Twins Trade Graterol to Dodgers for Kenta Maeda in Blockbuster Deal

[diehardtwinsfan]

wow... I have to admit I didn't see this one coming. Losing Brusdar hurts, but after reading through this thread, I think this was a good move overall...  Couple thoughts:

 

• This front office continues to show little patience with oft injured pitchers. Trading Graterol at a higher value makes a lot of sense there. 
• On that, I suspect they don't think he can start either... Even a relief ace (Graterol's potential) for a potential above average starter with 4 years of control is pretty cheap I think in comparison.
• I wanted them to do something about pitching. They did. I'm a lot more comfortable with this rotation as it stands now, with reinforcements in Pineda and possibly Hill, this starting 5 (or 7?) is built to make it through the season, and there's lots of upside in the post season.

I guess the real question is whether or not Johnson can work his magic with Maeda. The K numbers are already pretty good, so hopefully the analytics guys can coax a bit more out of it as the raw stuff is there, along with a known MLB quantity. I like it. 

[h2oface]

 

One interesting thing to me is that it appears that the only reason this trade needed to go three ways was that the Twins wanted Maeda more than Price. Obviously, Boston was willing to swap Price for Graterol. So why didn't the Twins just do that trade with Boston? I would guess that such an offer was on the table, and the Twins wanted Maeda more than Price. It will be interesting to see if Maeda out-performs Price over the next four years. I wouldn't bet against it. And I would definitely bet that Maeda will be the better value for the Price. I suspect the Dodgers had to pay the Price to get Betts (probably knowing they can sign him long term). I'm trusting the FO on this call.

 

This is not to say that I don't like Price. I've always liked him as a pitcher, and he's a really interesting guy. But it concerns me that he's a big into video games and has had arm problems in recent years.

 

One final response regarding whether Maeda should start a playoff game. Our main competition in the playoffs will likely be heavily right-handed. Maeda is devastating against righties.

 

 

Maybe. But I see it as Boston just really wanted Graterol, and that was the driver. Price was a salary dump, and the Dodgers had to find a way to get Graterol for Boston to get the deal done, and the Twins needed a starter. Since Kershaw was off the table (ha) and the Twins couldn't get Beuhler - already had passed on him in the 2015 draft (24) for Tyler Jay (6) - the Twins had to settle for Maeda, and that is the best they could get. The prize was Graterol, and Boston's keen and savvy fleecing of the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is a lets get a mid-level starter and keep beating up on the bad and mediocre teams only to likely get throttled in the post-season type move. Personally I'd prefer they would have used a guy like Graterol, if they had to trade him, to get someone that had some upside. Maeda is soon to be 32 and has a lot of miles on his arm. It does fill a need though. Could really come back to bite them though. 

 

What ace is out there right now? they still have plenty of prospects to deal at the deadline, if there is a great pitcher out there. Plenty.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Big arm to give up, but the Twins were still in need of starting pitching. 4 years of control. 

 

I think I come down in favor of this deal. At the least, gotta give Falvine credit for courage.

 

This is all part of the cost of not getting one of the top FA starters.

I'd say I feel kind of "meh," more than anything.

 

MN needed an arm. I'm on board with moving prospects to make that happen. Pushing one of Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe out of a rotation spot is a positive. 

 

That said, this seems like a half measure. The FO landed another mid to back end rotation arm. There's value in solidifying the starting group, but they're still lacking at their greatest position of need, front end starters. If this is a move and not the move in regards to additions then I'm in favor. If this means the FO can be comfortable standing pat in July then we're being set up for another letdown in October. 

[Don Walcott]

 

Maeda's a good pitcher, but this might be exaggerated a bit by park factors and defense. Per ESPN, Dodger stadium has averaged in the bottom third for "hits" park factors the past 4 years (as compared to Target Field, which has averaged top third over that time).

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2016/sort/hitsFactor

 

And B-Ref has given Dodgers pitchers a boost from RA9def ("support from defense") over that time too (as compared to Twins pitchers who have been more neutral or negative in that mark).

I'd be careful about ballpark statistics as well. The main reason why there are less hits in Dodger Stadium over the past 4 years than in Target Field is because the Dodgers pitching staff have given up less hits than any other team over those four years. In 2016, the Twins gave up 127 more hits than any other team, and have been bottom third in that stat each of the last three seasons.

 

Additionally, the Twins have had more hits over those four years than the Dodgers. So if you just swap these two teams, Target Field would probably look like more of a pitcher's park.

 

And every game in Target Field over the past four years has had a DH hitting, compared with a pitcher hitting in Dodger Stadium 2-3 times per game.

 

Certainly, ballparks are a factor. But the teams that play in them are more of a factor.

[laloesch]

 

 

Maeda was put in the bullpen because the Dodgers had more starters than than they had spots for and Maeda's wipeout slider will play up in a relief roll.

 

I like Maeda as I'm a big proponent of strikeouts. If others more fancy ERA, I'd ask, would you trade Fernando Romero or Stephen Gonsavles for Maeda?

 

 

 

Correction:  Maeda was put into the bullpen because the Dodgers had FIVE BETTER starters than Maeda.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

• On that, I suspect they don't think he can start either... Even a relief ace (Graterol's potential) for a potential above average starter with 4 years of control is pretty cheap I think in comparison.

I'm not so sure. Above average starter is, what, 2-2.5 WAR? That's about where Maeda is now. Do we discount that for age? And he'll probably be getting ~$10 mil salary to do that, after incentives. Seems like we've been seeing that kind of cost/performance in modest trade and FA moves (Odorizzi, Pineda, potentially Gibson?) without giving up a ~$20 mil asset like Graterol for the privilege.

 

And a quality, well-leveraged reliever, even a 1-inning one, can put up 1-2 WAR without too much trouble. Relievers are generally more replaceable than starters, but there's good value in that kind of relief performance at league minimum salary.

[Shaitan]

 

I like the trade but I wouldn't sell Graterol short. The Twins got a very good pitcher for him at great value. Maeda will help the Twins this year and next. He has no potential to be great. Graterol has that possibility.

 

The postseason is often about who is hot at the right time. Matt Garza and David Freese were also above average baseball players who weren't superstars.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd be careful about ballpark statistics as well. The main reason why there are less hits in Dodger Stadium over the past 4 years than in Target Field is because the Dodgers pitching staff have given up less hits than any other team over those four years. In 2016, the Twins gave up 127 more hits than any other team, and have been bottom third in that stat each of the last three seasons.

 

Additionally, the Twins have had more hits over those four years than the Dodgers. So if you just swap these two teams, Target Field would probably look like more of a pitcher's park.

 

And every game in Target Field over the past four years has had a DH hitting, compared with a pitcher hitting in Dodger Stadium 2-3 times per game.

 

Certainly, ballparks are a factor. But the teams that play in them are more of a factor.

I know park factors aren't exact science, but they do contain adjustments for these factors.

 

Don't get me wrong -- the Dodgers have had good pitching staffs, better than those of the Twins. But the point of these park factors wasn't to suggest they are equal -- it's just that the stadiums are likely stretching the difference further.

[Bomba2026]

Hey another Average Pitcher...yeah. He will fit right in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The postseason is often about who is hot at the right time. Matt Garza and David Freese were also above average baseball players who weren't superstars.

Couldn't that just as well be used as an argument against trading Graterol for Maeda? Did we have to give up Graterol for another above-average player who may or may not get hot at the right time?

 

And of course, Garza was 24 years old and Freese 28, both basically in their second MLB seasons, when they achieved their primary postseason success. Does that suggest Maeda has the greater chance at postseason glory going forward?

 

[beterday]

First reaction is "Oh, no!!  You can't get rid of the most exciting pitcher the Twins have had in forever!"  But I trust this new front office and have to give it a chance to work out, but am not looking forward to Graterol pitching a no hitter against the Twins throwing 100 mph fastballs in the years to come.

[HighHeet]

 

Also, which WAR are you talking about? I learned the other day that WAR measures different things, so let’s clarify first.

Well for those who don't like WAR.... just say f-WAR!

[HighHeet]

We're all going to miss out on the best nickname that was never allowed to be:

 

So long.... and B-Grate!

[nicksaviking]

 

Correction:  Maeda was put into the bullpen because the Dodgers had FIVE BETTER starters than Maeda.

 

I doubt Kershaw, Buehler or Urias were available. With their track records, I'd rather have Maeda than Ryu.

 

Oh, and the Twins already got Hill.

[bird]

 

The time is now! No more prospect hoarding. Any of you old enough to remember Derek Parks? I do. 

Falvey helped build Cleveland pitching staff. Give this a chance.

 

Sure. I just happen to remember Pierzynski, Mauer, Garver, and a number of other hoarded catching prospects much more fondly.

 

I believe it's a false celebration and a false description, this whole "end to hoarding prospects" thing. I believe what we're seeing is further evidence that Falvey has a BALANCED and strategic approach. He's trying to win now and simultaneously accomplish three things: 1) have a deep and talent-rich MLB club, capable of being good enough to get to the postseason, good enough to overcome injuries, strong enough to have tradeable redundancy there, and lucky enough to make a run in the postseason; 2) keep enough powder dry in case an opportunity presents itself (by avoiding financial inflexibility); and 3) maintain a pipeline that continuously, without interruption, feeds the major league club. 

 

He's almost there already. It's an elite group of about a half-dozen organizations.

[Shaitan]

 

I don`t like how they`ve handled Graterol. Moved him to BP reducing his value & then trading him for someone that doesn`t move the needle for us. They could`ve said we`ll use him as an opener W/ the impression of him still as a starter.

 

I highly doubt that other GMs are basing their value on what the Twins' FO said this offseason with zero games played in the meantime. They base it on scouting reports.

[KirbyDome89]

 

wow... I have to admit I didn't see this one coming. Losing Brusdar hurts, but after reading through this thread, I think this was a good move overall...  Couple thoughts:

 

• This front office continues to show little patience with oft injured pitchers. Trading Graterol at a higher value makes a lot of sense there. 

Bailey, HIll, and Pineda all have serious injury histories and concerns yet all three were signed this offseason. Maeda's contract is incentive heavy based on his physical when coming to the US, and the Dodgers have been throttling his IPs the last few seasons to alleviate some of that anxiety. I think moving Graterol has everything to do with where MN sees him heading forward, and what they think they can get from Maeda. Hopefully the FO is right.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Further proof, along with Bailey, Hill, and Chacin that the front office isn't too enamored with trusting a rotation spot to any of Dobnak, Thorpe, or Smeltzer for anything other than emergencies.

 

An opinion I share, for the record.

 

Not quite true, I think the FO is ok with one of them in the rotation, but has no found ways to ensure Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe can be your shuttle depth/doubleheader extra guy.  What they've done is gone from a rotation that had 6 guys (Berrios, Odo, Pineda, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe) to one that now has 10 guys (Bailey, Hill, Chacin, Maeda).  This means we can now absorb 3 injuries to starters beyond the reduced availability of Pineda and Hill, and still "only" need to use Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe, instead of Balazovic, Duran, and whatever warm body they can snag off the waiver wire.

 

This move is 100% about depth, not a lack of confidence in Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe.

[rdehring]

When I first heard this last night, I was disappointed.  Part of that is that I had never heard of Maeda.  And part was my dream that Graterol could be either that long sought ACE or a shut down closer, at a minimum.Now that I have learned some about Maeda and had an evening to sleep on it, I am less disappointed. 

 

I continue to ask myself two questions.  If Falvine thought it was likely that Graterol could become a top line starter, would they have made this trade?  I think not.  Had they thought he could become a shutdown closer, would they have made this trade?  Maybe they would, but more likely not.  After my rationalization of the situation, it seems that Falvine probably don't think as highly of Graterol as me and I expect many of you.  If that is the case, this trade takes on a more favorable light.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't have time to read all the posts now, so this will probably be a repeat of what someone else has said.

I was really hoping Graterol would be a blow-everyone-away closer. If he stays in that role and he stays healthy he could be the career saves leader when he retires. I don't have enough insider info or talent-evaluating ability to have an opinion on whether he should be starting.

As with any trade, we won't know for many years who comes out ahead. I always think about Detroit trading for Doyle Alexander in 1987, who helped them win the AL East. To get him they gave up a prospect named John Smoltz. Detroit got the help they wanted in 1987 but Atlanta clearly won the trade. Time will tell.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With their track records, I'd rather have Maeda than Ryu.

How about Ryu + Graterol, versus Maeda?

[Puckmen]

The White Sox are coming. 2020 might well be the last year the Twins are better than the White Sox. So the window to win is now. In a vacuum, I wouldn't trade Graterol for Maeda. But in the context of going for it in 2020, I like the trade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How about Ryu + Graterol, versus Maeda?

 

The Ryu ship sailed, so I don't get this......they couldn't get Ryu, apparently.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Ryu ship sailed, so I don't get this......they couldn't get Ryu, apparently.....

I'm just saying, it might be a more accurate comparison than just Maeda vs Ryu and their contracts alone.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I'm not so sure. Above average starter is, what, 2-2.5 WAR? That's about where Maeda is now. Do we discount that for age? And he'll probably be getting ~$10 mil salary to do that, after incentives. Seems like we've been seeing that kind of cost/performance in modest trade and FA moves (Odorizzi, Pineda, potentially Gibson?) without giving up a ~$20 mil asset like Graterol for the privilege.

 

And a quality, well-leveraged reliever, even a 1-inning one, can put up 1-2 WAR without too much trouble. Relievers are generally more replaceable than starters, but there's good value in that kind of relief performance at league minimum salary.

But Maeda's best WAR was 2.9. In his 4 seasons he's only totaled 5.2.

 

Again I'm not anti Maeda. Its just that giving up an asset like Graterol seems like too much to pay for him.

 

In response to an earlier post, I don't think its fair to compare Graterol to the failings of Gonsalves, Stewart, etc. Each player succeeds and fails on their own merits not on someone else's. Graterol's biggest obstacle will be to stay healthy. I was really looking forward to him opening in 2020, or piggybacking for 2 innings off of Odorizzi maybe.

 

GL in Boston Brusdar. And welcome to MN Kenta Maeda.

[dex8425]

 

Again I'm not anti Maeda. Its just that giving up an asset like Graterol seems like too much to pay for him.

 

In response to an earlier post, I don't think its fair to compare Graterol to the failings of Gonsalves, Stewart, etc. Each player succeeds and fails on their own merits not on someone else's. Graterol's biggest obstacle will be to stay healthy. I was really looking forward to him opening in 2020, or piggybacking for 2 innings off of Odorizzi maybe.

 

The argument that is the same is that prospects are just that, prospects. They are unproven and as such, you are not sure they will ever work out at the mlb level. Some do work out, but due to the numbers, most don't. For every Mike Trout first round pick there are three Kyle Gibsons and three guys who never make the majors. 

 

I'm not comparing Graterol to Stewart per se, only saying that they were both once top pitching prospects. 

[h2oface]

Maeda was not very happy out here in LA, especially come play-off time. There were even times during the last two seasons, and not just the playoffs, with the Dodgers pitching depth and clever carousel with the AAA club and IR list, that Maeda was asked to come out of the pen, especially when Jansen became a risk. So was Ross Stripling. Plus, every so often, Hill and Ryu and the other oft injured would all get healthy at once, and there was just not room for them all to be in the rotation. Maeda, because of his success out of the pen, would be the the sacrificial lamb. I didn't realize, until the trade, that it benefited the Dodgers financially, and limited the money Maeda made. While he would get hot at times (hey, even Ricky Nolaso and Mike Pelfrey would have a good month once in a while) and be lights out, as his stats show, his upside seemed to be capped, and still does. The previous poster(s) that claimed that he just wasn't one of the 5 best starters was(were) correct, especially with the emergence of Buehler and Urias. Stripling had a great starting streak while Hill was hurt last year, and he would get sent back to the pen, too. Also now traded as part of the Joc Pederson to Angels trade. I really don't see Maeda as an upgrade, regardless of his MLB pedigree, to what we could field, and still have Graterol and all the upside and the power in the pen for this year.

 

The more I write about it, the more I really don't like this trade. But it is what it is now. One thing is for sure - you can never have enough good pitching. Which is a reason to add Maeda, but is also another reason for not trading Graterol, especially, since he could have made the pen even stronger. You can never have too good of a bullpen, right? I just have a gut feeling that Maeda will bomb, and Graterol will shine like Ortiz did in Boston.

[sweetmusicviola16]

The Dodgers from what I can tell made a great deal for their 2020 season. Betts for Verdugo. Price replaces Maeda who was sent to the pen regularly. Only figure I've seen is the BoSox will pay a substantial amount of Prices salary.

[USAFChief]

How about Ryu + Graterol, versus Maeda?

probably Ryu + Graterol vs Maeda + Donaldson