Are the Minnesota Twins the Best Team in the American League?

[jkcarew]

 

So far I haven’t heard any speculations linking the Twins leadership to the cheating scandal. (Fingers crossed). Can’t say the same for NYY. If both Houston and NY hitters suffer a Marwin Gonzalez type regression, the Twins lineup could be far superior.

Marwin Gonzalez's OPS in 2019 was 3 points higher than it was in 2018.

[jkcarew]

Tell me again...what do we get for being the best team in the league in February?

 

I admit, it's nice to know that, even with reasonable regression from several pieces, you should still be in the hunt. But what we still need to hope for is that the favorable surprises outweigh the inevitable unfavorable surprises. If that happens, we're not just 'in a playoff hunt' like would have been the case...in like forever...instead, we'll have a real actual shot at something meaningful. Should be fun!

[cletus141]

Interesting that the Twins had 3 of the top 5 hitters with at least 350 PA in AB/HR in MLB in 2019.

• Garver
• Trout
• Cruz (#2 as a qualifier behind Trout)
• Yelich
• Sano

That's still A LOT of PA when considering that 502 is the qualifying amount.  70% of PA required is not really a small sample size. All 3 were better after the All-Star break too.

[Mr. Brooks]

Marwin Gonzalez's OPS in 2019 was 3 points higher than it was in 2018.

His OPS+ was 7% worse.

The offensive environment has to be considered when looking at just the raw numbers.

[KFEY93]

 

Yeah I know what you mean. Remember San Diego and Philly last year - two huge signings of Machado and Harper, plenty of hype surrounding both teams (especially Philly). Let's not forget how the Indians were also an across-the-board AL Central winner in just about every prediction model out there before 2019.

 

I've ran through the scenario in my mind. The Twins stumble, start 3-8 or something, and it turns out Cruz needs surgery and Donaldson's in an 0-24 slump. Guys start pushing. Sano and Buxton go into one of their infamous black holes at the plate. The league figures out how to pitch to Arraez, and Kepler's regressing. All of a sudden Astudillo and Adrianza are starting every game and LaMont Wade's playing in the OF every day for some reason.

 

The White Sox are hot, a year ahead of schedule. The Indians are back.

 

Here come the headlines: "Donaldson Unhappy in Minnesota", "Pineda needs surgery", "Twins baseball player arrested for playing Scrabble in a Cub Foods Parking Lot" and the house of cards just falls into shambles....

 

Then I wake up and realize it was all a bad dream....at least for now. I think this team will be good, but I also think it's very important to get off to a very good start and not play catch-up for too long in April.

So you say that all of those bad things can happen to the Twins and think that no bad things will happen to the White Sox or Indians either? They will be fine all year and have no injuries or slumps? That makes no sense. 

[jkcarew]

 

His OPS+ was 7% worse.
The offensive environment has to be considered when looking at just the raw numbers.

Not exactly a huge regression, though. Very similar to what everyone should have expected from Gonzalez. He had one outlier year...and it wasn't 2018.

[Drew]

 

I've ran through the scenario in my mind. The Twins stumble, start 3-8 or something, and it turns out Cruz needs surgery and Donaldson's in an 0-24 slump. Guys start pushing. Sano and Buxton go into one of their infamous black holes at the plate. The league figures out how to pitch to Arraez, and Kepler's regressing. All of a sudden Astudillo and Adrianza are starting every game and LaMont Wade's playing in the OF every day for some reason.

 

 

 

"Maybe my wife and I will have a good long life together" he said right after the wedding "Or maybe she will start cheating on me with my brother and my car will explode leaving me horribly scarred and I'll get fired from my job and my dog will leave me after finding a better family and all of my limbs will start to aggressively rot away."

 

You Minnesota Sportsfanned the HELL out of that man! It's not even March!

 

[Nick Nelson]

"Minnesota Sportsfan" as a verb is definitely entering my lexicon 

[TwinsFan50]

Until we win a 5 game playoff series, much less a single playoff game, I'll stay hopeful but not overly excited.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m on the optimism train too! Choo Choo!!!!

[DocBauer]

Ummm, last year the Twins bullpen had only .2 WAR less than the Yankees, with a better FIP and essentially identical xFIP.  The Twins bullpen had a better k-bb%, an identical WHIP, and a better SIERA.  The only real advantage the Yankees pen had was in giving up less hard contact, and getting more soft contact.

 

That being said, if you look at only the second half of the season (which more closely resembles what our current bullpen will hopefully look like), the Twins pen was better in WAR, FIP, xFip, k-bb%, WHIP, and SIERA, although the contact disparities remained.

 

I think it cannot be said with any amount of certainty that the Yankees bullpen is better, much less a huge advantage.  The pens seem likely to be a wash.

 

Kind of stole my thunder Cap, and that's OK. I think where the Yankees pen exceeds the Twins is in 2 areas:

 

1] They probably have more experience.

2] NAME RECOGNITION

 

Point #1 can now be argued, somewhat at least, as a non-factor with Romo and Clippard on board, plus the experience of Rogers and May over the past few season's.

 

Point #2 is easily arguable, reflecting some back to point #1 as well, because no matter how good any of our pen is/may be, everything from time to press...not results...would favor the NAMES in the Yankees pen.

 

Skipping to the rotation, you also made a valid point or two in regard to the Yankees vs the Twins. I am not denegrading the Yankees...or Astros, or anyone else...when I/we look at the rotation depth. And while there are certainly some things left to prove, I really don't knkw that anyone has the depth of talent/potential/numbers that the Twins do.

 

I was literally lost in thought yesterday on a 3 mile walk rolling the rotation options over and over in my head. Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey and one of Chacin, Thorpe, Dobnak or Smeltzer to begin the season. Let's just suppose Chacin is toast, which I kinda doubt, and the 5th spot belongs to one of the kids. Mid May, Pineda is now ready. Unless someone is hurt or just stinks, someone has to get bumped. July comes around...and I'm playing the long game here...and Hill is ready for the second half and hopefully the stretch run and playoffs. Now who gets bumped? And what about a couple of these young guys raking in Rochester for depth?

 

It's a long season for EVERYONE. While we may not, in February for sure, match up at the #1 spot, the depth is outstanding. Winning and getting there is half the battle. And from there, anything can happen. I think we match up pretty well.

 

Are we the best team? I don't know. But the pen and rotation are good and deep. The lineup is one of the best in all MLB. The fact that we are even debating as to whether we are the "best" team at this point is exciting as he'll!

 

Can't wait for the season to begin!

[akmanak]

Until the Twins actually beat the Yankees in a playoff game they are both the best of anything.

[Aerodeliria]

Even pointing to a team being the 'best' is a subjective notion at best (see what I did there). The best team lifts the trophy in October, but it doesn't mean they were necessarily the best at everything or even the most things. I thought that the Astros were the superior team when compared to the Nats on so many levels, but the Astros didn't lift the trophy.

[etwink]

Great write-up, Nick!

I think that there has been enough said so far that, anecdotally, people assumed that the Twins had a legit chance....but it’s always nice to get more data!

 

The only bit that I could argue with is that there seems like a bit of wishful thinking with respect to the Yankees pitching and Houston’s hitting w/o banging cans.

 

For the latter, all I can say is that I’m sure there will be an effect, but come on we’re not talking about a team filled with Nick Punto lookalikes who have never faced pressure!  Yes, we don’t know how good Jose Altuve (or whomever) will be but he’s not going to be replacement-level, and their pitching will still be great, minus Cole.

 

For the former, you can’t look at the Twins pitching and say that they’re going to really be great once Pineda and Hill are ready in May or June, but then say that the Yankees are screwed because they are looking at the same for Paxton and Severino (though I realise it could be much worse for Severino).  If everyone is healthy by the all star break, they will TORCH the AL East and be just fine for the playoffs.

 

I love that we can actually debate this, but I don’t think that we can be better than 3rd in the AL at this point in spring training.

[Darius]

With Severino going down, and the Astros losing Cole (and their ability to cheat) it’s close.

 

I’m still not sure the horses are there at the front end of the rotation to be considered the best, though.

 

I think a lot of people are getting a little cocky about the Twins this year, and it’s dangerous. There are some things that make me a little nervous:

 

The starting staff is deeper, but there’s reason for apprehension there. Berrios has a track record of wearing down. Odorizzi has a track record of inconsistency. Maeda hasn’t endured a heavy workload since he came from Japan. Hill may not get healthy. Bailey is a question mark. Pineda is one drug test away from being gone, and has had injury issues in the past. The young guys (Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe) could struggle.

 

On the offensive side, there are numerous some regression candidates (Garver, Arraez, Cruz, Polanco, and Kepler could all regress, some combination of them almost certainly will). There are guys with significant injury histories (Buxton, Sano). There are guys who are getting advanced in age (Donaldson, Cruz).

 

I think the potential to be great is there...but so is the potential for catastrophe (a little more than the Yanks/Astros). Maybe it’s just paranoia and lifetime of Minnesota sports wearing me down.