Front Page: Potential Silver Lining of an Apparently Bad Offseason for the Minnesota Twins

[Thiéres Rabelo]

This offseason has been an overall frustrating experience for Twins fans so far. The impact-pitching search failed in theory and not many people feel like this team is a lot stronger than last year. However, this front office could be working on a different, smarter and unnoticed solution.With the rather unaggressive approach Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this offseason, it might as well be a part of a much greater long-term project. What if the alternative here is soon becoming as dominant over a long stretch as the Dodgers have been?

 

There are undeniable similarities between what the current Twins front office has been doing in the past three years and what Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has done, both with the Rays between 2008-14, and with Los Angeles in the last five seasons.

 

One thing that makes Friedman a good comparison for “Falvine” is that he managed to find success without using all the Dodgers’ big market money. Here are the three main pillars from Friedman’s system and similarities to the current Twins’ approach.

 

Player development

Last year, the Dodgers secured their seventh consecutive NL West title. They didn't do it by signing big free agents. No team in baseball has a more successful core built by homegrown players.

 

Here’s a list of some of the current players either drafted and developed by the club or signed internationally: Cody Bellinger, Cleyton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. At the same time, Los Angeles still has the third-best farm system in the league. They are constantly adding and properly developing talent.

 

In the last postseason, the Dodgers had the highest number of homegrown talents, with 15 of their 25 players, worth 34.4 Wins Above Replacement, also the highest among the ten teams in the postseason. The second team on both of those categories are the Twins, with 13 homegrown players, worth 28.4 WAR (you can check the full list here).

 

Trading for under the radar talent

One other feature that Friedman has been bringing to the table for his teams is the ability to make very smart trades, supplying the farm. Here are some examples:

• In 2012, while still with the Rays, he traded veterans Wade Davis and James Shields to Kansas City in exchange for prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.
• In 2018, the Dodgers sent veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, Jeter Downs, and Josiah Gray. While Bailey was immediately released, Gray and Downs are currently the club's #4 and #5 prospects.

Nate Palmer wrote a great article revisiting the great deals Minnesota made in 2018, which are just a few examples of how smart the Twins have been when making trades under this current regime. A lot of those prospects still need to materialize, but the Twins can either develop those players or use them as valuable trade pieces — like the Dodgers constantly do at the trade deadline.

 

Finding good deals in free agency and waivers

This last one may not be the best comparison now, since signing big free agents is not nearly a problem for the Dodgers. But while still in Tampa and with very limited money, Friedman managed to pick up some nice bargains at free agency, like Casey Kotchman in 2011, Jeff Keppinger and Fernando Rodney in 2012, and James Loney in 2013, all of who were one-year deals worth $2 million or less.

 

Falvey and Levine have done the same in Minnesota. While there haven't been big splashes yet, they have landed great, team-friendly deals. Most noticeably, Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Sergio Romo, which proved very successful.

 

Even though the 2018 season didn’t pan out very well, they also had a very productive offseason, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke and Addison Reed. Those players had good track records and were very sensible signings at the time.

 

Recently, Matthew Taylor showed us how dangerous it can be to bet your future to seek a World Series title, using the Kansas City Royals example. Perhaps signing Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to one-year deals will not put the Twins closer to a ring this year, but I’m fine with that if it will bring the Twins closer to a dominance similar to the one the Dodgers have in the west.

 

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[Cody Pirkl]

There were good moves made this offseason but the bottom line is that even the front office has admitted to wishing they could walk back their promises. Regardless of circumstances, when statements are made about stiking when the window opens fans are going to be disappointed in an offseason like this. Fans got the idea that we had become a team that would get that big free agent and take that big leap. This offseason, despite the wide range of opportunities, showed that isn't the case.

 

 

It's a solid team, yes. We should contend again and I feel confident that we win the central again, but I'm still sitting in in the C-/D+ range. Especially if we open with Marwin pivoting from our ever valuable utilityman to a below average 1B, I could see that grade falling for me. We can keep developing guys but even the Astros had to acquire big guns from outside the organization to win big despite their unbelievable core. We still have time to do this on the trade market, but I wonder if the front office will just clutch their pearls in the minors. If we're done making moves and the White Sox can somehow take the division, I say good for them. At least they're taking risks.

[Old Twins Cap]

It's not ever going to be easy to get back to the World Series. A lot of things have to align, not just planets.

 

When the last time Yankees made it?

 

So, I get the disappointment of fans, we want a great team to root for. Personally, I think we have one now, and, importantly, back on the farm, the kind of stock that can maintain competitiveness over the long term.

 

KC had their day in the sun and got it done, which was great for baseball. But, look how far they have fallen. Is that what fans are wanting?

[terrydactyls]

It's not ever going to be easy to get back to the World Series. A lot of things have to align, not just planets.

 

When the last time Yankees made it?

 

So, I get the disappointment of fans, we want a great team to root for. Personally, I think we have one now, and, importantly, back on the farm, the kind of stock that can maintain competitiveness over the long term.

 

KC had their day in the sun and got it done, which was great for baseball. But, look how far they have fallen. Is that what fans are wanting?

Food for Thought...

 

Over the last decade, the top 10 spenders in free agency handed out 8.347 billion dollars and have a total of 3 World Series titles to show for it. That's one title for every 2.782 billion dollars spent. Houston won once and only spent 329 million over the entire decade. Big spending (IMHO) does not appear to be the roadmap to World Series titles.

[gunnarthor]

Another PR piece from TD? How many do you have? I really hope you're getting some kick back from the Twins. Maybe that's where the payroll is going. 

 

Anyhow, the linked article about the trade "wins" is ridiculous and the new FO has made one good trade in three + years (Odorizzi) and one good FA signing (Cruz) if you define "good" as averaging at least 2 WAR/season. If you just want one simple 2 WAR season, you could add Castro to the list.

 

The Twins had a massive build up of talent before this new FO got here and so far they have failed to augment that talent.

[USAFChief]

It's not ever going to be easy to get back to the World Series. A lot of things have to align, not just planets.

 

When the last time Yankees made it?

 

So, I get the disappointment of fans, we want a great team to root for. Personally, I think we have one now, and, importantly, back on the farm, the kind of stock that can maintain competitiveness over the long term.

 

KC had their day in the sun and got it done, which was great for baseball. But, look how far they have fallen. Is that what fans are wanting?

the Twins just recently went through a 6 yr period with 99, 96, 96, 92, 79, and 103 losses WITHOUT a WS run.

 

The back to back WS appearances by KC are not because they "sold the farm" or traded away their future. Nor is their current situation a result of that.

 

This "look at KC" rationale is groundless.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Dodgers also gave Kershaw a generous lifetime contract before he hit free agency, complete with an opt-out invitation to renegotiate down the line. You really think this front office is going to do that with their young stars? Not a rhetorical question any more. My answer is I highly, highly doubt it.

[lukeduke1980]

 

 

KC had their day in the sun and got it done, which was great for baseball. But, look how far they have fallen. Is that what fans are wanting?

KC had impact pitching during their peak.  Impact bullpen pitching of course.  Twins have a good bullpen, but not dominant.  

 

To me, as a few others have suggested, that's a way to salvage the offseason by trading for a couple more bullpen pieces.  A Wade Davis or Jake McGee might cost nothing and benefit from getting out of Colorado.  If Hader is being dangled, make an offer.  

 

The bullpen is good.  But a dominant one could advance in October.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I can’t see any silver lining of this off season. Especially since it looks less and less likely that the Twins will agree to an extension with our best starting pitcher in José Berríos. The longer this drags out the higher the cost will be to keep him a Twin. And it might be the case that Berríos doesn’t want to stay a Twin in the future considering the Twins FO’s bungling of free agency and trades. If Berríos leaves that will be a black mark on the Twins organization and any “silver lining” will be non existent if that happens.

[MMMordabito]

Comparing the Dodgers to the Twins by bringing up the similarities while just completely ignoring the differences is just silly. If the FO signs Berrios to a long term deal that buys out a few years of free agency, I might read this again and actually take it seriously.

[clutterheart]

Another PR piece from TD? How many do you have? I really hope you're getting some kick back from the Twins. Maybe that's where the payroll is going. 

 

 

Chasing access is a powerful lure. Can't have press passes, interviews and getting "VIPs" to show up at events without puff peices.

[twins_89]

I can't see how any fans think the current team is stronger than last season. Without any more additions, I think it highly likely the Twins are a bit worse. If neither Bailey or Hill pan out (a very real possibility), then the team could be significantly worse.

[nicksaviking]

Another similarity; the Dodgers haven’t won the WS in 30 years either. The Dodgers have been consistently good for quite awhile, but I’ll guess their fans are equally as frustrated with their FO for never making that big move to put them over the top.

[ChiefsKid]

The idea that the Twins not making any moves now to significantly improve their chances of winning a WS in 2020 has any impact on their ability to make moves in the 2022 offseason to improve their chances at winning a WS in 2023 is the single most frustrating mindset of stomaching this giant disappointment of an offseason.

 

In my eyes, there is absolutely no legitimate excuse for the Twins going into 2020 with a sub-par starting rotation. Also, we still don't have a first baseman, mind you. And hoping Josh Donaldson would magically take 80% of what he's going to get is not an excuse for that, either.

 

Don't tell me they cant improve the 2020 team without sacrificing the entire future of the franchise beyond a 4 year, $85M deal for Ryu. I just don't buy it.

[TheMatt]

I can totally see the Twins taking on a salary dump for prospects like the Bailey trade. Said no one ever.

[Squirrel]

Another PR piece from TD? How many do you have? I really hope you're getting some kick back from the Twins. Maybe that's where the payroll is going. 

 

Chasing access is a powerful lure. Can't have press passes, interviews and getting "VIPs" to show up at events without puff peices.

If you want to complain about TD, and the types of stories being presented, please do ... but do it here:

http://twinsdaily.com/forum/13-questions-about-minncentric/

 

Or contact one of the owners.

 

But please be respectful to the contributing writers and comment on what they have taken time to present.

[bobs]

  Winning a WS is exceedingly difficult for any market and even more difficult for a mid-market like the TC.  I'm 52.  It's been 29 years since the Twins won it.  I watched every second of '87 and '91.  It's been 30 years for a market like the Dodgers.  It's tough.  "World Series or Bust" is a dangerous mindset.

  I thoroughly enjoyed the 2000's and sharing those teams and players with my two sons.  I agree that the FO can, and still should, make a move to help in 2020 w/o sacrificing future.  I think they tried, but did it responsibly.  

  Bottom line is this.  With the current makeup of the 40-man and with how well-stocked the farm system seems to be, we should be excited about having good baseball at Target Field for the next decade, not wringing our hands over 30+ year old FAs that are far overpriced and will likely be a payroll liability down the road.  If things align or a move is made that results in a WS title, that would be phenomenal.  Either way, I'm going to enjoy this ride.

  Relax people.  Sit back and enjoy the next 10 years at Target Field while this organization fields a division championship/WS contender quality team. 

[S.]

 

So, I get the disappointment of fans, we want a great team to root for. Personally, I think we have one now, and, importantly, back on the farm, the kind of stock that can maintain competitiveness over the long term.

 

KC had their day in the sun and got it done, which was great for baseball. But, look how far they have fallen. Is that what fans are wanting?

So you're saying being decent in the regular season and then "competitively" getting crushed in the playoffs is better than winning the world series and then being bad for some years? I seem to recall us being bad for a lot of years without any playoff wins or a WS pennant. I seem to recall 5 and 10 years ago people talking about how we have the stock on the farm to be competitive soon and that we could augment that with some FAs or trades and be a postseason contender. And then I seem to recall us never augmenting with good players or even being remotely close to contending in the playoffs. 

 

If other people are happy to be "competitive" in the regular season with rosters that never actually have a chance of doing anything in the post season, I guess that is good for them, since that is all the Twins are going to provide any time soon. I think the majority of fans would prefer a pennant at damn near any cost.

[h2oface]

 

Another similarity; the Dodgers haven’t won the WS in 30 years either. The Dodgers have been consistently good for quite awhile, but I’ll guess their fans are equally as frustrated with their FO for never making that big move to put them over the top.

 

They certainly are. Massively. Never satisfied. Even with all the playoff wins, (which the Twins know nothing about for the last 19 games). Not that comparable to the Dodgers as far as payroll though, considering the Dodgers actually spend up to and over the luxury level to get the talent that augments the core, and that is what is usually the kicker (except for the Dodgers).

[h2oface]

 

  Winning a WS is exceedingly difficult for any market and even more difficult for a mid-market like the TC.  I'm 52.  It's been 29 years since the Twins won it.  I watched every second of '87 and '91.  It's been 30 years for a market like the Dodgers.  It's tough.  "World Series or Bust" is a dangerous mindset.

  I thoroughly enjoyed the 2000's and sharing those teams and players with my two sons.  I agree that the FO can, and still should, make a move to help in 2020 w/o sacrificing future.  I think they tried, but did it responsibly.  

  Bottom line is this.  With the current makeup of the 40-man and with how well-stocked the farm system seems to be, we should be excited about having good baseball at Target Field for the next decade, not wringing our hands over 30+ year old FAs that are far overpriced and will likely be a payroll liability down the road.  If things align or a move is made that results in a WS title, that would be phenomenal.  Either way, I'm going to enjoy this ride.

  Relax people.  Sit back and enjoy the next 10 years at Target Field while this organization fields a division championship/WS contender quality team. 

 

That's what the Organization is counting on. A stadium full of folks with the same attitide, and especially buying tons of concessions and $20 beer. On TD, it doesn't appear to be the consensus.

[adorduan]

 

It's not ever going to be easy to get back to the World Series. A lot of things have to align, not just planets.

 

When the last time Yankees made it?

 

So, I get the disappointment of fans, we want a great team to root for. Personally, I think we have one now, and, importantly, back on the farm, the kind of stock that can maintain competitiveness over the long term.

 

KC had their day in the sun and got it done, which was great for baseball. But, look how far they have fallen. Is that what fans are wanting?

KC got what I want, a World Series Championship.So, yes.

[adorduan]

 

  Winning a WS is exceedingly difficult for any market and even more difficult for a mid-market like the TC.  I'm 52.  It's been 29 years since the Twins won it.  I watched every second of '87 and '91.  It's been 30 years for a market like the Dodgers.  It's tough.  "World Series or Bust" is a dangerous mindset.

  I thoroughly enjoyed the 2000's and sharing those teams and players with my two sons.  I agree that the FO can, and still should, make a move to help in 2020 w/o sacrificing future.  I think they tried, but did it responsibly.  

  Bottom line is this.  With the current makeup of the 40-man and with how well-stocked the farm system seems to be, we should be excited about having good baseball at Target Field for the next decade, not wringing our hands over 30+ year old FAs that are far overpriced and will likely be a payroll liability down the road.  If things align or a move is made that results in a WS title, that would be phenomenal.  Either way, I'm going to enjoy this ride.

  Relax people.  Sit back and enjoy the next 10 years at Target Field while this organization fields a division championship/WS contender quality team. 

You are counting a lot chickens before they hatch there dude......

[Jham]

Sustainable winning isn't a new goal. It's an organizational philosophy that's been the mantra for years. Here's the issue, sustainable winning is hard and probably requires as much luck as winning a World Series. By definition, it requires abandoning the notion of "windows". It certainly means no punting on seasons or fire sales at the deadline.

 

It's great to say that we need to build a rotation from within. Well what if those arms aren't there? Give up and wait? That's not sustainable winning. It's sustainable losing.

 

Dodgers consistently flirt with the luxury tax threshold. Otherwise they probably would be going after the big free agents.

 

The post money ball As have mostly caught a bad division. They're shrewd. The Cardinals play like they're trying to compete every year. They had opportunities to rebuild or hold course and have frequently made the playoffs despite odds saying they should sell or rebuild.

 

The Royals are an awful example of going all in. They fell off because they had their Strasburg, but he died in a car accident. They had a multitude of injuries. Then, and I can't stress this enough, they decided to rebuild instead of retool. Whenever teams intentionally get worse to later get better, they risk setting off a series of chain reactions that gets them further away instead of closer.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Dodgers also gave Kershaw a generous lifetime contract before he hit free agency, complete with an opt-out invitation to renegotiate down the line. You really think this front office is going to do that with their young stars? Not a rhetorical question any more. My answer is I highly, highly doubt it.

 

You can also add Justin Turner, Kenley Jensen and AJ Pollack making big money in Dodger Land but here's the deal. 

 

Pederson

Enrique

Baez

Seager

Taylor

Muncy

Stripling

Barnes

Alexander

Bellinger

Urias

Verdugo

Buehler

Will Smith

 

Are all affordable great players who combine to a reasonable dollar total and allow the Dodgers to sign Kershaw to a contract like that and stay under the luxury tax.

 

The Dodgers are doing it differently than other teams. They are not winning with the dollar bill. They are developing young talent and playing it. 

 

The current difference between the Dodgers and Twins is that the Twins are not there yet. They will have to spend a little at the moment. The Dodgers don't have to. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Just for kicks I was going to go to the Dodgers site to see if their fans thought Theo / ownership / and the rest of the front office were incompetent based on their lack of moves when this popped up. I especially loved the part about hitting a payroll number.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/stan-kasten-discusses-dodgers-offseason-cole-spending.html

[Wizard11]

Anybody else feel like they are rewatching this scene?

 

 

[Dave Overlund]

 

Food for Thought...

Over the last decade, the top 10 spenders in free agency handed out 8.347 billion dollars and have a total of 3 World Series titles to show for it. That's one title for every 2.782 billion dollars spent. Houston won once and only spent 329 million over the entire decade. Big spending (IMHO) does not appear to be the roadmap to World Series titles.

No one is asking to be a "top spender." Just add a few pieces to add to the cheap core that already exists. I don't think there is a single TD commenter that expects the Twins to be top 5 in payroll. 

[USAFChief]

Food for Thought...

Over the last decade, the top 10 spenders in free agency handed out 8.347 billion dollars and have a total of 3 World Series titles to show for it. That's one title for every 2.782 billion dollars spent. Houston won once and only spent 329 million over the entire decade. Big spending (IMHO) does not appear to be the roadmap to World Series titles.

 

How many WS have the Twins produced?

 

For that matter, how many post-season wins have the Twins produced?

[akmanak]

I wouldn't say that not spending money results in not winning a world series. The last 10 winners with the exception of the Royals were the top 10 payrolls in baseball.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Eh, I can’t twist this offseason into a positive. The Twins are coming off a 101 win season, yet my excitement level is barely higher than the dark years of the past decade.

 

That’s pretty dismal.