Front Page: Do the Twins Really Need to Add Another Starter?

[terrydactyls]

 

 

 
And no one is saying everything will go perfect. I pointed that out multiple times throughout the article. It's also OK to give guys opportunities when you have given yourself some great depth.

Is this a new TD rule? We now have to read an article before criticising it?

[Riverbrian]

 

Good post. The problem too me is stability. You start the year with Odorizzi, Berrios, Bailey, ...... i guess some combination of Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Graterol for the 4th and 5th spots. Dobnak looks like he has the stuff to hold down a rotation spot, followed by Smeltzer who doesn't throw that hard but has a multitude of offerings, and then Thorpe who has the stuff but is just plain hittable (at leasst he was). Then there's Graterol who is just plain raw. 

 

Then you get Pineda back in late spring and Hill early to mid summer.

Will be a very interesting spring regardless of whether or not they add another starter.

 

Stability is extremely important and you can't stabilize unless they have stable top level needle moving talent.

 

Teams have basically 3 ways of acquiring needle moving top level talent. 

Sign it

Trade for it

or Develop it

 

Signing or trading requires cooperation from others outside of the organization and this is beyond the teams control. The free agent must agree to sign and may want to live in New Jersey. The GM of the team you are trading with may not want what you are offering and has the right to insist on a larger package beyond what you are willing to pay. We have learned this past trade deadline and this if off-season that simply acquiring a top level arm is difficult. 

 

This leaves development. Of the three options, Development is one option that the Twins have the most control over. But that development is made much harder to accomplish when secondary or tertiary free agent or trade acquisition options are preferred. 

 

They didn't trade for Stroman or Boyd or whoever last trade deadline. They must produce their own.

 

They didn't sign Wheeler or Bumgarner or Cole or Strasburg this off-season. They must produce their own. 

 

They should have started last August. They didn't... They must start now.

 

We can't be looking for 3 arms again next year. We have seen the result this off-season and last trade deadline... we don't wan't to do this again. 

 

If you are not trading the talent... USE THE TALENT. 

[jkcarew]

 

And of course, because there are so many relievers used in modern baseball, so many bullpen innings thrown, looking at total team bullpen performance isn't a good indicator of postseason bullpen strength either. A team like the Yankees rolled into the postseason with 5 elite-performing relievers -- they had other various pen arms that dragged down their regular season totals, so their total FIP, etc. was probably in line with the Twins, but those other arms were pretty much irrelevant to how their pen would be utilized in the postseason.

This illustrates a great point that can't be overstated...

 

The playoffs is about the top end of your pitching staff...both starters and relievers. The bottoms of the rotation/bullpen are barely used. The match-ups are strength against strength.

 

"Deep", "balanced", "solid" are descriptors of pitching staffs that will win you division titles and get you to the post-season. Studs are what will bring you home once you get there.

[jorgenswest]

No. They do not need to add pitching. If they do it has to be at the top and pushing Bailey to the pen.

 

They need to develop pitching and at some point that means devoting major league starts to promising pitchers who have shown sustained success at the upper levels of minors.

 

Thorpe needs the opportunity. Graterol needs a spot if he has a good start at AAA. Smeltzer and Dobnak both have a chance to take another step this year.

 

I hope that group combines for at least 40 starts. The Twins needs one to emerge. They can’t emerge or grow if they are in the pen or on the shuttle.

 

No they don’t need to add more though I do acknowledge every team would say yes they need to add a front starter. If that is the bar there is nothing to discuss.

[howieramone2]

RB, they jump started the process at the 2018 trade deadline. I won't come out and say it's one of the biggest days in our favorite team's history, but if somebody else did I wouldn't argue.

[DocBauer]

Stability is extremely and you can't stabalize unless they have stable top level needle moving talent.

 

Teams have basically 3 ways of acquiring needle moving top level talent.

Sign it

Trade for it

or Develop it

 

Signing or trading requires cooperation from others outside of the organization and this is beyond the teams control. The free agent must agree to sign and may want to live in New Jersey. The GM of the team you are trading with may not want what you are offering and has the right to insist on a larger package beyond what you are willing to pay. We have learned this past trade deadline and this if off-season that simply acquiring a top level arm is difficult.

 

This leaves development. Of the three options, Development is one option that the Twins have the most control over. But that development is made much harder to accomplish when secondary or tertiary free agent or trade acquisition options are preferred.

 

They didn't trade for Stroman or Boyd or whoever last trade deadline. They must produce their own.

 

They didn't sign Wheeler or Bumgarner or Cole or Strasburg this off-season. They must produce their own.

 

They should have started last August. They didn't... They must start now.

 

We can't be looking for 3 arms again next year. We have seen the result this off-season and last trade deadline... we don't wan't to do this again.

 

If you are not trading the talent... USE THE TALENT.

Love the post. Really, really wish we could re-wind time to late last season and pitch some of these kids more in place of Perez and Gibson. I GET why they didn't, they were trusting more experienced guys and really hoping at least one if them would right himself in time for the post season. Obviously, it didn't work that way.

 

I don't doubt for a moment that Falvey and Levine will continue to work the phones. They are fully aware the first month or so looks a little weak. What we don't know is just how much the FO likes and believes in these youngsters. I doubt they are going to tell us. But if we don't see a trade before the season starts that tells us 1 of 2 things, or both. 1] The cost to add now is exorbitant 2] They really like the potential of these kids, especially considering the cost asked for.

[RaoulDuke]

If they don't add a starter this team will feel like the Os/ Jays of Chris Davis and Jose Bautista's prime.  Major offense/ major power, still not going anywhere vs the top couple teams.

 

The Twins are even with NY and Hou now on offense, but there is still no answer for Cole/ Verlander.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Is this a new TD rule? We now have to read an article before criticising it?

it’s not “new”

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No. They do not need to add pitching. If they do it has to be at the top and pushing Bailey to the pen.

 

They need to develop pitching and at some point that means devoting major league starts to promising pitchers who have shown sustained success at the upper levels of minors.

 

Thorpe needs the opportunity. Graterol needs a spot if he has a good start at AAA. Smeltzer and Dobnak both have a chance to take another step this year.

 

I hope that group combines for at least 40 starts. The Twins needs one to emerge. They can’t emerge or grow if they are in the pen or on the shuttle.

 

No they don’t need to add more though I do acknowledge every team would say yes they need to add a front starter. If that is the bar there is nothing to discuss.

you are correct, the Twins do need starts for development purposes.

 

Pineda is out 39 games, Rich Hill is just as likely to throw zero innings as 75. Even if the Twins do add a starter, one of Graterol, Dobnak, et al, will be the 5th starter all season and Pineda provides another 7 or so starts. There’s 32-37 starts already and someone will get hurt...

 

You don’t need to worry about putting Bailey in the pen to get those young guys starts. God willing, Dobnak or Thorpe pushes Bailey to the pen!

[specialiststeve]

 

Yes. Get Alcantarra from the Marlins or take a flyer on Archer. Either could end up your #3 starter by October if things go well and neither will cost you a ton.

 

I think either would be a very good get but I disagree that they would not cost a ton. It would take some high quality prospects to get either of these guys. 

[specialiststeve]

As much as I love the guys that we have coming up I would hope that we could still sign a vet that would another low cost bridge that could swing to the pen if needed. 

 

Guys that are still out there that may fit the bill of guys that could be bridge guys. Minor league deals that can convert to major league if make the team out of spring training...

 

Matt Harvey....

Jhoulys Chacin....

Shelby Miller....

Or my favorite..

2 year deal like Pineda

Taijuan Walker 

 

I think we could live with on of those as our # 4 until Pineda gets back and if would be pitching well would give our youngsters time to fill in here and there. God knows we will have injuries and they will all likely get their opportunity. 

[Riverbrian]

 

RB, they jump started the process at the 2018 trade deadline. I won't come out and say it's one of the biggest days in our favorite team's history, but if somebody else did I wouldn't argue.

 

I am a big fan of the 2018 deadline because they didn't stand still. They cashed in the expiring contracts and moved in a defined direction. I agree that it was a jump start. They announced to me that this was a new Twins front office and I liked it and I still do. 

 

It's time for the jump that follows that jump start. 

 

The prospects either produce in 2020 or they are traded for someone who will produce. This team ain't the same 2018 team. 

 

 

[tvagle]

 

The answer to the question asked in the Article title is Yes. 

 

The Yes answer is: An upper level talent with at least 2 years of control.

...

So the answer... is YES. High End Talent and at least 2 years of control.

 

After an exhaustive search and filter from Spotrac...I'll leave it up to you to pick who's upper level from these lists of "At Least 2 Years of Control" Over 30 - Under 30 

 

 

As for me here's the targets I'd explore in no particular order

 

OVER 30

Price - if the price is free

Archer - Wes Reclamation

Duffy - Lefty Wes Reclamation

Sunny Day - Sonny Gray

Sale - only if on sale

 

UNDER 30

Clevinger - not gonna happen in the division

Urena - only Marlin already at Odo level (maybe)

Matz - need a lefty eventually

Thor - won't happen until Deadline if ever

Snell - no way in Snell

E Rodriguez - this one won't Bloom

Marquez - Rocky Mountain High

Jon Gray - Rocky Mountain Way

Freeland - A Mile High in Denver

Urias - Let the Royce Lewis to Dodgers thread begin!!

[DocBauer]

As much as I love the guys that we have coming up I would hope that we could still sign a vet that would another low cost bridge that could swing to the pen if needed. 

 

Guys that are still out there that may fit the bill of guys that could be bridge guys. Minor league deals that can convert to major league if make the team out of spring training...

 

Matt Harvey....

Jhoulys Chacin....

Shelby Miller....

Or my favorite..

2 year deal like Pineda

Taijuan Walker 

 

I think we could live with on of those as our # 4 until Pineda gets back and if would be pitching well would give our youngsters time to fill in here and there. God knows we will have injuries and they will all likely get their opportunity.

 

Walker, to me, is one of those low risk high reward fliers that smart teams sign at the end of January.

[Crackedfungo]

Walker, to me, is one of those low risk high reward fliers that smart teams sign at the end of January.

I wanted Walker instead of Bailey for a Pineda like original deal. This is a nice bridge to kids. Not sure why Falvine didn’t prioritize him

[beckmt]

My feeling is that Walker wanted more than clubs were willing to offer or the medicals were iffy.  Still might happen, but don't know where.

[howieramone2]

If the Red Sox decide to come out and play, I like Price for 10-12M per.

[cardsfan]

I agree on Bailey. I think it’s a great signing. I think he’s an upgrade over Perez, and possibly Gibson (I still contend that Gibson is a really good pitcher when he’s healthy and confident, which hasn’t been often).

 

I don’t want him starting a playoff game in Yankee Stadium, though. James Paxton v Homer Bailey in game 3-4 isn’t likely to turn out well for the Twins.

 

Have to remember what we’re up against, here. You’re looking at an offense equally as dangerous (Yankees), with Cole, Severino, Tanaka, Paxton. If you’re running out Dobnak, Bailey, etc, you’re losing that series 9 times out of 10.

Bailey was pitching mostly every 6 days after mid August when his ERA peaked at 5.58. He is one of the worst starting pitchers in the last 5 years. What rose color glasses. Sure he will do ok against KC, Detroit and Baltimore. Who doesn't?

 

Rich Hill top starter in NL? Well at his age of 40 are you expecting a miraculous recovery from elbow surgery? And then another starter will miss several games from a suspension.

 

Trade deadline pitcher? Getting into the postseason you need to win 3 rounds. This SP staff needs some minor leaguers to step up.

[laloesch]

 

May could be considered elite by the end of the year. He really had an untouchable stretch last year and has the stuff to back it up. He touched triple digits, completely changed his pitch mix and where he throws his pitches and it was like a switch was flipped. He has elite stuff. 

I may catch flak for saying this, but i still think he could be one hell of a starter.

[laloesch]

 

After an exhaustive search and filter from Spotrac...I'll leave it up to you to pick who's upper level from these lists of "At Least 2 Years of Control" Over 30 - Under 30 

 

 

 

As for me here's the targets I'd explore in no particular order

 

OVER 30

Price - if the price is free

Archer - Wes Reclamation

Duffy - Lefty Wes Reclamation

Sunny Day - Sonny Gray

Sale - only if on sale

 

UNDER 30

Clevinger - not gonna happen in the division

Urena - only Marlin already at Odo level (maybe)

Matz - need a lefty eventually

Thor - won't happen until Deadline if ever

Snell - no way in Snell

E Rodriguez - this one won't Bloom

Marquez - Rocky Mountain High

Jon Gray - Rocky Mountain Way

Freeland - A Mile High in Denver

Urias - Let the Royce Lewis to Dodgers thread begin!!

Urias would take a kings ransom in Twins prospects.  That said, i would be willing to entertain a Lewis Urias swap. 

[USAFChief]

After an exhaustive search and filter from Spotrac...I'll leave it up to you to pick who's upper level from these lists of "At Least 2 Years of Control" Over 30 - Under 30

 

 

 

As for me here's the targets I'd explore in no particular order

 

OVER 30

Price - if the price is free

Archer - Wes Reclamation

Duffy - Lefty Wes Reclamation

Sunny Day - Sonny Gray

Sale - only if on sale

 

UNDER 30

Clevinger - not gonna happen in the division

Urena - only Marlin already at Odo level (maybe)

Matz - need a lefty eventually

Thor - won't happen until Deadline if ever

Snell - no way in Snell

E Rodriguez - this one won't Bloom

Marquez -

Jon Gray - Rocky Mountain Way

Freeland -

Urias - Let the Royce Lewis to Dodgers thread begin!!

E Rodriguez - this one wont Bloom.

 

Just wanted to say...I've seen some posts in my day, but this. Is. Awesome.

[Riverbrian]

After an exhaustive search and filter from Spotrac...I'll leave it up to you to pick who's upper level from these lists of "At Least 2 Years of Control" Over 30 - Under 30 

 

 

 

As for me here's the targets I'd explore in no particular order

 

OVER 30

Price - if the price is free

Archer - Wes Reclamation

Duffy - Lefty Wes Reclamation

Sunny Day - Sonny Gray

Sale - only if on sale

 

UNDER 30

Clevinger - not gonna happen in the division

Urena - only Marlin already at Odo level (maybe)

Matz - need a lefty eventually

Thor - won't happen until Deadline if ever

Snell - no way in Snell

E Rodriguez - this one won't Bloom

Marquez -

Jon Gray - Rocky Mountain Way

Freeland -

Urias - Let the Royce Lewis to Dodgers thread begin!!

I won't name names. That up to the front office to apply the information they have on those spreadsheets but this is a great post.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's fair, I included the note on babip to demonstrate that the Twin's bullpen was the best in baseball at controlling those things they could control.  That being said, based on your dismissal of the stats I provided alongside your failure to provide any other stats upon which to gauge bullpens, I am at a loss as to how you specifically determine relative bullpen quality, other than gut feeling and bias.  Stating that it's not that important for bullpens to have the best ratio of strikeouts to walks (which is what the Twins had) also befuddles me; it flies in the face of all modern thinking about baseball--avoid balls in play/homers/men on base, which can only be done via a strikeout.

 

Your theory about the Twins and Yankees bullpen also doesn't hold water.  When limited to relievers with more than 10 IP, the Twins had 8 relievers with a FIP- under 90 in the second half, the Yankees had 6.  The Twins had 3 under 60, the Yankees only 2.  The Twins had 9 relievers with a k/bb over 4, the Yankees only 3.  The Twins outperform the Yankees in Siera as well--the only advanced metric they don't is xFIP, where the two bullpens line up pretty evenly.

 

At least compared to the Yankees, it can be easily argued the Twins have both a more elite AND a deeper bullpen.  If you'd like to make the argument that the Yankees are only one team, and your theory that the Twins bullpen is not better than other competitors holds true, then you'll need to provide the stats, otherwise I unequivocally dismiss your claim that the Twins bullpen is not better than other playoff caliber teams; "That which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence"

Again, you're relying on ERA estimators and K-BB%. All teams with good bullpens will probably have pretty good K-BB% ratios and FIPs. I'd argue the teams with the best K% and best hit prevention among those teams would probably be the best pens, even if another team with fewer walks and Ks edges them in K-BB% or FIP.

 

And I think pens do have some control over hits -- look at batting average against, and you'll generally see better pens at the top, and worse at the bottom. The Twins pen was in the middle-bottom half for 2019 by this measure -- I think their strategy of throwing strikes results in more hits, fewer walks, higher BABIP, better ERA estimators, but maybe not the very best pen in real world terms. (Although they've gotten good enough at missing bats recently that it's definitely closed the gap significantly.) It's going to be subjective, of course. If you prefer the ERA estimators and K-BB%, that's subjective too -- and there's nothing wrong with it, we simply disagree. I'm just laying out my position.

 

To repeat, I still think it's a very good pen, but in the context of a postseason series, I'm not sure it's going to be a relative *advantage* over the recent pens of the Yankees and Astros, at least not enough to offset not having an ace starter, which is I believe how this tangent got started.

[ChiefsKid]

To make an argument the Twins don't need additional starting pitching, particularly at the front of the rotation, is putting A LOT of faith in Pineda, Hill, and the crop of young guys.

I don't have such faith.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think this adds up - if Team A has far better relievers #1-#5 than Team B, it would take an extremely bizarre situation for Team B to have equivalent or superior overall numbers. I doubt you could find a single such example in baseball history.

 

I mean, excluding position players, the Twins used 20 different relievers in the 2nd half last year, and 8 of them had ERAs over 5.00. So I'm really struggling to see any objective evidence to support even the most general reading of your post.

First off, we're straying off topic here. Another poster was making the claim the Twins pen could be significantly better than that of the Yankees or Astros, enough to offset not having an ace SP in a postseason series. If you or anyone else wants to say the Twins have a comparable pen to those clubs, I would probably agree. So I'm not really talking about anyone being "far better", if anything that is what I am arguing against. If my language or examples suggested otherwise, I apologize and would like to re-focus on that point.

 

That said, as a general example, the Yankees top 5 relievers entering the postseason last year threw 295.2 innings in the regular season; the rest of their relievers threw 369 innings. Theoretically, I don't think it's controversial to suggest the worst 56% of innings could offset some of the success of the best 44%, in terms of overall season numbers. The Yankees top RP by innings was a long man who was barely a factor in the postseason; their 3rd and #8-11 RPs by innings didn't even make their postseason rosters.

 

Again, I don't know if that's really the case between the Yankees and Twins in 2019. I didn't mean to imply that the Yankees top 5 are that much better than the Twins top 5. More like, their pens are probably comparable, so it's going to be a challenge for the Twins to stake out a big advantage in that area in a postseason series.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Let's hope that Graterol can pull out his best 2006 Liriano impression (minus the blown elbow of course) and then we'll have a solid starting 4 in the playoffs

 

It'd be nice, but Graterol 2020 vs Liriano 2006 are 2 totally different pitchers. One has a good fastball and maginal secondary stuff. The other had a good fastball and the best slider in the league and possibly in the history of baseball until he got hurt. 

[DannySD]

 

Berrios had a horrific August, true, but in 5 September starts averaged over 6 IP/Start, with a 3.79 FIP and 3.97 xFIP, which ranked 25th and 24th respectively in all of baseball.  If you think a top 30 pitcher in baseball shouldn't crack the Twins 4-man postseason rotation, either you're much higher on the Twins rotation than anyone else on the planet, or you have an agenda against Berrios.

 

Be honest: you knew, as we all did, that Berrios was going to lose the Yankees in game 1.

A healthy Rich Hill, a deadline-deal ace, an unsuspended Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi all would have a better chance at beating them. That's all I'm saying. No agenda, and I hope he proves me wrong. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Mike Clevenger, Shane Bieber, Adam Civale - why didn't the Indians go get another starter instead of using these guys?

 

At some point the Twins either need to see if one or two young pitchers has what it takes to succeed at the highest level of baseball or they need to abandon drafting pitchers in the first five rounds and just trade for or sign free agent pitchers. 

 

There will be a really good pitcher available in July. The Twins have the depth to make a trade, if necessary, even if they relinquish more than seems necessary.

 

Thorpe, Dobnak, Graterol, and maybe someone else should be given a shot this April and May. If we have confidence in our bullpen, let these guys throw six innings and analyze their potential for a competitive spot on a winning team.

 

I would like to see one young pitcher added to the rotation each of the next three seasons. 

 

I'm not sure it's that at all. I think when assessing those guys you named, there probably just isn't that #1-2 potential in any of them. Flat out the Twins just missed on pitching in quite a few drafts in a row plus they didn't really develop a whole ton of high end guys. What they did do though was hit on LOTS of position players. There are bunches of young guys that are productive right now in our system.

 

The time is most definitely right to go out and trade from this surplus to strengthen a weakness. I honestly am of the belief that it would be better to use some of your better prospects and go after a true #1-2 guy. The Twins systems literally has quite a darn few pretty good prospects that giving up a Lewis + another top 10 wouldn't kill us. Especially since the core of this team is so young. I also don't really like the hope Robbie Ray is better than a #4 starter, or let's trade for Mathew Boyd type deals.

 

A Syndergaard type, or someone of that nature would be who I'd rather see them target. 

 

Use your high end guys and bring back a high end guy. Preferably one that is a little younger and can be part of the core of guys we have locked up here for the next 3-5 years. 

[tony&rodney]

 

I'm not sure it's that at all. I think when assessing those guys you named, there probably just isn't that #1-2 potential in any of them. Flat out the Twins just missed on pitching in quite a few drafts in a row plus they didn't really develop a whole ton of high end guys. What they did do though was hit on LOTS of position players. There are bunches of young guys that are productive right now in our system.

 

The time is most definitely right to go out and trade from this surplus to strengthen a weakness. I honestly am of the belief that it would be better to use some of your better prospects and go after a true #1-2 guy. The Twins systems literally has quite a darn few pretty good prospects that giving up a Lewis + another top 10 wouldn't kill us. Especially since the core of this team is so young. I also don't really like the hope Robbie Ray is better than a #4 starter, or let's trade for Mathew Boyd type deals.

 

A Syndergaard type, or someone of that nature would be who I'd rather see them target. 

 

Use your high end guys and bring back a high end guy. Preferably one that is a little younger and can be part of the core of guys we have locked up here for the next 3-5 years. 

 

It is not that I do not agree with your assessment that the Twins could trade any or all of the prospects, it's that there doesn't seem to be any actual proposals to bring in an ace and that seems understandable because teams are holding on to what they have right now. A Syndergaard is not available and it will almost certainly be a few months before teams re-assess their direction. 

Like many, I am willing to be surprised by an acquisition of Gray, Syndergaard, Snell, Castillo, or others.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Again, you're relying on ERA estimators and K-BB%. All teams with good bullpens will probably have pretty good K-BB% ratios and FIPs. I'd argue the teams with the best K% and best hit prevention among those teams would probably be the best pens, even if another team with fewer walks and Ks edges them in K-BB% or FIP.

 

And I think pens do have some control over hits -- look at batting average against, and you'll generally see better pens at the top, and worse at the bottom. The Twins pen was in the middle-bottom half for 2019 by this measure -- I think their strategy of throwing strikes results in more hits, fewer walks, higher BABIP, better ERA estimators, but maybe not the very best pen in real world terms. (Although they've gotten good enough at missing bats recently that it's definitely closed the gap significantly.) It's going to be subjective, of course. If you prefer the ERA estimators and K-BB%, that's subjective too -- and there's nothing wrong with it, we simply disagree. I'm just laying out my position.

 

To repeat, I still think it's a very good pen, but in the context of a postseason series, I'm not sure it's going to be a relative *advantage* over the recent pens of the Yankees and Astros, at least not enough to offset not having an ace starter, which is I believe how this tangent got started.

 

If all teams with good bullpens have good k/bb ratios and ERA estimators, doesn't it follow that those are therefore good indicators that a bullpen is good?  After all, would we ever look at a bullpen with bad k/bb ratios or ERA estimators, and deem it a good bullpen?  And if they are good indicators of a bullpen's quality, wouldn't it be reasonable to declare that a team which performs better in these metrics than another team who also performs well, but not as well, has a superior bullpen?  I agree they don't tell the whole picture, but that being said, when one team is invariably first, at a certain point that starts to matter.

 

Furthermore, I disagree that batting average against is a particularly useful standalone metric, as it cannot rule out the effects of defense, which the Twins were strongly below average at, particularly at 2nd, 3rd, and short; in the second half you can add center field to that list too.  This story is told by the fact that the Twins had the 6th worst BAA in the second half, but the worst BAABIP.  While you're correct that the Twins threw more strikes in the second half (44.1% zone percentage) than any other team, they actually had the 7th lowest zone contact percentage, because they had the 5th highest swinging strike rate--Twins relievers stayed in the zone because they could avoid contact and get swinging strikes.  By-the-by, that swinging strike rate of 13.1% was better than either the Astros OR the Yankees.

 

In short, as best as I can tell, the only statistical metric you actually want to use to gauge bullpens' relative value is batting average against, which, given the fielding dependent nature of that metric, seems at best flawed.  Outside of that, your dismissal of the Twins bullpen as potentially being an advantage over Houston or New York seems to come from bias and assumption.