Front Page: Additional Options to Replace Miguel Sano at Third Base

[Matthew Lenz]

It was reported by multiple sources over the weekend that the Twins were “kicking the tires” on a few free agent third basemen. This list included the likes of Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier with some speculation that Mike Moustakas could be targeted as well. Here are a few more names to consider.Darren Wolfson of KSTP was first to report the Twins interest in Donaldson and Frazier. MLB Trade Rumors speculated that Moustakas could also be a target.

 

Last night, Nate Palmer made a very good argument that the Twins should pursue Moustakas over Donaldson. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook projected Moustakas would sign a three-year, $36MM deal, which in theory would only be an extra $5MM from what Cron is projected to make this season, assuming Miguel Sano moves to first base.

 

That said, the Twins have a much bigger need to sign two, possibly three, more starting pitchers, including at least one who could have an average annual value (AAV) of more than $20MM per year. Furthermore, the additional projected $12MM per year in 2021 and 2022 to Moustakas could prohibit the Twins from making any deadline or free agent moves in the future when they hope to be competing for a World Series.

 

Although the sample is small, FanGraphs has Sano as a better first baseman than third but he would still be considered a “poor” defender by their metrics. In short, this move would basically be inconsequential compared to if he were playing third base.

 

Instead, what we’re looking to compare is how much of an improvement would new third baseman be over Cron. That calculation should include both a statistical comparison and take into account the financials. Another thing to consider is Sano could become a near full-time DH in the near future, as Alex Kirilloff is close to being Major League ready and has played some first base.

 

It’s worth mentioning that, despite another small sample, Marwin Gonzalez has been a slightly better defensive third baseman than Moustakas over the past four seasons and is under contract for 2020 at $9MM. As an in-house option over Cron, Gonzalez provides a little less offense but a lot more defense, so he could be a good solution without the added cost.

 

Let's look at some other, cheaper options.

 

Brock Holt, Super Utility

Entering his age-32 season, Brock Holt has established himself as a Marwin Gonzalez proto-type. He can play any position, including third, but doesn’t quite have the bat the Gonzalez and Cron have. MLBTR projected him at just two years, $8MM so you’re getting a bit of a lesser player but for about half the AAV he’s much better than half the player.

 

Todd Frazier, 3B

He’ll be 34 before the season starts, but Frazier has still be a productive player over the last two seasons as a part of the Mets. Until 2019, Frazier was always a plus defender at third but age may be slowing him down a bit as he had his worst defensive season since 2016. Regardless, he would still provide a bottom of the order punch similar to what Cron did, and would likely demand about the same AAV as Brock Holt. Another case of half the cost but more than half the player.

 

Matt Duffy, 3B

The oft-injured former Rookie of the Year runner-up just cleared waivers and was released by the Tampa Bay Rays today despite being only one year removed from a 2.3 fWAR campaign. A definite buy-low candidate who has an above average career OPS and an average UZR would likely be looking at a one-year “prove it” deal with a very low base salary in 2020. The Twins would be taking the risk of having to find a filler if he gets hurt, but that’s something they can afford to do with Marwin Gonzalez on the roster.

 

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[DocBauer]

So we should bring an average defensive 3B to move to Sano to 1B and replace Cron's offense with an aging and less powerful/productive veteran or a couple of guys with zero power and production who are best used as utility players?

 

Holt...maybe...as a replacement for Marwin on the utility level so he can start full time at 3B.

 

I just don't get this at all.

[mikelink45]

I am frustrated by this line just as I have been with the Rosario posts.  Sano is still our 3B.  He is just below average, but which is more important in defense - 1B or 3B.  I await your answer and will be ready for the debate.  Should we move for a slightly better 3B to have a slightly worse 1B?  I don't think so.  Has anyone checked in with Sano to see what he prefers?  I remember a wonder and failed experiment with RF.  Why mess with someone who has the potential to be a star?  

 

I keep thinking - what is our real need (I won't repeat, because you all know).

[ChrisKnutson]

I get that we desperately need starting pitching, but the fact we’re pretty much one quality bat away from having the most dangerous lineup in the league (without cheating) really does make the idea of adding an elite bat like Donaldson for 1-2 years very interesting.

 

However, if that limits our capacity to add quality starting pitching then I’m not opposed to bringing back Cron, although I’d also be interested in Maikel Franco and Jurickson Profar as well; both which are non-tender candidates. Although, Howie Kendrick would be the ideal signing given that both Lewis and Kirilloff are nearing their ML debuts.

[Riverbrian]

I can understand...  The thinking with all these plans to move Sano to 1B. 

 

What I can't understand is... Any plan of moving Sano to 1B and then removing all trace of his ability to play 3B. 

 

 

 

 

 

[rv78]

If the objective is to make the Twins better defensively you don't move Sano to 1B. If he doesn't play 3B then he DH's. With Cruz on the roster, Sano is the 3B. Why would his glove or range be better at 1B? He has a cannon for an arm and at 1B that won't be nearly important as it would be at 3B. So in reality you are taking away his best aspect defensively by moving him to 1B. 

 

All of these options would be downgrades in my book. We don't need declining 3rd basemen to replace a good defensive player in CJ Cron at 1B. Which is what you are accomplishing.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Crazy thought (I mean crazy because it isn't mentioned at all in articles or even said out loud very often) but what if looking at a 3B defensive upgrade for Sano also means they would be toying with the idea of trading him for pitching?

 

Hypothetically, they keep Cron for a year AND bring in a 3B who would be a defensive upgrade. What kind of pitcher could you get for 2 years left of Sano?

 

This is not me advocating trading him. I just, I see articles mentioning trading Rosario. Sano HAS to have a bit more trade value at the moment right? And, arguably, this would be the highest his trade value would ever be I'd imagine.

 

Thoughts? Is this crazy to say out loud?

[nicksaviking]

I really don't want to give Marwin a permanent position to play, I like him as a super utility player, but don't like him enough offensively to give him a corner spot.

 

I'd still take Brock Holt though. With the expanded roster this year a 2nd super utility player with a non-negative bat sounds like a fantastic idea to me.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Crazy thought (I mean crazy because it isn't mentioned at all in articles or even said out loud very often) but what if looking at a 3B defensive upgrade for Sano also means they would be toying with the idea of trading him for pitching?

 

Hypothetically, they keep Cron for a year AND bring in a 3B who would be a defensive upgrade. What kind of pitcher could you get for 2 years left of Sano?

 

This is not me advocating trading him. I just, I see articles mentioning trading Rosario. Sano HAS to have a bit more trade value at the moment right? And, arguably, this would be the highest his trade value would ever be I'd imagine.

 

Thoughts? Is this crazy to say out loud?

If you are going to trade Sano, trade him while he's still considered a third baseman and has two years left. It would leave a massive gap in the lineup and I have my doubts that he's worth much of anything in the ways of major league starting pitching, and wouldn't trade hiim.

 

Personally I think, if you can't sign Donaldson, Moustakas, or trade for Bryant - leave Sano at 3rd primarily, sign Brock Holt, and rotate Marwin, Miguel and Brock through the corner IFs. 

[Number3]

In many ways, first base is a more critical defensive position than third. Used to be if you can catch a thrown ball you can play first. See Dick Stuart, Ted Kluszewski espcially in the pre DH Al where number one qualification was be a power hitter. A first baseman must be able to save the other infielders and the pitcher from bad throws as well as make all kinds of unusual plays themselves including when the pitcher covers the bag. If Sano is a liability at third, he will probably be a liability at first. At least he seems to be most comfortable at third and anything that might effect his hitting is not good.

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think the goal should be to move Sano. I think the goal should be to add a good corner bat. The better corner infield bats belong to Donaldson and Moustakis. They happen to play 3B. If they can’t sign either of those two keep Sano at 3B.

 

Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff are just too close to add one of the above on a two year commitment. It needs to be a commitment they are comfortable releasing if their play declines to mediocre. Keep Cron and his one year tender or go with the young guys from opening day.

[RedBull34]

 

I don’t think the goal should be to move Sano. I think the goal should be to add a good corner bat. The better corner infield bats belong to Donaldson and Moustakis. They happen to play 3B. If they can’t sign either of those two keep Sano at 3B.

Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff are just too close to add one of the above on a two year commitment. It needs to be a commitment they are comfortable releasing if their play declines to mediocre. Keep Cron and his one year tender or go with the young guys from opening day.

Not that he's coming to MN, but Rendon would also qualify as a better corner infield bat.

[RedBull34]

Yea I don't understand the Sano to 1st talk unless it's to accommodate Donaldson or Rendon.  I don't have any interest in Moose.

 

I don't hate Cron's bat, as all things considered I'd rather have anaverage RH then an average LH bat in this lineup.

 

Just spend the money on pitching, a backup C, and a player who can play backup CF and steal bases (I'm all for signing Billy Hamilton for this reason, he would fill a niche the Twins don't currently have.)

[Battle ur tail off]

Yuck, puke, gag.

 

I don't want any part of any of these guys. What a Pohlad like move any of these guys would be. If you are going to try a new 3B, get yourself someone that is good or great. Don't bring in a guy that is only a slightly better defender, but much worse bat. Makes no sense. 

 

If you think Sano can play a good 3B and you are able to sign Donaldson, Moose, or Rendon, fine. Anyone else and I don't think it is worth the dropoff offensively to save maybe 2-3 runs a season.

[Rigby]

 

In many ways, first base is a more critical defensive position than third. Used to be if you can catch a thrown ball you can play first. See Dick Stuart, Ted Kluszewski espcially in the pre DH Al where number one qualification was be a power hitter. A first baseman must be able to save the other infielders and the pitcher from bad throws as well as make all kinds of unusual plays themselves including when the pitcher covers the bag. If Sano is a liability at third, he will probably be a liability at first. At least he seems to be most comfortable at third and anything that might effect his hitting is not good.

 

Not every day you see a reference to 'ol Dr. Strangeglove on here. Kudos.

[ChrisKnutson]

I don’t think the goal should be to move Sano. I think the goal should be to add a good corner bat. The better corner infield bats belong to Donaldson and Moustakis. They happen to play 3B. If they can’t sign either of those two keep Sano at 3B.

Rooker, Larnach or Kirilloff are just too close to add one of the above on a two year commitment. It needs to be a commitment they are comfortable releasing if their play declines to mediocre. Keep Cron and his one year tender or go with the young guys from opening day.

If the FO can’t sign either I’d encourage them to look into the trade market as well because there’s plenty of quality options. While it’s highly unlikely, perhaps Arenado or Rizzo could be options. Realistically, there’s also Matt Carpenter, Evan Longoria, and Kyle Seager. However, the option that intrigues me the most is Carlos Santana. With one year left on his contract, he’d definitely be a great stopgap for Kirilloff. Although I doubt Cleveland would as interested... Perhaps a 3 team trade?

[IndianaTwin]

Since this discussion has morphed into talking about both corners, it's worth noting that the Rays have DFAed Jesus Aguilar, who is one year removed from a 3.2 WAR season. That would save money on Cron. 

[Matthew Lenz]

 

So we should bring an average defensive 3B to move to Sano to 1B and replace Cron's offense with an aging and less powerful/productive veteran or a couple of guys with zero power and production who are best used as utility players? Holt...maybe...as a replacement for Marwin on the utility level so he can start full time at 3B. I just don't get this at all.

I'm with you. I don't get moving Sano over to first base either. I'm on board with tendering Cron a one-year deal and keeping Sano at third for at least one more season while Cruz is still our DH. Eventually, I'd like to see Sano be our full time DH as I think that's how he stays healthy.

 

That said, this article is in response to the rumors that came out over this weekend and these three names aren't much of a downgrade while being a lot cheaper and not prohibiting the Twins from adding a big name starter.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I am frustrated by this line just as I have been with the Rosario posts.  Sano is still our 3B.  He is just below average, but which is more important in defense - 1B or 3B.  I await your answer and will be ready for the debate.  Should we move for a slightly better 3B to have a slightly worse 1B?  I don't think so.  Has anyone checked in with Sano to see what he prefers?  I remember a wonder and failed experiment with RF.  Why mess with someone who has the potential to be a star?  

 

I keep thinking - what is our real need (I won't repeat, because you all know).

It is not my idea to move Sano to first. This piece is in response to the rumors that we are "kicking the tires" on free agent third basemen. If that's the case then I would target a cheap option so we can land a big name starting pitcher.

 

I would love to see Cron at 1B in 2020. Eventually, I want to see Sano be our full time DH when Cruz is done.

 

I hope Sano "prefers" to help the team in anyway possible. Because he's not a good third basemen and he needs to be willing to DH.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I can understand...  The thinking with all these plans to move Sano to 1B. 

 

What I can't understand is... Any plan of moving Sano to 1B and then removing all trace of his ability to play 3B. 

Sano surprises people with some of his plays because he's a big guy. That's not the same as him being a good third basemen. He is not a good third basemen, but makes some really nice plays for a player his size.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

All of these options would be downgrades in my book. We don't need declining 3rd basemen to replace a good defensive player in CJ Cron at 1B. Which is what you are accomplishing.

Right. If they are "cheaper" options then they are inherently downgrades. My point is to say that they are about half the yearly salary but more than half the player than Cron. In a WAR/$ sense, they are more valuable.

 

Also, this is in response to the rumors. I, personally, would not move Sano to 1B.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

Crazy thought (I mean crazy because it isn't mentioned at all in articles or even said out loud very often) but what if looking at a 3B defensive upgrade for Sano also means they would be toying with the idea of trading him for pitching?

 

Hypothetically, they keep Cron for a year AND bring in a 3B who would be a defensive upgrade. What kind of pitcher could you get for 2 years left of Sano?

 

This is not me advocating trading him. I just, I see articles mentioning trading Rosario. Sano HAS to have a bit more trade value at the moment right? And, arguably, this would be the highest his trade value would ever be I'd imagine.

 

Thoughts? Is this crazy to say out loud?

I wish I was better 

 

Yea I don't understand the Sano to 1st talk unless it's to accommodate Donaldson or Rendon.  I don't have any interest in Moose.

 

I don't hate Cron's bat, as all things considered I'd rather have anaverage RH then an average LH bat in this lineup.

 

Just spend the money on pitching, a backup C, and a player who can play backup CF and steal bases (I'm all for signing Billy Hamilton for this reason, he would fill a niche the Twins don't currently have.)

You might be the only person in the world that wants Billy Hamilton on the Twins

[Matthew Lenz]

 

Yuck, puke, gag.

 

I don't want any part of any of these guys. What a Pohlad like move any of these guys would be. If you are going to try a new 3B, get yourself someone that is good or great. Don't bring in a guy that is only a slightly better defender, but much worse bat. Makes no sense. 

 

If you think Sano can play a good 3B and you are able to sign Donaldson, Moose, or Rendon, fine. Anyone else and I don't think it is worth the dropoff offensively to save maybe 2-3 runs a season.

Personally, I don't want this season to be headlined by an offensive addition. Starting pitching is a much bigger need and I have a feeling if they pay Donaldson, Moose, or Rendon then we aren't going to sign a big name starter. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

In regard to the three 3B listed in the original article, No No and No.

[ewen21]

So we should bring an average defensive 3B to move to Sano to 1B and replace Cron's offense with an aging and less powerful/productive veteran or a couple of guys with zero power and production who are best used as utility players?Holt...maybe...as a replacement for Marwin on the utility level so he can start full time at 3B.I just don't get this at all.

Pretty much my reaction when I saw this thread

[DocBauer]

I hate to beat a dead horse, but everyone who is so worried about Sano's defense needs to take a step backk for a moment.

 

He has a rocket. His hands are at least decent. He charges the ball well. He is solid on pop ups and foul balls. The only thing he really isn't is "range-y" laterally. Depending on which article you read and which defensive metric, he was average or slightly below average last season. Despite it seeming as though he has been around forever, he will only be 26yo in 2020. He had a nightmare of a 2018 and a very good 2019, overall, after a rough start. Hopefully, no more setbacks for this slimmer, better conditioned and harder working Sano.

 

For those old enough to remember, Gaetti came up with hands of stone. A few years later he won a Gold Glove. When Koskie came up, he was too tall and stiff to play 3B. A couple years later he was one of the better defensive 3B around.

 

Why, oh why can't Sano continue to improve, at least a little? Shouldn't we at least give him 2020 to see?

[Rosterman]

Orioes cutting loose Jonathan Villar. Is he a possibility to switch things up between 2B SS 3B? Fives the Twins some needed stolen bases, plys a solid bat (few too many K's). - ?

[jkcarew]

Beyond Rendon, the only one worth moving Sano to 1B and 'replacing' Cron in the line-up would be Donaldson in a short, win-now move.

 

But since pitching is more pressing than replacing Cron, I'd expect that Sano stays at 3B until a more obvious candidate to replace him there comes along. Having said that, I do find it problematic that the Twins seem to have zero prospects (based on current positions and performance) likely to provide offensive value at that position in the majors any time soon. Maybe Blankenhorn emerges as kind of a late-bloomer?

 

 

[Darius]

There is a prevailing sentiment, as we’re seeing, that Sano at 3B is some sort of problem.

 

Sano at 3B, in my estimation, is pretty far down the list of issues on this squad. Clearly, pitching is where resources need to be invested. Both in the rotation and bullpen. If we’re going to criticize defense, why aren’t more people talking about Polanco at short, and moving him? How about Jake Cabe flailing around in the OF as the 4th guy? What about Cron dropping routine balls that get to him in the air in playoff games?

 

I get Sano isn’t the greatest 3B, but acting like moving him off of 3B is going to solve problems and propel this team to the next level is asinine. IMO, it comes down to a number of people having a some sort of negative bias related to Sano (going back to off-field things, stupid striv articles about his weight, etc).

 

If you can upgrade him at 3B and move him to 1B, fine. But bringing in some marginal player like Brock Holt just to move Sano off of 3B is such a bad take that it’s borderline offensive.

[DocBauer]

There is a prevailing sentiment, as we’re seeing, that Sano at 3B is some sort of problem.

 

Sano at 3B, in my estimation, is pretty far down the list of issues on this squad. Clearly, pitching is where resources need to be invested. Both in the rotation and bullpen. If we’re going to criticize defense, why aren’t more people talking about Polanco at short, and moving him? How about Jake Cabe flailing around in the OF as the 4th guy? What about Cron dropping routine balls that get to him in the air in playoff games?

 

I get Sano isn’t the greatest 3B, but acting like moving him off of 3B is going to solve problems and propel this team to the next level is asinine. IMO, it comes down to a number of people having a some sort of negative bias related to Sano (going back to off-field things, stupid striv articles about his weight, etc).

 

If you can upgrade him at 3B and move him to 1B, fine. But bringing in some marginal player like Brock Holt just to move Sano off of 3B is such a bad take that it’s borderline offensive.

In addition to the comments I made about Sano above, why can't Polanco continue to develop and grow defensively? Like Sano, I believe he will only be 26yo next season and now has a relatively consistent 2 1/2 seasons in as a full time ML SS. He is a fine athlete with a new throwing motion. I believe he graded out about average defensively last season. There is still room to grow for both of them.