Front Page: Maybe the Twins Should Go All in On Anthony Rendon

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have suggested that the Minnesota Twins will be focused on impact pitching. That’s a great place to start. Their rotation needs significant additions to compete in a sport that just had two elite staffs square off in the World Series. What if they can’t assemble something that rivals an elite top three though? Does it make sense for them to further bolster an already strong lineup? How about doing so with superstar World Series champion Anthony Rendon.Obviously, this all hinges on how the organization views the immediate future of Miguel Sano. He’s the current starter at the hot corner and is coming off a .923 OPS during his age-26 season. The Dominican native is under team control for each of the next two seasons, and the expectation would be that his salary remains under $10 million before hitting the open market. Rocco Baldelli has an opening at first base if the club decides to non-tender C.J. Cron, and it’s always been assumed that Sano would be better off switching sides on the diamond.

 

Assume Miguel moves and vacates the hot corner, the timing may never be better. Rendon will play 2020 as a 30-year-old and is coming off an MVP caliber season. He posted a 1.010 OPS and launched a career high 34 home runs. Even with some regression, Rendon hasn’t posted an OPS below .900 since 2016. He’s consistently been a 6 WAR player and generates production through both offensive and defensive excellence.

 

In his final year of arbitration Rendon made $18.8 million for the Nationals. Fangraphs has valued his production as being worth roughly $50 million annually since 2016, and he hasn’t been worth less than $34 million since 2015. The open market isn’t going to pay him that handsomely but expecting a 5-7 year deal that checks in between $25-30 million on a yearly basis seems more than doable. Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado would be the only third basemen paid above Rendon, and that seems like a pretty fair place for him to slot into the leaderboard.

 

The downside to this argument is that Minnesota should be throwing a good deal of their cash at arms. If we assume they have something like $70 million to spend, chopping that almost in half by inking a position player isn’t a great use of funds. However, there’re only so many pitchers on the open market worthy of the big-time payday. Should Minnesota miss on Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, I’d expect only Zack Wheeler to surpass the $20 million mark. That means the Twins could sign a very good arm and still accommodate a contract enticing to Rendon.

 

By no means should the assumption or expectation be that the front office prioritizes a third basemen. Even if there’s a desire to move Sano defensively, other more economical options exist. If the goal is to raise the overall talent level to the highest possible extent though, adding a superstar like Rendon certainly bridges the gap between a superstar pitcher and just a middle of the rotation arm.

 

It’s hard to project the Twins as a serious player any time we’re talking about the best player on the market types, but we’ve entered the territory where the organization is ready to compete and do so at a World Series worthy level.

 

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[operation mindcrime]

When did RandBall Stu change his name to Ted Schwerzler?

[Penthang]

So I have been saying for a while now that the Twins need to improve there infield defense. They can either do that through player acquisition, coaching, or advancing better defense of players from the minors. This would be a signing that would improve their defense, as well as improve their offense. If he were to seriously entertain offers from the Twins this would be a good fit.

[D.C Twins]

No....we need not over complicate things....

 

The priorities are:

1. Playoff worthy starting pitching

2. Playoff worthy starting pitching

 

...and wait...what am I forgetting....oh yeah!

 

3. Playoff worthy starting pitching

[USAFChief]

Ive had the same thought, Ted.

 

If there's money enough for Cole, plus a couple starters like Odo and Pineda, then...

 

...since we're not getting Cole...

 

...there's money enough for Rendon, plus a couple starters like Odo and Pineda.

[goulik]

Cole or bust.

Rendon means we busted.

[darin617]

So you want to spend over 25-30% of the payroll on just 1 player?

 

That's also why Rosario is on the trading block. Poor defense and with the juiced ball we should have expected more output as well.  Fan favorite for sure, but not worth 9M+ a year.

 

Pay 5 players 15M a year and that account to 75M. Then with payroll usually around 130M that doesn't leave much for the other 21 players.

 

Twins need to hold onto a few of these players but it also would not hurt to pull a Tampa and trade some off and reload.

Edited November 1, 2019 by darin617

[Linus]

Ummm...no. As in hell no-it would be a complete waste of resources. Not an enlightened proposition

[Dantes929]

 

No....we need not over complicate things....

 

The priorities are:

1. Playoff worthy starting pitching

2. Playoff worthy starting pitching

 

...and wait...what am I forgetting....oh yeah!

 

3. Playoff worthy starting pitching

Two of our three starts were ok and that is without Pineda or giving Dobnak a chance to work himself out of a jam.    Our pen performed less playoff worthy and our offense was less playoff worthy still.   We scored less than 2.5 runs per game and a few of those were late and meaning little.      The teams that advanced averaged around 5 a game.   Ok, that said, yeah, I agree.  We need starting pitching most of all.  Rendon is pretty awesome though.

[Twins1964]

Cole or bust.

Rendon means we busted.

Twins will not come close to signing Cole. Period. Would put too many eggs in one basket.

[Aerodeliria]

 

Cole or bust.
Rendon means we busted.

...Edwin Jackson means we busted

[TL]

I’d do it!

• Upgrades and locks down 3b for 5 years instead of 2. 
• We are not signing 2 $30MM free agent pitchers. But, maybe he can influence Strasburg to sign here? 
• Can use Sano in a trade, perhaps for another starter, or move to 1b

[bighat]

 

Ummm...no. As in hell no-it would be a complete waste of resources. Not an enlightened proposition

 

Agree. Rendon's gonna want a huge contract and he's going to ask for at least 6-years.

 

He's a great player. But I just can't see a long-term deal for a guy who's already 30 years old working out, especially for the money he'll be asking. Then again, he could be the next Nelson Cruz....but I just don't see Rendon hitting 40 HRs at age 36.

 

If the Twins could get a 3-year deal or something, OK. I just don't see that being realistic.

[HrbieFan]

The only way Cole or Strasberg come here is if you start at $35m for 6-7 years. No way am I offering a SP 7 years north of $240m, the risk is too great. I would take Rendon at 6 $150m and use Rosario and a few positional prospects to trade for a SP.

[insagt1]

Rendon has said he would like to play near home, in Texas. He might even end up in Houston..which would be something wouldn't it? I doubt Twins would be on his list unless they overpaid to the max...which won't happen.

Twins won't get Cole either...unless their whole economic protocol changes drastically.

 

But I think everyone agrees, they need some arms. First.

[TopGunn#22]

If Rendon ended up in Houston what happens with Bregman and Correa ??  Do the Stro's move Bregman to SS fulltime and trade Correa ???

[Vanimal46]

I didn't know Rendon was a pitcher!

[specialiststeve]

As pretty much the Theme here... ALL IN in getting top end pitching. Need to sign one of the top stud pitchers. Of course Cole would be mine and everyone's priority. Love Rendon but not at the cost of not getting the best pitchers on the market. Our lineup is fine as is....

[diehardtwinsfan]

not a fan, but why not Donaldson if this is what they are thinking?

[brvama]

I was a sceptic at first but after some thought I could see this working. However, SP needs to be first addressed. Let’s suppose a trade is made for say Noah S of the Mets; sign Odorizzi and maybe Pineda or similar; now there is enough $$ for Rendon. (Or even Donaldson) They’ve addressed SP, shored up the defense and should have stayed within their budget. 

[Number3]

 

I didn't know Rendon was a pitcher!

If he was, he would be the next Walter Johnson the way he slings it from 3B. This thread is a non starter for 2 reasons. Twins should not even consider going after Rendon and Rendon would not consider playing for the Twins. Other than that, go for it. What the Twins don't need is 1 or 2 players making as much as the rest of the team combined as was the case in the #7 era. One thing that made the Nats so special this year was no one or 2 players dominating the lineup and no one except Scherzer (sp) on huge long term contracts. Scherzer is the rare breed who got the contract and then went out and grunted and groaned and earned every bit of it.

[Tomj14]

 

If he was, he would be the next Walter Johnson the way he slings it from 3B. This thread is a non starter for 2 reasons. Twins should not even consider going after Rendon and Rendon would not consider playing for the Twins. Other than that, go for it. What the Twins don't need is 1 or 2 players making as much as the rest of the team combined as was the case in the #7 era. One thing that made the Nats so special this year was no one or 2 players dominating the lineup and no one except Scherzer (sp) on huge long term contracts. Scherzer is the rare breed who got the contract and then went out and grunted and groaned and earned every bit of it.

Strasburg 7-year, $175 million

Corbin 6-year, $140 million.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Forgive me if I don't jump on the Rendon band wagon.  His price may be inflated due to his recent post season performance. The main reason I object to going after Rendon though is that AFL MVP Royce Lewis is on his way to 3B, possibly as soon as September 2020, or Lewis will go to to SS if there is an injury to Polanco, or to SS or 2B if Arraez is injured. Or if Sano is injured, to 3B..That would improve IF defense, give the Twinkies mas POSITIVE energy and a singles, doubles hitter, plus some much needed speed on the bases. Lewis was #1 for a reason. Now is the time to start, what Humphrey Bogart stated at the end of the movie, Casa Blanca: "Louis (Lewis), I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship".

[brvama]

Good point tarheeltwinsfan. We also have Travis Blankenhorn, while not A top prospect, who has seemed to turn the corner with his bat in AA, as a 1B-3B. He could be up before Lewis.

[bird]

 

If he was, he would be the next Walter Johnson the way he slings it from 3B. This thread is a non starter for 2 reasons. Twins should not even consider going after Rendon and Rendon would not consider playing for the Twins. Other than that, go for it. What the Twins don't need is 1 or 2 players making as much as the rest of the team combined as was the case in the #7 era. One thing that made the Nats so special this year was no one or 2 players dominating the lineup and no one except Scherzer (sp) on huge long term contracts. Scherzer is the rare breed who got the contract and then went out and grunted and groaned and earned every bit of it.

 

Yeah, the Nats have done a good job of benefitting from a position player lineup that's given them astounding production from a combination of cheap young guys like Soto, Robles, Turner, and Rendon, and cheap old guys like Kendricks and Suzuki, plus discards like Cabrera and Gomes.

 

But they haven't gone cheap, in either cash outlays or prospect payments, when it comes to pitching.

 

The Nats have committed to contracts totaling $545M for Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez. Granted, they only have two years left on Scherzer's 7 year $240M deal, Strasburg may or may not let them off the hook for the next 4 years at $25M per, Corbins deal is about $25M for another 5 years I think, and Sanchez is "cheap" at $10M for one more year I think.

 

They have given up a ton of future pitching value, that's for sure. Doolittle cost them Jesus Luzardo, ranked #23 in all of baseball as a prospect and now in MLB, and Blake Treinen, an all-star relief pitcher last year. Adam Eaton cost them ace pitcher Lucas Giolito plus Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, a 29th overall pick who the Twins would probably swap in a heartbeat for Balazovic. All three of these guys might be in the White Sox' rotation together in 2020 and be better than average.

 

They won because of Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg, no doubt, and Eaton and Doolittle were contributors. Good for them, but you can't say the price wasn't steep.

[Vanimal46]

Yeah, the Nats have done a good job of benefitting from a position player lineup that's given them astounding production from a combination of cheap young guys like Soto, Robles, Turner, and Rendon, and cheap old guys like Kendricks and Suzuki, plus discards like Cabrera and Gomes.

 

But they haven't gone cheap, in either cash outlays or prospect payments, when it comes to pitching.

 

The Nats have committed to contracts totaling $545M for Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez. Granted, they only have two years left on Scherzer's 7 year $240M deal, Strasburg may or may not let them off the hook for the next 4 years at $25M per, Corbins deal is about $25M for another 5 years I think, and Sanchez is "cheap" at $10M for one more year I think.

 

They have given up a ton of future pitching value, that's for sure. Doolittle cost them Jesus Luzardo, ranked #23 in all of baseball as a prospect and now in MLB, and Blake Treinen, an all-star relief pitcher last year. Adam Eaton cost them ace pitcher Lucas Giolito plus Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, a 29th overall pick who the Twins would probably swap in a heartbeat for Balazovic. All three of these guys might be in the White Sox' rotation together in 2020 and be better than average.

 

They won because of Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg, no doubt, and Eaton and Doolittle were contributors. Good for them, but you can't say the price wasn't steep.

If that's the price to pay to get a WS title I do that 10 times out of 10.

[awinter]

IF the Twins decided to go all in, this is a great move to make. Adding Rendon to the lineup could make the Twins the best lineup in baseball. Not only that, but filling a positional need through free agency allows the team to trade away some of their top prospects to acquire pitching talent. 

 

On the flip side of this, If the Twins are not going to upgrade their pitching through trade, don't make this move. 

[Tomj14]

 

If that's the price to pay to get a WS title I do that 10 times out of 10.

It seems people want the Twins to be the next Royals, Astros, Nats, until they realize all of those teams did more than call up their prospects. The price to get great players isn't cheap (either with prospects or Cash), thus winning the world series comes with a cost.

[bird]

 

If that's the price to pay to get a WS title I do that 10 times out of 10.

 

 

Well, sure you would, if you knew you'd get that WS title X out of 10 times.

 

The question is, what's your X number? You're rolling dice, not buying a pennant, right?

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you want to spend over 25-30% of the payroll on just 1 player?

 

That's also why Rosario is on the trading block. Poor defense and with the juiced ball we should have expected more output as well.  Fan favorite for sure, but not worth 9M+ a year.

 

Pay 5 players 15M a year and that account to 75M. Then with payroll usually around 130M that doesn't leave much for the other 21 players.

 

Twins need to hold onto a few of these players but it also would not hurt to pull a Tampa and trade some off and reload.

 

Tampa doesn't have three holes in its starting pitching, nor does it have obvious defensive holes. The Twins also have around 60-70 million in payroll space, just to get back to last year's total.