Front Page: Here Is What War Projections Say About the Twins and White Sox

[Cooper Carlson]

The Chicago White Sox have been the most aggressive team in baseball this offseason. With key additions to their lineup and their rotation, they are looking like a possible threat to the Twins. Do the Twins and their fans need to be worried about losing the AL Central crown to Chicago?The offseason has not exactly been satisfying or encouraging for Twins fans. While they did re-sign Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Sergio Romo, the only additions have been Alex Avila and Tyler Clippard. When compared to the White Sox it is easy to see why fans (I'm looking at you, dad) are frustrated.

 

White Sox offseason additions:

• Dallas Keuchel: 3 years/$55 million
• Gio Gonzalez: 1 year/$5 million
• Yasmani Grandal: 4 years/$73 million
• Edwin Encarnacion: 1 year/$12 million
• Nomar Mazara: Acquired from Texas

This comes with re-signing first baseman Jose Abreu to a 3 year/$50 million contract earlier in the offseason. So the White Sox have made additions while the Twins have yet to really make their “big move” we are hoping for. What does projected fWAR say abou the two teams in 2020?

 

White Sox vs Twins projected fWAR in 2020

 

Position players: Twins (25.4 fWAR), White Sox (23.2)

Starting pitching: Twins (10.3), White Sox (10.7)

Bullpen: Twins (3.7), White Sox (2.2)

 

Total: Twins (39.4 fWAR), White Sox (36.1 fWAR)

 

So the projections basically say the White Sox are right there with the Twins and they have become a legitimate threat in 2020. There are two reasons I would take the projections lightly and not overthink anything.

 

First, the Twins had a total fWAR of 54.9 last season. The projections expect them to lose 20 wins, basically. Second, the Twins will add more pieces to their team, whether it’s Josh Donaldson, and/or trading for a starting pitcher or two. The Twins aren’t done and they are still projected more wins than Chicago. For an excellent analysis on the WAR for each team last season, check out this

 

Chicago will be relying on the same formula the Twins used to win 101 games last season. Add impact veterans via free agency and have their young core step up in a big way. This includes their No. 1 prospect Luis Robert and their No. 2 prospect Michael Kopech, both of whom are expected to have a big impact in 2020. They will also need repeat performances from Tim Anderson who is due for a load of regression and Yoan Moncada after he finished 15th in position player fWAR at 5.7.

 

They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression. Expecting them to make the jump to the Twins level is unlikely. It’s not impossible, but they are nowhere close to being the “favorites” to win the central. An 18-win jump to get them to 90 wins is where I would put their ceiling for 2020 and honestly that should be the Twins floor.

 

The White Sox have had a great offseason and are likely the most improved team. The Twins have not made any real impact additions to this point and are still projected to be better despite losing 20 wins according to WAR projections. Minnesota will add a couple more players to make them even better, and the White Sox are likely close to being finished. What do you think about the White Sox? Can they overtake the Twins in 2020? Let me know what you think below.

 

 

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[adorduan]

"They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression"

 

Well, the Twins had career years from Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Garver and although injury shortened, Buxton.  You don't think any on them regress?  I wouldn't be shocked to see Grandal  have a higher WAR than Garver this year...

[Cooper Carlson]

 

"They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression"

 

Well, the Twins had career years from Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Garver and although injury shortened, Buxton.  You don't think any on them regress?  I wouldn't be shocked to see Grandal  have a higher WAR than Garver this year...

I expect them all to regress except Kep and Buxk. That could bring the Twins down to like 94 wins. Thats still really good. 

[AZTwin]

Sounds like the White Sox are on the verge of acquiring Yasiel Puig too

[bobs]

Twins fans may wish the White Sox had signed Manny Machado last year.  He hasn't lifted the Padres at all, and instead the Sox went shopping this year....and will be a better team for it.  

I tend to be patient and let the FO use all avenues to put together a club for the following season.

All that said, I'm concerned.  The are a position player (likely 3B) and a top starting pitcher short right now.  Bargain shopping isn't going to fill those spots.  Landing Donaldson would be huge.  Then only one trade (SP) is necessary to round things together.  

Last, to be fair, we don't have any knowledge of the lengths the FO went to try and get some of the FA that have signed.  Let's be realistic, these guys are "free" agents, free to choose where they want to play.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmm. This Tweet doesn't match your numbers. Also, until Zips is totally released, and we can look at Zips and Steamer, I need more data.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah, from 35,000 feet...

 

.... I’d put Detroit at well more than 100 losses (by August 31), KC approaching 100 losses again, and honesty assuming the Twins have some regression from their historic all-time offensive season, probably the other three teams are a crapshoot.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Patrick Wozniak]

Definitely some room for regression in Moncada and Anderson as they BABIPed .406 and .399 respectively.

[jrod23]

I've been nervous of this since '16 & '17 when they acquired Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Jimenez, Rutherford, etc.  And that's just off the top of head.  They went out and completely flipped Eaton, Sale, Quintana, and Frazier for solid prospects.  These are just the highlights from those deals too.  On top of all of this, they're acquiring veterans...Plus Luis Robert.

 

I'm taking the ChiSox seriously.  It might not be this year, but it'll be soon.  Our window is not as large as we're all thinking.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Definitely some room for regression in Moncada and Anderson as they BABIPed .406 and .399 respectively.

I definitely agree Tim Anderson, but Moncada is a slugger entering his prime, and a dip in that guy’s babip doesn’t necessarily mean he’s due for a down season.

[Old Twins Cap]

Oh crap, you mean the Twins are going to have to play good baseball to win the division next year?

 

We can't just put on the jock and ride?

 

What are we going to do?

 

You know, it used to be, you wanted to be in the best division in baseball because that meant you had to be good to advance. That, when you get to the playoffs, you got some added confidence knowing that you won the best division in the game.

 

Not anymore. We want a free-ride into the playoffs and that qualifies us for unlimited complaining once the Yankees torch us.

 

Buck up Minnesota. Bring on the Whities. Then the Yanees. Then the Astros. Then the Dodgers.

 

Bring 'em all.

[mikelink45]

I am not sure why some of these posts show so much angst - give the sox credit - they have done some things to try and progress.  The Twins have not and have lost some points for those we no longer have.  Who can say how this will play out or what will happen before ST.  If we have more competition maybe we will be be primed to do something when the off season comes around again.

[Ben Derflott]

The White Sox have added a couple of bats and a #4 starter. They have burned a fair bit of payroll flexibility along the way. Furthermore, they're still heavily dependent on multiple prospects figuring it out at the same time.

 

The Twins, meanwhile, have brought back their best starter down the stretch, their best first-half starter, and their best hitter. They have also brought in a more than capable backup backstop and figure to give their best catcher significantly more playing time next year. They still have the financial ability and prospect capital to add a Blake Snell type, if they decide they want to.

 

All this to say, the White Sox are not remotely a threat to the Twins this year.

[Patrick Wozniak]

I definitely agree Tim Anderson, but Moncada is a slugger entering his prime, and a dip in that guy’s babip doesn’t necessarily mean he’s due for a down season.

Yeah, I agree that Anderson is much more likely to regress and I don’t really expect Moncada to have a “down year.” He hits the ball hard (unlike Anderson) but with a BABIP that high I do expect his numbers to come down a bit.

[DocBauer]

While I am not a fan of the Dirty Sox in the least, I appreciate their efforts from afar. And while I can appreciate some of the modern statistical measurements, I remain a huge skeptic. Point in fact, another article, written on another Twins website...though compares to TD...uses the same, or much the same, analytical measurements, using mostly the Pythagorean record...all Greek to me, lol...and WAR, and has them as a .500 team for 2020.

 

As of now, the Twins sit at a minimum of 90 wins using the same analytics.

 

I think there is a big difference between the "analytics" used by beat writers, fans and savants vs the analytics used by progressive FO personnel.

 

Give me the best team you can put on the field. Short in an area? Shore up that area the best you can and build up your strengths to compensate. Then give me the best staff you can to utilize what you have. Then let's play ball and see what we have.

 

Besides, it's not even January 1st yet!

[gunnarthor]

The most confident I've ever been going into a season was 2011. We had just come off a 94 win season and we had knocked the White Sox out (they were 12 games back with 10 to play) and we'd have a healthy Morneau and Mauer coming back. Delmon Young, at 24, finally put it all together and we could reasonably expect him to take another step forward. Liriano had finally gotten over his surgery and became the ace we expected. Valencia stepped up and was manning third base efficiently and a solid bat in the bottom half of the order. None of our core players had a "career season" (or so we thought).

 

We might have won 101 games last year but I don't think last year's Twins were as good as the 2006 or 2010 Twins. There is a lot of regression on this team and currently our pitching staff is pretty wobbly. It's too early to panic but I think the idea that the Sox, Twins and Cleveland are all pretty close and anyone could win the central is probably accurate. Now we can change that between now and opening day. And certain things could break right and make the season a laugher (mainly a fully healthy and productive season from Buxton) but right now, it's closer than some of us want to admit.

[D.C Twins]

 

Hmmmm. This Tweet doesn't match your numbers. Also, until Zips is totally released, and we can look at Zips and Steamer, I need more data.

 

A week or two ago I posted and estimate of 87-92 wins so I obviously think this is spot on

 

Seriously though, our starting pitching was VERY healthy last year which is likely not repeatable.

 

I think ODO, Cruz, Pineda, and Garver with have some regression.Berrios, i think has peaked but will maintain for many years. 
 

[etwink]

Of course the White Sox are a threat.  They improved and we, at best, stayed pat!  What have the Twins done legitimately to improve....pull in Clippard?  Of course, as a fan, I want to believe that individual guys will get better, but we could be a better team overall and still win less games, just with the law of averages.  That’s what ZIPS and other look at - they don’t bring emotion or belief into it.  We’re fans....they can’t afford to be.

 

Personally, I think that this entire site should just take a break and just replay exciting plays from the ‘87 and ‘91 World Series until the Twins make another move.  Everyone is so annoyed with the Twins right now that most of the articles in the last week are just turning into arguments.

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

We might have won 101 games last year but I don't think last year's Twins were as good as the 2006 or 2010 Twins. There is a lot of regression on this team and currently our pitching staff is pretty wobbly. It's too early to panic but I think the idea that the Sox, Twins and Cleveland are all pretty close and anyone could win the central is probably accurate. Now we can change that between now and opening day. And certain things could break right and make the season a laugher (mainly a fully healthy and productive season from Buxton) but right now, it's closer than some of us want to admit.

I agree with you, I think it will be a three team race, but you scare me when you say that a healthy Buxton is what it will take to be really good. When was the last time Buxton had a full healthy season??

[In My La Z boy]

I recall the White Sox winning the off season very recently? A couple years ago? How did that work out for them? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I recall the White Sox winning the off season very recently? A couple years ago? How did that work out for them?

 

What year specifically are you referring to?

[shimrod]

We entered the off-season anticipating the FO making moves to support a deep playoff run. Now we're supposed to be happy the Twins are still in contention for the division?

 

 

Congratulations. I believe you've just set a new land-speed record for goalposts. 

[Tomj14]

 

The White Sox have added a couple of bats and a #4 starter. They have burned a fair bit of payroll flexibility along the way. Furthermore, they're still heavily dependent on multiple prospects figuring it out at the same time.

 

All this to say, the White Sox are not remotely a threat to the Twins this year.

They burned payroll flexibility by signing two guys to contracts more than one year?
Please share the kool aid, I would love to have some, honestly I would love to have some.

[Dman]

The Sox need a lot of things to break right to win the division this year IMO.  They lack depth for starting pitching and their infield.  That being said if their pitching and infield hold up this year and Madrigal and Robert perform well then why couldn't they take the division?   There lineup which used to be their weakness will be a strength.  They have some young pitching with top of the rotation stuff.  Their only other big weakness might be their bullpen.  Their team has some warts and like I said things need to break right for them to take the division but they are getting close to being an elite team if you ask me.

[SomeGuy]

 

"They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression. Expecting them to make the jump to the Twins level is unlikely. It’s not impossible, but they are nowhere close to being the “favorites” to win the central. An 18-win jump to get them to 90 wins is where I would put their ceiling for 2020 and honestly that should be the Twins floor."

 

 

They got "career years" from players that are 26,24, and 25 years old. I think Breakout Season is a more accurate term for these 3 white Sox players than a career year in their 2nd or 3rd full seasons. Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito should be main cogs for them going forward.

A lot of people are saying the Twins aren't done adding yet as the big reason why we shouldn't worry but are the White Sox done? They are still heavily connected to some pretty good outfielders and I wouldn't be surprised if they focus on their bullpen next. Seems like they are connected to more rumors than we are.

 

I don't think the White Sox are favorites to win the ALC but the big wild card in this is their next potential breakout players like Luis Robert, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, and Michael Kopech, etc. They still have a lot of players on their roster that have the "future star" projection. It seems likely that this group's progression will far outweigh any regression from last years breakouts. These are the players I worry about more than any they have or could add in Free Agency.
 

 

 

[In My La Z boy]

 

What year specifically are you referring to?

2014/15 winter - 2015 season;
David Robertson 46M/4
Melky Cabrera 42M/3
Adam Laroche 25M/2
Zach Duke 15M/3
Grand Total in free agent money spent 138M in the '14/'15 off season. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2014/15 winter - 2015 season;

David Robertson 46M/4

Melky Cabrera 42M/3

Adam Laroche 25M/2

Zach Duke 15M/3

Grand Total in free agent money spent 138M in the '14/'15 off season.

 

Seems unremarkable, in my opinion.

[In My La Z boy]

 

Seems unremarkable, in my opinion.

5 years from now this winter's signings may also look unremarkable. ChiSox were deemed to have won the 2014/15 off season. Doesn't mean anything was my point.

[bird]

http://www.soxon35th.com/how-close-is-the-2020-american-league-central-race/

[Mike Sixel]

How many winds did the twins have in 2018?