is a throw back in that regard.

Well... I guess? But the thing is that Arraez actually hits the ball hard, which is a pretty big indicator of hitting well. 

 

And notice the Twins, one of the more advanced front offices nowadays, didn't try to change him at all and had him jump the line over several players at a very young age. They easily could have called up a few other players but chose Luis over all of them.

[Werbellik]

And he is a heckuva good guy also. My son took his one month old son to the winter caravan, or whatever it's now called,Jan 20 in Fargo. Arraez talked to, signed objects,and took pictures with them all the while with a huge smile and sincere demeanor. My son says he is a good humanbeing.

[ewen21]

I take issue with the title.  I could not get past it and needed to post my 100% disagreement with the mention of these two names together. This is not a good way to start a discussion about Luis Arraez.  He had a .828 OPS last year, Ben Revere had a .661 OPS.  TO compare the two is call Arraez toothless after a single half season where he played brilliantly.  He also mananged to hit 4 home runs and Revere needed over 2,000 at bats to get there.

 

I will read the article and then see if it's even worth another response.  Sorry, Ted....not sure how or why you decided this should be the launching off point for a discussion.

[Nine of twelve]

Ben Revere hit .306 over the course of three seasons, 2013-2015. Not bad, but I've heard it said that he was possibly the worst .306 hitter in the history of baseball. He had a very low percentage of extra base hits and a very low total of bases on balls. True, his speed could turn a number of singles and walks into effective doubles with a stolen base, but strictly in terms of batting skill his stats reveal that he was a slap hitter at best. There's no doubt in my mind that Arraez will be a much, much better hitter than Revere.

Defensively, there's never been anyone much better than Revere at catching fly balls but his pop gun arm was a huge drawback. Regarding a comparison to Arraez, it's apples and oranges. Will Arraez be a better infielder than Revere was an outfielder? Probably.

[ewen21]

 

Ben Revere hit .306 over the course of three seasons, 2013-2015. Not bad, but I've heard it said that he was possibly the worst .306 hitter in the history of baseball. He had a very low percentage of extra base hits and a very low total of bases on balls. True, his speed could turn a number of singles and walks into effective doubles with a stolen base, but strictly in terms of batting skill his stats reveal that he was a slap hitter at best. There's no doubt in my mind that Arraez will be a much, much better hitter than Revere.

Defensively, there's never been anyone much better than Revere at catching fly balls but his pop gun arm was a huge drawback. Regarding a comparison to Arraez, it's apples and oranges. Will Arraez be a better infielder than Revere was an outfielder? Probably.

Ben Revere's goofiness might best embody what I couldn't take about the early 2010s Twins teams.  Somehow people found his smile charming.  I found it to be thoroughly annoying

[ewen21]

 

You can get away with a light hitting player like Revere or Arraez 

Arraez is not "light hitting"

 

One who hits .334 with a 123 OPS+ should not deserve such a designation as you've assigned.

[highlander]

Anybody that is hitting over .300 is NOT light hitting. Arraez does not hit for power, but is nowhere near the Mendoza line. Luis is a player that seconds into the batter's box and challenges a pitcher to pitch. This is not the definition of a light hitter. The fella can grind 12 pitches in a single (pun intended) at bat.