The Twins are still up five games on the Indians, and we are almost halfway through the month of September. The Twins go against two great starters the rest of this series, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them lose the series 2-1. However, they did exactly what they needed to do last night to set themselves up for a victory.

 

The Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg (16-6, 3.50 ERA, 222 K's) vs Martin Perez (10-6, 4.75 ERA, 121 K's)

 

This is the first time that Strasburg will have pitched in Target Field, and it will be a treat for the fans there, and watching on TV. Strasburg is one of the best in the game when he is healthy, and that is what he has done so far this year. He makes opponents swing and miss which you can conclude from the strikeout numbers, and doesn't give up a lot of hard contact. This is a good measuring stick for a playoff series, as the next two arms that Nats throw are playoff caliber arms. Perez was fantastic his last time on the bump against the Red Sox, allowing only one run which was a solo shot to the Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts. I expect both pitchers to throw the ball well and have a low scoring affair. 

 

The Lineups:

 

Twins

 

LF Luis Arraez L

SS J. Polanco S
DH Nelson Cruz R
RF E. Rosario L
1B W. Astudillo R
3B E. Adrianza S
CF LaMonte Wade L
2B J. Schoop R
C Jason Castro L

 

Nationals

 

SS Trea Turner R

RF Adam Eaton L
3B A. Rendon R
LF Juan Soto L
DH H. Kendrick R
1B R. Zimmerman R
2B Brian Dozier R
C Yan Gomes R
CF V. Robles R

 

It is hard to say what the Twins best lineup looks like at this point with all the injuries and September call ups they are currently working with, but I think this is probably a top four lineup the Twins can run out there at this point in time. It is interesting to see Rosario man right field again, a position that I wish he would work in full time with the arm that he is working with. I like Astudillo, Wade, and Arraez against a pitcher like Strasburg that relies on strikeouts. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. Former Twin Brian Dozier draws the start at second base tonight after not getting into the game last night. Perez will need to work his way through the middle of the order smoothly to provide another quality start, as Rendon and Soto are one of the best 3-4 combos in the entire league.

 

Mills Moments

1. Playoff Rotation

It is very interesting to see what the Twins will do now with the Pineda news that came out a few days ago. I believe game one starter will be Jose Berrios no matter what happens over the next few weeks, followed by Jake Odorizzi. I am confident in both of those arms. However, my confidence waivers a LOT after those two. Gibson is just returning from his IL stint, and Perez hasn't been great and I was excited to see him come out of the bullpen. I wonder if there is a chance we will see a piggyback start where Trevor May or another bullpen arm starts the game throwing two innings followed by Perez who will need to get through four ideally. Just a food for thought.

2. Pay Pineda Now

Now is the perfect time for an extension to Michael Pineda. He was just busted for using a banned substance, and will miss around 40 games next year. Combine that with the fact that he is just a few years removed from TJ, and he is perfect to extend. His price should be around 12M annually, and I'd be willing to pay that if I were the Twins. Ideally he would be the Twins #3 starter next year, maybe even a number four depending on the development and moves made this offseason.

 

This Day in History: 2010 - Jim Thome connects for career homer No. 587 to pass Hall of Famer Frank Robinson for eighth place on the all-time career list. The Twins DH's historic round-tripper, which he blasts in the top of the twelfth inning at Progressive Field, is the lone run scored in Minnesota's 1-0 victory over Cleveland

 

Pick to Click - Jason Castro goes yard

 

Go Twins!!!

Disagree on the Pineda extension, personally. Although it certainly didn’t stop them from extending Polanco.

 

Hope they play tonight.

Still no Kepler, Gonzalez, Sano, Cave, also no Cron or Garver. Pitching matchup of Perez vs. Strasburg.

 

I ask again, WHAT COULD GO WRONG?????

 

Still no Kepler, Gonzalez, Sano, Cave, also no Cron or Garver. Pitching matchup of Perez vs. Strasburg.

 

I ask again, WHAT COULD GO WRONG?????

 

That is a lot of good hitters. Probably the bench lineup is better than the starting lineup. 

It probably only occurred by chance due to all the injuries, but it sure seems like the Twins have a high-contact offense against Strasburg and his strikeout arsenal, I like it. The top three guys will hopefully eat through his pitch count early.

 

Also, a nice 3rd inning rain delay would be excellent strategy. Washington would surely love to ride Strasburg as long as possible while the Twins probably don't mind bullpenning early with Perez in there.

Even if he has to stand in the dugout to swing, GarvSauce is my pick to click. 

This game is winnable. 

If we assume that the Twins will go 7-6 in their final 13 games (2-2 against the Sox, 3-3 against the Royals, 2-1 against the Tigers) and the Indians go 10-2 in their final 12 games (3-0 against the Tigers, 2-1 against the Phillies, 3-0 against the Sox, 2-1 against the Nats), then the Twins magic number is actually only 4.  Get 2 of 3 in Cleveland this weekend, and in this scenario, it's all over.

 

Putting it another way, if Cleveland goes 12-4 in their final 16 games, the Twins only need to go 9-9 in their final 18 to win the division.  Every game Cleveland falls short of those 12 wins is one less win the Twins need.  If Cleveland goes 10-6 (say a loss to the Twins, Sox, Tigers, Phillies, and two to the Nats), and the Twins only need to go 7-11.

 

I said it almost two months ago, and I'll say it again--the Twins will clinch the division after play ends on September 22, with 6 games left in the season.

Garver should be at first over Astudillo. If he isn’t comfortable over there, the Twins have only themselves to blame.

 

I said it almost two months ago, and I'll say it again--the Twins will clinch the division after play ends on September 22, with 6 games left in the season.

 

... after a walk-off home run that Mitch Garver hits off Ian Kennedy while I'm downing my sixth Coors Light of the afternoon.

Strasburg is obviously very good but he's also given up at least 4 runs in 9 of his 29 starts.

 

If he has a slightly off night, who knows what might happen?

This lineup, and with Perez starting, has exactly ZERO chance of beating the Nationals and Strasburg tonight!

 

(Nobody can say I didn't try to do my part.   )

 

This lineup, and with Perez starting, has exactly ZERO chance of beating the Nationals and Strasburg tonight!

 

(Nobody can say I didn't try to do my part.   )

Can you be a bit more precise?

Can you be a bit more precise?

Actually, it’s non-zero...but if I have to explain, the magic doesn’t work.

Be interesting to see if Mr. Dozier still swings at balls up around his shoulders.

Actually, it’s non-zero...but if I have to explain, the magic doesn’t work.

I'm still confused.

 

_{^{/ no I'm not, but I'm worried you said too much and am trying to add an anti-anti-anti-jinx.}}

 

This lineup, and with Perez starting, has exactly ZERO chance of beating the Nationals and Strasburg tonight!

 

(Nobody can say I didn't try to do my part.   )

My beer mug is 1/3 full.

Woof. I know keeping Garver rested has paid off, but with where we are and no day games to worry about, how do you not start him a few games in a row right now? And if Cron was well enough to late in the game last night, he should be in there as well.

Yeah, kinda weird that Garver isn't in the lineup. Dude has been on fire lately. I understand letting Castro catch, but Garver definitely should be at 1b.

Looks like they'll play tonight. They might get the game in on Thursday, too. Hard to believe with all the rain.

Need at least five solid innings from Perez tonight.

Come on, Martín, hit your spots.

Great start, Perez  

Not the start we needed against a good opponent.

 

I've been more of a critic of Polanco's arm than his range, but I seriously thought that was a grounder an above average fielding SS should reach. Maybe even average SS, given the skill around the league at that position.

What's the need to hold a guy close to second with a bum knee? Come on Twins coaches, you're better than that.

Couple of grounders found their way through, but that happens. The sharp double followed by the semi-intentional walk are what account for the two runs.

Welp, not the start the Twins needed from Perez. Time for the bats to come alive.

Looks like it's just you and I, @ashbury lol

"Gracias, Ehire." -- Martín Pérez

More bad luck than good in the first. Eaton's ball was perfectly placed, more than hard hit, Soto's single just out of Polanco's reach and and 14 hopper from Zimmerman. Dozier hit the ball on the nose.