Will Twins Prospects Continue to Step up and Shine in 2020?

[Patrick Wozniak]

Last week I wrote about the admittedly farfetched possibility of prospects Gilberto Celestino or Royce Lewis filling in for an injured Byron Buxton. The idea was that these two prospects give the Twins the best chance of replacing Buxton’s defense while their offense limitations would be covered by the rest of the lineup. That got me to thinking about what we can realistically expect from current prospects, should they get the call.One way to do that would be to look at projections. One of the nice thing about ZiPS projections is that it projects how prospects would play if they were in the majors. With that said, here are the projections for some of Minnesota’s top prospects.

 

2020 ZiPS projections:

 

Download attachment: Prospect ZiPS 2020 pic.png

 

You’ll notice that none of the bats project to be above average and only Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers are projected as better than replacement level players (Nick Gordon also projects for 0.6 WAR). It makes sense for a projection system to be rather conservative when projecting prospects, as jumping to the big leagues is obviously difficult, and we’ve seen top prospects like Byron Buxton struggle initially upon being called up. However, across MLB we’re seeing more and more young prospects come up and shine. Since Mike Trout and Bryce Harper premiered we’ve seen Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette (to name just a few) come up and shine from the get go. It’s not hard to imagine an advanced bat like Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach succeeding immediately at the MLB level.

 

The young stars I just listed are phenomenal talents, but another reason for their instantaneous success undoubtedably has to do with improving player development and use of technology. Young players are better prepared than ever for the challenges MLB players face. Since taking over the reins, the new Twins regime has put a huge emphasis on player development, and if we look at some of the prospects who appeared with Minnesota last season, the results point to success.

 

On offense, Luis Arraez is really the only prospect who had enough of a sample size to consider (though LaMonte Wade Jr. held his own in his limited time with the Twins). Arraez’s rookie campaign was obviously a massive success as is evident if we look at his actual results compared to his 2019 ZiPS projections.

 

Download attachment: Prospect ZiPS Arraez chart pic.png

 

The fact that nearly no one saw Arraez in 2019 would point to opportunity for the prospects listed above. Minnesota has a stacked lineup with good backups, so opportunities should be limited (yes, I am knocking on wood as I type this), but it wouldn’t be all that shocking if at least one of the listed prospects is called upon sometime this year.

 

In 2019, Arraez wasn’t the only Twins minor leaguer to get called up and look the part of a big-leaguer. The Twins also had several pitchers who fit the narrative:

 

Download attachment: Prospects ZiPS pitcher chart pic.png

 

Of all the pitchers and all the categories, the only actual stat that underperformed the ZiPS projections was Lewis Thorpe’s ERA. Randy Dobnak was so off the radar that he wasn’t even included in the 2019 ZiPS projections! The individual samples are somewhat small, but taken as a whole the results are pretty impressive. Derrek Falvey was well renowned for his ability to develop pitching in his time with Cleveland and it looks like it’s starting to pay dividends for the Twins as well. Outside of Thorpe, there was little to no hype for this group, and the fact that all of them outperformed expectations and didn’t look at all fazed or overmatched on the big stage warrants acclaim not only for the players, but for the coaches and front office as well. The system is strong!

 

Minnesota did a great job of improving the pitching depth this offseason, and the five pitchers who are listed all add to that depth. The unheralded nature of last year’s group shows how difficult predicting who the future contributors will be (and their MLB roles), and the sheer amount of MLB-quality pitching depth should help to alleviate the necessity of reaching into the minor league coffers, but it’s reassuring to know a good system is in place. And if we want to throw a couple of names out there, ZiPS thinks Griffin Jax and Bailey Ober could be fringe fifth-starter types.

 

The Twins have broken the competitive window wide-open, but should some shattered glass fly off and pierce one of its stars, ‘tis good to know the replacements aren’t likely to be blinded by the bright lights. Rest assured, the organization’s ability for mixing in young talent greatly exceeds the author’s capacity in successfully mixing metaphors.

 

Who do you think has a chance to step up and shine if called upon in 2020? Please leave your comments below!

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[jimbo92107]

Two things stood out from the prospects today:

1. Brent Rooker's double off the wall...not the sight of it, but the sound. BANG, like a firecracker. That's the sound of a focused kinetic chain transferring max energy to that poor little baseball. That last bit of uncoiling wrist action is how Eddie Rosario gets his shocking power from an easy swing. Rooker is going to be a good power hitter in the majors. 

2. Edwar Colina's 100 mph fastball. Not the speed, but the smooth motion. Like Rooker's swing, Colina's heater is the result of a focused kinetic chain, in this case throwing a baseball with demon speed, yet not apparently a herculean effort. Colina's command was not as impressive, but he's certainly got the arm talent to cause some trouble for hitters. 

[rdehring]

I don't understand the ZIPS projections.  Kirilloff has better numbers than Jeffers at every category, yet Jeffers shows a 1.0 WAR and Kirilloff only a 0.3 WAR?

 

If any of these kids become 2020's version of Luis Arraez, it will be in part due to injuries and need at a specific position.  Impossible for us to even speculate when/where that will be.

 

Based on the little I have seen of spring training on tv, sure looks like Kirilloff is taking great at bats.  Should there be a need at DH, 1B or the corner outfield, can see either Rooker or Kirilloff getting the call.  Who may depend on when with Rooker getting the call should the need be early in the season.  Kirilloff may get the call as the season moves into late spring/summer.  Got a feeling that both are going to become very good major league players, with Kirilloff potentially being special.

[MangLitch]

 

I don't understand the ZIPS projections.  Kirilloff has better numbers than Jeffers at every category, yet Jeffers shows a 1.0 WAR and Kirilloff only a 0.3 WAR?

 

If any of these kids become 2020's version of Luis Arraez, it will be in part due to injuries and need at a specific position.  Impossible for us to even speculate when/where that will be.

 

Based on the little I have seen of spring training on tv, sure looks like Kirilloff is taking great at bats.  Should there be a need at DH, 1B or the corner outfield, can see either Rooker or Kirilloff getting the call.  Who may depend on when with Rooker getting the call should the need be early in the season.  Kirilloff may get the call as the season moves into late spring/summer.  Got a feeling that both are going to become very good major league players, with Kirilloff potentially being special.

 

I believe WAR is position based. So corner outfielders produce more at the plate on average than Catchers. Therefore, Kirilloff is closer to replacement level due to the higher production on the position. Could be wrong though. 

[Bickle19]

 

I don't understand the ZIPS projections.  Kirilloff has better numbers than Jeffers at every category, yet Jeffers shows a 1.0 WAR and Kirilloff only a 0.3 WAR?

 

If any of these kids become 2020's version of Luis Arraez, it will be in part due to injuries and need at a specific position.  Impossible for us to even speculate when/where that will be.

 

Based on the little I have seen of spring training on tv, sure looks like Kirilloff is taking great at bats.  Should there be a need at DH, 1B or the corner outfield, can see either Rooker or Kirilloff getting the call.  Who may depend on when with Rooker getting the call should the need be early in the season.  Kirilloff may get the call as the season moves into late spring/summer.  Got a feeling that both are going to become very good major league players, with Kirilloff potentially being special.

I'd assume it would be due to positional difference.

[rdehring]

So let me understand WAR.  If Kirilloff hits a home run with one guy on base, his team scores 2 runs.  If Jeffers hits a home run with one guy on base, his team gets what, 3 runs?  

 

Offensive performance is the same when at the plate, no matter where you play in the field...or not.  This type of manipulating data drives this old guy nuts.  

[Doctor Gast]

You name pretty much who`s on my radar. Kiriloff & Larnach are MLB ready but lacks slots even w/ injury. My hope is on Lewis, Celestino & Jeffers. Only one you didn`t name is Colina, he has an arm on him

[Lefty]

My guess is that good hitting catchers that play solid defense are more difficult to replace than a good hitting outfielder/1B.

[Mr. Brooks]

So let me understand WAR. If Kirilloff hits a home run with one guy on base, his team scores 2 runs. If Jeffers hits a home run with one guy on base, his team gets what, 3 runs?

 

Offensive performance is the same when at the plate, no matter where you play in the field...or not. This type of manipulating data drives this old guy nuts.

But WAR doesn't only measure offensive production.

If you are looking to compare offensive numbers to offensive numbers with no other context, then just look at those numbers only and don't look at WAR.

[Danchat]

So let me understand WAR. If Kirilloff hits a home run with one guy on base, his team scores 2 runs. If Jeffers hits a home run with one guy on base, his team gets what, 3 runs?

 

Offensive performance is the same when at the plate, no matter where you play in the field...or not. This type of manipulating data drives this old guy nuts.

It’s more about the concept of replacement level - Jeffers is more valuable because of the scarcity of competent hitting catchers. But it’s not the best way to compare two guys offensively who play different positions,

[howieramone2]

I think we should go back to using wins and rbi's. The new arithmetic is fine for entertainment value, but it never tells you what you want to know.

[chaderic20]

 

So let me understand WAR.  If Kirilloff hits a home run with one guy on base, his team scores 2 runs.  If Jeffers hits a home run with one guy on base, his team gets what, 3 runs?  

 

Offensive performance is the same when at the plate, no matter where you play in the field...or not.  This type of manipulating data drives this old guy nuts.  

The difference comes from the expected performance of a generic replacement level player at that position. Lets say a generic replacement catcher hits a weak grounder to second which turns into an inning ending double play, while a generic replacement corner outfielder hits a single up the middle which doesn't score the runner but doesn't cause any outs either. So even though Kirilloff and Jeffers did the same thing, hit a 2 run homerun, the difference between what they did and what the generic replacement level player would do is greater, therefore Jeffers has the higher WAR.

[BrianBuchanan]

 

I think we should go back to using wins and rbi's. The new arithmetic is fine for entertainment value, but it never tells you what you want to know.

 

*internal screaming*

[scottz]

 

I think we should go back to using wins and rbi's. The new arithmetic is fine for entertainment value, but it never tells you what you want to know.

I just noticed they actually still keep track of wins and RBIs, so that's good news.

[jimbo92107]

Man, this Twins organization could have the bestest kind of problem, a logjam of star-level talent. Could be a frustrating year for some of these guys, who on weaker teams would be starters right out of spring training. You could do a lot worse than having an outfield of Larnach, Rooker and Lewis, with Kirilloff at 1B, swapping with Rooker, and Celestino your 4th OF. All those guys can launch rockets, except maybe Celestino... don't know him, but he's fast.

Almost the same deal with pitchers, tho not quite as dense a jam. Great arms coming up, but a little further back. I wanna see Durhan Durhan, and I've got my eye on Ober. Meanwhile, you could stash Colina in the pen right now, get him joking with the vets, insert in low-leverage, ease him into tougher spots... ah, spring!

[etwink]

Honestly, I don’t know why people keep reacting to ZIPS projections for minor leaguers.  Everyone is flabbergasted about how they project our best guys to, basically, suck if they make it to the majors this year.....when literally ZIPS says this every year!

 

Everyone know that’s ZIPS is just a statistical tool, right?  Basically put, statistics assume that everyone will regress to their mean; which is is why every guy who has a breakout is expected to regress the next year....and every guy who had an off year (unless he’s old enough for the statistics to suggest natural age-related regression) will bounce back the next year.  I don’t know ZIPS’ algorithms, but I know stats.

 

Also stats doesn’t work well when there isn’t a lot of data (it generally can’t be trusted until there is a bit of history to play off), so the ZIPS folks must be using another method to “water down the numbers” from a guy’s minor league results to estimate how they will do upon reaching the majors.  I’m sure that they’ve compared the records of a ton of guys to do this.

 

The problem is that stats don’t know what to do when a guy like Arraez comes in right away and starts raking....so 2019 “came out of the blue”, despite his established hitting and OBP tools.  It just made assumptions that had been established for young guys with similar minor league numbers.  The same thing goes with the other young guys; the stats are just cookie-cutting them into the algorithm.  They will only be trusted once they have a few years in the majors to guide the stats.

 

The bottom line is that ZIPS, and other tools, are they are just a predictor; don’t panic and either throw out the numbers......or put too much stock in them.

[Eris]

Here is a link to WAR calculations. Catcher has the greatest positional increase in WAR at +9 and DH the largest decrease at -15 per 1350 innings. This is from baseball reference. FanGraphs is probably slightly different (I haven’t looked).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml

 

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

 

C: +9 runs

SS: +7 runs

2B: +3 runs

CF: +2.5 runs

3B: +2 runs

RF: -7 runs

LF: -7 runs

1B: -9.5 runs

DH: -15 runs

P: see Pitcher Positional Adjustment