Front Page: Top 5 Third Basemen for the Twins to Target

[Nash Walker]

If the Twins are intent on moving Miguel Sanó to first base to improve the defense, here are five of the best options to fill in at third base. The scoring system is on a 1-10 scale (1 being not favorable to the Twins, 10 being very favorable to the Twins) and are scored for availability, commitment cost (cash), prospect cost, and both offensive and defensive impact.5. Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

 

Longoria has three years and $53 million left on the six-year, $100 million deal he signed with Tampa Bay in 2016. The three-time All-Star has hit .249/.303/.424 (96 OPS+) since being traded to the Giants.

 

Since 2017, Longoria has started the fifth most games at third base (379), but has saved the third most runs (25). He continues to be a strong defender entering his age-34 season.

 

Availability: 4

Commitment cost: 2

Prospect cost: 4

Offensive impact: 2

Defensive impact: 7

Twins Score: 19

 

4. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

 

It seems to be a matter of when, not if, Arenado will be moved. He signed an eight-year, $260 million extension with Colorado last winter but the deal includes an opt-out clause after the 2021 season. Arenado also has the right to refuse a deal to Minnesota under his full no-trade clause.

 

The impact of Arenado would be massive. He is a seven-time Gold Glove winner, saving 117 runs with a career UZR of 47.9. He also hit .315/.379/.583 with 41 home runs and 31 doubles in 2019.

 

Availability: 3

Commitment cost: 2

Prospect cost: 2

Offensive impact: 8

Defensive impact: 10

Twins Score: 25

 

3. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

 

Seager’s name has been tossed around this offseason as he enters year six of his seven-year, $100 million contract. Seager is slated to make $19.5 million in 2020 and $18.5 million in 2021 with a club option for $15 million in 2022. If traded, that club option becomes a player option.

 

Seager hit .239/.321/.468 (112 OPS+) with 23 homers in 106 games last year. Seager has hit 20 or more home runs in each of the last eight seasons. He had -1 DRS and a 6.9 UZR in 2019 and has been an average defensive third baseman for nearly his entire career.

 

Availability: 8

Commitment cost: 4

Prospect cost: 4

Offensive impact: 5

Defensive impact: 5

Twins Score: 26

 

2. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

 

The Cubs have been in “fervent pursuit” of trades this winter, but are seemingly waiting for the results of the Bryant grievance. The ruling will decide whether Bryant will have one or two more seasons until free agency. This is a huge factor in his trade value.

 

Bryant is projected to make $18.5 million in his third year of arbitration after hitting .282/.382/.521 with 31 home runs and 35 doubles in 147 games last year. The Twins’ interest may hinge on if they think Bryant can improve their infield defense. He posted -7 DRS and a -1.4 UZR in 2019. Still, his bat is a superpower.

 

Availability: 6

Commitment cost: 7

Prospect cost: 3

Offensive impact: 8

Defensive impact: 4

Twins Score: 28

 

1. Josh Donaldson, Free Agent

 

Donaldson is playing a dangerous waiting game and the Twins are looking into other options. Donaldson hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs for the Braves last year. He saved 15 runs defensively and ranks third since 2016 in DRS at third base. He reportedly sees some appeal in playing for Rocco Baldelli and against the American League Central:

 

 

Donaldson requires only money (and a draft pick), is at least a little interested in playing in Minnesota, and would transform the infield defense while turning the lineup into the scariest in baseball.

 

Availability: 7

Commitment cost: 5

Prospect cost: 10

Impact on offense: 8

Impact on defense: 8

Twins Score: 38

 

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[tony&rodney]

A nice little piece of writing that details in a different fashion why the Twins should sign Donaldson if they are after a 3B. Additionally, a great signing of Sano and agreements with everyone except Berrios, and there may be negotiations ongoing there. Looks like the Twins came in below forecasts on arb guesses as well, which means  ... throw a little pile towards JD. 

[Thrylos]

The third baseman whom they signed to an extension seems to be missing for some reason....

 

Oh well...

[Shaitan]

 

The third baseman whom they signed to an extension seems to be missing for some reason....

 

Oh well...

He can play RF when they trade Rosario for an ace

[Otwins]

Sano

Available - 10

Commitment -8

Prospect Cost-10

Offensive Impact -7

Defensive Impact - 2

 

Total -37

 

Almost same score as Donaldson

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

The third baseman whom they signed to an extension seems to be missing for some reason....

 

Oh well...

What?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Sano

Available - 10

Commitment -8

Prospect Cost-10

Offensive Impact -7

Defensive Impact - 2

 

Total -37

 

Almost same score as Donaldson

But who's on first?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

The third baseman whom they signed to an extension seems to be missing for some reason....

 

Oh well...

What do you mean Sano is missing?

[Mr. Brooks]

The third baseman whom they signed to an extension seems to be missing for some reason....

 

Oh well...

I've been guilty of skimming some articles in my time. But this is literally the opening line of the article:

 

"If the Twins are intent on moving Miguel Sanó to first base to improve the defense, here are five of the best options to fill in at third base."

[rv78]

Of the 5 listed I'd pass on Longoria and Seager. Arenado will never come to Minnesota and if the Twins are serious about improving the defense Bryant isn't really much of an upgrade over Sano. That leaves 1 player listed, Donaldson and 2 things are happening there, either the Twins won't give in and pay him what he wants or he is just using the Twins to leverage the Braves into paying him more which means he really doesn't want to come to Minnesota either.

I'm more in favor of keeping Sano at 3B and signing a 1 year guy like Moreland to play 1B. Next year after Cruz departs move Sano to DH, and you'll know by the end of 2020 if a AAA prospect like Kirolloff or Raley or Lewis or Rooker can fill a spot in the infield be it 1B or 3B. There is always the possibility of Garver moving to 1B and a Jeffers or Rortvedt can take over at C.

[jorgenswest]

If the goal is to move the needle on infield defense that isn’t going to happen without addressing the middle infield. Adding a 3B closes the door of moving Polanco or Arraez to 3B where below average defense isn’t as exposed. It closes the door on seeing if Lewis can be a solution.

[The Wise One]

 

But who's on first?

because is in CF.

[Battle ur tail off]

I flat out just don't think it's really worth trading anyone to acquire a 3B or 1B unless they are extremely good. 

 

If it were me, at this point, if they don't sign Donaldson, I'd just have an open competition for a spot at either 1B and let Rooker, Kiriloff, or 3B and let Lewis, maybe Blankenhorn battle it out. I'd get Sano a ton of reps at 1B as well. 

 

I just feel like this way would provide as good or better results than signing a washup type to play 1B. Garver can get some games at 1B there too as well as Gonzalez, etc. 

 

I'm always of the belief if you aren't willing to bring in high end guys to play, then go with your system players rather than give someone that's decent not good a 2 year deal etc and waste money for a guy that has a decent chance of being DFAed before that contract is even up. 

 

 

 

[Elliot]

We have not seen Polanco at 3rd. May be because management has, and it isn’t a pretty picture. Arraez has played a few innings there and he seemed to hold his own. That would allow a Polanco move to 2nd; a move which worked out quite well with Dozier. That would allow the search to center on a defensive shortstop.

If the Twins are serious about improving their infield defense, moving Sano to first is a good first step. However; an infield defense centered around a shortstop that is at or near the bottom of just about every means of measuring is not a good plan.

[terrydactyls]

If the Twins want to move Sano to 1B, I would rather see them go after Trevor Storey and strengthen the SS position. Polanco and Arraez get 2B and 3B (and I don't care who plays where). Or even better, trade Rosario, Polanco, Rooker, Enlow, and Thorpe for Storey and either Jon Gray or Marquez German. And still sign Donaldson.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Great analysis. If Josh will sign for $110 million for 4 years let's pull the trigger and get it done. 

[Steve J]

Bryant is still under arbitration control.  There is no way he has such a low acquisition cost.  

[ChrisKnutson]

Given how this offseason has gone, I’d honestly be ok with either Seager or Longoria. The offseason would still be a failure, but at least rookies like Raley and Rooker wouldn’t be handed a starting position and Marwin would get to stay in a utility role.

[Nash Walker]

Bryant is still under arbitration control.  There is no way he has such a low acquisition cost.

 

Bryant’s prospect cost was scored as a 3. I explained that 1 means it isn’t favorable to the Twins and 10 is favorable to the Twins. 3 would mean he will cost a considerable amount in trade capital.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm in agreement with those of the opinion that unless you bring in someone who will have a major impact...let your young talent battle it out.  I'm also in complete agreement that if the "goal" is to improve infield defense, you have to address that UP THE MIDDLE.  The Twins missed out on a SS who has a great glove and a semi-decent bat in Jose Iglesias.  The guy to make a serious inquirey into is Trevor Story.  The only way you do that is by having honest internal discussions about the future infield alignment.  Polanco just started in the All Star game for the A.L.  But he's not a great defensive SS.  He will probably never start another All Star game for the A.L. ever with the emergence of Gleyber Torres.  The Twins have Royce Lewis and Wander Javier in the system as future possible SS's.  How likely are both to stick at SS and how long will it take them to get to the majors ?  Lewis may end up somewhere other than SS and that may not be a bad thing.  He could be a Gold Glove CF'er depending on what happens with Buxton.  Javier was once a top prospect and has had a nightmarish last two years.  Even if he crushes it this year, he's not a factor until 2022 at the earliest.  Trevor Story is simply one of the best 5 SS's in the league.  He's 27 years old.  he's an IMPACT guy.  He would cost you prospects but he's also someone you could build around for many years.  And he doesn't just hit at Coors Field.  The Rockies TOP prospect is SS Brendon Rogers.  You wouldn't have to give up Polanco to get Story.  There are some who don't think arraez could be an average 3B-man.  I saw him start a triple play last year from 3B with a sensational play.  He may never be a Gold Glover, but he could handle it.  He probably didn't play much 3B in the minors because 2B and SS are premium positions.  Besides, what position a guy plays is sometimes a mystery.  The Phillies had Ryne Sandberg playing 3B in the minors, the Cubs trade for him, shift him to 2B and he won several Gold Gloves and was a Hall of Famer.  Arraez could handle 3B.  If Josh Donaldson DOESN'T happen, put a package together for Story and get the ball rolling.  The Twins would never regret it.   

[cardsfan]

Given how this offseason has gone, I’d honestly be ok with either Seager or Longoria. The offseason would still be a failure, but at least rookies like Raley and Rooker wouldn’t be handed a starting position and Marwin would get to stay in a utility role.

Longoria has disappointed for years now. Would he hit more HRs against AL Central pitchers?

[darin617]

Where is my top 5 1st baseman list?

[cardsfan]

Donaldson besides being 34 had sore calves last year in late April. Here some team is going to commit $100 million when he's had 2 years dealing with both calves.

 

If he would hit like he did in 2019 for 4 years would be great. But, he should have some age slowdown. Buyer beware though.

[Doctor Gast]

Seems like I`m always beating the same drum. I`d like to explore more the SS position that`s where I think we need the most help (if we don`t sign Donaldson). Before Polanco came up, it was thought he`d play 2B because of his defense & we had a SS. Like Elliot stated & I`ve stated before Polanco could make that transition like Dozier & become a gold glove at 2B. I`ve always like Story SS & Gray SP from Colorado I`d love to see that trade although I don`t think they will trade until at deadline. But I`d like also to see what other options at SS

[chinmusic]

 

He can play RF when they trade Rosario for an ace

That's a lot of sarcasm in 11 words..lol

[mikelink45]

I continue to advocate for rookies battling for 1B and keeping Sano at 3B.  I do  not see any of these players being an upgrade for the team and neither is Mitch Moreland.  Since we decided not to keep Cron who I thought did a good job lets look at the minor leagues.  We keep hearing about all the great players in the minors and last year it was Arraez who was not even listed as a top prospect who came in and shined.  Lets try that again with some of those top ranked players.

 

And I will throw in Graterol with that same thought. 

[rv78]

I'll say it again. If the Twins are serious about improving the infield defense moving Sano to 1B isn't going to cut it. I can just envision him running to the fence chasing every errant throw he misses way way way too often. I believe Ortiz was a 1st baseman with the Twins and when he went to Boston he quickly became a DH for the same reason why Sano will never stick at 1B either. So why move him there in the first place? I'm open to trying Arraez at 3B, moving Polanco to 2B, and getting a good defensive SS. But that doesn't solve the 1B issue. I think it is going to take another season to resolve these issues. Nelson Cruz is the log-jam at DH forcing the Twins to play Sano in the field. Cruz is a nice log-jam but he creates a defensive problem.

[tony&rodney]

Donaldson's sore calves would really look good hitting second.

[Riverbrian]

 

If the goal is to move the needle on infield defense that isn’t going to happen without addressing the middle infield. Adding a 3B closes the door of moving Polanco or Arraez to 3B where below average defense isn’t as exposed. It closes the door on seeing if Lewis can be a solution.

 

This is exactly right. 

 

If the goal is to improve infield defense? Don't mess around, improve it. Go right to the most defensively important infield position (SS) and improve that position. You don't focus on the edges. 

 

The real reason you sign Donaldson is because he carries a special bat.  Being a good defender is a really nice bonus but your infield defensive improvement isn't big enough attacking the corners. It's the Donaldson bat that demands the AAV and where he really moves the Twins needle. 

 

[drivlikejehu]

With shifting, high fastballs, and high K rates, infield defense has never been less important in the history of baseball.