Twins drafting strategy: Old And Busted already?

[Mike Sixel]

It's not that they won't sign the expensive FA starters, it's that in many cases they're never even given the option to seriously negotiate. Wheeler and Bumgarner wouldn't even listen to offers. From what I understand, Strasburg wanted to stay with the Nats, and was only a free agent because he had an opt out, and was reasonably certain Washington would give him a better deal if they were forced to. Cole brought a sign to his press conference that pretty much confirmed where he wanted to sign (pun intended), aside from which the Twins were never going to offer 9 and $324M, nor were any other teams. That leaves Ryu as the only "expensive FA starter" left, and had we signed him, we surely wouldn't have signed Donaldson. Ryu has 7.3 WAR since 2015, Donaldson has 26.7.

 

And the three years before that?

[DocBauer]

After 3 drafts under the new management, I think it's tough to really make any firm conclusions in regard to any real tendancy or preference, much less if any process is broken or not.

 

There is always your BIG BOARD when drafting and the player rankings on it. Baseball is a little unique as it not only breaks down to 2 essential categories, pitcher and player, but also high school and college.

 

The Twins haven't drafted a college pitcher overly high the past 3 drafts? Perhaps they didn't really like the ones available or simply had someone else ranked considerably higher on their board.

 

And really, from a realistic stance, anybody they have drafted so far is really a year away at this point. I'd say we need at least 1 more year, if not 2, to see if there is a real draft strategy preference, and if what they are doing so far is working.

[dxpavelka]

 

All those names: Burdi, Jay, Cederoth, Reed, Curtiss, Stewart, Eades, Gonsalves, Slegers, Bard, Chargois, Summers, Williams, Boyd and Boer.

Drafted by previous regime......

[dxpavelka]

 

My main takeaway from the acquisition of Kenta Maeda is this: we apparently had no choice but to part with a pitching talent, despite our hopes of dealing from perceived strength in position players - outfielders in particular.

 

First, I need to check my assumptions: does anyone recall the front office actually coming out and saying that their drafting strategy is to pick position players when they have a very early draft choice? For me it's basically been inference: 2019 they chose a SS and LF before nabbing a pitcher with the 54th overall choice, in 2018 it was two OF and one C before a pitcher at #154, and in 2017 it was SS and OF before a pitcher at #37.

 

You can usually figure out how to spread the work among 13 really good arms on a MLB pitching staff, if you happen to be so lucky to have that many good ones. But with position players, you usually face major league roster limitations that keep you from making use of them if your luck happens to concentrate good performers at a given position, particularly when it's not up-the-middle skill.

 

So it seemed, to me at least, implicit that closely tied to the apparent drafting strategy was an intention to aggressively trade the eventual redundancy of good hitting prospects, for high-end pitching talent that might be missed out on in the draft. Keep the best, trade the rest.

 

I've been skeptical of this expectation, and now I think there is a direct refutation, in the form of this week's trade.

 

We didn't package, say, Rooker and Wallner for a rotation arm. We had to offer a young pitcher.

 

Drafting pitchers is inherently risky. But going for safer picks with position players doesn't look like it's going to pay off, with anything other than a larger pool of position players to feed the major league team with.

 

In the grand scheme of keeping a pipeline of talented pitching coming, it seems to me that the Twins' drafting strategy has a hole in it.

In the grand scheme of speculation about what the current regime's "draft strategy", it seems to me that the strategy of drawing said conclusions after a mere 3 drafts has a hole in it.
 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

And the three years before that?

 

I assume this is in reference to Ryu v Donaldson WAR--in the 2013-2014 seasons (Ryu missed all of 2015) Ryu had 7.8 WAR, Donlaldson in those two years had 13.

 

If the question was why Falvine didn't sign expensive FA starters in the offseasons prior to 2017, 2018, and 2019 it's because the Twins didn't have any expectations to compete in 2 of those 3 seasons.  In the one they did (going into the 2018 season on the heels of a surprise 2017 wild card appearance), the Twins attempted to sign Yu Darvish, and missed out--that's going to happen from time to time, and as best I'm aware, the Twins interest was sincere.  That being said, it's not like any of that pitching has been terribly effective over the past 2 years.  Below are MLBTR's starters, ranked, from that offseason, and their WAR over the past two years.

 

Darvish--2.9 WAR

Arrieta--3.0 WAR

Tanaka--5.7 WAR

Lynn--They did sign him

Cobb--0.9 WAR

Minor--6.7 WAR

Sabathia--2.6 WAR

Cashner--2.5 WAR

Chatwood--0.2 WAR

Garcia--0.0 WAR

Chacin--2.3 WAR

Vargas--2.0 WAR

Tillman--(0.4) WAR

Pineda--They did sign him

 

Other than Minor (who had scant little in his track record to suggest his success), and maybe Tanaka, would we really be happy if the Twins had agreed to sign starting pitching?

[Doctor Gast]

Great article & interesting insight! This trade has open my eyes too. As long as I can remember MN has never drafted a pitcher that ever amounted much of anything. Berrios is the only one that comes to mind. Is it because we are insecure in our pitchers scouting to draft a high draftee? It seems almost all pitchers come from other teams rejects or traded prospects. What it seems to me is that they put more value on positional players than pitchers. Through drafting positional player & tendency to horde them, we have glut of positional players which fills our 40 man roster. Many teams have approached us to trade pitchers for an OF but what holds it up is the other team say we are asking too much. Now after their stunt of obliging Graterol to become a BP reducing his value LA seeing an opportunity for a bargain steps in & offers a very dispensable pitcher Maeda. MN`s FO being pressured to fill in our pitching inadequacy so  instead of addressing our positional prospects glut we are willing to take their offer of our #1 pitching prospect ML ready, Graterol. After Boston tore down Graterol degrading his value even more making him bargain basement, Twins should have pulled out right there (knowing we`d never obtain true value for Graterol) & stopped that circus & if they wanted a trade demand a positional prospect instead but they didn`t. LA knowing full well & never questioned Graterol`s value  remain steady in keeping him in the deal. So in all that shows me that FO doesn`t give proper value for pitching. 

 1 more thing, it`s common knowledge that Baldelli went  to visit Sano & Buxton about potential problems. Has he ever went to visit Berrios to discuss some his issues? Did they ask Berrios about how he felt about this Graterol trade? Is it important? Yes, if we want to keep Berrios

[Thrylos]

Any drafting strategy that suggests to pick the best athlete over the biggest organizational need is faulty imho...

[howieramone2]

You can't predict future needs in baseball. That's why most teams take the best player available. The exception is some teams will only take the best college player.

[USAFChief]

 

Several days before the draft, by one account, Jay worked himself to #3. Also, it was hard to find anything that didn't project him as a starter. The right move simply didn't work out.

Who's "account?" 

 

Yours?

 

 

[howieramone2]

Did I say that?

[Darius]

I don’t mind the strategy. It seems to be take toolsy young position players with unlimited upside early, and then target the high-upside young pitchers that fall.

 

Seems like a pretty good way to get the best of both worlds, rather than one or the other.

 

Since pitching is a total crap shoot, I’d rather take the hitters and minimize the risk associated with a first round high school pitcher.

 

It’s ridiculous to bring college pitchers like Strasburg into the conversation. Clearly, if the Twins had a #1 pick and a guy like that was sitting there, they’d take him.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Any drafting strategy that suggests to pick the best athlete over the biggest organizational need is faulty imho...

with 6 years of development and the long history like Plouffe of being drafted a SS and being a productive major leaguer at 3B, I think looking for tools and creating/developing your depth makes a lot of sense, at least when drafting high schoolers.

 

College players, sure draft for need.

[Riverbrian]

 

It's not that they won't sign the expensive FA starters, it's that in many cases they're never even given the option to seriously negotiate.  Wheeler and Bumgarner wouldn't even listen to offers.  From what I understand, Strasburg wanted to stay with the Nats, and was only a free agent because he had an opt out, and was reasonably certain Washington would give him a better deal if they were forced to.  Cole brought a sign to his press conference that pretty much confirmed where he wanted to sign (pun intended), aside from which the Twins were never going to offer 9 and $324M, nor were any other teams.  That leaves Ryu as the only "expensive FA starter" left, and had we signed him, we surely wouldn't have signed Donaldson.  Ryu has 7.3 WAR since 2015, Donaldson has 26.7.

 

 

I agree with your post 

 

However, when it comes to the final result. "Can't" as opposed to "Won't" is no consolation and the same result. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I agree with your post 

 

However, when it comes to the final result. "Can't" as opposed to "Won't" is no consolation and the same result. 

 

Agreed--whether it's can't or won't, Gerrit Cole still pitches for the Yankees, not the Twins.  The distinction matters only on an online forum when the question centers around if Falvine is doing a good job improving the team/organization.  I will fault people for not doing what they can, but I will not fault people for not doing what they can't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You can't predict future needs in baseball. That's why most teams take the best player available. The exception is some teams will only take the best college player.

 

I 100% guarantee that every team will need at least one more starting pitcher than is currently on their roster. 100%.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don’t mind the strategy. It seems to be take toolsy young position players with unlimited upside early, and then target the high-upside young pitchers that fall.

Seems like a pretty good way to get the best of both worlds, rather than one or the other.

Since pitching is a total crap shoot, I’d rather take the hitters and minimize the risk associated with a first round high school pitcher.

It’s ridiculous to bring college pitchers like Strasburg into the conversation. Clearly, if the Twins had a #1 pick and a guy like that was sitting there, they’d take him.

 

then how do you get pitching? Clearly it is harder to sign or trade for than we think......And no, pitching is not a total crapshoot.

[howieramone2]

I 100% guarantee, each and every team's biggest need is not starting pitching.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

then how do you get pitching? Clearly it is harder to sign or trade for than we think......And no, pitching is not a total crapshoot.

 

I'd guess something along the lines of 20% availability of payroll, 20% ability to develop prospects, and 60% luck.

[Riverbrian]

 

then how do you get pitching? Clearly it is harder to sign or trade for than we think......And no, pitching is not a total crapshoot.

 

As Twins

 

Our best chance is development. Either developing from the ground up or developing via significant improvement from an acquired asset.

 

From those two options... it's going to be development that produces that lights out guy in both scenerios.  

 

I've come to the conclusion we will not sign or trade for someone that is... ready made. 

 

That's why the Perez crap last year and the Bailey (Whatever he is going to be this year) frustrates me so.

 

Mediocre pitchers who are not performing can't stand in the way of developing someone who might perform.   

[gunnarthor]

 

Who's "account?" 

 

Yours?

Why are you so pissy? We do this every year. Somebody says the Twins reached and then we have to post all this crap about Jay being drafted appropriately. It's not enough that Jay didn't work, it has to be the Twins were dumb just to draft him. 

 

"Jay spent his college career as a relief pitcher, but he ranked near the top of the draft class because most scouts believe that he has the mix of pitches necessary to become a starting pitcher in the Majors. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs rated Jay as the sixth-best prospect in the draft, while Jay rated ninth on the lists of MLB.com (Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo) and ESPN (Keith Law). Baseball America ranked Jay as the No. 13 prospect in the draft.

 

McDaniel ranked Jay second among all pitchers in this year’s class, writing that he flashes three plus pitches and held his velocity well in multi-inning relief stints. McDaniel feels that Jay could feature three 60-grade (or better) pitches in the future. Law notes that Jay could end up in the middle of a big league rotation and has four pitches, though he figures to be a three-pitch guy in pro ball. MLB.com has Jay’s velocity in the 93-95 mph range and topping out at 98. Callis and Mayo prefer Jay’s slider to his curve. BA clocks Jay’s slider in the low 80s and notes that some scouts have given it “wipeout” designation."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/twins-to-sign-tyler-jay.html

 

Heck, in one mock draft, BA had Jay going #1.

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/6/2/8707441/mlb-2015-draft-12-prospects-to-watch-in-the-super-regionals

 

Fangraphs had him going third

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2015-mlb-mock-draft-v2-0/

 

[ewen21]

 

As Twins

 

Our best chance is development. Either developing from the ground up or developing via significant improvement from an acquired asset.

 

From those two options... it's going to be development that produces that lights out guy in both scenerios.  

.   

I did not even read the rest.  THIS is what the HECK this organization has to do.

 

I am so sick and tired of the free agent pitcher charade year after year.  It is beyond stupid to sign guys like Cole or Strasburg.  All this squealing and whining about it made my stomach acids flow.  How stupid would it be to pony up all that money for a guy like Cole and then turns out to be a dud?  A vast majority of the time you don't come close to getting the value for your dollar.

 

Can we raise some damn pitching just once?  We have to be among the worst teams in the last twenty seasons with regard to drafting and developing pitchers.  We didn't draft Liriano, we went rule 5 for Johan.  All we have is Garza and Berrios (throw in Gibson if you want, but big whoop).  In twenty years!!!!

 

Enough of this free agent ace garbage.  Please let's learn how to draft and develop pitchers so we can have stable of cost controlled young arms.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

As Twins

 

Our best chance is development. Either developing from the ground up or developing via significant improvement from an acquired asset.

 

From those two options... it's going to be development that produces that lights out guy in both scenerios.  

 

I've come to the conclusion we will not sign or trade for someone that is... ready made. 

 

That's why the Perez crap last year and the Bailey (Whatever he is going to be this year) frustrates me so.

 

Mediocre pitchers who are not performing can't stand in the way of developing someone who might perform.   

 

That, to me, means you can't keep passing on pitchers until your third or later pick every year......unless you are somehow just better at this than everyone else (which they might be, but so far, we have no evidence one way or the other).

[old nurse]

 

All those names: Burdi, Jay, Cederoth, Reed, Curtiss, Stewart, Eades, Gonsalves, Slegers, Bard, Chargois, Summers, Williams, Boyd and Boer.

None drafted by the current regime