Front Page: Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2020: Part 4 (1-5)

[Nick Nelson]

 

The ranking of a team's assets is relative to a particular trade partner and their needs.

For example:  The Mets allegedly wanted Buxton for Syndergaard straight up.  Would they have traded Syndergaard for Berrios straight up?  I doubt it.

 

Also, for a team that wants to save some money and rebuild, someone like Kirilloff and Lewis is much more valuable than someone like Kepler or Polanco.

 

Like hitting and pitching, the greatest importance of value is situational

Yep, this is what I was getting in the third bullet point at the top, and why it's not exactly accurate to call this exercise a ranking of trade value. 

 

 

Agree.  A pitcher like Berrios - with what he's already accomplished at the age of 26.  I'd put him at the top of this ranking.  But I love Nick's work.

Very fair. I thought hard about it. Definitely reasonable to say Berrios is more irreplaceable at this moment. Ultimately, it came down to controlling Polanco and Kepler throughout their entire primes, while Berrios is on track to hit free agency right in the middle of his, at age 28. As things stand, Polanco can literally impact twice as many seasons for the Twins as Berrios.

I suspect JB will sign an extension in spring training and the point will become moot.

 

 

 

 

[Twodogs]

I mean within reason. Polanco was the worst infielder in baseball by Statcast numbers and it's backed up by his second most errors in baseball. It can't be understated just how much of a butcher he was in the field last season, but that shows how valuable the rest of his game is.

Yes within reason. I mean you can't put Nelson Cruz in the infield. But yeah, Polanco is bad, but with the way they do things now it's just not as important.

[Oxtung]

 

Last year 87 hitters had a better wRC+ than Rosario, including such luminaries as Domingo Santana, Kole Calhoun, Brian Anderson, and Danny Santana.  The 3 year stats you shared above show an erosion in his production, which would be even more pronounced were it not for last year's power explosion (61 players had a SLG of .500 or better in 2019, compared to 26 in 2018 and 41 in 2017); in fact, Eddie's gone from 34th in SLG in 2017 to 41st in 2018, and finally, 61st in 2019.

 

As you also showed in your 3 year rundown, Eddie's OBP is rapidly approaching hazmat levels--only 7 qualified players had a worse OBP than Eddie last year; even the hollow shell of Albert Pujols had a better OBP.  Even in Eddie's good years of 2017 and 2018, he was 88th and 96th respectively in OBP.  This is directly related to Eddie's insistence on swinging more often (swing rate of 59.1% in 2019, up from 54.9% in 2017), especially at pitches out of the zone; Eddie swung at 46.3% of pitches out of the zone in 2019 (compared to 37.6% in 2017), which was 4th worst in baseball.

 

So what we have is a player who is shedding power (relative to the league), getting on base at replecement player levels, demonstrating nearly league-worst discipline, and becoming a defensive liability at the same time he approaches 30 and becomes vastly more expensive, all while playing in the Twins' position of greatest organizational strength.

 

As this series (somewhat) approximates a trade value ranking, I would not be shocked at all to find that other MLB organizations view Rosario as at best the 5th most attractive outfielder in the Twins system, and quite possibly as low as 7.

Great response. I hadn't realized how good the league was hitting the last few years. If Rosario has a similar year in 2020 and one of Cave, Wade, Larnach or Kirilloff have a big year I wouldn't be surprised if Rosario is non-tendered. Why pay ~$15M when you can get very similar production for $0.5?

[Richard Swerdlick]

Great job. Thank you .

[Cody Pirkl]

 

So you want a team to trade for him with the price tag of a star shortstop to move him to 2nd base? The value between that would be huge. Doubt you could find a team that foolish.

I don't want a team to trade for him at all, actually. I moreso just pointed out his defense because if a team like say the Red Sox traded for Polanco, they'd be able to look at his metrics and know that they don't need to move Xander Boegarts off SS for him. If Polanco was a second baseman, he'd likely have more defensive value and would still be a premier player at his position. There probably aren't a ton of teams that would value him as a shortstop longterm.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

So then move him to another position or trade him since he has such a "high value" now. 

They may move him to another position eventually but we have literally nobody else to play SS right now unless Adrianza becomes a full timer.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Yes within reason. I mean you can't put Nelson Cruz in the infield. But yeah, Polanco is bad, but with the way they do things now it's just not as important.

That's why he had a positive defensive runs saved this year for the first time since his debut, the shift. That's the metric that's likely effected by it. Shifting doesn't appear to help OAA and it definitely doesn't help range which you see in his terrible UZR. They can hide him to an extent, but he's still going to make his fair share of mistakes.

[RDLARK]

Generally, I think this list overvalues prospects and undervalues MLB contributors. In the preamble, you state that this is not intended to be the value these players hold in trade, but the value they have for the Twins. Given that the Twins are positioned to contend for a WS title right now, I don't see how prospects who are a year or two away from being every day MLB players are thought to be more valuable assets than established, high-upside MLB players. 

 

I'd move guys like Sano, Buxton, and Rosario up and some of the prospects down. Overall, I think you have the right guys on the list, just a difference of opinion regarding what constitutes "valuable" to a team that is positioned where the Twins are right now.

[amjgt]

Nick,

 

If, let's say, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson today for 4/100, where would you put him on this list?

 

Now, how about Gray and Arenado under their existing deals?

[Minny505]

"Polanco doesn't play shortstop all that well but he can handle it." Barely.

 

Polanco is quite possibly the worst starting SS on defense in MLB. He ranks dead last among SS in the percent of plays that he makes. He is somewhere between bad and brutal.

 

We could add someone like Galvis of Iglesias and improve the team by 2 wins on defense...at minimum.

 

Whatever you think of Sano's defense at 3B, he's at least competent compared to his peers, ranking at somewhere in the vicinity of below average. 

 

Polanco is far and away our biggest liability on the dirt. As stated by other commenters here, the problem is that no one has enough offense to make up the difference that Polanco brings.

Move Polanco to 3B though and he may become an MVP candidate. 

[Det95Twins]

Jeffers is the only player on the list I might quibble about.  The order seems way out of whack to me, though.  I'd go:

 

1.  Buxton--if this guy ever stays healthy and plays up to his ability, he is a potential MVP and a definite game changer.

2.  Sano--prodigious power and the future DH once Cruz retires.

3.  Berrios--only pitcher with close to ACE stuff.

4.  Cruz--I think his presence and Baldelli's led to the Twins turnaround last year.

5.  Kepler--good contract, huge upside, good defense

6.  Garver--good upside, made big strides last year defensively, great power

7.  Lewis--great potential, future SS

8.  Polanco--unlikely to get better, good offensively, bad defense and should be moved to 2B, great contract

9.  Rogers--anchors the BP

10.  Odorizzi--solid #3 SP

11.  Pineda--could be the #2 SP

12.  Rosario--would be higher if he used his head more in LF and on the bases

13.  Graterol--electric stuff but hasn't translated to success in the MLB yet

14.  Kirilloff--looks like a future solid contributor

15.  Larnach--great potential.  

16.  Balazovic--good stuff

17.  Arraez--looks like a good hitter but awful defensively and very little power

18.  Dhuran--hope his stuff translates to MLB

19.  Duffey--solid RP

20.  Jeffers--hope he proves out (I'd put Gordon or Raley here)

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I don't want a team to trade for him at all, actually. I moreso just pointed out his defense because if a team like say the Red Sox traded for Polanco, they'd be able to look at his metrics and know that they don't need to move Xander Boegarts off SS for him. If Polanco was a second baseman, he'd likely have more defensive value and would still be a premier player at his position. There probably aren't a ton of teams that would value him as a shortstop longterm.

 

It could be argued Polanco would actually be more valuable at second than at short.  Last year 15 players qualified at short with a wRC+ of 100 or more, compared to only 10 at second (which is somewhat misleading as both Torres and LeMahieu appear on that list).  Polanco's 4 WAR is more likely to be an upgrade/bigger upgrade at second than at short.  Unfortunately, the Twins can't take advantage of this, due to not having an in-house option at short, and the need to keep Arraez at second.

[jorgenswest]

Berrios is the most critical to get an extension. He has to be number 1. No loss would hurt the Twins more this year and probably the next two.

 

Why not double his projected pay the next two years and then give him market rate for three more? Doesn’t Berrios take that deal? It is so much more guaranteed money in the next three years and every arm is fragile looking that far out.

 

I really would like them to aggressively get extensions on Berrios, Sano and Buxton. With those extensions they join Kepler and Polanco as a core of valuable assets, It can be done. Every deal doesn’t have to be a team friendly deal. Pay up with a big boost this year to entice them. They aren’t spending the money anywhere else.

[birddog]

Great article and fun reading. So we don't all agree with the order you proposed? Imagine how difficult it has to be to swing a trade with another team who may or may not agree on the value of your players or theirs. Needs tend to swing values in a big way. 

 

The good news is the present looks good for the Twins and the future appears to be highly rated as well. You can see why teams don't like to go to arbitration with players as they need to accentuate the negative for those players, just like most of us are doing with our top 20. With the good comes the bad. I pray Buxton is #1 next year on this list, for if he is I am looking forward to the healthy season he will have.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Sano with his now 4 year deal in hand has now vaulted up this list. I'd put him in a tie for 3rd with Polanco right behind Berrios and Kepler.

 

With his ability to dominate a game with his bat it could even be argued that he's now our #1 asset. Pitchers don't fear either Kepler or Polanco. I believe they do when it comes to Sano. Great extension by Falvey.