Front Page: The Future Value of Luis Arraez

[mikelink45]

I'll take him.  In this era the HR stroke is over rated and the batting eye is under rated.  He is a disciplined hitter who provides a constant on base presence.  In addition, in this era of shifts, who know what a 2B should look like?  I will be rooting for Luis for a long time - hopefully as a Twin.

[jrod23]

My advice for any and all people, is JUST ENJOY IT!!!  What we're seeing with Arraez is simply amazing.  Don't let stats that support his faults cause you to think he's insufficient at 2B.  He's fearless.  There's no stat for that.  He's unorthodox.  No stat for that.  He's who I want to see up when we have runners on second and third.  No stat for that.  He's who I want up to start an inning when we need a runner on in the 9th.  No stat for that.  Has he failed?  Yes, but far less than many.  He gets the job and excels at it.  Throw your numbers that oppose him out the window, and just let this kid play.

[yarnivek1972]

So he'll be on the team for the next 7-8 years at a team friendly price...

He’s already guaranteed to be on the team the next 6 years (through 2025) and likely for well under $20 mil.

Edited September 18, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Bomba2026]

I'd lock this kid up with a long contract now. He reminds me of Rod Carew who I was fortunate enough to watch play his entire career. No one ever expected him to hit a homerun but they knew there was a pretty good chance he would get on base when he came up to bat. With Oliva and Killebrew beind him, that setup did pretty well. He will improve in every area as he plays, but sometimes you are just born with that baseball gene. I like his attitude and being around guys like Cruz will only make him better.

[jrod23]

 

...but sometimes you are just born with that baseball gene.

 

This sums it up.  I've thought this in the depths of my feeble baseball mind for the past 4 years, but he's about as "can't miss" as they come.

[yarnivek1972]

I’m not sure what his ceiling is, but his floor is incredibly high IMO. In an era where most hitters swing and miss a lot, a guy that does not is not going to struggle finding a job if they competently play a position.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Joe Mauer was in the majors at 21 and as a 22-year old hit .294 for the Twins.

 

Yeah, my bad, I did my math wrong and pulled his 2002 numbers (I had just looked at Cruz, so I had 1980 in my head).  Here are the actual numbers, 100% in MLB

 

.294/.372/.411/.783 in 554 PA's, 26 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 6.5% XBH Rate, 73 BB, 64 K, 1.14 BB/K

 

Arraez maintains his advantage in OBP, and actually has a better bb/k ratio than Joe did, but falls behind Joe in the XBH rate, but remains ahead in slugging due to his better batting average.  I still think the point remains, Arraez' numbers as a 22 year old can hold their own against Altuve and Mauer at the same age.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Right - but you don't offer that kind of contract to a guy with under 300 career ABs at the ML level.

 

Let's let this thing ride out a little more before we start shelling out more money than is even necessary at this point. 

 

Plate discipline and control of the strike zone are skills unlikely to erode--neither is his elite contact ability (at least not until he approaches, if not hits, his 30's).  Luis is, among players with 300+ PA's this year, 1st in out-of-zone contact, 5th in in-zone contact, 1st in overall contact, and 2nd in swing strike rate, all while making only 11.3% soft contact (16th).  Arraez is about as good a candidate there is to maintain the tools that are his skills, ability to get hits and have a high OBP.

 

The reason you give Arraez a contract now is because that's how you get it really cheap.  For example, back in April, the Braves gave Acuna an 8 (or 10) year contract for $100M (or $134M) after only 487 PA's in the Bigs.  How much more do you think the Braves would have to pay if they tried to do an extension after Acuna put up a 5 WAR season in his age 21 season?  I'm not saying Arraez is the player Acuna is--I'm saying the philosophy of doing deals early is how you get deals that look like steals.  After all, if you pro-rate Arraez' WAR to a 150 game season, he's a 4 WAR player.

[nicksaviking]

Unless they're MVP candidates, extending young players is still cheap until at least year three, and if Arraez isn't playing a premium position and doesn't possess at least league average power, his arbitration figures probably aren't even going to be very high. Giving him $25M now to buy out two free agent years instead of $35M in 2021 doesn't seem like a great bargain when you factor in the risks of regression, or the possibility of significant injury.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Plate discipline and control of the strike zone are skills unlikely to erode--neither is his elite contact ability (at least not until he approaches, if not hits, his 30's).  Luis is, among players with 300+ PA's this year, 1st in out-of-zone contact, 5th in in-zone contact, 1st in overall contact, and 2nd in swing strike rate, all while making only 11.3% soft contact (16th).  Arraez is about as good a candidate there is to maintain the tools that are his skills, ability to get hits and have a high OBP.

 

The reason you give Arraez a contract now is because that's how you get it really cheap.  For example, back in April, the Braves gave Acuna an 8 (or 10) year contract for $100M (or $134M) after only 487 PA's in the Bigs.  How much more do you think the Braves would have to pay if they tried to do an extension after Acuna put up a 5 WAR season in his age 21 season?  I'm not saying Arraez is the player Acuna is--I'm saying the philosophy of doing deals early is how you get deals that look like steals.  After all, if you pro-rate Arraez' WAR to a 150 game season, he's a 4 WAR player.

 

Yarnivek did the work for me - the Twins don't need to do that deal, right now, given how cheap he will be for the foreseeable future. They can revisit it down the road in a couple of years if he sustains the success, but at this point, you do not give a guy $5 million AAV that has less than 300 career ABs. Just foolish.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Arraez seems to be one of those players where the eye test tricks you into believing he's a good defender because his situational awareness is good and he rarely does dumb things while occasionally doing really smart things.

 

I think that situational awareness masks that he has below average range and a meh arm. But hey, having good situational awareness and mediocre athleticism is better than having bad situational awareness and mediocre athleticism.

 

But it also leads me to believe it'll be hard for him to improve much defensively because his problem seems to be physicality, not baseball instincts.

[ScrapTheNickname]

I'm very surprised to learn that the mlb writer holds Arraez in such low esteem. I think he's much better than ranking 29th rookie with the best future. I guess singles hitting, high OBP players are just out of fashion.

 

On the other hand, I do secretly worry about his legs (knee?). He's simply not fast, and maybe his legs aren't up to par. Or maybe he's just quirky and it doesn't mean anything.

Edited September 18, 2019 by ScrapTheNickname

[TheRealCupOfJoe]

His plate discipline is astounding. I love to watch this kid. His stature is very Puckett-like. Don't discount power potential. Kirby hit 4 HR at age 25 in 691 AB's. The following year, he hit 31 dingers. His defense hasn't been terrible - I'd take it over Polanco's any day. It'll improve with time.

 

[Tomj14]

 

Yeah, my bad, I did my math wrong and pulled his 2002 numbers (I had just looked at Cruz, so I had 1980 in my head).  Here are the actual numbers, 100% in MLB

 

.294/.372/.411/.783 in 554 PA's, 26 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 6.5% XBH Rate, 73 BB, 64 K, 1.14 BB/K

 

Arraez maintains his advantage in OBP, and actually has a better bb/k ratio than Joe did, but falls behind Joe in the XBH rate, but remains ahead in slugging due to his better batting average.  I still think the point remains, Arraez' numbers as a 22 year old can hold their own against Altuve and Mauer at the same age.

lets not get too far ahead of ourselves, Mauer was 23 (kind of cool their birthdays are 10 days apart) when he was an all star, won a batting title and was 6th in the MVP voting and Altuve was an all start at age 22. (both were better base runners and had a bit more power)

With that being said I think he has a chance for a batting title or two and maybe a couple of all star games, I don't think his future is yearly all star games because he doesn't hit the homers everybody loves, but a really high batting average could sneak him into a couple.

If he doesn't keep a high batting average and on base percentage he could become a liability, but it looks like the Twins have a low cost starter for a few years to come.

[Tomj14]

Just went over the list again, they have him as the 5th or 6th or 7th  (if you include Senzel and Chavis) at 2B in the list with 3 of them being in the American league. It might be much harder than I initially thought of him making the all star team with Altuve and Torres as well.

[yarnivek1972]

Not everyone can be an all star. Nor do the Twins need a team of 10 all stars. Sometimes being a contributor is all that is needed.

 

I think of Pat Meares. He didn’t do anything exceptionally well. But he also didn’t do anything poorly. He just showed up everyday, made most of the plays he should have made and every now and then helped his team with the bat. That’s just who he was. I see no reason why Arraez can’t be that type of player.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I'd lock this kid up with a long contract now. 

 

Curious why you would do that with so much team control left? It'd be extremely foolish IMO to offer him a long term deal right now. Let it play out. No sense in paying him tons when we can use him up for cheap for quite some time yet. 

[Riverbrian]

 

My eye sees well below average lateral range that can not be compensated for by playing deeper without a strong arm.

The DRS and UZR are real and more reliable than a batting average for future projection at this point. Neither is near enough sample. I think we can be confident in the on base skills that have been consistent throughout his professional career. I think we have also seen the quality of his approach at the plate. It shouldn’t be ignored that there also have been questions about his arm and range over his professional career.

His bat will play. Like Sano at 3B he is OK at 2B for now but may need to move down on the defensive spectrum as his career progresses.

I will leave with a thought for another article. Is the defensive spectrum changing due to the increase in fly balls and the data used to shift infielders. Will corner Of spots be more important defensively than 3B and 2B with this evolution? Maybe 2B is the perfect spot for Arraez.

 

You always post quality stuff and when you posting stats, I always know that you are well informed. 

 

However, I'm not sure that I can buy any statement that states that defensive metrics are more reliable than offensive metrics. 

 

Both have volatility but unlike offense... the primary data that goes into defensive stats are routine plays which makes each (not routine) play carry much more weight than an 0-4 night at the plate. And it is going to take a lot of routine plays to reverse the damage done by one play not made that is caught by 95% of all fielders for example and as you mention... the extreme shifting is changing what 95% of all fielders means because they are no longer starting in the typical spots. 

 

Currently Marwin for example:

 

UZR 5.0 in LF 23 plays

UZR -2.9 in RF 40 plays.

 

Anything that presents this big a difference between LF and RF is small sample related. 

 

In the case of Arraez, his playing time is split between 2B, 3B, LF and SS which makes each UZR or DRS number questionable due to insufficient data. 

 

Also... The ability to play 4 positions is value in itself but it's a value with no number to quantify it. 

 

I've watched him play a lot this year. At no point have I said to myself... Rosario would have had that, Schoop would have had that or Sano would have had that.

 

It's my opinion that Arraez is not a defensive liability. Actually a defensive asset because of his ability to make the routine plays at multiple positions. 

 

[Jham]

Curious why you would do that with so much team control left? It'd be extremely foolish IMO to offer him a long term deal right now. Let it play out. No sense in paying him tons when we can use him up for cheap for quite some time yet.

Because there's a possibility this isn't his break out season..

 

I'm not saying I'd bet on it. But batting titles tend to catch the eye. If he's leading the league in hitting he probably makes the All Star team. If he's winning batting titles and playing average defense, he's probably a gold glove candidate. Dozier won one. If he does this while hitting 15 HR, he's probably an MVP candidate. Agents and arbitrators notice these things.

 

Regression is also a possibility. But if you had to bet on whether Arraez will hit Altuve HR or Sano will hit for Altuve avg, which would you bet? The HR may be more valuable than the avg. But young contact hitters adding power, even elite power happens every year. Power hitters adding elite contact is rare.

 

It's a gamble with conflicting metrics. To boot, we have several other big investments to make which may keep us from being able to extend him if he does blow up, but may also be of greater priority in the present sense. Interesting.

 

If it's me, I wait. We already have some fairly 1 sided extensions which are likely to cause some tension going forward.

[Tomj14]

 

 

It's my opinion that Arraez is not a defensive liability. Actually a defensive asset because of his ability to make the routine plays at multiple positions. 

I have harped on the front office, but I think that is one of the strengths, playing players at different spots in certain games so they don't get exposed defensively. I think if they put Arraez out in left field for 140 games people would have a much different option of him then putting him out there when a certain pitcher is pitching or against a certain team. 

(Grossman didn't look that bad either in the outfield in spot starts)

[jrod23]

 

Curious why you would do that with so much team control left? It'd be extremely foolish IMO to offer him a long term deal right now. Let it play out. No sense in paying him tons when we can use him up for cheap for quite some time yet. 

 

Right now the collective bargaining agreement heavily favors the owners.  It MIGHT be responsible of us to actually lock him up this year.  The next CBO could get younger players comped sooner.

[yarnivek1972]

Right now the collective bargaining agreement heavily favors the owners. It MIGHT be responsible of us to actually lock him up this year. The next CBO could get younger players comped sooner.

The owners will lock players out before giving up three years of paying next to nothing for players.

[Tomj14]

 

I think of Pat Meares. He didn’t do anything exceptionally well. But he also didn’t do anything poorly. He just showed up everyday, made most of the plays he should have made and every now and then helped his team with the bat. That’s just who he was. I see no reason why Arraez can’t be that type of player.

Pat Mears played 8 years and had less than 5 total WAR, if he ends up as Pat Mears I think that would be considered a disappoint after this year, now going into the year I think most would have said that would be great. Also the some want to extend him right away, that would be a huge mistake if he ends up as Mears.

But yes he doesn't have to be awesome to be valuable.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I don't understand why Rocco doesn't have him batting leadoff every game. He takes the best at-bats on the team. He gets on. He takes pitches allowing others to see pitches.

Starting every game with a 42% chance of immediately putting the opposing pitcher into the stretch seems like a good idea to me. I'd like to watch that for the next ten years or so.

I'm a fan. #29, my ass

#29 is a good number in Twins history. This guy even hits like him a little

[Kelly Vance]

 

This.  

Just think there is a lot of hype and good feelings toward a feel good story.  Everyone get's to love the guy, or not, it's everyone's choice on this site.

 

However, like Tom, I like to sprinkle a little bit of let's give this guy a year or two before we put terribly unreasonable expectations on him.

 

He's been great this year and a breath of fresh air.  However, I do not think he's going to be a star.  I hope he is, but I think he is more likely not going to be, due to the many things Tom listed above.

 

We have suggestions stating we should have traded Lewis for a true #1 because we have Luis (lot's of problems with that statement).  Sign him to a 7 year deal, to playing him at 3rd base permanently.  Just way too early for us to be making these kinds of assumptions.

 

My vote, is he really doesn't have a ton of value, until he can do this over an entire year.  He certainly gives the team hope though.

Well, look, over half a year Polanco hit like this and he was the starting All Star SS.   I think a half year is long enough sample size to project that the kid can be a .300 hitter. There aren't too many of those. 

 

I am all in on Luis

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

He’s already guaranteed to be on the team the next 6 years (through 2025) and likely for well under $20 mil.

 

Incorrect.  He will cost about $1.1M the next two years, but if we assume he will continue to hit above .300 with an OBP in the .360 to .380 range, he will likely get somewhere around $20M in his 3 arb years (say $4M, $7M, and $10M as not unreasonable numbers).  That's $21M for 5 years, after which he would be a free agent--the first two years of that deal would at that point surely by $10M-$12M a year.  In this scenario, he would be following Kris Bryant (3 years at the minimum, FA after 6 years).  If he has three more years after this one of team control, the story does change a little bit.

 

5 more years of control--somewhere in the neighborhood of $45M over the next 7 years

6 more years of control--somewhere in the neighborhood of $33M over the next 7 years

 

You sign him to a 7 year, $35M deal because it creates payroll certainty for you, and because if he becomes a poor man's Jose Altuve when he's 25, you have him at $7M a year for the next 4 years, and not the $12M to $18M he might otherwise cost.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I am so impressed with Luis Arraez. How anyone could watch what Arraez has done and not be completely impressed is beyond me. His plate discipline has rivaled Mauer's at his peak. I don't think he should be pushed to add power--this guy is Tony Gwynn not Brian Dozier. If healthy he should be batting first for the Twins for a long time. I think batting titles and maybe even .400 should be his goal--not trying to change who he is to hit a couple extra home runs. Maybe I'm crazy but I think we could be looking a guy who has a chance to be an all time great hitter of the baseball.

I agree. You know, I remember in the off season when many were crying about the Twins not having high OBP guys as table setters. Well here is one and he has done it for half a season. So what do people do? Criticize his fielding/range/arm and say he is not that great.  Are Minnesota fans the only ones that are this negative? No. Philly fans once booed Santa.

 

 

[Jham]

Incorrect. He will cost about $1.1M the next two years, but if we assume he will continue to hit above .300 with an OBP in the .360 to .380 range, he will likely get somewhere around $20M in his 3 arb years (say $4M, $7M, and $10M as not unreasonable numbers). That's $21M for 5 years, after which he would be a free agent--the first two years of that deal would at that point surely by $10M-$12M a year. In this scenario, he would be following Kris Bryant (3 years at the minimum, FA after 6 years). If he has three more years after this one of team control, the story does change a little bit.

 

5 more years of control--somewhere in the neighborhood of $45M over the next 7 years

6 more years of control--somewhere in the neighborhood of $33M over the next 7 years

 

You sign him to a 7 year, $35M deal because it creates payroll certainty for you, and because if he becomes a poor man's Jose Altuve when he's 25, you have him at $7M a year for the next 4 years, and not the $12M to $18M he might otherwise cost.

He'll almost certainly be a "Super Two" and eligible for arbitration after next season. which means those numbers may be even higher. Edited September 18, 2019 by Jham

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

He'll almost certainly be a "Super Two" and eligible for arbitration after next season. which means those numbers may be even higher.

 

As I understand it, Super 2 means you become arbitration eligible for the season after you achieve two years of service time.  As Arraez cannot hit that mark next year (he will in all likelihood finish with 1 point something), he should have 2 years of pre-arbitration left.  But if he wins a batting title in either of the next two years, that first arbitration number for his age 25 season might be more than the $4M I threw out, meaning the hypothetical $7M and $10M would be more too.

 

You take risk signing Arraez to an extension now.  But you take risk by not doing it too.  And I personally would rather the Twins take the risk of a small (relatively) overpay to a league average player than watch a perennial all-star play for someone else because the Twins didn't want to pay an extra $10M to $20M over 5-6 years.

[yarnivek1972]

He'll almost certainly be a "Super Two" and eligible for arbitration after next season. which means those numbers may be even higher.

Hard to say. I’d guess no. He didn’t debut until May 18. So, he should have about 130 days MLB service time after the season, give or take a few. It’s impossible to know what the threshold will be in two years. But the range is typically 2.124 to 2.144. So, Arraez is on the low end of that. And that’s if he doesn’t go down again. I wouldn’t expect a prolonged slump, but one could happen.