Are the Twins Ready for No Pineda, No Hill, No Impact Starter to Begin 2020?

[Nate Palmer]

The Minnesota Twins are starting the season without their full complement of preferred starters. Just what is ahead of the Twins until Michael Pineda returns from suspension and can they weather whatever storm could head their way?As the Minnesota Twins made their pivot from “impact pitching” to an impact Bringer of Rain, something became glaringly obvious. With Michael Pineda and Rich Hill not starting the season in the rotation, as the roster stands, two rotation spots are going to be open for one of the young guys to grab hold of.

 

There is still time for the Twins to add another pitcher to bring that number down to one, whether through a trade or a nice little nonroster-invite signing like say, Taijaun Walker. There is no guarantee either of those things will happen or work, so in how bad condition are the Twins regarding their rotation?

 

Michael Pineda has another 39 games to serve on his suspension as 2020 kicks off. If we divide 39 games by five rotation spots we get a nice round 7.8 games. For our purposes let’s round it and make it 8 games per rotation spot or 16 games total the fourth and fifth rotation spot may be responsible for before Pineda joins the team.

 

Every year, to survive the dog days of summer, teams end up having to find games from outside their planned five starters. So how many of those did the Twins need in 2019? Exactly 16 games. They came from Devin Smeltzer (6), Randy Dobnak (5), Lewis Thorpe (2), Kohl Stewart (2), and Cody Stashak (1). The good news for 2020 is that three of those five names are the first three in line to get starts again. They’ve been there.

 

The Twins were incredibly healthy for 2019, with 26 starts from Pineda being the lowest number among their preferred five starters.

 

In 2018 the Twins needed to find 35 starts from outside of their preferred five. And we all know how that went. The 2018 Twins were given the relatively late blow that Ervin Santana was hurt and would not be able to start the season.

 

That resulted in a heavy dose of Fernando Romero as the fifth starter and six games opened by Gabriel Moya. Trevor May, Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey, Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, Chase De Jong, Aaron Slegers, and Phil Hughes also recorded starts.

 

The difference between 2018 and 2020 seems to be twofold. First, the Twins are currently walking into the season prepared to fill those fourth and fifth starter spots from within. And one of them for a determined period of time. The Santana injury in 2018 came out of nowhere and there was no clue exactly how long it would affect the right-hander.

 

Second, the Twins are now much better equipped to fill gaps even if something does go horribly wrong. Thorpe, Dobnak, and Smeltzer are much more battle-tested. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic don't seem far away. Also Brusdar Graterol has been declared an MLB player for 2020. While the bullpen is his destination, maybe early in the season he fills some sort of opener-type roll.

 

That is 16 games not counting any snow or rainouts or the ability to skip spots in the rotation. This team seems built to withstand 16 games. Ultimately some of those early season starts may help the Twins later in the summer as others need to skip a start and take some maintenance rest. That said, a trade for an impact starter would absolutely be welcomed right now. If it doesn’t happen until later at the trade deadline, the Twins should be fine.

 

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[joemama]

That's also 16 games assuming no injuries. Injuries happen. What if we learn on March 20th that Berrios or Odorizzi is out for two months? I sure hope we bring in another vet or two on a minor league contract. Yes, Walker would be nice - and this seems like a good situation for him. But as noted in a prior article, he's probably holding out for now, hoping for a better opportunity.

[KirbyDome89]

Smeltzer, Dobnak, and Thorpe have about 100 IP and 13 total starts combined. I wouldn't call that battle tested. It's very possible they become the 18' versions of Gonsalves, Mejia, or Slegers. 

 

This team is ready in the sense that they have bodies to fill rotation spots, but that shouldn't the bar to clear for a group that's expected to actually compete in a postseason series. 

 

The cost of a SP isn't going to be more palatable at the deadline. Kicking the can down the road once again and waiting 3+ months to acquire the front end arm they so desperately need is less than ideal....

[howieramone2]

We have signed 8 free agents for 152M. 4 of which were in MLBTR's top 50, and 2 in that group starting pitchers in their top 20. We have 3 healthy starters who have already spent time in The Show, fighting over 1.25 spots. Our highly rated and deep farm system remains intact. No doubt we will trade for a #3, before we do battle with our old friends, the Yankees.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It may be 16 starts before Pineda rejoins the rotation, but it's a lot more than 16 games that we will be counting on these guys.

 

Hill is set for June at the earliest. He's 40, often injured, and just went under an experimental (yet promising) surgery. Given it's associated with his ulnar, I wouldn't even assume he's back to his old self come June... So yeah, I think it's going to be a lot more than 16 games that we're counting on reinforcements... Hopefully we see Dobnak and Thorpe take big steps forward and make us forget about this, but I can see a lot of complaints about a lack of planning for the rotation, and rightfully so.  

[Old Twins Cap]

What a great situation to put the young guns out there, see who can pitch, who can't.

 

I hope they use an opener for one of the spots and keep the shuttle going between Rochester and Minneapolis.

 

The other slot, do a true split, Dobnak and Smeltzer, try to get four out of each of them.

 

Pitchers need to pitch, especially young pitchers. Once Hill and Pineda come back, there will not be an opportunity to grow the staff.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

 No doubt we will trade for a #3, before we do battle with our old friends, the Yankees.

 

 

There is doubt. 

[Riverbrian]

This only works if Bailey is viewed as insurance in case the prospects struggle. 

 

If the kids are viewed as the insurance. The front office has probably made a mistake. 

 

The front office has committed to the kids. They are no longer insurance. 

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

Smeltzer, Dobnak, and Thorpe have about 100 IP and 13 total starts combined. I wouldn't call that battle tested. It's very possible they become the 18' versions of Gonsalves, Mejia, or Slegers. 

 

This team is ready in the sense that they have bodies to fill rotation spots, but that shouldn't the bar to clear for a group that's expected to actually compete in a postseason series. 

 

The cost of a SP isn't going to be more palatable at the deadline. Kicking the can down the road once again and waiting 3+ months to acquire the front end arm they so desperately need is less than ideal....

 

It's not really that the cost will be more palatable at the deadline, there just might be more options available. If the Cubs aren't able to keep up with the suddenly-threatening Reds, the Cards, and the Brewers, they might be willing to ditch Lester or Hendricks or something. As of now, those guys are pretty much off the board, they're not interested in trading them. 

 

If the Twins wait until the deadline to acquire another arm, they're just hoping there's a better option out there. Robbie Ray might not even be available in a trade right now with the move the Diamondbacks made yesterday. I don't even know who they could go make a play for at this point, too many teams think they're competitive. 

[specialiststeve]

Do like how Baldelli has confidence in the young guys... reminds me of how the Rays work their young pitching. Have to give them some time up in the show to understand what needs to be done to be successful.

 

For a LONG time we have babied our young pitching and seemed like waited forever to get them some time up with the big club. I really like how the new FO is running our minor league with getting guys time up to get a taste. Should be interesting watching the young guys get more of a run this summer....

 

Nice article ...

[stringer bell]

I don't think the Twins can depend on five guys in the rotation to get them through the season. Last year was an anomaly in that, until August, the team got more than 90% of their starts from the same five guys, who were all reasonably effective. This year, we can expect one of the three written in already (Berríos, Odorizzi and Bailey) to come out of the rotation because of injury or ineffectiveness. Beyond that, I think it should be expected that at least one of the three likely replacements at the bottom of the rotation (Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe) also either gets hurt or struggles. Having Pineda and Hill as reinforcements at roughly the quarter pole and halfway mark is prudent, but overall I expect Twins starters to be a continuing problem this season.

 

My hope is that the club's starters, as a whole, improve as the season progresses. Last year was the opposite.

[stringer bell]

The wisdom of waiting for the trading deadline is that the Twins will have a lot more clarity on what they need and a better idea of which pitcher fits their needs. Most of the guys signed as free agents have questions attached to them. Performance in the first half will answer many of those questions. I expect the price tag would be high, but the Twins also by then will have a better idea of which prospects they are willing to trade in order to get who they want. 

[Dantes929]

We have two all star starting pitchers.  Why are they not considered impact guys?  Both are plenty capable of throwing really good games.    I don't love the delay to to get to Hill and Pineda but have no problem giving innings to the young guys.   I swear if some on here were running things Blyleven, Viola, Santana, Liriano, Radke, Berrios etc. would never have made the rotation because at one time they were untested young guys.   Its not like earlier this decade where guys that didn't really do well in the minors were promoted because there was just no one else.    Dobnak and Smeltzer in particular have earned their shot. 

[rdehring]

Don't know which two of the three will get the early season starts, but expect that one will do so well the Twins will have to keep him in the rotation once Pineda and Hill are both back.  Maybe both will do so well that they will end up trading a veteran at the deadline.  Package Bailey with one of the blocked outfielders for a very good prospect down in A ball.   

[4twinsJA]

I think Bailey sets the bar for the young pitchers, if they pitch better than Bailey, they will move ahead of him. If not will continue to get opportunities but on a more limited basis. I agree, it would be great to have one more solid pitcher. But it will be good to see what these young pitchers have and let them pitch their way to more or move on to the next guy,.

[Nate Palmer]

 

We have two all star starting pitchers.  Why are they not considered impact guys?  

If you are referencing the title, that is more a throwback to the comments made by the front office. I have gone as far on Twitter to wonder aloud if Pineda can be that better than Odorizzi impact arm the Twins were seeking. So the title is not meant to bring down the value of Berrios or Odorizzi. 

[mikelink45]

I hope that Balazovic rises quickly - I have more hope for him than for Hill for the last half season

 

[HrbieFan]

All 3 had some good outings last year and gained valuable experience. With a steady bullpen, none of them will be asked to get 7 innings every night. Just get us 4-5 and keep it close. Just as Dobnak and Smeltzer surprised last year, I'm sure we will have a few arms surprise this year.

[MMMordabito]

Is Jose Berrios not an impact starter?  Perhaps the title should read "new impact starter".

 

I don't think the Twins are done on the MiLB contract side of things.  They are just being patient for the right deal.  

 

I count eight starts that will need to be covered for Pineda, and that's with not skipping the fifth starter early to setup the available top three (Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey) for the first series with Cleveland.  That also assumes that none of  Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe pitch well enough to be handed the ball every fifth day with any hope of being competitive.  

 

Honestly, I think it would be a worst case scenario for the Twins to lose the season on those eight starts and the five that the fifth guy will get in the same time frame.  Yes, everything could go completely wrong, but I think the Twins will slug their way to at least 6-7 in those 13 games, even if replacement level pitching is all they get.

 

I'm hopeful that Dobnak will be at least a 4.0 FIP pitcher and the Twins will ink a couple minor league contracts that will combine with Thorpe and Smeltzer to take care of those other starts until Pineda returns.  I'm also looking forward to some possible creativity with the use of the young "starters" and the deep pen.  They may have said that Graterol would work out of the pen, but they haven't said anything about the length of those appearances.  This may be turning into a pet idea of mine, but again I will say, "Go look at Ryan Yarbrough's line."  There's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

For me, Hill is just a lottery ticket purchased with someone else's money.  Someone could argue that the $3 mill opportunity cost could have been used to nail down getting Walker, but that's just robbing Peter to pay Paul, imo.

 

As far as the available deadline options not costing less than what a trade candidate would cost now, you do have time to evaluate a Dobnak or make sure you aren't the one paying an injured or declining Lester.  That has a bit of value.

[ChrisKnutson]

All we need is one more starter and I don’t care if it’s Walker or Cashner, but we need one more. However, if the FO is still keen on adding an “impact starter,” then they should start being a little more aggressive because there’s plenty of teams to deal with, although the 3 teams that’d I’d consider the most are the Marlins, Red Sox, or Pirates.

 

Marlins:

Miami should be our prime target given their starting pitcher depth and the strong likelihood of them once again finishing last in the NL East. If you remember, earlier in the offseason it seemed as though there was going to be a deal revolving around Cave and Hernandez, although with the Dickerson signing that now seems unlikely. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a deal to be had whether it’s for Hernandez, Alcantara, or Smith.

 

Red Sox:

I understand that the headlines have been all over a Betts/Price package, but what about an E-Rod/Price package instead?? Then perhaps Boston would be able to afford Betts and we’d get two legitimate impact pitchers. If not, there’s always Eovaldi; who I think could flourish under Wes’ tutelage.

 

Pirates:

After the Marte trade, it seems like Cherington is in search of lower level prospects which should definitely be appealing to the Twins. The options we have to choose from are either Archer or Musgrove, and both seem to be capable of far more than what’s been shown in Pittsburgh.

[Doctor Gast]

Great topic! I like how you brought up 2018. That year we also had high expectations coming off a surprise wild card spot 2017. 2018 we picked up Odo & Lance Lynn, we had a good line up, great defense, good SP & good BP. Then Santana came up w/ a minor finger problem. He was expected to be out for a short time & he never came back. We sat back on our lorales (?) & dug ourselves in a deep hole in the beginning of the season which we never recovered. 

Bailey & the young arms may be solid for part of the season but it`s very unlikely they`ll step up & be that solid # 3, it`d be irresponsible to depend on them for the entire season. There are too many intangibles where we need a high end # 3 to step up & do it for us. I absolutely agree that we need to give our young arm ML exposure & we need to be creative in doing that.

[cardsfan]

Let's get this straight. Homer Bailey had an ERA of 5.58 on Aug. 7 after giving up 7 earned runs. This pitcher who has several seasons averaging 1.6 WHIP has turned it around.

 

Pineda suspended for banned substances will have no lingering effects for violating the rules. He just didn't know.

 

Rich Hill at 40 is going to recover after an experimental procedure on his elbow tendon. He will be throwing 93 Mph after he comes back in June.

 

What will happen is like last year score 930 runs beating up the 7 teams that lost 89 or more.

 

But, unless some minor leaguer comes out of nowhere it will be hard to beat the Yankees, Astros, and the NL champ with this pitching staff. Miracles do happen, but, three rounds.

[howieramone2]

 

Let's get this straight. Homer Bailey had an ERA of 5.58 on Aug. 7 after giving up 7 earned runs. This pitcher who has several seasons averaging 1.6 WHIP has turned it around.

Pineda suspended for banned substances will have no lingering effects for violating the rules. He just didn't know.

Rich Hill at 40 is going to recover after an experimental procedure on his elbow tendon. He will be throwing 93 Mph after he comes back in June.

What will happen is like last year score 930 runs beating up the 7 teams that lost 89 or more.

But, unless some minor leaguer comes out of nowhere it will be hard to beat the Yankees, Astros, and the NL champ with this pitching staff. Miracles do happen, but, three rounds.

Couldn't help noticing MLB.com power rankings have us 4th, and your favorite team 8th. We appreciate your help, but are you comfortable leaving the Cards behind in their time of need?

[jkcarew]

Not sure there's much difference between Pineda and Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe (despite Thorpe's small-sample 2019 results). Don't think not having Pineda in the first quarter of the season will make a material difference. And, who knows what the Twins will get from Hill (hopefully, we can find out before the trade deadline).

 

The difference that matters is the (still hypothetical) guy that can start game 1/2 of a 5-game playoff series with a real and good chance of controlling a stud lineup for 6 or more innings. And chances remain decent, that that guy won't be needed to finish ahead of Cleveland and Chicago. Risky, but probably still true in the 2020 AL Central.

[dex8425]

 

It's not really that the cost will be more palatable at the deadline, there just might be more options available. If the Cubs aren't able to keep up with the suddenly-threatening Reds, the Cards, and the Brewers, they might be willing to ditch Lester or Hendricks or something. As of now, those guys are pretty much off the board, they're not interested in trading them. 

 

If the Twins wait until the deadline to acquire another arm, they're just hoping there's a better option out there. Robbie Ray might not even be available in a trade right now with the move the Diamondbacks made yesterday. I don't even know who they could go make a play for at this point, too many teams think they're competitive. 

And the Reds got Castellanos. So say goodbye to Trevor Bauer on the Twins for now.

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

And the Reds got Castellanos. So say goodbye to Trevor Bauer on the Twins for now.

Exactly. By my count, there's only 6-7 teams that are openly tanking for 2020 already:

 

Detroit, KC, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, and maybe Seattle. Potential to throw in Colorado if they deal Arenado. I don't really know what arms you want to target on those teams, but the odds are either that they're not cheap, or they're not very good. Might as well wait until more teams enter the market and see if you can pick a crafty veteran guy that you like, especially assuming the scouting department has probably already looked at this info and determined there's really no upside to dealing with any of these teams for the available arms they have and what it would take to acquire.

[Dantes929]

Just looking at it statistically if our offense gives us over 5.5 (still a big if) runs per game and if our bullpen actually performs to the optimistic level many have for it then the rotation as a group only needs to average a 4.5 ERA. to win over 90 with a good shot at the playoffs.    I don't stress about the playoffs.   Fact is Santana was plenty good enough to win a couple years ago but compounded by a horrible ball call on Gregorius just pitched really bad.   Last year the least reason for the Twins playoff failure was the rotation as the offense scored very little, the defense gave up several and the bullpen gave up many.   I admit I am more a journey than a destination guy.   Playoffs are for drama and for getting hot.   The Nationals weren't considered to have much of a chance.   They were lucky and then good and then hot.   

[TFRazor]

One of the nice things is that at the moment if one of the young guns gives up a run or two in the 3rd inning, that doesn't mean game over. This offense is going to provide a pretty spectacular fall back for your younger pitchers. No need to deflate if you give up a solo shot when the next 3 batters for your team are Donaldson, Cruz and Sano. Other teams are going to be aggressive and try to score because they know the Twins are going to. Use that aggressiveness against them and get them swinging at borderline pitches early. Once they're doing that, you own them.

[Dantes929]

 

Great topic! I like how you brought up 2018. That year we also had high expectations coming off a surprise wild card spot 2017. 2018 we picked up Odo & Lance Lynn, we had a good line up, great defense, good SP & good BP. Then Santana came up w/ a minor finger problem. He was expected to be out for a short time & he never came back. We sat back on our lorales (?) & dug ourselves in a deep hole in the beginning of the season which we never recovered. 

Bailey & the young arms may be solid for part of the season but it`s very unlikely they`ll step up & be that solid # 3, it`d be irresponsible to depend on them for the entire season. There are too many intangibles where we need a high end # 3 to step up & do it for us. I absolutely agree that we need to give our young arm ML exposure (not to jeopardize our PS in doing so) & we need to be creative in doing that. 

I don't know if they sat back on their laurels but is a point well taken.    Lynn, Odo Reed,  and Morrison were great signings.   You can't control injuries but you also can't control guys playing well.     2018 was more talented than 2017 but played way worse.   2019 was only slightly better than 2018 but played way better.    Its not like Musial who used to smile all ST because he knew he would hit .350.   We don't have those guys.   There is a world of difference between Kepler 2018 and Kepler 2019.    People ask how you can keep the same team and expect to be better.   The answer if by playing better. 

[cardsfan]

Couldn't help noticing MLB.com power rankings have us 4th, and your favorite team 8th. We appreciate your help, but are you comfortable leaving the Cards behind in their time of need?

They would win the division title with this ranking. Then like last season can they outpitch in the first round of the playoffs? They have a pre-arbitration player in Flaherty who was pitcher of the month in August and September. They have Dakota Hudson who is pre-arbitration and won 16 with a WHIP of 1.4, but, ERA of 3.35. 4 months ERA below 2.8. Miles Mikolas who was disappointing record wise, but, his team won more of his starts than lost. Then there is the #5 starter Wainwright who still knows how to pitch. The Cards brought in a top 30 year old Korean who has a top slider and was the best pitcher in the Korean leagues. Carlos Martinez may start again. And then Alex Reyes could stay healthy and be a surprise it would be quite a staff to pick pitching from if they stay healthy. John Gant was 11-1 in mid-inning relief and he would win several tie ballgames when he came in during the 6th and 7th before running out of gas in mid-August. He can be a 5 inning starter. They got top mid-reliever who dominated at times in Gallegos with a .811 WHIP in 74 IP. Also, Genesis Cabrera may be a power-pitching starter coming over in the Tommie Pham deal.

 

We keep turning out pitching from minors though it seems like they always suffer some major arm injuries like Lance Lynn and Marco Gonzales.

 

The Cardinals have perhaps 2 30 Hr hitters. Everyone is trying to figure out how to get Nolan Arenado by trading a bad contract and others for him. Hardly anyone hit above .265 anymore.

 

They have other pitchers in the pipeline getting Tampa's young upcoming starter in the minors.

 

Yes, Arenado without destroying our pitching staff would be interesting. He is not too happy in Colorado now.