Bumgarner really isn't very good. At least one reputable projection system has him on par with Lewis Thorpe.

 

There are emotional posters on here that apparently will feel better if the Twins do something dumb, because at least it's 'something.' That's not rational. Winning playoff games won't come from dumb moves, sorry to tell you.

You could make this argument against ever spending $$ on FA pitching. It's expensive and often it doesn't work out. But we're never going to beat the Yankees with a rotation that has Lewis Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak in it. 

 

Yeah, analytics have really ruined things in Houston.

And I'm sure somewhere there was a metric that said Verlander was a shell of himself and only a fool would acquire that contract. 

Hitting, and getting a few easy outs against pitchers.

 

You could make this argument against ever spending $$ on FA pitching. It's expensive and often it doesn't work out. But we're never going to beat the Yankees with a rotation that has Lewis Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak in it. 

 

Well as of today, only 1 of those would be a projected option in the playoffs. But I agree the top of the rotation is an issue.

 

Bumgarner though isn't a top of rotation starter, so he wouldn't fix the problem. 

 

Well as of today, only 1 of those would be a projected option in the playoffs. But I agree the top of the rotation is an issue.

 

Bumgarner though isn't a top of rotation starter, so he wouldn't fix the problem. 

 

He'd be near the top of this rotation. If only his Cleveland Steamer number were higher.

There are emotional posters on here that apparently will feel better if the Twins do something dumb, because at least it's 'something.' That's not rational. Winning playoff games won't come from dumb moves, sorry to tell you.

There have been trades that the Twins could have taken without overpaying at the deadline, too. Stroman and Zac Gallen would look great in this rotation.

 

Well as of today, only 1 of those would be a projected option in the playoffs. But I agree the top of the rotation is an issue.

 

Bumgarner though isn't a top of rotation starter, so he wouldn't fix the problem. 

He would be our game 1 or game 2 starter. 

 

He'd be near the top of this rotation. If only his Cleveland Steamer number were higher.

 

***regrets Googling Cleveland Steamer**

 

If the Dodgers et al. weren't willing to pay him more, maybe there's a reason.

 

I think there are a lot of baseball people that do not believe he is an "impact arm" going forward. As badly as we need pitching, I think I would put the money in Donaldson before Bumgarner. Of course, your observation given the Dodgers payroll capacity is a good indication of what Theo thinks.

 

What does this mean for the Ryu market? 

 

There have been trades that the Twins could have taken without overpaying at the deadline, too. Stroman and Zac Gallen would look great in this rotation.

 

I think Stroman is the most arguable non-move we've seen. I'm not crazy about him, but if the Twins don't add anyone equal or better this off-season, that will be difficult to explain.

 

Gallen is a tougher case because the Marlins apparently were interested in a particular prospect/position, and the Twins didn't have anyone with that profile, except *maybe* Lewis.

Well it is time for the Bumgartner really isn't that good posts.  Next we will discover that Ryu isn't really as good as his record indicates.

 

I am annoyed because the Twins have labeled Bumgarner as one of their top targets. And we easily have the capacity to overpay once on a contract to get the player. It would be different if Bumgarner received a 5 year 110 million deal. But even on this 85 million 15 million is deferred.

I am not screaming this time like I did about the Darvish lack of signing. But I don't get it. They won 101 games last year. They are 1 starter from being better than last year, and they are not done making moves. I do hope the Twins decide to sack up and pay someone. Even a little too much just to say we went for it and paid for the upgrade. That gets that monkey off our back and allows us to move.forward.

Because games are won in projection systems. Computer nerds have ruined baseball.

Well, I know I’d rather have the Twins run by people who have systems in place to aid their decision making. I’m glad they try not to let their own limited perceptions and pre-conceived biases pollute their judgement. I’m glad they didn’t go 5 years for Bumgarner, because I think they’ll develop guys who perform as well or better than him over that span for far less money. That’s the gamble, at least.

 

As much as some people hate to hear it (I’m not thinking of anyone specifically, for the record), roster efficiency isn’t about minimizing costs. It’s actually a way to improve club performance. The idea is that teams can more efficiently win by raising the floor of the entire roster. If the majority of the team is around average, that will go a long way toward winning additional games throughout a 162 game season. This is because a team wouldn’t have to trot out multiple players who are below or well below average, which eats into the surplus performance of their above average teammates. It’s a strategy that depends in part on guys having breakouts while they’re still under team control (e.g. Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Duffy, and so on). This is how the Rays, Athletics, and for a while the Astros have managed to field competitive teams more often than not, and it explains why the Angels are so bad despite having the best player of this century in center field.

 

I want to unequivocally state that I’m not suggesting the Twins should try to be an average team. My point is that spending wisely is not (always or only) about saving the owners money. Teams have determined that shrewd investments lead to positive outcomes on the baseball field. This is why I like the Avila signing—he’s not a so-called needle mover, but he will very likely raise the team’s minimum performance level.

 

As for Bumgarner, I think there are better ways to spend that amount of money. Of course the Twins could have afforded to pay him the same contract (as could the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Astros, and every other MLB team). But like it or not (I personally don’t), the Twins were always going to approach free agency looking for value. I’m glad they let someone else commit half a decade to a pitcher who could very well be a full year into his decline. It leaves that money available for extensions and other, wiser roster moves. The front office isn’t trying to hoodwink anyone. They want to win, because their jobs and reputations depend on it.

Well it is time for the Bumgartner really isn't that good posts. Next we will discover that Ryu isn't really as good as his record indicates.

Basically every free agent pitcher except Cole has warts.

Thank god. He’s not that good anymore, and that contact will look bad in a couple years.

For those would rather "spend that money elsewhere" where are you going to spend it? We have a current payroll of $100 million and can allegedly spend $130-140 million. There aren't many places left to spend it.

 

I think there are a lot of baseball people that do not believe he is an "impact arm" going forward. As badly as we need pitching, I think I would put the money in Donaldson before Bumgarner. Of course, your observation given the Dodgers payroll capacity is a good indication of what Theo thinks.

 

What does this mean for the Ryu market? 

 

I like the discipline... I really do. 

 

And I'm as patient as the next guy... However... We got need that can't be mistaken here. 

 

Discipline isn't going to solve it.

 

I'll stick with my patience for now, I'll hang in there but each name off the board makes it progressively harder. 

 

If Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe end up in a 4 spot. I will struggle with that. 

The FO needs targeting practice, apparently.

For those would rather "spend that money elsewhere" where are you going to spend it? We have a current payroll of $100 million and can allegedly spend $130-140 million. There aren't many places left to spend it.

Pitching is getting very expensive. A Berrios extension would be a great place to start.

 

For those would rather "spend that money elsewhere" where are you going to spend it? We have a current payroll of $100 million and can allegedly spend $130-140 million. There aren't many places left to spend it.

 

There is Ryu, Donaldson, various trade targets. There are ways to spend it, and ways to spend it better than Bumgarner. 

 

I will criticize the front office for under-spending when it's a fact, not when it's impatience in the middle of the off-season.

So many statements about the Twins "deciding" not to sign MadBum or trade for Kluber or Stroman or any other move people wanted to see. Do you guys realize that the Twins don't get to just say "We want Bum for 5 years 100 instead of your 5 years 85" and suddenly he's there. How many national reporters need to come out saying that he had no desire to play in MN before you guys believe it? He was never coming here unless the Twins added a 6th year and an insane amount of extra money. He's a human! He gets to pick where he signs!

 

I know this isn't the Kluber thread, but the Indians were never trading him in the division for the same return they got. It was widely reported the Jays and Mets were both asking for our top prospects. Maybe you were willing to do that, but the idea that the Twins could have just called any of those teams and said "no, we will give you Cave, an electric armed reliever, and an average middle infield prospect" and suddenly those teams had to send their pitcher here is ridiculous. The FO isn't just looking at guys online and buying what they want. Wake up and understand how this actually all works and quit the constant whining everytime things don't go the way you want.

 

I'm so happy to see MadBum off the table. He may have possibly 2 good years left if they are lucky.

The most overrated person of the off season here.  Enough.

 

For those would rather "spend that money elsewhere" where are you going to spend it? We have a current payroll of $100 million and can allegedly spend $130-140 million. There aren't many places left to spend it.

 

 I hear Jim needs more shoes and Bill has another crappy movie to make.

 

So many statements about the Twins "deciding" not to sign MadBum or trade for Kluber or Stroman or any other move people wanted to see. Do you guys realize that the Twins don't get to just say "We want Bum for 5 years 100 instead of your 5 years 85" and suddenly he's there. How many national reporters need to come out saying that he had no desire to play in MN before you guys believe it? He was never coming here unless the Twins added a 6th year and an insane amount of extra money. He's a human! He gets to pick where he signs!

 

I know this isn't the Kluber thread, but the Indians were never trading him in the division for the same return they got. It was widely reported the Jays and Mets were both asking for our top prospects. Maybe you were willing to do that, but the idea that the Twins could have just called any of those teams and said "no, we will give you Cave, an electric armed reliever, and an average middle infield prospect" and suddenly those teams had to send their pitcher here is ridiculous. The FO isn't just looking at guys online and buying what they want. Wake up and understand how this actually all works and quit the constant whining everytime things don't go the way you want.

Doogie says they didn't even attempt to top the 5/$85 he got from the D-Backs.

 

The FO needs targeting practice, apparently.

 

They're working on an algorithm now.

 

 I hear Jim needs more shoes and Bill has another crappy movie to make.

I can't put this on the Pohlads. I guarantee they didn't tell Falvey to cut $20 million in payroll after a 100 win season with massive attendance increases. 

 

This is of course a false statement, straight up. Mediocre teams have won the World Series before (the 83-win Cardinals team being an extreme example), so obviously "end of any hope" is nonsense, especially since the off-season is far from over and the Twins are already pretty decent.

You forgot the 87 win Twins... 

 

I like the discipline... I really do. 

 

And I'm as patient as the next guy... However... We got need that can't be mistaken here. 

 

Discipline isn't going to solve it.

 

I'll stick with my patience for now, I'll hang in there but each name off the board makes it progressively harder. 

 

If the Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe end up in a 4 spot. I will struggle with that. 

 

I like the discipline... I really do. 

 

And I'm as patient as the next guy... However... We got need that can't be mistaken here. 

 

Discipline isn't going to solve it.

 

I'll stick with my patience for now, I'll hang in there but each name off the board makes it progressively harder. 

 

If the Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe end up in a 4 spot. I will struggle with that. 

 

No fear, Homer Bailey is still out there.