Is Marwin Gonzalez a lock to make the roster?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

People in this thread keep suggesting that there is a possibility that some sort of punishment could be coming later.

The league can't punish any of the players, they gave them full immunity.

Not sure if you were referencing me. I’m not talking about league punishment, but, Marwin is only one of the two higher profile Astros playing for another team now, and if the P.R. surrounding this goes south, the Twins might wish to reconsider. Road games might get a little dicey with Marwin in the lineup.

 

I agree, I don’t think Marwin is as good as people are giving him credit for here. That will factor into it. He was certainly an asset going into 2019. Maybe that’s the Marwin people are thinking of.

[Danchat]

If 2019 Marwin is the player were going to see going forward, that's not anywhere near league average offense.

He was 93 OPS+ last year.

That, in itself is well below league average. When factoring in that he's a corner player, and league average OPS includes positions like catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, it's borderline unacceptable.

93 OPS+ is fine for a solid 3B backup, and he can be a defensive replacement to finish games at 1B/LF.

 

Most everyone on this team is going to hit 100 OPS or higher, so I think it’s fine having a slightly below average hitter on the bench as a defensive replacement / spot starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If 2019 Marwin is the player were going to see going forward, that's not anywhere near league average offense.
He was 93 OPS+ last year.
That, in itself is well below league average. When factoring in that he's a corner player, and league average OPS includes positions like catcher, shortstop, and centerfield, it's borderline unacceptable.

That's fair.

 

By wRC+, Marwin was also at 93. Here are the league-wide wRC+ figures by position:

 

3B: 107

1B: 108

LF: 105

RF: 108

DH: 104

 

SS is a little closer, at 100.

 

So unless Marwin plays CF (95), 2B (92), or catcher (85), yeah, he's probably a clear step below a league-average hitter for his position.

 

It's not a huge step below, though -- by WAR, adding in defense and adjusting for position, he was still basically an average starter (roughly ~2 WAR for a full season), as he has been pretty much every season since 2014.

[akmanak]

Personally I don't like him. If he played for that cheating team, I don't want him on the roster.

[Monkeypaws]

Marwin is welcome on my Twins squad - there was a stretch mid August last season where he was damn near invincible: August 7-18.

 

20 for 45, saw his ops rise 50 points, 12 RBIs. I was at the August 11 game, and he was just locked in. Almost won it in the bottom of the ninth with a rope that miss being a walk-off HR by a couple feet. He is a quality ball player.

 

I'm sure his teammates are aware of the shenanigans, and if they are okay with it, so am I.

[ewen21]

 

 

 

It speaks volumes that a team could implement a systematic scheme known to each and every player to cheat their fellow players in as direct a manner as the Asterisks did in 2017, and yet, the needle on not one single player's moral compass spun out of control? 

 

 

Absolutely correct.  If the Astros are found guilty of this then it is entirely fair to conclude that Marwin is complicit in this by saying nothing.  The data and video evidence certainly proves that some players were wearing a wire and almost every position player benefitted from the banging garbage can signs.  I doesn't surprise me no Astro player has spoken up to distance themselves from this.  

 

Marwin simply just isn't worth the trouble given what has transpired.  I would hope they simply discard him like a worn out part. Just DFA him without fanfare. 

 

 

[Rosterman]

He still has value. He is the first in-line if you need someone at 1B, 3B or DH. You have him under contract. You know he starts the season in a funk...every season, it seems.

 

Should they have signed him to two years last year? Probably not. Is he still a commodity if someone suddenly needs an experienced bat from a spring training injury? He is.

[bird]

 

Well Mike Fiers was the one who opened this whole can of worms. I wouldn't go so far as to say every player's moral compass is broken. It's possible that every other single Astro was gung-ho about cheating, but I think it's just as likely that there were players who were uncomfortable with the scheme but lacked the guts to speak out. I mean, if the manager himself didn't like it but didn't have the pull to stop it, I can't imagine a young guy having the steel to step up to Carlos Beltran, who surely was a living legend to most of those guys. Which really is a terrible aspect of this whole situation; there were likely young players who were new to the majors learning and taking notes from the veterans who gave them the impression that this is just how things were done.

 

 

"He who accepts evil without protesting against it is really cooperating with it." ---- MLK

 

I'm going to have a hard time excusing guys who are virtually irreplaceable. Guys who would have every team in baseball clamoring for their services if they protested. Bregman, Springer, Altuve, Correa, Cole, Verlander. No one protested in a way that shows a sinew of real moral courage. Not one.

 

It won't happen, but I'd like just one reporter-just one- to corner Marwin Gonzales and ask the questions. "Marwin, by all the evidence, you took part in sign-stealing in 2017 and benefitted from your cheating to the serious detriment of your fellow major league ballplayers. Did you in fact cheat and harm other players in 2017?"

[howieramone2]

"Let he who is without sin cast the first stone"

[Riverbrian]

 

No one will be able to convince me that "My Team" should take even the slightest of hits when the Astros will be lining up Bregman, Correa, Altuve, Gurriel, Springer and Reddick on a regular basis. The Twins do not need to self impose punishment on themselves based on some sort of self imposed morality. 

 

As for his contract and value. The Twins paid for position scarcity. You can't compare his numbers to players who only play one position. Marwin plays them all and that makes him scarce and that is what the Twins paid for and got. 

 

The Twins failed to develop a Marwin so they had to pay for one in order to shift into the 2019 roster management model that produced numbers beyond our imagination. 

 

The question isn't... "Is Marwin Gonzalez a lock to make the roster?".

 

The question is... Who will do what he does in 2021? 

[jorgenswest]

Marwin should be on the team because of his contribution on the field. I just question whether that contribution has any more space for decline.

 

Is he no longer a super utility player and now restricted to the four corners? If he is a corner player shouldn’t his bat matter most?

 

Consider BP’s DRC+. It factors in context like quality of opposing pitcher. It correlates better year to year than OPS+. His DRC+ was nearly the worst on the team at 92. Astudillo was at 95. Astudillo faced a much more difficult group of pitchers in his plate appearances than Gonzalez and his performance against that set of pitchers put him closer to league average than Gonzalez.

 

Does Astudillo help more on the roster? Does Cave? Wade? What if Rooker or Larnach or Kirilloff are tearing the cover off the ball in the spring? Would they help the team more?

 

The Twins will have four spots on the bench. Unless Gonzalez is a middle infielder Adrianza gets one. Avila gets another. I think Marwin is in competition with those other 6 younger players. At some point at least 2 will be better options to help the team than Marwin. Are we sure it won’t be soon?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

A few helpful terms.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Due_process

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presumption_of_innocence

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_jeopardy

Marwin isn’t accused of breaking the law. He was a part of a team that broke the rules of a game.

 

Due process is a function of a collective bargaining agreement. What if anything is to be done about this would be employment law not criminal law.

 

The league has already said they aren’t seeking punishment for players. They needed the players to corroborate to go after team management.

 

What ever the Twins do has more to do with forecasting Marwin’s value compared to alternatives for his roster spot.

[Mr. Brooks]

No one will be able to convince me that "My Team" should take even the slightest of hits when the Astros will be lining up Bregman, Correa, Altuve, Gurriel, Springer and Reddick on a regular basis. The Twins do not need to self impose punishment on themselves based on some sort of self imposed morality.

 

As for his contract and value. The Twins paid for position scarcity. You can't compare his numbers to players who only play one position. Marwin plays them all and that makes him scarce and that is what the Twins paid for and got.

 

The Twins failed to develop a Marwin so they had to pay for one in order to shift into the 2019 roster management model that produced numbers beyond our imagination.

 

The question isn't... "Is Marwin Gonzalez a lock to make the roster?".

 

The question is... Who will do what he does in 2021?

IMO, Adrianza is better than Gonzalez, and can play more positions. And he's cheaper.

 

So I A) disagree that the Twins haven't developed their own Marwin.

And he's your answer to your last sentence.

[howieramone2]

IMHO, Gonzalez in much better than Adrianza. I see Gordon replacing Adrianza in 2021 and Gonzalez becoming a free agent.

[Riverbrian]

 

IMO, Adrianza is better than Gonzalez, and can play more positions. And he's cheaper.

So I A) disagree that the Twins haven't developed their own Marwin.
And he's your answer to your last sentence.

 

I won't argue this... However at the time of the Marwin signing... Adrianza wasn't really Adrianza yet so they didn't develop him yet. 

 

And... Adrianza could be gone as well. 

[jorgenswest]

 

IMHO, Gonzalez in much better than Adrianza. I see Gordon replacing Adrianza in 2021 and Gonzalez becoming a free agent.

Do you think they still see Gonzalez as an up the middle player? He played the same number of games at 2B as Astudillo last year (2). His UZR at SS was awful in 2018 which I might disregard but combined with the Astros choosing to play others at SS starting in July '18 I wondered a year ago if he was no longer a passable SS. The Twins played him once at SS. If he is not a SS he is not competing with Adrianza.

[Riverbrian]

 

Do you think they still see Gonzalez as an up the middle player? He played the same number of games at 2B as Astudillo last year (2). His UZR at SS was awful in 2018 which I might disregard but combined with the Astros choosing to play others at SS starting in July '18 I wondered a year ago if he was no longer a passable SS. The Twins played him once at SS. If he is not a SS he is not competing with Adrianza.

 

 

I wouldn't look at his playing time at 2B as a consideration. Schoop and Arraez were primarily healthy last year.

 

While Sano, Cron, Buxton and Kepler went out for fairly lengthy stretches. That will flow the playing time for someone like Marwin in those directions like water. 

 

[jorgenswest]

 

I wouldn't look at his playing time at 2B as a consideration. Schoop and Arraez were primarily healthy last year.

 

While Sano, Cron, Buxton and Kepler went out for fairly lengthy stretches. That will flow the playing time for someone like Marwin in those directions like water. 

 

Is it possible that next August we are wondering why we continue to give at bats on a corner to a 90 OPS+ bat without finding out whether Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff can contribute more with the bat?

[Riverbrian]

 

Is it possible that next August we are wondering why we continue to give at bats on a corner to a 90 OPS+ bat without finding out whether Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff can contribute more with the bat?

 

Yes

 

But I really hope not. 

 

If Baldelli manages the roster like he did last year, I don't anticipate any such issues.

 

 

[howieramone2]

I think you're making it too complicated. It's up to those 3 to force the issue. These things have a way of working themselves out.

[Danchat]

 

Is it possible that next August we are wondering why we continue to give at bats on a corner to a 90 OPS+ bat without finding out whether Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff can contribute more with the bat?

Eh, there will likely be several injuries and guys on the DL by that point. Most of this debate is moot once somebody gets hurt.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is Marwin Gonzalez a lock to make the roster?

I don't think Marwin is particularly tradable right now -- he's probably not quite good enough / cheap enough for teams to overlook the scandal cloud.

 

But he's not nearly bad enough or controversial enough for the Twins to cut him either.

 

So yes, he is a lock to make the roster.

[Number3]

Let he who has never improved his lie in the rough during the weekend Nassau with his golfing buddies cast the first player off the Twins' roster. I cannot believe the holier than thou comments. Just let the Twins' roster go through the process all teams go through year after year. What if Donaldson pulls a pec on his first swing thinking the pitch was going to be a fastball when it was a change up?

[Otto von Ballpark]

And not only have rosters expanded to 26, but it sounds like the number of pitchers will be capped at 13. So we essentially have an extra bench spot over much of last season.

 

I see our bench right now as the following:

 

Avila

Marwin

Cave

Adrianza

 

Assuming a healthy starting 9, there's no significant playing time available for Rooker, Wade, Larnach, etc. anyway, regardless of whether Marwin is around. (And if someone gets hurt and goes on the IL, that will open a spot and playing time regardless of Marwin too.) Plus Cave still has an option year, so we can temporarily swap him out for Astudillo or Gordon if, say, the outfield is 100% but a catcher or infielder is day-to-day.

 

And we can obviously re-evaluate midseason -- if Marwin is tradable by then, and if a prospect is fully healthy and knocking on the door, we can make a move. But right now, not so much.

[USAFChief]

 

Let he who has never improved his lie in the rough during the weekend Nassau with his golfing buddies cast the first player off the Twins' roster. I cannot believe the holier than thou comments. Just let the Twins' roster go through the process all teams go through year after year. What if Donaldson pulls a pec on his first swing thinking the pitch was going to be a fastball when it was a change up?

Never would'a happened with a well timed bang on a trash can.

[ewen21]

 

 I cannot believe the holier than thou comments. Just let the Twins' roster go through the process all teams go through year after year.

If I don't want Gonzalez (or any other Astros on the team) this is "holier than thou"?  Do you think this guy is coming from a place that is "holier than thou"??

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/video-indians-mike-clevinger-has-perfect-response-to-how-astros-scandal-is-more-significant-than-fans-think/ar-BBZ4gza

PLENTY of players don't appreciate this scandal and why have any taint from it when we don't have to have it?

 

Sorry, but I am in a career where I am scrutinized and if I do something questionable like Gonzalez and his teammates did (over and over again--not just once) I would be fired.

 

Playing professional baseball is a privilege.  Three managers and a GM have caught consequences for this.  Are you saying the players shouldn't take any heat for it?  Shouldn't the players also be held accountable for this?

 

To heck with him.  Discard him like a broken part in a machine.  Find someone else in the snap of a finger.

 

 

[specialiststeve]

Nothing is a lock but with his experience and versatility he will likely be staying. Especially now with Maeta and the win now mode. We have Blankenship In the wings to take over his role next year...

[Number3]

 

If I don't want Gonzalez (or any other Astros on the team) this is "holier than thou"?  Do you think this guy is coming from a place that is "holier than thou"??

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/video-indians-mike-clevinger-has-perfect-response-to-how-astros-scandal-is-more-significant-than-fans-think/ar-BBZ4gza

PLENTY of players don't appreciate this scandal and why have any taint from it when we don't have to have it?

 

Sorry, but I am in a career where I am scrutinized and if I do something questionable like Gonzalez and his teammates did (over and over again--not just once) I would be fired.

 

Playing professional baseball is a privilege.  Three managers and a GM have caught consequences for this.  Are you saying the players shouldn't take any heat for it?  Shouldn't the players also be held accountable for this?

 

To heck with him.  Discard him like a broken part in a machine.  Find someone else in the snap of a finger.

And during the off season the Twins can form a choir and travel the country singing songs beginning with "Pure as the wind driven Snow". Sorry Ewen but you are assuming an awful lot about all the other players on all the other rosters including the Twins. By the way, have you ever improved your lie in the rough?

[Number3]

 

 

Never would'a happened with a well timed bang on a trash can.

Exactly

[SmellEm]

What an absurd question. Of course he will make the roster.