Article: Down on the Pond: Arizona Fall League

[Paul Pleiss]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1122-Down-on-the-Pond-Arizona-Fall-League

[Giles Ferrell]

Im surprised the comment section isnt filled with "Gibson should be in the starting rotation to begin next season!" yet...

[Paul Pleiss]

Pitching well in the AFL is a far cry from the big leagues, and while it is quite promising, the return from elbow surgery will surely encounter a few more hurdles before we see Gibson pitching with the big league club. I do, however, expect him to be up with the Twins early in the season if things continue to progress well.

[JP3700]

I hope they move Nate Roberts straight to New Britain and skip Fort Myers. I know injuries have held him back but he's going to be 24 and should be challenged.

[sorney]

I'm pretty sure Dozier tore it up in the AFL last year...we all saw how well that translated to the bigs the following season.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm pretty sure Dozier tore it up in the AFL last year...we all saw how well that translated to the bigs the following season.

 

He hit .296/.358/.454 (.811) with 8 doubles, 3 homers and 22 RBI in 26 games in the AFL last year. Not exactly tearing it up (for the AFL)

[Seth Stohs]

Im surprised the comment section isnt filled with "Gibson should be in the starting rotation to begin next season!" yet...

 

It's all I seem to hear!! Ha!

[Mike Sixel]

No one can give a good reason for him not to he up, if healthy.

[Kwak]

No one can give a good reason for him not to he up, if healthy.[/QUO

Let me see if I can't piece together a realistic scenario (or two) for that not to happen. Ryan stated three signings--I will assume these three have successful major league experience. Diamond would make four. Select one of the others from last year's rotation (after a solid ST), or for that matter, a two/three game window for Blackburn to demonstrate he belongs. That's five. If I've read the information correctly, Gibson has only made short starts, so some time seems necessary for Gibson to prove he would be solid for the 6-inning requirement. I predict Gibson after the 40-game mark (of the 2013 season) to be in the rotation--of course with the assumptions of his health and continued success.

[Seth Stohs]

Kwak... starters in the AFL rarely go more than 5 innings in any game, so I don't think that it's because he can't... and certainly has no indication on what he'll be able to do next spring.

[sorney]

I'm pretty sure Dozier tore it up in the AFL last year...we all saw how well that translated to the bigs the following season.

 

He hit .296/.358/.454 (.811) with 8 doubles, 3 homers and 22 RBI in 26 games in the AFL last year. Not exactly tearing it up (for the AFL)

 

 

I should have said relative to his future expectations as a player....

[Chance]

Dozier can still pan out... In his first 84 games in the majors he batted what, .234? With 6 home runs? I'm guessing on those numbers but the average is par with other twins middle infielders for the most part and 6 homers is much better than we usually get. He played half a season so there is still plently of hope he can work it up to around the .265 to .275 range with around 8-10 homers and that would be great for the twins.

[Winston Smith]

The last time a "Twins" prospect came up and stuck with the team, and I'll set the bar at 2 productive seasons is Span and he came up in 2008. Maybe I'm missing someone but isn't Garza the last starting pitcher to come up from our system to stick in the majors? He first came up in 06.

 

We have some guys now, Plouffe, Parmalee, Revere, Dozier and Diamond that might stick but they still have a small sample size (see Valencia). Isn't this the real problem we have right now, 4 full seasons without 1 of our position prospects and 6 yrs for a starting pitcher sticking for the long haul and helping the team?

 

Until this team proves it can again produce good quality major league players in their farm system I'll remain skeptical of all these guys.

 

If I missed somebody I apologize.

[Mike Sixel]

Winston making the point I have been making. People are in denial about this system.

[Paul Pleiss]

I don't know if people are in denial, I think most people will agree that the Twins do not have a lot of talent in the upper levels of their system.

[Seth Stohs]

I've always said that Twins fans got really spoiled there for awhile with top talent coming up each year. Baker, Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Liriano, Span and that was on the heels of the Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, years. Hopefully another run is coming here starting within the next year or so with Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Parmelee, maybe Plouffe can catapult up to a solid player, and then will come Rosario, Sano, and some of that tier... Likely there will be a name or two that will surprise us. I guess I just choose to be hopeful rather than dwell on the lack the last 2-3 years.

[bird]

People are not in denial. The system has failed to deliver premium talent for years. Winston's facts vback that up. Where some of us differ is in your extrapolation of the past into the future. It's OK to remain skeptical. Your choice. But some of us look at the pipeline and see hope for a year or two from now. Gibson, Hendriks, Parmelee, Dozier, Wimmers, Arcia, Hicks, Benson, Herrmann, Hermsen, Bromberg, Guerra, Florimon, Hauser, Darnell, Tosoni, Oliveros, Robertson, Hauser, Watss, Pugh, Bigley. These players reached AA and AAA. Some of them will become good players, and a couple may be stars. Now, this may not seem to be an impressive list if your expectation is several All-Star caliber players at thes levels, but it isn't all that bad. ANd then, another couple years away are Salcedo, Sano, Rosario, Boer, Michael, Roberts, Soliman, Kepler, Boyd, Goodrum, Harrison, Polanco, Santana, Summers, Morales, and a whole slew of 2012 draftees that performed exceptionally well this year, including Buxton and Berrios.

 

So, I don't mind Winston's appraisal of the past at all, but the insistence that future prospects are dreadful and that the organization is clueless gets pretty old.

[kab21]

Winston making the point I have been making. People are in denial about this system.

 

This is why the Twins are bad now but I think some have too high of expectations of player development. It's pretty common for teams to have several seasons of the draft not produce much. I think the FO noticed this started getting more aggressive internationally which has resulted in some pretty good prospects in the Twins system.

[johnnydakota]

Winston making the point I have been making. People are in denial about this system.

 

This is why the Twins are bad now but I think some have too high of expectations of player development. It's pretty common for teams to have several seasons of the draft not produce much. I think the FO noticed this started getting more aggressive internationally which has resulted in some pretty good prospects in the Twins system.

which is why they wiated for the salary cap of 2.9 million before they signed any this last june....codo

[Thrylos]

Winston making the point I have been making. People are in denial about this system.

 

This is why the Twins are bad now but I think some have too high of expectations of player development. It's pretty common for teams to have several seasons of the draft not produce much. I think the FO noticed this started getting more aggressive internationally which has resulted in some pretty good prospects in the Twins system.

which is why they wiated for the salary cap of 2.9 million before they signed any this last june....codo

 

Hold it.

 

They really had to outbid at least a couple of clubs to get Sano and they paid him big time.

 

And, for all Smith's shortfalls that have been exposed here and there, unfortunately nobody mentions that he is the one who re-turned the franchise into the latin american market big time. And this franchise has historically been a leader there from the 1910s till right about the Bay of Pigs era when they moved to Minny. Last important Latin American signee from that time was Tony O. Before Smith doing what he did signing Sano (about 50 years later - to put things into perspective,) the Twins were just non-players. Back in the day every Cuban wanted to come and play for the Senators (and Griffith's uncle/dad Clark) because they knew they will get a fair deal.

[johnnydakota]

yes even the knuckleballing fiedel castro ,but my point was if the twins wanted to make a big splash why didnt they sign players before the imposed salary cap?

you cant tell me cespedes wouldnt look good in right field?

are we even looking at the japenees kid or just watching tapes?

my other point was ryan was in charge, but bill smith did the day to day things and when there was a decision on a player or transaction then ryan would give his stamp of approval.....so infact everything comes back to ryan even though bill had the title of g.m.

[johnnydakota]

I've always said that Twins fans got really spoiled there for awhile with top talent coming up each year. Baker, Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Liriano, Span and that was on the heels of the Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, years. Hopefully another run is coming here starting within the next year or so with Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Parmelee, maybe Plouffe can catapult up to a solid player, and then will come Rosario, Sano, and some of that tier... Likely there will be a name or two that will surprise us. I guess I just choose to be hopeful rather than dwell on the lack the last 2-3 years.

 

and your thoughts on the 2004 draft? 5 first rounders

[kab21]

yes even the knuckleballing fiedel castro ,but my point was if the twins wanted to make a big splash why didnt they sign players before the imposed salary cap?

you cant tell me cespedes wouldnt look good in right field?

are we even looking at the japenees kid or just watching tapes?

my other point was ryan was in charge, but bill smith did the day to day things and when there was a decision on a player or transaction then ryan would give his stamp of approval.....so infact everything comes back to ryan even though bill had the title of g.m.

 

You don't remember Sano, Kepler and Polanco getting signed in one offseason? they didn't sign another million+ prospect until this year but they were still very active signing guys. Just because a team isn't signing a 3M guy doesn't mean that they aren't adding a lot of talent.

 

Cespedes is your argument? Really? He signed a 4/36M deal with a lot of risk and the Twins are loaded with OF'ers.

[Winston Smith]

Winston making the point I have been making. People are in denial about this system.

 

This is why the Twins are bad now but I think some have too high of expectations of player development. It's pretty common for teams to have several seasons of the draft not produce much. I think the FO noticed this started getting more aggressive internationally which has resulted in some pretty good prospects in the Twins system.

which is why they wiated for the salary cap of 2.9 million before they signed any this last june....codo

 

Hold it.

 

They really had to outbid at least a couple of clubs to get Sano and they paid him big time.

 

And, for all Smith's shortfalls that have been exposed here and there, unfortunately nobody mentions that he is the one who re-turned the franchise into the latin american market big time. And this franchise has historically been a leader there from the 1910s till right about the Bay of Pigs era when they moved to Minny. Last important Latin American signee from that time was Tony O. Before Smith doing what he did signing Sano (about 50 years later - to put things into perspective,) the Twins were just non-players. Back in the day every Cuban wanted to come and play for the Senators (and Griffith's uncle/dad Clark) because they knew they will get a fair deal.

 

I've often wondered why we were not in on the Cuban players. With Tony O still a hero there it would seem like we would have a great inside track. But yet I don't recall us ever signing a Cuban player and there have been a lot of them.

[kab21]

 

I've often wondered why we were not in on the Cuban players. With Tony O still a hero there it would seem like we would have a great inside track. But yet I don't recall us ever signing a Cuban player and there have been a lot of them.

 

For the last 20 years Cubans have been paid like FA's and then produced a pretty dismal track record. Combine that with a team that was a little too cheap (for everyone) and it's not a big surprise. I'm just glad the team isn't cheap when it comes to the Dominicans anymore. They have also been doing great in PR recently.

[Paul Pleiss]

Will any of the AFL players, aside from Gibson, see time with the Twins in 2013?

[righty8383]

Will any of the AFL players, aside from Gibson, see time with the Twins in 2013?

 

I think Tonkin has a shot. Then Herrmann, who is not longer playing in the AFL, could see some more time.

[Mr. Ed]

Gibson rocked Monday in Arizona.

 

Gave up 7 hits/6R in the 2nd inning. Included were 2 doubles and a triple.

[Paul Pleiss]

Tough inning for Gibson, but I continue to believe that he will be part of the Twins rotation early in 2013, probably not out of ST, but by sometime in May

[TRex]

I agree. I also wish there had been Pitch f/x data for that start so we could see whether his velocity was down, or if his pitches were elevated, or even if the batters hit good pitches. And Seth already indicated that there may have been some defensive miscues. I can't wait until his next start!