September 23, 20197 yr Not sure I buy the logic. Each division has two 90+ win teams. Of these, Cleveland has the weakest record. If they overtake the Twins, it will have to involve a lot of Twins losses, and the Twins might easily have a worse record than TB and Oak. Oakland might be about to overtake the Twins in number of wins. Said another way, the Twins' magic number relative to either of them is currently higher than for Cleveland.My point was that it will be quite hard for Cleveland to catch the Twins. It's even more unlikely that both Cleveland and Tampa catch the Twins. The more teams in play for the same position, the more unlikely it becomes that one will go ice cold while the rest get red hot and for it all to happen at the exact same time.
September 23, 20197 yr My point was that it will be quite hard for Cleveland to catch the Twins. It's even more unlikely that both Cleveland and Tampa catch the Twins. The more teams in play for the same position, the more unlikely it becomes that one will go ice cold while the rest get red hot and for it all to happen at the exact same time.Because the Twins are so close to clinching, it would require a lot of losses by them. That makes the Magic Number they have against the other teams more correlated than if we were further out from season's end. It occurs to me that the same logic, that more is better, was behind the financial collapse triggered in part by bundled mortgages that individually were sketchy investments but thought to be safer when in a big group.
September 23, 20197 yr My point was that it will be quite hard for Cleveland to catch the Twins. It's even more unlikely that both Cleveland and Tampa catch the Twins. The more teams in play for the same position, the more unlikely it becomes that one will go ice cold while the rest get red hot and for it all to happen at the exact same time. yeah, I was not sleeping easy until we sept that double header... they have a 3 game lead and a cake schedule. Yes... it's feasibly possible... but I'd be a bit surprised. They have to play .500 ball this week to take the division. Cleveland and Tampa for all intents and purposes have to win out. It's doable, but highly unlikely.
September 23, 20197 yr yeah, I was not sleeping easy until we sept that double header... they have a 3 game lead and a cake schedule. Yes... it's feasibly possible... but I'd be a bit surprised. They have to play .500 ball this week to take the division. Cleveland and Tampa for all intents and purposes have to win out. It's doable, but highly unlikely. We actually have a 4-game lead. Six games to play, magic number is 3.Go Twins!
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