Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/11): Depleted Twins Fail to Match Up With Strasburg and Nationals

[Dantes929]

 

Maybe I worry too much, but to my way of thinking we do not have a spot clinched for the playoffs and certainly not the division championship. I have seen too many teams fold down the end to take anything for granted.

Reminds me of those game graphs showing odds of winning.    You see a team with a huge percentage to win with a 2 run lead but then a 3 run homer turns it on its head.    Twins playoffs chances were something like 8% a few years ago but a good stretch of winning can change everything and they got in fairly comfortably.  Of course odds are odds for a reason but thats all they are.       I have said all season I will be comfortable only when we are up X games with X-1 games to play.   That is still true but in my mind this is still going according to script from about a month ago.   I thought it would be close in mid September and then the strength of schedule would likely have the Twins prevail in the last 13 games.   The only real surprise to me is that we are still ahead 4 games right now.   I thought it would be closer to even but to counteract that good result I thought we would be much healthier.  .    Championships aren't supposed to be easy.   

[yarnivek1972]

How does Garver not hit anywhere in that 8th inning?

How does he not start given the rest of the lineup?

[howeda7]

 

The best thing that could happen to us today would be a rain out. That would put Gibson, Odo and Berrios in line for the Cleveland series and move the AAA starter/bullpen game to Chicago. It would also give another day to all of the injured guys - Kepler, Cron, Sano, Cave, Rosario, Cruz , did I miss anybody?

 

Bottom line - C'MON RAIN!!

Supposedly it's up to the Twins until they start and it's not supposed to stop raining until 9. Having to play an extra game on 9/30 would suck, but there's a pretty decent chance it won't need to be played for either team, and if it needs to be played only for the Nats sake, we can run our line-up from last night out there. I'd give it until like 7:30 and then call it.

Edited September 12, 2019 by howeda7

[yarnivek1972]

His usage this entire year has been mind boggling. Seriously.

Garver missed two weeks in May but has otherwise been healthy. He’s going to finish the year with fewer than 375 PA. Keep in mind that when he does start, he is most likely to bat 1st, 2nd or 5th.

 

Miguel Sano missed the first six weeks of the season, rarely bats higher than 5th and already has more than 375 PA.

 

If Garver isn’t comfortable at first base, that is on the Twins, because he needs to play there a lot on days when he isn’t catching.

 

Garver has a 159 w/RC, which would be 4th in the AL if he had the PA to qualify, just ahead of Nelson Cruz snd a .410 w/OBA, which would be 3rd, also ahead of Cruz. With more PA he would likely be in serious consideration for league MVP given the position he plays. He is putting up Piazza type numbers and is considerably better defensively than Piazza ever was.

[h2oface]

 

Eddie Rosario after last night now has a 99 wRC+, and is only worth 0.9 WAR, due to being the 10th worst defensive outfielder in the game.  His OBP is under .300, and his supposed strength (big moments) is also eroding, as he's down to a 103 wRC+ in high leverage.  He hasn't had a monthly OPS above .800 since June (and even that was .810).  Either Eddie is hurt, or he needs to be dropped to 8th or 9th in the order now.

 

If nothing else.... to send him a message and light a fire under his......

 

And........ what is Rosario doing in right field, now, anyway. It just makes for a further unstable outfield. Not only in right field unstable, but so is left. I know he has played several games there, but he is now a left fielder. How quickly our outfield turned into a weakness instead of a strength.

Edited September 12, 2019 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

I agree but have one question. Could Garver keep up this level of production or something close if he got 550 PAs instead of 375? Maybe the rest is one of the reasons he's been so productive. 

 Only one way to find the answer that question...... and the extras shouldn't be behind the plate.

Edited September 12, 2019 by h2oface

[Mike Sixel]

I agree but have one question. Could Garver keep up this level of production or something close if he got 550 PAs instead of 375? Maybe the rest is one of the reasons he's been so productive.

Even if he dropped twenty points he'd still be more valuable than not playing at all... Maybe even more. That also doesn't explain the lack of pinch at bats....

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Even if he dropped twenty points he'd still be more valuable than not playing at all... Maybe even more. That also doesn't explain the lack of pinch at bats....

 

I agree with this.  I think I would rather have a .900 OPS player for 600 PA's than a 1.000 OPS player for 450 PA's.  Also, to Mike's point, there is absolutely zero reason with Castro and Astudillo on the roster that Garver shouldn't be pinch-hitting every game he's not starting.

[ChuckKnobluntz]

Time to make space in the line-up for Garver! Let's see him at first base.

[howeda7]

 

I agree but have one question. Could Garver keep up this level of production or something close if he got 550 PAs instead of 375? Maybe the rest is one of the reasons he's been so productive. 

His HR/AB is not sustainable, it would have him hitting like 53 with 600 AB's. But even if it dropped quite a bit, he's still more valuable hitting 40 HR over 500 AB's than 33 in 375.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree with this. I think I would rather have a .900 OPS player for 600 PA's than a 1.000 OPS player for 450 PA's. Also, to Mike's point, there is absolutely zero reason with Castro and Astudillo on the roster that Garver shouldn't be pinch-hitting every game he's not starting.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting 600 PA for Garver.

 

Frankly, 450-475 sounds about right. That’s 80-100 more than he will get this year. Even if he hadn’t missed two weeks, he likely would have only gotten 30 or so more PA than he will.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I don’t think anyone is suggesting 600 PA for Garver.

Frankly, 450-475 sounds about right. That’s 80-100 more than he will get this year. Even if he hadn’t missed two weeks, he likely would have only gotten 30 or so more PA than he will.

 

I wasn't suggesting it for Garver, I was giving an example of of where 90% of the production but in 133% of the PA's is a positive thing.