Front Page: Dealing with Wheeler Gets Minnesota an Ace

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason the Minnesota Twins chief focus is going to be on acquiring impact pitching. The front office has suggested as much, and with most of the lineup positions spoken for, it’s where spending money makes sense. Jose Berrios is the only returning arm at this point, and despite getting substantial levels of consistency from the group last year, Rocco Baldelli is going to need a unit that can raise the bar.Everyone knows what the top of the market will look like. Gerrit Cole is going to command a return that could make even Mike Trout and Bryce Harper blush. He’s been nothing short of exceptional, just turned 29-years-old, and may still have another gear to reach. There’s no guarantee that Stephen Strasburg becomes the second premiere arm, but logic suggests he’ll opt out of the final four years and $100 million of his current deal. Every team in baseball should be tripping over themselves to offer these guys a payday. If the Twins aren’t in on them it’s a problem, but if they get turned down anyway, they’ll need to pivot.

 

For the sake of this argument let’s assume that Derek Falvey offers either of those pitchers a blank check and neither takes the bait. All is not lost with Zack Wheeler still being in the picture. He’s not the arm either of those pitches is, and he is older than Cole, but the former Mets hurler may be the most underappreciated talent looking for a new home.

 

A former first-round pick, Wheeler has been a model of consistency when healthy. In his three full seasons he’s pitched at least 180 innings with strong strikeout numbers and an ERA firmly in the mid-3’s. For New York in 2019 his ERA crept up to a 3.96 mark, but the 3.48 FIP suggests he was likely victimized by one of the worst defensive teams in baseball.

 

Over the course of his career Wheeler has avoided the long ball and kept baserunners to a minimum. He’s not going to challenge for the league lead in strikeouts but the 195 in 2019 was a new career high. With the Mets he was consistently a 10% whiff rate thrower, and he’s expanded his chase rates each of the past two seasons. With an average fastball of 97.1 mph this past season, Wes Johnson should be salivating at the opportunity to take him to the next level.

 

You can bet that the Twins have done a decent amount of background work on Wheeler already. They were in talks with Brodie Van Wagenen regarding Noah Syndergaard, and there’s no doubt that Zack’s name likely was added into the mix. Now costing only dollars, he doesn’t come with the price tag of coveted pieces from within the system. The ability to add a starter with his repertoire and upward projectability is a rare scenario, and one that Minnesota can’t miss on.

 

Paying for pitching on the open market is largely a landmine of failed opportunity. Teams either find themselves looking to overextend for the best option or having to settle for a patchwork piece that doesn’t fit the mold. Developing pitching is the greatest path to sustainable success and being able to acquire someone like Wheeler who provides a fair mix of pay and future potential looks like a slam dunk.

 

Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg represent the outlier opportunity to add one of the 5-10 aces in baseball to your staff. Someone like Wheeler gives the Twins an avenue to have two aces of their staff and allow them to battle each other for that top spot.

 

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[DocBauer]

I honestly believe the Twins will look at both Cole and Strasburg. How could they not considering payroll and opportunity? Now, even 5-6yrs at $30M do they love Target Field, the young lineup, Rocco, Johnson, the FO, etc.? Or are either drawn to lower tax rates, a place they call home, etc?

 

The Twins then have to look at the 2nd level options. Not bad, just the next tier, to go a long with other moves. Is Wheeler that guy? I'm torn between him and Bumgarner. Bumgarner has a ton of IP, and is a couple years older. But he has experience, and STILL has good velocity. Could Johnson work a few bits of magic and tweaking and have him at least close to what he was previously? Somewhat similar to Verlander finding new life in Houston?

 

Wheeler hasn't had near the career that Bumgarner has had. But he's also about 4yrs younger.

 

It could be easily argued that Odorizzi, acquired for next to nothing at a similar age and point in his career, would be a similar comparison. And Oddo, a hopeful, and expected re-sign, in whatever capacity, probably has less pure "stuff" than Wheeler.

 

Playing devil's advocate, and just assuming we lose out on Cole and Strasburg, even with similar offers, is Bumgarner or Wheeler the next best choice?

[KirbyDome89]

Cole and Strasburg aren't turning down blank checks. If (when) MN doesn't land either, it'll be because they weren't the highest bidder. Period. 

 

Wheeler isn't near the pitcher Berrios is. Acquiring him isn't landing an ace. He's also closer in age to Gibson than Berrios. How long do the Twins have to wait for that "future potential?"

[Rigby]

Wheeler is less than a year younger than Bumgarner.

[Jham]

The real failure at the deadline the trade deadline this year may not have been the failure to improve or chances at and in the playoffs, but rather the missed opportunity to salvage the 2020 rotation. It certainly appears that we've left ourselves with too much to do.

[AceWrigley]

For the sake of argument, Wheeler and Madbum are the same age, but Bumgartner has over 1,000 more innings on his arm. He pitched 200 innings in his 21 year-old season. It's not always the age, it's the mileage (thank you Indiana Jones, baseball savant).

 

Quirky info: they were both signed as No. 1 picks of the Giants; Madbum in 2007, Wheeler in 2009. Heck, why choose. Sign both of them, and Pineda.

 

Rotation = Bumgartner, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler and Pineda. You could do a lot worse. It's not Verlander, Cole & Greinke or Scherzer, Strasburg & Corbin, but then again those 2 threesomes probably won't be together next year.

Edited October 18, 2019 by AceWrigley

[Vanimal46]

For the sake of argument, Wheeler and Madbum are the same age, but Bumgartner has over 1,000 more innings on his arm. He pitched 200 innings in his 21 year-old season. It's not always the age, it's the mileage (thank you Indiana Jones, baseball savant).

 

Quirky info: they were both signed as No. 1 picks of the Giants; Madbum in 2007, Wheeler in 2009. Heck, why choose. Sign both of them, and Pineda.

 

Rotation = Bumgartner, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler and Pineda. You could do a lot worse. It's not Verlander, Cole & Greinke or Scherzer, Strasburg & Corbin, but then again those 2 threesomes probably won't be together next year.

Doesn't that indicate Bumgarner has been way more durable over his career than Wheeler?

 

I wouldn't be opposed to either one for the Twins, but given the choice I would go Bumgarner 10 times out of 10 because of his durability and ability to pitch with his left arm.

[Steve Lein]

I'm certainly for going after Wheeler, I've said I want him and Bumgarner...

 

But he's not an ace. He's not even on Berrios level. I put him as a below average #2 starter or decent #3... when he's on. He goes through stretches just like Jose has where he's bad.

 

Wheeler's ERA was above 4.50 for about 2/3's of the season, while Jose was never above 4.00. Wheeler's WPA for the year was negative. At a -.42 mark versus Berrios being +1.9. 

 

Maybe the coaches can get more out of him, and I think that's fair to project a little (but not a certainty), and certainly improves the rotation, but let's not call Wheeler something he's not.

 

If you can't get Cole or Strasburg, Wheeler is a good option, but then it becomes you need multiple of him, so a Bumgarner in addition.

 

I would love to have a rotation of: Cole/Strasburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda/other FA, Internal rookies

 

But if you don't get that, you have to shoot for something like: Berrios, Bumgarner, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Pineda/Other FA/internal rookies.

 

You have the lineup, now fix the pitching. 

[Thegrin]

If I want to play on the West Coast, Minnesota could write a blank check and I would ignore it, because I know that a West Coast team will also write a blank check.

Sometimes, where you want to play is more important than how much money they will give you. 

[Shaitan]

Has Wheeler pitched in the post season? It seems like the other impact arms have. That experience isn't a deal breaker to me, but it's a nice perk.

[laloesch]

 

If I want to play on the West Coast, Minnesota could write a blank check and I would ignore it, because I know that a West Coast team will also write a blank check.

Sometimes, where you want to play is more important than how much money they will give you. 

 

Exactly. It's along the lines that people don't want to play for the Twins because it's Minnesota and the Twin Cities kinda like people don't want to play for the Sabres because it's welllll Buffalo.

[jkcarew]

I'd take Wheeler in a heart-beat. Like others, don't think he's any more of an ace that Berrios, but I'd take him. What I like about him is his relative consistency in getting into at least the 7th inning. I might like Burgarner more in the shortest term...but do worry more about the miles on his arm relative to Wheeler, despite being only one year older. It'll be interesting to see how many years Bumgarner gets.

[Mike Sixel]

The real failure at the deadline the trade deadline this year may not have been the failure to improve or chances at and in the playoffs, but rather the missed opportunity to salvage the 2020 rotation. It certainly appears that we've left ourselves with too much to do.

Not to mention at the start of the year, bringing in a number five starter instead of someone else. This mess is their own making.

[Trov]

I am not certain Strasburg turns down 4 years $100.  In the recent years of FA for pitchers, how many pitchers have got much more? Only a few pitchers are making more than $25M per season.  Many pitchers over last couple off seasons were thinking they would get that, and did not.  Yes, Strasburg is coming off very good year, most innings pitched his whole career and strike out/ walk rates are the same.  It will be interesting to see what he decides, but how much more than $25M a year over 4 will he be asking for?  Kershaw is getting $31M a year over next two, would he ask for 4 years $120, and will he get it?  The main thing going for him compared to Keuchel and Arrieta, both guys last two years hoping for huge pay day but did not get it, is Strasburg numbers have remained strong and he finally played full year.  

[bustedstuff88]

 

I honestly believe the Twins will look at both Cole and Strasburg. How could they not considering payroll and opportunity? Now, even 5-6yrs at $30M do they love Target Field, the young lineup, Rocco, Johnson, the FO, etc.? Or are either drawn to lower tax rates, a place they call home, etc?

The Twins then have to look at the 2nd level options. Not bad, just the next tier, to go a long with other moves. Is Wheeler that guy? I'm torn between him and Bumgarner. Bumgarner has a ton of IP, and is a couple years older. But he has experience, and STILL has good velocity. Could Johnson work a few bits of magic and tweaking and have him at least close to what he was previously? Somewhat similar to Verlander finding new life in Houston?

Wheeler hasn't had near the career that Bumgarner has had. But he's also about 4yrs younger.

It could be easily argued that Odorizzi, acquired for next to nothing at a similar age and point in his career, would be a similar comparison. And Oddo, a hopeful, and expected re-sign, in whatever capacity, probably has less pure "stuff" than Wheeler.

Playing devil's advocate, and just assuming we lose out on Cole and Strasburg, even with similar offers, is Bumgarner or Wheeler the next best choice?

 

They will indeed be looking at them but I believe its virtually a foregone conclusion already that neither Cole nor Strasburg want to pitch anywhere other than on a coast, which we are not. Ive already mentally moved on from these two, unfortunately.

[ewen21]

 

A former first-round pick, Wheeler has been a model of consistency when healthy.
 

And there's the rub.  He is 29 and missed THREE SEASONS in a row.  He had two decent years in a row, but he is in no way "an ace"

 

That said, he did have 23 games where he pitched six innings or more so the guy fits my profile for the kind of pitcher I want

 

 

 

Wheeler isn't near the pitcher Berrios is. "

"isn't near the pitcher Berrios is" is a little much.

Berrios is probably better, but it's closer than what you are saying

[Vanimal46]

And there's the rub. He is 29 and missed THREE SEASONS in a row. He had two decent years in a row, but he is in no way "an ace"

 

That said, he did have 23 games where he pitched six innings or more so the guy fits my profile for the kind of pitcher I want

 

"isn't near the pitcher Berrios is" is a little much.

Berrios is probably better, but it's closer than what you are saying

I find it ironic Wheeler is thought of as an ace with his injury history, and Bumgarner is dismissed because of too much milage on his arm.

 

Bumgarner has been way more durable in his career other than a couple of freak accidents (falling off a dirt bike hurting his shoulder, and getting drilled by a line drive on the mound).

 

Mileage on the arm doesn't appear to affect Scherzer, Verlander, and Grienke. I really think Bumgarner is one of those unicorns in baseball. A true work horse that can pitch 200 innings year in year out.

[Oxtung]

At what point do we come to understand that there is no such thing as "durable" in baseball? You're only "durable" until you're not. Ervin Santana, Nolasco, CC Sabathia, and a bunch of other pitchers were once considered "durable" too. Past experience is not a predictor of future success when it comes to "durability".

[notoriousgod71]

Quit trying to find a diamond in the rough and sign the best guy out there.

 

[Dantes929]

Did I miss something?   Have we signed Odorizzi and Pineda already?   If Wheeler and Buamgartner aren't better than Berrios then they are not better than Odorizzi and proebably not better than Pineda.   Get Odorizzi and Pineda signed, then get one of those other guys and roll with Graterol or Dobnak.  Then get one good reliever.   I ask for this with knowledge that the likelihood is they will do less.   Asking for 2 or three aces every year ignores the history of what the team has done, ignores the fact that there just aren't that many top tier pitchers and ignores the fact that there are 29 other teams that also want quality pitchers.    My fear is that there are a couple dozen GM's that are targeting the same guys mentioned on this board including Odorizzi and Pineda.

[Dantes929]

 

Quit trying to find a diamond in the rough and sign the best guy out there.

 

I don't know.   Cole was the diamond in the rough less than two years ago.   I'd like to find the next one.   There are probably a few.

[ewen21]

Quit trying to find a diamond in the rough and sign the best guy out there.

Getting swept as we did in the playoffs again doesn't make us any more attractive to top end starting pitchers entering the market. We will likely need to outbid the entire market whereas teams like Houston or NY (for example) won't need to try as hard. This is why I am not a big believer in signing pitchers for stupid money. I'd much rather swing a trade and watch a young guy grow with us rather than sign a guy for a term that is too long

[The Wise One]

I don't get the poo pooing of his skills  for Berrios on this board. Berrios  was 16th WAR,  24th era. fip 25 WPA 22.. I don't know but it would look like there are very few pitchers that pitched better than Berrios last year   Berrios's position  relative to the other pitchers was lightly lower in 2018. You can't say it is a one year flukey sort of thing. The dude has shown he can pitch. Is there some measure on than a Deus scit omnia type of reasoning that says he is not an Ace? So he is not an Ace, there are about 20-25 pitchers better than Berrios. Not many of them would be Aces either. what the heck is out there that is obtainable? Yes Cole, Strasburg  and Ryu are better than Berrios. One of the 3 will be on a winning World Series team to add to their pedigree. Even if 1/2 the teams are are not bidding that leaves 14 others teams to bid against, Are they obtainable?  Ryu with Boras as his agent and the twitter buzz goes like this Ugh.....Boras trying to spin Ryu as having “an arm of a 27 year old” is just so hokey and cheesy. Every Dodger fan wants Ryu back, but they’re not gonna empty the bank for a 33 yr old pitcher who been on the IL almost as much as he’s pitched in his entire MLB career. Nice try tho.  Speaking of Boras, Strasburg is his client. Other than a June contract do the Twins really want any  these players on a Boras contract?  So kindly enlighten with some logical method who is available and better than Berrios and what is the methodology of that proclamation.

[ewen21]

 

My fear is that there are a couple dozen GM's that are targeting the same guys mentioned on this board including Odorizzi and Pineda.

This is the issue and it has been one for years. We have desperately been looking for starting pitching for years because we can't seem to raise it ourselves.  At the same time high payroll teams are looking for starting pitching all the time because they can do it no matter how stocked some of them might be.  The free agents want to go to winning teams and those teams have bidding wars and then we are left in the dust unless we throw stupid money around.

 

A lot of people were really into throwing money at Yu Darvish and I think a lot of that was with "making a splash" and "getting a name guy". I think it is kind of a similar thing with Bumgarner.  Sorry, no thank you.  I get trying to acquire Wheeler, but if anyone thinks we have a shot at Cole it would need to be a deal that is literally more than any other team would offer.

 

 

 

Had we nutted up and played a much better series in NY or even won we would be a more attractive destination to free agents.  If a player has a choice they likely aren't interested in playing for a team that has no intention of doing anything beyond getting to the playoffs.  It is a real mess right now and this season that just ended for us needed to be a year where things were a bit different.  After winning 101 games we can't even be competitive in the playoffs.  Players know this about this organization and they aren't wasting time trying to "find the positives"

It is very hard to sell this team to free agents if we are going to be permanent postseason losers who insist that they are successful in spite not winning a damn post season game in 16 tries.  We end up with guys like Lance Lynn, etc....for a reason.

 

I don't think many fans are willing to accept this harsh reality.  Losing in the playoffs the way we did hurt our chances in this year's free agent market to get top flight guys.  Winning some postseason games would have helped

Edited October 19, 2019 by ewen21

[jorgenswest]

Is Wheeler better than Odorizzi? I wouldn’t put him in a tier above Odorizzi.

 

Wheeler gets a huge benefit pitching in an NL pitcher friendly park. He had 28 strike outs to no walks against pitchers. Both the park and the NL helped to extend his innings and give the perception he would go deep in games. Take out pitchers and his OPS against (712) was 45 points higher than Odorizzi. In Citi Field Wheeler’s OPS against was 658 vs 727 away from home.

 

Wheeler is better than Nolasco but the concerns should be the same. Nolasco came off a season pitching in the NL in a mix of neutral (Florida) and pitching friendly (LA) parks. He had about the same number of pitchers faced that included 23 of his strike outs. We found some hope in his FIPs that were better than his ERAs. His OPS against non pitchers that year was 706.

 

I think there is a better chance that he will be Nolasco than be transformed into an ace. I expect somewhere in the middle getting between 5-6 innings per start of a little better than league average pitching and then declining some age 32 and 33.

[mike8791]

Nice discussion!  And a needed one, too!  My two cents:

 

1.  Realistically, for all the good reasons listed by previous posters, there is no chance the Twins will land any of the elite FA starters available.  It's just not in the DNA of this franchise(and Falvine has no doubt absorbed this lesson all too well).

 

2. A Wheeler is not going to move the needle.  He is not an ace, but a good #3-type starter - and maybe less in the AL.  Rare has been the pitcher transferring from the NL to AL and improving performance.  Maybe once in a blue moon.

 

3.  The Twins have no current starter capable of  shutting down a high powered offense in a critical game.  Berrios is a good #2 or more likely #3, but has never demonstrated consistent ability to deliver an ace-like performance in a big game.    And to think at this stage in his career that he can make meaningful strides to stepping up in big games is nothing more than wishful thinking.

 

4, Even signing Odor and Pineda - which is such an obvious move if the Twins want to even come close to repeating their successful regular 2019 season - will not lead to any more  success in the playoffs.  They are unproven in big situations and likely what you have seen is what you will get going forward - good, solid pitchers but not a big improvement over Berrios.

 

5. The farm system offers little in the way of near term hope in improving this squad's playoff capabilities, especially with the organization's abject failure in developing any starting rotation players.  Granted, Falvey has made many organizational; changes but there is still no one on the horizon who looks like a sure-fire #1 0r 2, at least for the next 2-3 years.

 

6.  The only chance for really improving this rotation to playoff caliber is by a major trade, which will probably mean trading one of our two top prospects, as well as a bona fide major leaguer, like Sano, Kepler, Rosario, or Buxton.  Fortunately our lineup is strong now, we have some promising OF/1B/DH prospects that might fill the void adequately, and we have the payroll room to go after a high-salaried star.  The big question mark is whether Falvine are big enough risk takers to accomplish this.  Their inactivity at the trade deadline indicates not, even though the now legendary window was wide open.  Will the humiliation of the first round exit spur them to more aggressive behavior?  That is the big offseason question.

[Vanimal46]

We will likely need to outbid the entire market whereas teams like Houston or NY (for example) won't need to try as hard.

I can guarantee you the top free agents will go to the team that offers the most lucrative contract. That's how free agency works.

 

Here's a dirty little secret... You know why the Twins signed Nelson Cruz? Because they outbid the entire market.

[akmanak]

Quit trying to find a diamond in the rough and sign the best guy out there.

Best post of the entire thread. Spend the money and sign some good pitchers.

I still think they wont sign any superstars because they never have in their entire history. (Pitchers)

[ewen21]

I can guarantee you the top free agents will go to the team that offers the most lucrative contract. That's how free agency works.

 

Here's a dirty little secret... You know why the Twins signed Nelson Cruz? Because they outbid the entire market.

Yes and my point is when demand is high for top tier players we can't compete. Nelson Cruz is 40 and we got him on a 1 year deal. That's nice, but it's not the same as trying to land top tier pitching. There isn't a demand for Cruz as there is for Cole.

[Vanimal46]

Yes and my point is when demand is high for top tier players we can't compete. Nelson Cruz is 40 and we got him on a 1 year deal. That's nice, but it's not the same as trying to land top tier pitching. There isn't a demand for Cruz as there is for Cole.

They can compete. They just choose not to. I hope that changes this year.