In Win-Now Mode, Twins Keeping Graterol in Bullpen

[Homerhankie]

I keep reading from many posters..Rocco will use him as an opener) I just dont...in any way...the Twins doing this. We have never shown any ambition to using an opener...I just dont see this happening, but so many posts about it happening

[travkro]

Brusdar has to develop his change up if wants to be elite. Can he do this out of the bullpen? How was Santana's change up when he worked in the bullpen? 

[stringer bell]

 

Hi all, been a long-time reader and figured I should break the seal and post some, too. Apologies in advance for any bad formatting.

 

I personally like the Graterol bullpen move, especially the clarity of it given the past Twins' tendency to waffle, which I never believe helps young players.

 

Beyond the Santana comparisons, I think of Sale's transition. Yes, he was a reliever turned starter, but it's not unthinkable to believe the innings trajectory and path couldn't be similar. 

 

Age 21 season: 23 innings as a rp, 1.93 ERA

Age 22 season: 71 innings as a rp, 2.79 ERA

Age 23 season: 192 innings as a starter, 3.05 ERA, All-Star and 6th in CY voting

 

We'd all be pretty happy--and patient--for that path, I'd imagine.

Welcome to Twins Daily DanFordWasTheMan.

[stringer bell]

 

^^This.  I would really like to see Graterol used as an opener early and often to get some inning load.  At some point would like to see him as a starter, but this year lets use him in the pen.  Let him get 2-3 inning stints for first few months and once Pineada is back use him as a high velo arm at the back of the pen.

And welcome to Twins Daily Gary_Wayne_Guy!

[Patrick Wozniak]

I think Graterol will be a real weapon in a fluid multi-inning relief role. It may also help the development of his secondary pitches to be around MLB pitchers who he can learn from and being able to work more directly with Wes Johnson. 

[Dantes929]

 

This isn't really an "in my opinion" question - given his lack of extended work, he's far more likely to to have arm issues starting & racking up innings over the course of the year.

 

There have been actual studies to this end, and luckily the Twins don't need to rely on your apparently un-researched opinion. Two examples of recent studies:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350667/

 

and

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2016/01/predicting-pitcher-injuries/

Wow!   I mean thanks for pointing out the studies.   I have read studies before and the conclusions have always been non conclusive.  I  read as much as I could follow of these two but come on.    The first study is a study of 2 starters and 5 relievers for a college team and how spring and fall sessions differed..   I really hope the Twins don't rely on your researched? study.   The results of the study   as far as I can see the more a pitcher throws the more he has soreness?     Great study.

The 2nd study basically says that X number of pitchers are gong to get hurt in a season, as far as I could tell doesn't really relate to Graterol and says Chapman was more likely to have arm problems than Dickey.     Did you really come out of reading those thinking there was factual evidence as it relates to Graterol?    

[Twins33]

I’ve always felt that Graterol ends up in the BP so this is fine with me. He’s still young so maybe he can be a good starter but how many pitchers have we said that about? A lot of them and the majority of the time it hasn’t happened. 
 

he needs to develop that changeup or some other third pitch if he’s going to be a successful starter in the future. He’s been working on the changeup for at least two years now..so far nothing good has come from it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Johan's usage wasn't a development plan -- he was a Rule 5 pick. He threw 160 innings in the minors in 1999, then only 86 the next year in a full season of MLB. That wasn't really about development, or winning ballgames -- it was just hiding him on the roster.

 

2001, Johan was injured for much of the season, so he was limited to 43 innings. But he was still pretty mediocre at this point too.

 

2002, he had his breakthrough performance -- and he threw 163.1 innings for the year, combined minors/majors/postseason -- basically the same as the following year, 166.

 

So the Johan example doesn't really say anything about holding back Graterol for years, if he's actually healthy and effective. (At least not holding him back much.)

Beat me to it.

 

Besides, Johan wasn't close to Graterol at age 20. 

 

At age 20, Johan was a prospect lost in the Rule V draft, a prospect with upside but not enough upside to protect in the Astros system. It was only after a few stops and starts, a Cueller changeup, that Johan became the dominant force he was.

 

Graterol is a different story. He's a 100mph pitcher with a good slider and a change/curve with potential. And he reached the majors at 20 years old while Santana only reached the majors at 21 out of necessity (the Rule V draft) and wasn't actually good until he was 23 years old.

 

Not really the same situation... at all.

[D.C Twins]

I think that this is more a referendum on his change up than a 'win now' philosophy.

 

If his change up was MLB ready, there is no question in my mind that he would begin the season as a starter and then perhaps transition to the bullpen when Pineda and/or Hill were ready (to conserve innings at that point). 

 

The coaches clearly don't think the change up is MLB ready. Therefore providing value in the bullpen as one of the organizations 13 best pitchers is the way to go!

 

Hopefully our pitching whisperers will work their magic during practice throughout the season... because it is pitch development and not innings progression that will ultimately determine his fate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think that this is more a referendum on his change up than a 'win now' philosophy.

 

If his change up was MLB ready, there is no question in my mind that he would begin the season as a starter and then perhaps transition to the bullpen when Pineda and/or Hill were ready (to conserve innings at that point). 

 

The coaches clearly don't think the change up is MLB ready. Therefore providing value in the bullpen as one of the organizations 13 best pitchers is the way to go!

 

Hopefully our pitching whisperers will work their magic during practice throughout the season... because it is pitch development and not innings progression that will ultimately determine his fate.

This is what I don't understand. If he's ready to start, put him in Minnesota.

 

If he's not, well... the way this team is aligned, the first half of the season is going to be much more difficult to manage than the second half (in regards to the rotation), so I'm not really sure what they're doing here.

 

Pretty early on, they'll get Pineda back. Hopefully after that, they'll get Hill. I'm not really sure how or where easing Graterol into the rotation works given the dynamics of this team.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think that this is more a referendum on his change up than a 'win now' philosophy.

 

If his change up was MLB ready, there is no question in my mind that he would begin the season as a starter and then perhaps transition to the bullpen when Pineda and/or Hill were ready (to conserve innings at that point).

 

The coaches clearly don't think the change up is MLB ready. Therefore providing value in the bullpen as one of the organizations 13 best pitchers is the way to go!

 

Hopefully our pitching whisperers will work their magic during practice throughout the season... because it is pitch development and not innings progression that will ultimately determine his fate.

I don't think it's a good idea to put a 20 year old kid in the majors, then spend his bullpen sessions working on a pitch that he isn't even going to throw in games.

Pitching in MLB is hard enough.

 

If his third pitch isn't ready, he should be throwing it in minor league games.

All I hear is how we're a mid market team, we have to develop our own front of the rotation starters. What happened to that?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Welcome to Twins Daily DanFordWasTheMan.

 

 

And welcome to Twins Daily Gary_Wayne_Guy!

 

Apparently Dan Ford was "The Man", but Gary Wayne was just "A Guy".

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is what I don't understand. If he's ready to start, put him in Minnesota.

 

If he's not, well... the way this team is aligned, the first half of the season is going to be much more difficult to manage than the second half (in regards to the rotation), so I'm not really sure what they're doing here.

 

Pretty early on, they'll get Pineda back. Hopefully after that, they'll get Hill. I'm not really sure how or where easing Graterol into the rotation works given the dynamics of this team.

 

I think starting him at the outset and then easing him into the pen makes the most sense to get him those innings while keeping him here... Just my two cents.

 

I know that pen time can be valuable too... STL, if I remember right, often uses the pen as a developmental component to their starters, and given that Graterol isn't going to go more than 100-120 innings, it really does make sense to kill a few birds with one stone... They have two starters that won't be ready in April/May... use that to get his innings up, switch him to the pen, and plan on him as a starter in 2021 if the changeup progresses enough. 

[Possumlad]

 

Wow!   I mean thanks for pointing out the studies.   I have read studies before and the conclusions have always been non conclusive.  I  read as much as I could follow of these two but come on.    The first study is a study of 2 starters and 5 relievers for a college team and how spring and fall sessions differed..   I really hope the Twins don't rely on your researched? study.   The results of the study   as far as I can see the more a pitcher throws the more he has soreness?     Great study.

The 2nd study basically says that X number of pitchers are gong to get hurt in a season, as far as I could tell doesn't really relate to Graterol and says Chapman was more likely to have arm problems than Dickey.     Did you really come out of reading those thinking there was factual evidence as it relates to Graterol?    

Yes I did. The second (in particular) indicates that usage/volume is a contributing factor to injuy in pitchers. Of course injuries can happen for other reasons, but it's both logical--and proveable--that more usage increases the likelihood of injury. And this would make particular sense for someone without a ton of usage in recent seasons.

[MN_ExPat]

I really like your example of Adam Wainwright. He pitched great out of the pen, especially since the Cards had need of it, then transitioned just fine to a starting role. It’s also pretty cool because Adam is an alumni of my sons high school and is still very involved in the program (and one of the finest human beings I have ever met).

 

But anyway, Brusdar will be fine. The Twins have a need that he can fill so let him fill it and then they will go from there.

[Doctor Wu]

Good article and some very good comments too. I for one was hoping they were going to give Brusdar a chance to be a starter this year, and at the start of the season, especially seeing as how Pineda and Hill can't pitch for the first two months. We need some good arms in that starting rotation. That said, I understand the reasoning for putting him in the bullpen and limiting the number of pitches. Not saying I'm thrilled with it, but I can see the logic in doing it this way. But darn it, I want to see this kid starting some games sooner than later.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think starting him at the outset and then easing him into the pen makes the most sense to get him those innings while keeping him here... Just my two cents.

 

I know that pen time can be valuable too... STL, if I remember right, often uses the pen as a developmental component to their starters, and given that Graterol isn't going to go more than 100-120 innings, it really does make sense to kill a few birds with one stone... They have two starters that won't be ready in April/May... use that to get his innings up, switch him to the pen, and plan on him as a starter in 2021 if the changeup progresses enough. 

It definitely makes sense to give him a shot in the Opening Day rotation, but that's not what the Twins are hinting right now... unless I missed something, they specifically mentioned the bullpen.

 

I'm wholly on board with a transition from rotation to the bullpen to keep his innings down. That makes a lot of sense.

 

The inverse makes a lot less sense given the construction of this roster.

[DocBauer]

Again, my initial thoughts are for him to start, either for the Twins or in Rochester, and transition to the pen later in the year due to IP.

 

But I'm wondering now if the plan is to work out if the pen, use and work on his secondary stuff in games and on the side with Johnson, keep his IP under control, and look to join the rotation later in the year.

 

Sort of an ongoing development program at the ML level, where you still contribute, but get to work with the top staff.