Front Page: Find the Next Gerrit Cole? Twins Have Shown the Knack

[jtkoupal]

Odorizzi had a great year, but Cole is on a different level. Cole always had better stuff than Odo. The Twins have done a great job with Odo, but Gerrit Coles don't come around often. I don't know if I'd really compare anyone to him.

[Tomj14]

 

K/9 this year: 10.1 

Highest K/9 in Tampa: 9.3 (as a rookie in 2014)

 

FIP this year: 3.36
Lowest FIP in Tampa: 3.61

 

Whiff rate this year: 12.7%

Highest whiff rate in Tampa: 11.2%

 

Avg FB velo this year: 92.9 MPH

Highest avg FB velo in Tampa: 91.6 MPH

 

fWAR this year: 4.3

Highest fWAR in Tampa: 2.9

The list goes on. And we also need to consider he was at his lowest point when the Twins acquired him. Nearly all of those high marks in Tampa came years before the trade.

 

Suffice to say, if the Rays had any notion of Odorizzi turning into a pitcher of this caliber, he wouldn't have been dealt for a relative non-prospect. He has progressively turned into a top-tier pitcher in MN, largely because the team helped him maximize his arsenal and cut down drastically on HRs (which is borderline miraculous given his lofty FB rate). 

So he strikes out more people and is FIP went down by 7%, fWAR tells your story and Baseball reference contradicts your story, if you take the average of them, his best with the Twins is 3.95 and best with Tampa is 3.2, still less than 1 win.

Your FB velo should go up when your innings per 9 go down which has happened his last 3 years.

Maybe the Twins should get credit for asking him to go all out for 5 to 6 instead of trying to get further in the game thus increasing his fb velo?

If you were to say he is trending upward I could go along with that, but 2018 also happened.

Again I am glad he will be back in 2020, but if his improvement were anywhere near Cole's he would be getting a way better contract than the one he is going to sign.

Hey if the Twins want credit for turning somebody around go get Thor and turn him into Cole and I will bow down them as one of the greatest.

[bird]

 

Lynn 2017:(StL) 11-8, 3.43
Lynn 2018:(MIN) 7-8, 5.10 
Lynn 2018: (NYY) 3-2, 4.14
Lynn 2019: (TEX) 16-11, 3.67

 

Yes, the Twins were the ones who fixed him. 

 

Exactly what are you willing to conclude about this information? What does the current baseball operation have to do with Mike Pelfry?

[KirbyDome89]

Odorizzi's 15' and 16' seasons are on par with what he did this year. If 2017 counts towards his TB tenure than he has to own last season as part of his time with MN as well. Also, he was a completely different pitcher in the 2nd half of this season. It's still a good move by the FO, but I wouldn't say the organization "turned Odorizzi around," and I'd certainly stop short of saying the Twins have a knack for developing pitching at this point. 

[Mike Sixel]

Exactly what are you willing to conclude about this information? What does the current baseball operation have to do with Mike Pelfry?

It's hard to say the Twins fixed Lynn, given the actual outcomes he produced. I think all anyone is saying is that we don't have sufficient evidence to believe they know how to fix a pitcher. There just isn't much data at this point.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Odorizzi's 15' and 16' seasons are on par with what he did this year. If 2017 counts towards his TB tenure than he has to own last season as part of his time with MN as well. Also, he was a completely different pitcher in the 2nd half of this season. It's still a good move by the FO, but I wouldn't say the organization "turned Odorizzi around," and I'd certainly stop short of saying the Twins have a knack for developing pitching at this point. 

Correction: He was a completely different pitcher in July, when he dealt with a blister issue and his mechanics got slightly out of wack. His performance in August/Sept was on par with the first half. 

I'd actually trace his turnaround with the Twins back to midway through 2018. In August and September he allowed a .202 avg and just 3 HR. They didn't help him connect the dots instantly, it took about half a season, but since then he's been an excellent starter. 

No one single case is going to prove anything about pitcher development capabilities (though I'd toss the success of Pineda, Dobnak, Smeltzer, & various relievers into the pile as well). Still, I'm not sure how people can look at the overall progress of Odorizzi and not conclude that it reflects extremely well on the org. 

[nicksaviking]

 

It's hard to say the Twins fixed Lynn, given the actual outcomes he produced. I think all anyone is saying is that we don't have sufficient evidence to believe they know how to fix a pitcher. There just isn't much data at this point.

 

That's fair. But as long as it's possible that some pitchers can be "fixed" and turned into good if not great arms, I'd still like to see our team continue to attempt to do so.

[twinstalker]

 

Among the pitchers we haven't "fixed": Anibal Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, Martin Perez, Kevin Corriea, Hector Santiago, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco, and Lance Lynn. 

 

On the other hand, Odorizzi. 

Just to note: Anibal had fixed himself prior to joining the Twins. The Twins just didn't have enough faith that was the case and let him go when they needed his spot on the 40. But becoming horrible and finding a fix is pretty much Anibal's whole career in a nutshell.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

K/9 this year: 10.1 

Highest K/9 in Tampa: 9.3 (as a rookie in 2014)

 

FIP this year: 3.36
Lowest FIP in Tampa: 3.61

 

Whiff rate this year: 12.7%

Highest whiff rate in Tampa: 11.2%

 

Avg FB velo this year: 92.9 MPH

Highest avg FB velo in Tampa: 91.6 MPH

 

fWAR this year: 4.3

Highest fWAR in Tampa: 2.9

The list goes on. And we also need to consider he was at his lowest point when the Twins acquired him. Nearly all of those high marks in Tampa came years before the trade.

 

Suffice to say, if the Rays had any notion of Odorizzi turning into a pitcher of this caliber, he wouldn't have been dealt for a relative non-prospect. He has progressively turned into a top-tier pitcher in MN, largely because the team helped him maximize his arsenal and cut down drastically on HRs (which is borderline miraculous given his lofty FB rate). 

 

I do agree we should be finding the next Cole. And I do like that the FO seems to be much better suited to identifying and developing said talent.

 

So here's my question for you Nick...

 

How do you account for the time it takes to do that on a competitor? Odorizzi was pretty bad for most of his first season here. His last 2 months (if I remember right) were in line with this season, but the first 4 were... well... not good.

 

We won 101 games last year. We need to not overlook Cleveland and Chicago, and I think we can safely assume the offense will regress a bit, so getting good pitching (particularly starters in our case) is a must. If you go out and try and find the next Cole, you're giving a spot to 2018 Odorizzi. Are you comfortable with that?  Games will be given away in that scenario.

 

Personally, I'd rather spend the cash and get the real Cole... would you not agree?

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Gray definitely belongs in this convo. Many of the same traits as Cole/Odo and will probably cost less than Archer to acquire. 

Why would Archer cost more than Gray? If I had a choice I'd easily go Gray.

 

As I said Archer is intriguing. But the truth is lately he has flat out stunk.Just cuz the Pirates paid too much for him does not make him a better get. Pirates better keep Archer I guess and hope he's a world beater. If the Twins give up much more for him than they did for Odo there should be some major outrage.

[Nick Nelson]

 

So here's my question for you Nick...

 

How do you account for the time it takes to do that on a competitor? Odorizzi was pretty bad for most of his first season here. His last 2 months (if I remember right) were in line with this season, but the first 4 were... well... not good.

 

We won 101 games last year. We need to not overlook Cleveland and Chicago, and I think we can safely assume the offense will regress a bit, so getting good pitching (particularly starters in our case) is a must. If you go out and try and find the next Cole, you're giving a spot to 2018 Odorizzi. Are you comfortable with that?  Games will be given away in that scenario.

 

Personally, I'd rather spend the cash and get the real Cole... would you not agree?

This is what I was driving at when closing the article with this: "The question is whether they can now level-up, expending more resources to add a player capable of even greater impact."

 

So what I'm wondering is if the Twins can now do something more akin to Houston with Cole -- even though they bought low, the Astros did give up a legit haul to acquire him, whereas Odorizzi was just a salary dump for TB more or less. So the challenge for MIN is to target a higher-caliber arm with higher upside, who can be more quickly turned around, while not having to pay the premium of buying at their absolute peak value.

 

That's the issue with Cole. Setting aside the unlikelihood of the Twins ponying up $250M, it's just not ideal team-building strategy for a club with finite spending resources to commit so much money to one guy for 7 years. The key is finding them before their breakout and their true prime. 

 

Archer and Gray both strike me as guys who, like Cole, could flip a switch immediately and reach that No. 1/2 status with good health and the right tweaks. 
 

[Mike Sixel]

They need two or three.... They have fifty million in budget. Seriously.

 

Never, ever, mention financial flexibility again if you don't think they should actuality sign great players. Because it is a meaningless phrase at that point, other than cover for ownership.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is what I was driving at when closing the article with this: "The question is whether they can now level-up, expending more resources to add a player capable of even greater impact."

 

So what I'm wondering is if the Twins can now do something more akin to Houston with Cole -- even though they bought low, the Astros did give up a legit haul to acquire him, whereas Odorizzi was just a salary dump for TB more or less. So the challenge for MIN is to target a higher-caliber arm with higher upside, who can be more quickly turned around, while not having to pay the premium of buying at their absolute peak value.

 

That's the issue with Cole. Setting aside the unlikelihood of the Twins ponying up $250M, it's just not ideal team-building strategy for a club with finite spending resources to commit so much money to one guy for 7 years. The key is finding them before their breakout and their true prime. 

 

Archer and Gray both strike me as guys who, like Cole, could flip a switch immediately and reach that No. 1/2 status with good health and the right tweaks. 
 

 

They need two spots (I'm willing to give the 5th spot to one of the AAA guys).. I could see something like that for one of those spots (in my own plan I went out and got Pineda and used his suspension to platoon him with Graterol), but I think with the money they have to spent that it would be quite the disservice to the fans not to go out and get a Cole, Wheeler, Strassburg, Ryu, or Bumgardner… I've certainly made my case as to which one(s) I want out of that list, but if they ponied up and go the one they thought was best, I'd be fine with that. 

 

But I still really think they need to spend some money... Lord knows they have the cash this offseason and that window is open. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Been trying to get this team to trade for Gray since they didn't draft him....

 

I mean, they never had the chance to draft him, so it's a little unfair to imply not drafting him was a mistake.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

If they were great at it, they probably wouldn't have gone into this off season with one starting pitcher on the roster....

 

Or, since they've been here only 3 years, 2 of which were expected to be non-playoff years, maybe the fact that they've almost completely shed the rotation from 3 years ago is a sign that they know what they're doing.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I think the Twins will sign a low bucket FA starter again - I've mentioned Ivan Nova but someone like him for sure. I just don't think the Twins will pay what good starting pitching is worth. The FO comes from a non-spending background and Rocco came from Tampa as well. I think the writing is on the wall that this team is going to adopt a Rays like pitching staff, rather than bring in big FAs.

 

As to the FO's ability to identify talent (especially pitching talent), I think the jury is still out. Odorizzi was a great pickup but many of the trades and signings haven't worked out. Still too early to condemn but probably too early to praise, as well. 

 

Levine comes from Texas, which once upon a time gave A-Rod a 10 year $250M contract, and has been in the top half of payroll every year since 2011, including top ten in 2012 and 2014-2017.

 

The Rays' pitching staff was 1st in WAR, 3rd in ERA, 1st in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, 3rd in k/9, 3rd in bb/9, 1st in HR/9, 2nd in SIERA, and 1st in swinging strike rate.  I would love for Falvine to emulate the Rays' pitching staff.

 

Odo, Pineda, Dobnak, Littell, and Smeltzer have all worked out pretty well so far.  Alcala, Bailey, and Duran all show promise.  8 pitchers in 3 years suggests a decent ability to identify talent--the question is if they can find elite level talent without regular access to the two most common avenues; high draft picks and high payrolls.

[markos]

While I'm mostly sympathetic with Nick's premise here (I'm a big believer of this organization's ability to coax better performance - particularly velocity - from their pitchers), this won't be as easy as it was 2 years ago. Cole/Odorizzi were acquired as cheap as they were because it wasn't really a thing to expect giant leaps in performance. Now it is. If, for example, Jon Gray was put on the trading block, I bet 20 teams would line up to try to attain him. And this change in expectation is reflected by the recent trade deadline. The price that SELLING teams were asking certainly seemed to indicate that they were setting a price based more on potential rather than past or recent performance. No one wants to sell a pitcher and watch them take a leap for another team, but it certainly makes it more palatable if they got a great return that priced in the leap to a certain degree.

[Mike Sixel]

Or, since they've been here only 3 years, 2 of which were expected to be non-playoff years, maybe the fact that they've almost completely shed the rotation from 3 years ago is a sign that they know what they're doing.

Are you arguing they couldn't find one good pitcher to bring in last off season for more than a year? That it is a good idea to have one starter going into a year you expect to compete?

[Nick Nelson]

@markos: It certainly won't be as cheap as it once was. But the Twins have the bullets to pony up for a guy they can believe in.

 

@diehardtwinsfan: Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of spending some money on a free agent pitcher. I just don't see Cole as especially realistic, nor do I view the avenue as being all that reliable in general. (Yu Darvish looked like a slam dunk when the Cubs signed him, but it took him much longer to get right in a Cubs uni than Odo here.) So this is mainly presented as a complementary measure to acquire potential top-end pitching.

@Mike Sixel: "They have fifty million in budget. Seriously." It's not quite that simple. When you lock into a Gerrit Cole for $35M in 2024, that meaningfully affects your ability or retain core players that are getting more expensive or hitting FA at that point -- Berrios, Buxton, Sano, etc. We can't look at these kinds of things in a single-year scope. Huge long-term deals are scary; there's a reason the Twins aren't the only team moving away from them.

 

[rv78]

Who have the Twins found ("The Knack" as you call it) that is like Gerrit Cole? Can only think of 1 guy and that is Johan Santana. I'm guessing that was more LUCK than it was KNACK.

 

They have more of a KNACK at finding guys like Sidney Ponson, Carl Pavano, Matt Capps and Kevin Correia.

Edited November 20, 2019 by rv78

[Mike Sixel]

@markos: It certainly won't be as cheap as it once was. But the Twins have the bullets to pony up for a guy they can believe in.

 

@diehardtwinsfan: Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of spending some money on a free agent pitcher. I just don't see Cole as especially realistic, nor do I view the avenue as being all that reliable in general. (Yu Darvish looked like a slam dunk when the Cubs signed him, but it took him much longer to get right in a Cubs uni than Odo here.) So this is mainly presented as a complementary measure to acquire potential top-end pitching.

 

@Mike Sixel: "They have fifty million in budget. Seriously." It's not quite that simple. When you lock into a Gerrit Cole for $35M in 2024, that meaningfully affects your ability or retain core players that are getting more expensive or hitting FA at that point -- Berrios, Buxton, Sano, etc. We can't look at these kinds of things in a single-year scope. Huge long-term deals are scary; there's a reason the Twins aren't the only team moving away from them.

 

 

Where did I say Cole? If they don't sign a great pitcher this year, they failed.

 

They literally offered a long term deal to Darvish...

Edited November 20, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[Mike Sixel]

I'm sure Washington regrets Corbin.... For the right player, you have to go more than three years.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Who have the Twins found ("The Knack" as you call it) that is like Gerrit Cole? Can only think of 1 guy and that is Johan Santana. I'm guessing that was more LUCK than it was KNACK.

 

They have more of a KNACK at finding guys like Sidney Ponson, Carl Pavano, Matt Capps and Kevin Correia.

All very relevant and pertinent examples, thank you. I must say you've made me rethink my confidence in Terry Ryan's ability to uncover an overlooked talent this offseason.

 

 

Where did I say Cole? If they don't sign a great pitcher this year, they failed.

They literally offered a long term deal to Darvish...

And how would that've worked out for them?

They need to acquire good pitching, we're all agreed on that. But it can come through many different channels. Trading for a player is not mutually exclusive from signing one. The only thing I took issue with in your remarks is that financial flexibility is a farce and just a "cover for ownership." It actually does need to be a consideration when looking at lucrative long-term deals for players that are aging past their prime, which is what makes the avenue I'm suggesting here more appealing. IMO. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I thought I was clear. You can't argue they need flexibility and that they should not spend that when they have it.

 

No one is saying spend like the Yankees, and not consider a budget.

 

As for Darvish, he would have been the Twins best pitcher in the second half last year, and would be in the roster now. I'm guessing that now that he's healthy, he'll be good for a couple years.

 

As for the specific example, we can play that game all day with examples of going cheap every year, year after year, not working out. I'm not sure how that's better.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nick, do you really think Cole gets 35M/year?  The last two offseasons has had some pretty significant depression in FA signings.

 

You mentioned Darvish earlier... that was a good example. He got a lot less than everyone projected. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm sure Washington regrets Corbin.... For the right player, you have to go more than three years.

I am an advocate of them going 4-5 years for Wheeler or Bumgarner. However, year after year several posters insist signing the 5 year type guys is essential to winning. You and several others were quite incensed the Twins did not agree it was a no brainer to sign 2 of the high-end RPs. We would not be positioned to fill the holes we have in the rotation had the Twins FO agreed.

 

It would be great if proponents actually checked this premise to see how successful teams were constructed. This year the 4 teams with the best records in MLB had a total of one free agent on a 4+ year deal that produced 1.5+ fWAR. That was Chapman. Morton was signed on a 2-year deal and had 1.3 higher fWAR than Corbin. LaMahieu and Donaldson (2 years and 1 year) produced 10.3 fWAR. Machado and Harper produced 7.7 fWAR.

 

The 8 playoff teams had 102 players with 1.5+ WAR. Four of them were acquired via the type of contract you insist is critical to success. The Dodgers are a great case study. Go back 10 years. They signed the FAs you describe and traded for big name players. They went nowhere. The only FA player contributing 1.5 + fWAR last year were Intl free agents of modest cost. They had no players that were acquired as established MLB players. Of course, they do have an exceptionally high cost RP in Janzen but he was replacement level.

 

The lowest revenue teams (Oakland / Tampa Bay) had 6 FAs contributing 1.5+ fWAR. Four of them were 1 year deals and Two 2-year deals.  They had zero players acquired as established players and 12 between them acquired as prospects. They only had 5 players between the two teams that were drafted by the Rays/As.

 

The facts do not support your theory.

[Mike Sixel]

My theory includes signing your own players to big long term deals.

 

We are now only looking at the four best teams, then adding Oakland and Tampa in a different part of your argument? If another team could duplicate Tampa's success, they sure haven't been able to for two decades now, so it isn't that easy.

 

Washington had the highest paid starting pitching staff, two of whom were free agents. I doubt they regret either signing.

 

And, four years would be great, so I don't know what you are arguing....

 

As for LA..... They've had a pretty high payroll, and been a pretty great team. Are we only going by one year?

 

You agree this front office should sign a guy to the exact kind of deal I want, why are you arguing?

 

Also, Corbin produced 4.8 fwar last year.....

[Linus]

Thanks for the article. I got a good chuckle out of it.

[Major League Ready]

 

My theory includes signing your own players to big long term deals.

We are now only looking at the four best teams, then adding Oakland and Tampa in a different part of your argument? If another team could duplicate Tampa's success, they sure haven't been able to for two decades now, so it isn't that easy.

Washington had the highest paid starting pitching staff, two of whom were free agents. I doubt they regret either signing.

And, four years would be great, so I don't know what you are arguing....

As for LA..... They've had a pretty high payroll, and been a pretty great team. Are we only going by one year?

You agree this front office should sign a guy to the exact kind of deal I want, why are you arguing?

Also, Corbin produced 4.8 fwar last year.....

 

The point is that there are times (like now for the twins) it makes sense to sign 4+ yr free agents. However, it's not essential and you beat this drum constantly as if there is no chance without signing this type of deal.

 

Look at the highest contributors for LA.  All of them home grown. They had a high payroll for years because they were still paying for guys that had not played for them for a couple years. The one year argument is absolutely bogus. Again, you refuse to accept the obvious. They have averaged 96 wins over the past 7 seasons and they have an exceptional core of young players. They will continue to be good.

 

You bang the same drum without examining the models of success right before your eyes.

 

BTW ... I know Corbin produced 4.8 fWAR. Morton produced 6.1 on a 2-year deal.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Major League Ready

[Nick Nelson]

 

Nick, do you really think Cole gets 35M/year?  The last two offseasons has had some pretty significant depression in FA signings.

 

You mentioned Darvish earlier... that was a good example. He got a lot less than everyone projected.

The last two offseasons haven't featured a free agent starter remotely in Cole's class. Accounting for momentum, he might legitimately be the best free agent starting pitcher in history. I think the Twins would have to go at least $35m/yr to win a bidding war for him, yea. Darvish's checkered health history worked against him (as it should've, turns out).

 

 

I thought I was clear. You can't argue they need flexibility and that they should not spend that when they have it.

Who's saying that? Not me.

 

I'm all in favor of spending aggressively in free agency. I'd be very annoyed if they didn't. Problem is that there's nothing close to a sure-thing ace on the market after Cole and Strasburg, and everyone wants those guys. Trading is frankly a more proven avenue for acquiring legitimate rotation fronters, regardless of salary. 

 

Cole and Verlander? Both acquired via trade. Ace of last year's WS champs, Sale? Acquired via trade. Take a look at the lineage of division-winning aces in the AL Central alone: Kluber, Scherzer, Shields... all acquired via trade. And how many of those guys were brought in at a time where their value was anywhere near its peak?

The idea here is to look beyond what is readily evident. I dunno why you think anyone's arguing against signing good free agents. The purpose of this exercise was to think a little more creatively, that's all.