Front Page: Handing a Qualifying Offer to Michael Pineda

[bird]

This is a tough call. On the surface, I'd take that $13M risk and sign him as my #6/injury insurance guy. Then I'd pretend he doesn't exist as I build out the rotation with the idea that only one slot goes to an internal candidate such as Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer. (I want 10 options for the rotation that don't make me vomit on my spreadsheet).

 

But, this guy's cheated before, right? SO, I want to get a sense that he feels at least somewhat contrite about how royally he screwed over his teammates and his organization. I want him to want to belong and to make amends. I want loyalty. I want him excited to take advantage of his suspension time and promise to be a hard worker and good influence on the other rehabbing players with him in Fort Meyers. I want him to embrace a regimen that gets him back to MLB in terrific physical shape so that he never, ever thinks about cheating his teammates and his organization again.

[Steve Lein]

Yeah I'm not giving Pineda a qualifying offer when he can't expect to get anywhere near that money on the open market. You'd be well overpaying even if it's just a one year deal.

 

Give the QO to Odorizzi, but just flat out sign Pineda for something like 2 years $18-20MIL, with a $12MIL/500K buyout option.

 

Love to have him as a mid-to-back end option, but hard no on qualifying offer to him.

[DannySD]

It would be great to have him for 3 years. We need someone to start playoff games in Yankee stadium. 

[howieramone2]

 

Yes, by all means lets use a chunk of our scarce financial resources on an aging player with a long injury history coming off of a suspension! We can just count on his career-best 2019 season is the new normal, and give him a multi-year contract, just like Phil Hughes! 

 

Who's with me! 

 

Pineda was a nice story for part of the year, but unless he's willing to take a team-friendly deal (and really, why should he), we can move on. 

It's not at all like Phil Hughes. He had a great year, our FO was very savvy to sign him to an extension. Then injuries derailed his career, as it has some many others. Injuries are part of the game, hindsight isn't.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Like I said upthread, I think Pineda will get suspension credit starting opening day, even if he doesn't sign a contract before then (see Cody Stanley, 2015-2016). So he could be active immediately upon signing in June, although he'd miss out on spring training and the 15 day minor league assignment which isn't insignificant.

 

The JDA has been adjusted since then, but I can't find specific verbiage either way.

 

He would be eligible for Spring Training and would get up to 12 days in the minors.

[Dave Overlund]

 

It's not at all like Phil Hughes. He had a great year, our FO was very savvy to sign him to an extension. Then injuries derailed his career, as it has some many others. Injuries are part of the game, hindsight isn't.

Why was it a savvy move? He had one good year and still had two years left on his contract. They signed him with the lowest leverage they could possibly have had at that point! 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Yes I hope they attempt to sign him - and I would give the QO if necessary. Playoffs this year prove what we all know. You cannot have enough quality pitching. Cannot. Love to see what the Nats did - after Harper. Pitching rules the day in October. 

You can never have enough good pitching.  Every manager knows this, from little league to the majors. Good pitching is rare. The teams that are still in it have ii. Houston, wow.  And for all the talk about the Yankees staff being average, we have not seen that. They have pitched great.  Tanaka has been a sure thing. The BP is great. But Houston's pitching is better.

 

The Twins best years came when we had 2 guys at the top of the rotation that were as good as anybody.

There is a message in that. You need 2 studs to compete for a WS ring.  Cole and Verlander, for example

 

I'd offer Mike $22 million for 2 years. I think he want to stay. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The JDA has been adjusted since then, but I can't find specific verbiage either way.

 

He would be eligible for Spring Training and would get up to 12 days in the minors.

Here's the current JDA:

 

http://www.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf

 

He gets up to 15 days in the minors, since his suspension was 51+ games (see page 46).

 

And given the Cody Stanley example and the lack of any specificity in the current JDA, I assume that part is still the same and unsigned games would still count in this case.

[yarnivek1972]

Although, assuming Pineda's suspension will suppress his market quite a bit on its own, would the Twins be better off trying to sign him for a similar amount *without* the QO? Then we'd have the option to QO him after 2020 instead, if his performance warrants it, of course. (Or we could leverage a second year option or something?)

 

Of course, Pineda might play hardball and try to draw the QO this offseason, so it would be off the table when he hits FA again next winter.

There is no way Pineda would WANT to receive a QO, especially because he will already have one less month to earn his next check.

 

If Pineda is QO’d, I see almost no way another team goes after him knowing he misses more than a month AND losing the pick.

Edited October 16, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[brvama]

 

I laid out in the article that he wouldn't actually be paid $17MM. It'd be just under $14MM, and that is what his market should be near.

Ted, that’s exactly what I understood from your article. Still, I feel a pro-rated QO is too much and as others have said, it’s unlikely he would command that on the open market. I am fully on board bringing him back and we should be able to negotiate a more friendly deal. He’s said he likes MN and IMO probably has some regret what he did to the team. Given that assumption, there’s a reasonable chance he resigns. 

Edited October 16, 2019 by brvama

[cardsfan]

Incentive contract only. Can he beat the best teams?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Here's the current JDA:

 

http://www.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf

 

He gets up to 15 days in the minors, since his suspension was 51+ games (see page 46).

 

And given the Cody Stanley example and the lack of any specificity in the current JDA, I assume that part is still the same and unsigned games would still count in this case.

 

I was operating under his remaining suspension (37 games), not the original length, so 15 may be accurate. 

[Steve Lein]

 

There is no way Pineda would WANT to receive a QO, especially because he will already have one less month to earn his next check.

If Pineda is QO’d, I see almost no way another team goes after him knowing he misses more than a month AND losing the pick.

 

I would love the QO if I was Pineda. I'd sign it in less than 1 second. 

 

Which means that's a bad way to utilize a qualifying offer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is no way Pineda would WANT to receive a QO, especially because he will already have one less month to earn his next check.

If Pineda is QO’d, I see almost no way another team goes after him knowing he misses more than a month AND losing the pick.

If Pineda doesn't mind coming back to Minnesota, the QO is clearly his best bet. Even with the suspension, he gets a 1 year, ~$14 mil deal, and a guarantee that he'll be a free agent again next winter with no possibility of ever getting another QO. That's probably better for him than a lot of the 2 year deal ideas floated around here. (If he actually had a chance at a longer-term, big-money deal this winter, he wouldn't want the QO -- but I don't think he really has that chance right now, given the circumstances.)

 

Obviously, if he doesn't want to come back to Minnesota for some reason, he wouldn't want a QO from us either, but I have no reason to believe that he would want to get out of Minnesota that badly.

[Ted Schwerzler]

There seems to be a lot of certainty that Pineda won't do better on the open market. I don't know that I agree with that. Here's some deals from 2019:

 

Happ 2/$34MM

Lynn 3/$30MM

 

Even Matt Harvey got $11MM after a two terrible seasons.

 

If you can get Pineda on a QO committing to him for just a year at $13.8MM or whatever it is, there's nothing wrong with that.

[Cody Pirkl]

Bring him back. If he's your 3 or 4 you're looking at a strong rotation. Another year recovered from TJ and if he gives you anywhere near what we got last year, it'd be a steal.

[Bomba2026]

So since my opinion got yanked let me rephrase my comment....If Mike shows up to a contract meeting or Spring Training looking like a million bucks, I'd resign him for way less with incentives. I would judge his attitude, his fitness outlook and goals and go forward from that point on how he would fit in on the 2020 team. Hope this is ok, I just like to condense my thoughts!

[Oglivie]

He’s an older player that got paid by the twins to rehab and then got busted for a banned substance.  His action clearly hurt the Twins playoff run. And he gets rewarded with $17 million?  I don’t care if he doesn’t get paid for 35 games this is a lousy message to players and a bad game plan for the Twins.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22825272/minnesota-twins-ss-jorge-polanco-suspended-80-games-drug-violation

 

Have you spoken out against the five-year deal they gave Jorge Polanco?

 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd give it to him. 

 

I don't care about the Pohlad's money. Who cares if you might be able to get him for 2/25 or 3/40 or whatever. Give him the QO and he's here almost for sure. Plus if he sucks, then you let him walk after a season.

 

The only thing I would be leary about would be that whatever he was taking was helping his performance. There is almost no doubt in my mind he was using performance enhancing drugs. 

 

How often are you able to sign 31 year old pitchers with his numbers to a one year deal? It's fairly rare I'd say. Just give him the QO and be done with it. 

[Oglivie]

Yes, by all means lets use a chunk of our scarce financial resources on an aging player with a long injury history coming off of a suspension! We can just count on his career-best 2019 season is the new normal, and give him a multi-year contract, just like Phil Hughes! 

 

Who's with me! 

 

Pineda was a nice story for part of the year, but unless he's willing to take a team-friendly deal (and really, why should he), we can move on.

 

Scares financial resources? You do realize that right now the Twins only have $38 million to their payroll and you can take 7.5M out of there after they let Martin Perez walk for 500k instead of paying him 7.5M

 

[SarasotaBill]

1. QO Pineda

2. QO Odorizzi

3. Sign or trade for an impact pitcher

4. Limit Graterol innings in the minors (two to three months) so he can pitch into October.

5. Groom top pitching prospects for 2021 

[Mike Sixel]

1. QO Pineda

2. QO Odorizzi

3. Sign or trade for an impact pitcher

4. Limit Graterol innings in the minors (two to three months) so he can pitch into October.

5. Groom top pitching prospects for 2021

Who makes Pineda's first seven to eight starts? Do you think they'll win even a third of those?

[SarasotaBill]

 

Who makes Pineda's first seven to eight starts? Do you think they'll win even a third of those?

 

Yes - a mixture of the following

 

Dobnak

Smeltzer

Stashak

Thorpe

Use of bullpen games like the Rays

Sanchez/Oliver low cost FA

[jgfellows]

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22825272/minnesota-twins-ss-jorge-polanco-suspended-80-games-drug-violation Have you spoken out against the five-year deal they gave Jorge Polanco?

I would have if they were gong to give him 17 million bucks for a year.  And this is apples and oranges I’m not against signing Pineda.  I’m against a qualifying offer when he screwed his team over.  I would bet there’s more than a few in the Twins clubhouse who would agree with me, maybe even Polanco.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes - a mixture of the following

 

Dobnak

Smeltzer

Stashak

Thorpe

Use of bullpen games like the Rays

Sanchez/Oliver low cost FA

Not Dobnak, he's a full time starter under this plan.

[Vanimal46]

If the QO is really needed I guess I do it. Regardless, I will advocate to retain big Mike. He was the best pitcher in the rotation from June until his suspension. Arguably should have been the game 1 starter against the Yankees if he was eligible.

[USAFChief]

Pineda isnt getting $14m next year. He'd jump for joy over a QO.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Yes - a mixture of the following

 

Dobnak

Smeltzer

Stashak

Thorpe

Use of bullpen games like the Rays

Sanchez/Oliver low cost FA

 

Not to mention that, in looking at the schedule, there are six off days during his suspension. If they chose to keep Berrios, Odo (hint, hint), _____, and Dobnak on a five-day pattern, it appears that they could conceivably get by with just six starts from the No. 5 guy in Pineda's absence.

 

In other words, I agree -- there's flexibility, and I'm not overly worried about the suspension in itself. Realistically, the drop from Pineda to one of those guys over six (or even eight, if they pitch well and you don't skip the spot) starts is probably not worth more than a game or two. 

 

Not to mention that some have named a concern that he's never pitched more than 175 innings since 2016. Well, gee, I guess we just found a way to limit his innings. 

 

I don't know salaries well enough to know if QO dollars are the right figure (though I tilt toward yes, given the overall amount of budget available), but I do like pursuing him if due diligence addresses the chemical issue and the clubhouse issue. 

 

 

 

[Dave Overlund]

 

Scares financial resources? You do realize that right now the Twins only have $38 million to their payroll and you can take 7.5M out of there after they let Martin Perez walk for 500k instead of paying him 7.5M

Do the Pohlads still own the team? Yes? Then the financial resources are indeed scarce. 

[MMMordabito]

Screw Pineda