Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins, and How the Astros Cheated Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

The sign stealing allegations have ran rampant regarding the 2017 Houston Astros, and penalties have already been levied. Lurking in the background was Tony Adams, an Astros fan that did his own digging, and now we have some crosshairs right on how the Twins were impacted.Back in early January Nick Nelson wrote about how the Twins may have been impacted by cheaters. We know that Houston and Boston were involved, but we aren’t sure how far that reach expanded. Thanks to Tony, who Marc Carig did a great job speaking with over at The Athletic, we now can see a pretty direct picture of the tainted Twins happenings.

 

Here’s the thing, it actually appears like the Astros started off the year relatively clean. Maybe they were feeling out their new system, or maybe it was around the time that A.J. Hinch went on his smashing spree. Nonetheless, it was in July that Minnesota traveled to Minute Maid Park, and it was game one that produced the second most egregious results of the regular season.

 

 

During the three-game series in Texas, Twins pitchers threw 472 pitches. Of those, there were trash can bangs on 112 pitches, a whopping 24%. In game one, 48 of a total 179 (27%) pitches were tipped off. 84 total pitches thrown that day were not fastballs. That means Houston hitters knew, at a 57% clip, when they’d see a breaking pitch during that specific game.

 

Not surprisingly, the results suggested this was the case as well. Houston scored 10 runs that day, hanging seven on starter Jose Berrios. Phil Hughes came on to get the final out in the second inning but was tagged for three runs on five hits while allowing two dingers on his own. The Astros grabbed 10 runs before Minnesota was able to record nine outs. Good day at the office to be sure, but certainly not as impressive when it’s coming in on a tee. The Twins fared better in game two and three, splitting the affairs, but 64 more Rubbermaid bangs were used over the course of that action.

 

 

Hughes had opined when the original story broke that this was a game he thought back to. Knowing it was the one time he pitched against the Astros on the road, and proceeded to get lit up, it isn’t a surprise it would stick in his memory. His tweets today immediately pointed to that performance and give significant credibility to the advantages Houston had.

 

More bad news is that it wasn’t just the 2017 Twins who felt the impact of these exploits. Matthew Trueblood recently wrote how Marwin Gonzalez likely benefitted from Houston’s scheme. He posted a career best OPS, and despite favorable numbers on the road, Nick Nelson pointed out a wOBA that jumped off the page in the friendly confines of Fresh Squeezed Park.

 

What’s more, the analysis provided by Mr. Adams shows that Marwin didn’t only participate, but he may have been a ringleader. No Astros player was given more hints as to what was coming than Gonzalez received. If he knew breaking pitches were coming that often, it’s pretty apparent why he would have posted career bests across the board.

 

 

There’s a ton to unpack here and heading over to signstealingscandal.com will allow you to dig to your hearts' content. It’s interesting that Jose Altuve was the batter at the plate the least when the garbage can rang out, but if he was wearing an electronic device as suggested then there’s probably less of a need to be involved. Former, and very short-term, New York Mets manager Carlos Beltran appears near the top of the leaderboard which isn’t a surprise given his named involvement.

 

At the end of the day, this whole orchestration will go down as one of baseball’s greatest transgressions. A wild card-reaching Twins team was definitely exploited on the arms of Berrios and Hughes, and a current utility man will likely have question marks follow his production wherever he goes. This doesn’t change punishments or make any new ones more likely, but it definitely points to the negative impact on the Twins as being more drastic than on most other teams

 

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[h2oface]

I wonder how long Marwin has with the Twins. This has to affect how he is regarded by his teammates, no? While I am personally not someone who really cares about sign stealing, and feels the method is not important, if the goal/result is the same...... it is surely not the majority opinion, nor MLBs, and certainly not the players. This has to make him a tainted person in the clubhouse. I don't see how it can be good for "chemistry".

[by jiminy]

The Twins were robbed in another way, too, by paying for prediction from Gonzales that will never happen again without cheating.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I wonder how long Marwin has with the Twins. This has to affect how he is regarded by his teammates, no? While I am personally not someone who really cares about sign stealing, and feels the method is not important, if the goal/result is the same...... it is surely not the majority opinion, nor MLBs, and certainly not the players. This has to make him a tainted person in the clubhouse. I don't see how it can be good for "chemistry".

 

I don't think this will have any effect on Gonzalez's relationship with his teammates. There are guys in that clubhouse who have been suspended for PEDs. They got to know Gonzalez all of last year. I may be wrong and it may cause issues, I will just be shocked. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Twins were robbed in another way, too, by paying for prediction from Gonzales that will never happen again without cheating.

 

People have one good year all the time and use it to get paid. Gonzalez had a breakout year in 2017. He had a regular Marwin Gonzalez year in 2018 (when we know that the Astros were still doing stuff)... The Twins knew what they were getting in Gonzalez... Solid hitter who provides a ton of versatility. I don't think that any of this alters that thinking or what they thought they were getting. There's a reason he didn't get anywhere near what most thought he would get a year ago.

[twins_89]

One side note to the sign stealing is that the impact was more than just the times when a breaking ball was signaled. There is also value in knowing that a breaking ball is not coming (no banging). In that instance hitters could sit on a fastball with a higher degree of confidence.

[Dave Overlund]

Here’s a “fun” question no one is asking: what if the Twins hitting a MLB record of home runs the first year Marwin is in town isn’t just a coincidence?

[Blackjack]

You'd think other teams would have picked up on this 'trash can banging' noise and reported it??!  

[Dave Overlund]

 

You'd think other teams would have picked up on this 'trash can banging' noise and reported it??!  

As the story goes, many teams and players noticed something was up, but MLB swept it under the rug until Fiers took the nuclear option and went public. 

[JDubs]

 

As the story goes, many teams and players noticed something was up, but MLB swept it under the rug until Fiers took the nuclear option and went public. 

Even worse, when people brought it up, Hinch and others on the team repeatedly mocked them as sore losers coming up with wild excuses for why they couldn't beat the Astros.

[cardsfan]

Not too long ago:

 

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEL0Sd1yZLqjmo3watMuCeYYqFwgEKg8IACoHCAowjuuKAzCWrzwwxoEY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US

[TNTwinsFan]

Here’s a “fun” question no one is asking: what if the Twins hitting a MLB record of home runs the first year Marwin is in town isn’t just a coincidence?

 

 

[blindeke]

Watching these Astros/Twins games is infuriating. I'd urge you to click through and watch some of the games. (Links are on the site.)

 

Astros players cheating, scoring, then high-fiving as if they'd just done it all themselves. The Twins pitchers getting mauled and looking depressed. 

 

It's much, much easier to hit well when you literally know what pitch is coming. Completely unfair and dishonest, and really pulls the rug out from baseball as an enjoyable and competitive sport.

[NorthStarNines]

There are measurable contributing factors that can explain a lot of the Twins record home run production. If you look at launch angles, Twins hitters have been taking advantage of new analytical technology to improve their launch angles and hit more bombas. There's also the juiced ball, which MLB/Rawlings denies, but hard data backs up. Besides those measurable things, there was Nelson Cruz bringing his experience as one of the best hitters in the game, a bunch of young players all hitting their prime years at the same time (Kepler, Sano, etc.), and a Twins coaching staff with an innovative approach to rest/player health. I'm not saying it's not at all possible, but I don't believe it happened, and there are a lot of reasons for the Twins success in 2019.

 

Here’s a “fun” question no one is asking: what if the Twins hitting a MLB record of home runs the first year Marwin is in town isn’t just a coincidence?

 

[KFEY93]

I personally can NOT WAIT for the regular season to start and have the Astros get abused by other teams fans at EVERY game. Its going to be glorious. I hope they dont even win 70 games. ( Unlikely) but man that would feel good. 

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Here’s a “fun” question no one is asking: what if the Twins hitting a MLB record of home runs the first year Marwin is in town isn’t just a coincidence?

I guess I don't see the correlation? The Twins aren't cheating, and he isn't using PEDs, so what advantage would he bring?

[SomeGuy]

An interesting note before saying that Marwins 2017 was solely a result of cheating, we know that the trashcan usage began mid season. Below are Marwin's splits for 2017.

 

1st half .308/.391/.576, wRC+ 160, BABIP .338

2nd half .299/.363/.485, wRC+ 128, BABIP .348

 

May was by far his best month with an insane .382/.461/.737, wRC+ 217

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/How-the-Astros-cheating-scandal-played-out-14972308.php

[woolywoolhouse]

My guess: for the first few weeks of the 2020 season, Marwin is going to hear garbage can banging when he comes to the plate from some unhappy fans in the crowd.

[mikelink45]

No matter what the cause, Gonzalez has just this year left on his contract and his career with the Twins.  We have Lewis, Gordon, Blankenship coming up and utility is a good place for at least one of them.  

With Donaldson we now have all the positions plugged in and there is less need for Gonzalez to force his way into the lineup.

[SomeGuy]

 

I guess I don't see the correlation? The Twins aren't cheating, and he isn't using PEDs, so what advantage would he bring?

How do we know we weren't cheating is what he is saying. The Red Sox improved on the system in 2018 by eliminating the not so subtle trashcan approach the Astros used. For all we know Gonzalez found a new way too. It is believed that using tech to steal signs was more wide spread than 2 teams. He is just raising the question that maybe Marwin brought ideas of how to do that.

 

Nothing suggests this actually happened but it could have happened. The Astros  got away with it and we only found out because of a rat. Pretty much every player admits that if they can steal the other teams signs they will. So i don't think it is outside the realm of possibility that the Twins did but it is unlikely. Finding out that at a minimum 2 of the last 3 world series were won by teams cheating but not learning about it until well after the fact suggests how easy it is to get away with this.

 

[TFRazor]

 

Here’s a “fun” question no one is asking: what if the Twins hitting a MLB record of home runs the first year Marwin is in town isn’t just a coincidence?

Well I wish we would've cheated better when we got our butts handed to us in the playoffs. This is silly. If you have any sort of evidence that there was cheating by the Twins last year then please share. Are you saying the Yankees were cheating as well? After all, we were trading the HR lead with them right up to the end. If all it takes is banging on a trashcan then the Astros should've been leading. The reason no one is asking that "fun" question is that until there's some sort of evidence that cheating occurred it's not based in reality and therefore a useless mind experiment.

[Dave Overlund]

 

I guess I don't see the correlation? The Twins aren't cheating, and he isn't using PEDs, so what advantage would he bring?

My point is that we simply don't know. Obviously I don't have any information implicating the Twins, but I am guessing you don't have information proving for sure they weren't.

 

[Dave Overlund]

 

Well I wish we would've cheated better when we got our butts handed to us in the playoffs. This is silly. If you have any sort of evidence that there was cheating by the Twins last year then please share. Are you saying the Yankees were cheating as well? After all, we were trading the HR lead with them right up to the end. If all it takes is banging on a trashcan then the Astros should've been leading. The reason no one is asking that "fun" question is that until there's some sort of evidence that cheating occurred it's not based in reality and therefore a useless mind experiment.

 

Per NBC Sports "First, let’s be 100 percent clear about something: the Astros and the Red Sox were not — not by a long shot — the only teams stealing signs. To suggest that they were is to live in fantasyland. Tom Verducci reported the other day that the investigation of the Astros led to at least seven or eight other teams being mentioned. Last night Michael Baumann of The Ringer linked to stories over the past couple of months in which sources said they believed that the Diamondbacks, Indians, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals and Brewers have engaged in sign-stealing shenanigans as well." 

 

I am not saying that the Twins cheated. Clearly, I am just some guy that doesn't have inside information. I just think it's interesting that no one has even thought that it was a possibility. 

[Dave Overlund]

 

An interesting note before saying that Marwins 2017 was solely a result of cheating, we know that the trashcan usage began mid season. Below are Marwin's splits for 2017.

 

1st half .308/.391/.576, wRC+ 160, BABIP .338

2nd half .299/.363/.485, wRC+ 128, BABIP .348

 

May was by far his best month with an insane .382/.461/.737, wRC+ 217

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/How-the-Astros-cheating-scandal-played-out-14972308.php

He also hit much better on the road in 2017. 

[TFRazor]

 

Per NBC Sports "First, let’s be 100 percent clear about something: the Astros and the Red Sox were not — not by a long shot — the only teams stealing signs. To suggest that they were is to live in fantasyland. Tom Verducci reported the other day that the investigation of the Astros led to at least seven or eight other teams being mentioned. Last night Michael Baumann of The Ringer linked to stories over the past couple of months in which sources said they believed that the Diamondbacks, Indians, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals and Brewers have engaged in sign-stealing shenanigans as well." 

 

I am not saying that the Twins cheated. Clearly, I am just some guy that doesn't have inside information. I just think it's interesting that no one has even thought that it was a possibility. 

I don't think it's fair to say that no one has thought of the possibility. I'm sure it's crossed someone's mind. The point is that two months into the biggest scandal in MLB since PEDs, with nearly 1/3 of the teams in the league to be mentioned as at least "under suspicion", there hasn't been a whiff of the Twins being involved. Until that happens, it's a thought experiment. It's a question without any basis in known facts.

[mnfarmer]

 

Here’s a “fun” question no one is asking: what if the Twins hitting a MLB record of home runs the first year Marwin is in town isn’t just a coincidence?

Look at how many bombas the twins hit at home (137) and how many they hit on the road (170) with all due respect, Your "fun" question is ultimately a "dumb" question.

[jkcarew]

The game after the Berrios game, Santana, Rogers, and Kintzler held the Astros to 2 runs. The game after that our favorite whipping boy, Kyle Gibson held his own.

 

Meanwhile, when the Astros's visited Target Field that year, sans garbage can, they hung 40 runs on the Twins in 3 games...including 9 base-runners and 4 runs in 5 innings to hang another loss on Berrios.

 

I'm all for consequences (although, 'punishment' comes from the league, not the Twins). They created an advantage by willfully, and in an organized fashion, doing something against the rules. They cheated. But there is simply not much in the data to say that it was particularly effective or sustained....despite what some will try to do by cherry-picking specific at-bats and games.

[KirbyDome89]

Brooks initially posted it, but by the logic used here didn't the Twins cheat the entire league last year, the AL Central in particular, by riding Pineda's hot second half to a division title? 

 

As far as links to MN and cheating, it's a fallacy to prove a negative. That doesn't mean the Twins are entirely innocent here. Most fan bases would be better off reserving judgement. It's entirely possible all of this is more widespread, or that using video to gain an advantage runs much deeper than what is currently being reported. We can name individual players who were caught using PEDs during the 90s/early 00s, but we also know the problem went well beyond those individuals. While MLB tries to clean up their house, they very well could be content to let Houston and Boston bear the brunt of public scrutiny. 

[SomeGuy]

 

Look at how many bombas the twins hit at home (137) and how many they hit on the road (170) with all due respect, Your "fun" question is ultimately a "dumb" question.

Unless the method used wasn't exclusive to home games....

 

The possibility presented by the electronic device conspiracy would pretty much enable anyone to do this anywhere. You could have someone in the stands sending signals directly to the batter etc.

 

There is nothing to implicate the Twins but like PEDs it can be fair to wonder about things outside the known violations.

[blindeke]

 

Watching these Astros/Twins games is infuriating. I'd urge you to click through and watch some of the games. (Links are on the site.)

 

Astros players cheating, scoring, then high-fiving as if they'd just done it all themselves. The Twins pitchers getting mauled and looking depressed. 

 

It's much, much easier to hit well when you literally know what pitch is coming. Completely unfair and dishonest, and really pulls the rug out from baseball as an enjoyable and competitive sport.

 

Here's the most egregious inning from the most egregious game: https://youtu.be/7FYj9_5sQk4